Could Sinn Fein actually run a country ?

SafeSurfer

tipptom wrote: »

FF will beat FG by about 8 seats.

SF will hit about 26 seats

labour about 9 seats

Greens 5 seats

FF or FG will not be able to persuade enough independents etc to cobble up a government as they realise they are becoming toxic and their old die hard voters dyeing out after this election.

Any politician with any eye to the future election would be mad to touch them.

Confidence and supply again.

As you were!
LG

Predicting FF will beat FG by about 8 seats is of little use. That could mean FG on 10 and FF on 18 or FG on 52 and FF on 60.
Also think Greens will get more than 5 seats.

bladespin

SafeSurfer wrote: »

Also think Greens will get more than 5 seats.

Really hope not, they're further off the trolley than SF.

JP Liz V1

FF are hoping to get Lab and GP in with them so I hope they get very few in

FF could do with a new leader

ednwireland

tipptom wrote: »

Confidence and supply again.

As you were!
LG

and we know that MM doesnt want to be the first FF leader to not be Taoiseach so he will cobble anydeal together no matter how short it lasts

ballsdeep69

they havn't gone away u know

saabsaab

The Greens will win 10 to 15 seats.

SafeSurfer

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

FF are hoping to get Lab and GP in with them so I hope they get very few in

FF could do with a new leader

Probably just one term as Taoiseach for Martin.

Idbatterim

found the below interesting, the SF surge seems to be from younger votes. Absolutely done in by this housing crisis and the massive wealth shift, that FG encourages, from the young, to the older. Many who inherited property or bought it for a pittance! I was always wondering how long it would take for the young to find their vote here! Great to hear the entrire debate, not be about the "im alright jack pensioners" for a change! I think the last few years has proven, we need change, not talk and the like FF will pay the price, if waffle is all that is delivered again!


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-surge-driven-by-younger-urban-voters-1.4164649

Although Sinn Féin has stuttered in recent days in response to the controversy over the murder of Paul Quinn, the party and its leader have ridden the wave of a mighty desire for change during this general election campaign, particularly from younger voters.

Last October, the party was polling at 14 per cent in the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI series .

By mid-January, this had jumped to 21 per cent; by end of last week, it had soared to 25 per cent.

The increases were driven by a surge in support for the party among younger urban voters, who has responded in unprecedented numbers to the Sinn Féin message and its leader.

That this has caught Sinn Féin as much by surprise as everyone else is neither here nor there, except in the sense that its modest pre-election expectations led to the party running too few candidates for its current level of support.

Look at the numbers. Sinn Féin has jumped from 17 per cent to 27 per cent among under 25s since October. Among 25-to-34 year olds, the party has risen from 23 to 32 per cent. And among 35-49 year olds, the jump has been massive – from 13 per cent to 30 per cent.

But the Sinn Féin appeal is not based just on a general message of change. While the “change” rhetoric appeals to key swing voters certainly – in a demographic that has become de-aligned from traditional party loyalties – it is also based on a mix of policies specifically designed to appeal to these voters.

Inevitable risks
So what has Sinn Féin done to attract the younger vote? And what would their programme mean for other groups – some of whom would be asked to pay more to fund extra spending – and for the economy, where the scale of change planned carries inevitable risks?

Sinn Féin’s housing policy is central to its approach – and it has sought to appeal directly to younger voters.

This strategy reflects a changing pattern of living in Ireland. We have moved from a nation of homeowners in the 1980s – where private rental was a temporary state – to one where the latest census showed 36 per cent of people were renting in urban areas. And to a society where the normal life cycle of home buying and paying off a mortgage seems to be breaking down.

By the 2016 census, the age at which more people owned a home than rented was 35 – as recently as 2006, it was 28. And only by age 41 did two thirds of people own rather than rent. With house prices and rents rising in the meantime, the age of average home-buying will have risen further – and so the group feeling trapped by higher rents has grown sharply and covers a wider age range. Many feel they will never afford to own their own home, no matter what tax incentives or help-to-buy schemes are offered.

Sinn Féin has targeted this group via policies aimed first at renters, including a three-