Could Sinn Fein actually run a country ?

weldoninhio

smelly sock wrote: »

Just waiting for the ira to be brought up.

You must be sick no one has and are instead factually ripping apart their fairytale economics, which you have no reply to. Damned facts, eh?

Maewyn Succat

imme wrote: »

So, no army for the north of Ireland, you couldn't make it up.

They will supply their own army.

Yurt2

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

Abolishing taxes for all but the super rich won’t work folks, sorry but that’s the reality.

Is this in the SF manifesto? Not a SF voter but I'm willing to give them a fair crack of the whip on this. You're making stuff up.

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

The problems with the health system and homelessness are not new and not of FGs making and voting in a new government won’t make them magically disappear.

A little bit of logical thinking please.

They've been in power for a decade, in all honesty, you have to make them carry the can for these problems that have become markedly worse during their tenure. I'd accept it if they were making serious inroads into these problems, but the evidence is they're not and to be frank, I believe not without reason, they'd get worse in another FG led government.

francie81

Usually what happens come polling day is that everything that went before is forgotten about and we tend to go with the flow.

crisco10

Yurt! wrote: »

Is this in the SF manifesto? Not a SF voter but I'm willing to give them a fair crack of the whip on this. You're making stuff up.

It doesn't say it explicitly, but it is pretty close:

Sinn Fein Manifest page 103 wrote:

Sinn Féin priorities:
» Making all income below €30,000 exempt from USC, benefitting all workers.
This will mean no USC is paid on the first €30,000 you earn

» Abolishing the Local Property Tax (LPT), replacing it with direct Exchequer
funding for local authorities. The LPT hits low and middle incomes and, for many,
acts as a tax on debt as they struggle with negative equity or high mortgage
interest payments

» Increasing the Earned Income Credit for the Self-Employed to €1,650, a promise
Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil failed to keep. Together with making the first €30,000
earned exempt from USC, we will lift the tax burden on self-employed workers
on modest incomes

» Ensuring that those who benefit most from our economy pay their fair share,
funding our public services and protecting the public finances. We will introduce
a 5% levy on individual incomes above €140,000, and remove tax credits from
individual incomes above €140,000, tapered at a rate of 2.5% for every €1,000
above €100,000

» Abolishing the Special Assignee Relief Programme (SARP). SARP is a tax break
given to the richest multinational employees but denied to ordinary workers
and families.

the first 3 are all tax breaks for low income workers.
The last 2 are tax increases for those earning 100k plus.

AudreyHepburn

Yurt! wrote: »

Is this in the SF manifesto? Not a SF voter but I'm willing to give them a fair crack of the whip on this. You're making stuff up.





They've been in power for a decade, in all honesty, you have to make them carry the can for these problems that have become markedly worse during their tenure. I'd accept it if they were making serious inroads into these problems, but the evidence is they're not and to be frank, I believe not without reason, they'd get worse in another FG led government.

Some of the can yes but people are acting as if they’ve reduced the country to a third world like state and that they somehow created homelessness and deliberately brought down the health service.

Like I said a bit of logical thinking is required here.

And if you seriously believe they sit in Leinster house all day staring at walls and scratching their backside you need to have your head examined.

friendlyfun

Iscreamkone wrote: »

The economy is booming.
That will not happen under SF
Then where will they get the money to give their supporters

In fact there’s not enough money available now to pay for their leftie schemes

If only we had 13 billion euro laying around hmm.....

SEPT 23 1989

I don't know how the Gardai and defensive forces would react to it

Yurt2

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

Some of the can yes but people are acting as if they’ve reduced the country to a third world like state and that they somehow created homelessness and deliberately brought down the health service.

Like I said a bit of logical thinking is required here.

And if you seriously believe they sit in Leinster house all day staring at walls and scratching their backside you need to have your head examined.

On the first point, no one is suggesting that they brought us to third-world status, you're being factitious and not exactly engaging in a logical line of argument yourself . However, people are well aware that we can do much much better, and on a scorecard, you'd have to give them a D on these major issues. If you're plumber exacerbated a problem in your house instead of at least make a decent fist of fixing it, you'd fire him.


On the last point, I don't know where you're going with that, I never alluded to them scratching their ar*e, although I've had cause to be in the company of TDs more than once professionally - and I would question their commitment to a solving certain issues brought up in this thread.

Gretas Gonna Get Ya!

spurious wrote: »

If it would kill them for good off as a party in Ireland this would almost be worth it. It wouldn't be too long before their ineptitude would show.

So you don't think they'd do a good job, but might be "worth it" if they got in... so you can kill off a party you don't like? :rolleyes:

And what about the lives of people in the country in the meantime? You'd be prepared to sacrifice them, if it killed off SF?

Looks like you might be one of those snobs I was referring to... people like you, are why SF will continue to get more votes. Your indifference to the average person on the street.

friendlyfun

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

Some of the can yes but people are acting as if they’ve reduced the country to a third world like state and that they somehow created homelessness and deliberately brought down the health service.

Like I said a bit of logical thinking is required here.

And if you seriously believe they sit in Leinster house all day staring at walls and scratching their backside you need to have your head examined.

My friend posted a photo on Facebook of his daughter who was brought to hospital. She was given two plastic chairs to sleep on in a corridor. FG have been in power since 2011 and have failed to ameliorate this issue. This is in one of the richest countries in the world. People are pissed off for the simple reason Ireland is NOT a third world country yet we have this situation.

All the FG ministers don't care because they'll never have any family members on trolleys.

gmisk

friendlyfun wrote: »

If only we had 13 billion euro laying around hmm.....

I think this has been done to death...but I'd say you know that money is not ours...it would be split with rest of EU if the money was ever available.
Tbh I am more annoyed at the government spending 7 million on legal fees fighting on apples side...

Jinglejangle69

friendlyfun wrote: »

If only we had 13 billion euro laying around hmm.....

Its not our money.

When will people do some research and realose this.

The EU are gunning to get Ireland to higher the 12.5% rate so they can get their hands on the multinationals coming to their countries instead of Ireland.

Hence them coming out with this lie, its to try and get them to leave Ireland.

Anyone with a bit of sense will see we need to keep these here and stay in their side.

That's the truth, it might not go down but its a harsh world and we need to be strong for the 600,000 employed in these companies.

For Forks Sake

smelly sock wrote: »

Stats just dont paint a picture dude.



Mortgage interest rates sky high.

Current interest rates are between 3.1-3.7%.


A small bit of history for you....

gmisk

For Forks Sake wrote: »

Current interest rates are between 3.1-3.7%.


A small bit of history for you....

What are our current interest rates compared to the rest of Europe? Average 1.7...ours is 3.
I think we are the highest in the whole of Europe bar Greece.

spurious

Gretas Gonna Get Ya! wrote:

And what about the lives of people in the country in the meantime? You'd be prepared to sacrifice them, if it killed off SF?

You couldnt make this up! Sinn Fein worrying about peoples lives? When did that happen? Are you under 20?

joe40

No matter how this election pans out Sinn Fein won't be "running the county" The best outcome from a Sinn Fein perspective is as a junior coalition partner.
I think that is the chance/opportunity some people are willing to give Sinn Fein.
I will give credit to Fine Gael for good performance in relation to Brexit, Simon Coveney and Helen McEntee came across as very capable politicians on the world stage.
Domestically there are issues so a change may be no harm

AudreyHepburn

friendlyfun wrote: »

My friend posted a photo on Facebook of his daughter who was brought to hospital. She was given two plastic chairs to sleep on in a corridor. FG have been in power since 2011 and have failed to ameliorate this issue. This is in one of the richest countries in the world. People are pissed off for the simple reason Ireland is NOT a third world country yet we have this situation.

All the FG ministers don't care because they'll never have any family members on trolleys.

That’s horrible and I hope she’s ok now.

I don’t deny we have serious problems to deal with but deluding yourself that Mary Lou is going to ride into power on a white horse and magically fix things isn’t the answer.

The problems we have are bigger than any one person or party.

LineOfBeauty

It's the first election I'll vote in and I have no previous leaning towards any one party because so much of Irish politics is still coloured by the civil war rather than left vs right. When I was leaving secondary school and considering college it was at a time when the bottom had fallen out of the economy and there wasn't a job to be had, an awful time for anybody but especially someone 18/19/20 with no job experience and no hope of getting any. That Fianna Fail finds itself back in the running to be elected to government so soon after nearly destroying the country is horrible. Fine Gael stopped the bleeding, but the discrepancy in wealth, the have's and the have not's, is huge and seems to only be growing. Things like owning a house have never been more unrealistic for a lot of people and those left to rent are at the mercy of greedy landlords.

From that perspective, I can see why Sinn Fein have a popularity among Uni students and also the working class. They offer a bit of hope at a time when, maybe more than ever, so many feel disillusioned. To have come through the recession and this is the best they can hope for? It's depressing. So ye, it'll be SF for me on Saturday.

For Forks Sake

gmisk wrote: »

What are our current interest rates compared to the rest of Europe?

Fairly succinct list of reasons here: https://www.bonkers.ie/blog/mortgages/heres-why-mortgage-rates-in-ireland-are-so-high/

Latest figures from the Central Bank show that the average interest rate on a new mortgage in Ireland is 3.01%. Although low for Ireland by historical standards, and a drop from 3.21% in July 2018, this compares to an average rate of 1.78% across the Eurozone and a rate of less than 1.00% in Finland - a country with a similar population to us.

To put this into perspective, according to the Banking & Payments Federation Ireland, the average first-time buyer mortgage is now around €225,000. This means a typical first-time buyer who’s borrowing that amount over 30 years will pay almost €143 a month more for their mortgage compared to the Eurozone average, or over €1,700 a year.

So why are we paying more?

1. Home repossessions
The level of home repossessions in Ireland is incredibly low by international standards. In most European countries a bank will take back ownership of a property within the space of a year or so if the loan has gone bad.

This isn't the case in Ireland where the number of repossessions, even in cases where the mortgage hasn't been repaid in years, remains negligible due to the length and complexity of the process and the legal and political impediments faced by banks

And while some people might feel that this is right approach to take towards people who get into financial difficulty, it does mean mortgage lending is far riskier in Ireland than in other European countries and therefore the interest rate we're charged is higher.

It also means fewer banks are interested in doing business here. Which brings us on to our next point...

2. Lack of competition
There is still a lack of competition in the Irish mortgage market as it remains heavily concentrated in the hands of a few main banks; mainly AIB, Bank of Ireland, and to a lesser extent Ulster Bank. Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB) even recently referred to it as a ‘quasi-monopoly’.

And although competition in the market has heated up in recent times, it's still below where it should be and this has lead to higher rates.

More competition would help bring down rates, but there’s anecdotal evidence that foreign lenders are being put off entering Ireland due to the riskier nature of lending here and the aforementioned issues around repossessions.

This key issue around risk and repossssions also leads us to our next point...

3. Irish banks must hold excess capital
Holding capital, such as cash, means a bank has assets which can absorb losses if a recession hits and people can't repay their loans.

A lack of capital was a big reason Irish banks got into so much trouble during the crash, so regulators like the ECB now police banks more heavily to ensure lenders set aside enough capital against their loans, with riskier loans needing more capital.

Because of the recession, banks in Ireland have a large number of loans on their books which are either in arrears or are not being repaid at all (often referred to as non-performing loans). In fact the level of non-performing loans with Irish banks is way in execess of what you'd find in other European countries. And we already know that a bank will have difficulty repossessing a property in Ireland if the loan isn't performing.

So what this means is that banks here have to set aside far greater levels of capital than banks in Europe because lending here is more risky. Indeed banks in Ireland need to hold around three times the amount of capital as the European average, according to a recent report by Goodbody stockbrokers. Put another way, Irish banks must hold €50 of capital for every €1,000 of mortgage lending versus just €16 in Europe and the UK.

Holding all this capital in reserve means banks have less money to generate profits elsewhere so this puts pressure on them to have higher mortgage rates and higher margins.

4. We’re not comparing like-with-like
As mentioned previously recent data from the Central Bank shows that the average mortgage rate in the Eurozone was 1.78% in January.

However the average APRC (annual percentage rate of charge), which includes any set-up fees or administration charges that have to be paid by borrowers, and which are common in many European countries, is about 30 basis points higher at 2.11%. In reality, this should be the interest rate against which Irish rates are compared.

So what extra mortgage fees do banks charge here?

In general none.

Irish banks might charge a high rate of interest but they charge few (or none) of the set-up and admin fees that banks in other countries commonly charge.

5. Cashback offers
Many of the Irish banks offer cashback offers.

Permanent TSB offers 2%, ESB and Bank of Ireland offer up to 3% cashback, while Ulster Bank will offer €1,500 towards your legal fees.

These cashback offers obviously cost the banks money. For example a €300,000 mortgage would get you up to €9,000 cash with Bank of Ireland or EBS after five years.

These types of incentives are not available in most other European countries and, were they not available in Ireland, would probably lead to lower headline rates. Indeed it’s telling that the two banks which offer the lowest rates in Ireland (Ulster Bank and KBC) offer little or nothing in the form of cashback incentives.

According to the same report by Goodbody stockbrokers, Irish mortgage rates are 1.7 times the Eurozone average. But when you factor in the cashback costs as well as the extra fee income many European banks generate through set-up and admin fees, this falls to 1.25 times the average.

6. Tracker mortgages
Irish banks also have a large number of tracker mortgages on their books, which were popular during the days of the boom.

Before the recession, banks could access money more cheaply and could survive on the 0.5% to 1% margin many trackers work off.

However in today’s climate these mortgages make far less money for the banks, so they’re recouping their losses by charging new customers higher rates.

However claims by some that trackers are actually loss-making for banks appear wide of the mark.

7. Market size
Ireland is a small country. Compared to France or Germany there is a far smaller mortgage market so lenders here don’t have the same economies of scale as elsewhere. This impacts on the rates we're charged too, but probably not as much as the issues above.

The bottom line
Nobody is denying that mortgage rates in Ireland are above the European average. However, when you look at the particulars of the Irish mortgage market you can see why this is the case. And by many business metrics, such as looking at the return on equity (ROE), the level of profits Irish banks are generating at present are average at best.

TuringBot47

friendlyfun wrote: »

My friend posted a photo on Facebook of his daughter who was brought to hospital. She was given two plastic chairs to sleep on in a corridor. FG have been in power since 2011 and have failed to ameliorate this issue. This is in one of the richest countries in the world.

FG inherited a catastrophic mess from FF, enormous crippling national debt.
Running a government is like running a household where you're up to your eyes in debt, there's limitations on what you can do. Sometimes just putting your head down and working through the debt and managing the budget as best you can is all you can do.

Increasing the tax base to include everyone is fair since we've an overly generous welfare system that means that long term layabouts have no incentive to do a days work. Sinn Fein targets those disgruntled voters who want more free handouts and they'll bleed the real workers for it.

seamus

The healthcare crisis?

Been in crisis for 20+ years. FG are just yet another government who failed to make a dent in it.

The mortgage arrears crisis?

Numbers of people in mortgage arrears has been dropping consistently since 2012. There's a large cohort in long-term arrears, but they're a statistical outlier; a hangover from the FF crash. I wouldn't call it a "crisis".

Homeless at at least 10000.

And beginning to drop. It's now under 10,000. I don't agree with how the current government has handled the issue, but at least be genuine and get your facts right.

Insurance costs are mental.

That's not really a governmental issue, it's a more fundamental issue in our legal system. No party has anything in their plans that would have dealt with this, or even will deal with this. So it's fair to say it's an issue, it's not fair to claim that it would be any different if anyone else was in power.

Mortgage interest rates sky high.

Mortgage interest rates are on the floor. They're not high at all.

My point overall that there's a lot of reaching one needs to do to convince yourself that the current government have been singularly bad. A lot of issues that you have to pretend are new, or are bigger than they actually are.

Taken on a whole they've done a better job than most of the previous governments and in less than a decade brought the country back from having a €20bn/year economic deficit and unemployment of 15%+, to having a small budget surplus and full employment.

super_furry

I still don't believe that Sinn Fein could successfully run the country, because they can't even run an election.

They've monumentally screwed themselves this election by only running 42 candidates. Their support is surging, public sentiment is with them, they're seeing polling numbers like never before and they have utterly hamstrung themselves by running half the number of candidates as Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.

It's a massive failure of their organising committee and massive questions need to be asked of them in the aftermath of this election.

Yurt2

AudreyHepburn wrote: »

That’s horrible and I hope she’s ok now.

I don’t deny we have serious problems to deal with but deluding yourself that Mary Lou is going to ride into power on a white horse and magically fix things isn’t the answer.

The problems we have are bigger than any one person or party.

No one is suggesting that Mary Lou has all the answers, that's hyperbole. What appears to be happening is that good 80% of the electorate have come to conclusion that Leo and his gang don't have the answers.


I have next to no faith that FG will significantly improve the problems in housing, health and and various other quality of life issues. Supporters are attempting to give them way too much credit for strong external economic headwinds and on the other side of the coin minimize their poor performance on issues where they actually have the steering wheel.


I get it, that's politics, that's electioneering - but to me and many many others, the case for another FG government is very very weak.

ednwireland

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

SF are going to build houses for 65k a pop and retrofit old ones for 5k a pop. That’s how good they are with money.

yeh 5k to put in a new bathroom last year 8k to rip out two ceiling in an old house and re-insulate, 2.5k to put a new boiler - no other heating changes.all in the last 2 years

not sure what youre retrofitting for 5k

im not sure what part of their manifesto is costed but some of it is ludicrous

Uriel.

Yurt! wrote: »

You're the one stating the problem. Put up the scale of it. Pure conjecture.

No I'm not.
You said there was no problem, attributing it to the low unemployment rate. I'm asking if disability/illness related unemployment is included in that.
You don't seem to know the answer. Therefore your statement is unproven. Rather than answer the question or say you can't answer it is to engage in some form of misdirection. You sound like a shinner.

Maewyn Succat

friendlyfun wrote: »

If only we had 13 billion euro laying around hmm.....

We don't. This has been explained in many many different ways but people don't seem to be able to comprehend it.

Yurt2

ednwireland wrote: »

yeh 5k to put in a new bathroom last year 8k to rip out two ceiling in an old house and re-insulate, 2.5k to put a new boiler - no other heating changes.all in the last 2 years

not sure what youre retrofitting for 5k

im not sure what part of their manifesto is costed but some of it is ludicrous

Is the 65k figure actually in their manifesto or something someone on this thread made up?

Tenzor07

Mary-Lou is carrying SF very well, certainly the most convincing of all the party leaders.

M.Martin was one of Bertie's boys..doesn't have any new ideas..
Varadkar was never elected as Taoiseach and his party is deeply unpopular..


If SF are going to get into government they may crash the economy, but will just be in a different way than FFFG, so if nothing else SF may shake up the political order in this country at least...


If FFFG get back into power with any sort of a decent mandate, they will bring back water taxes, increase property taxes, carbon taxes, and raise pension ages..

SF will just raise income taxes on high earners/business owners - those who provide employment.

Yurt2

Uriel. wrote: »

No I'm not.
You said there was no problem,

I invite you to reread my post. I said no such thing.

You're making the case that there is a significant amount of people on disability that shouldn't be. I'm all ears, how many is it? Percentages, hard numbers.

If the figure was one, I'm not defending it - but put up the figures. I'm not ars*d looking because it wasn't me making the claim. It very much looks like you don't know either, yet you're happy to introduce it to the thread with no evidence.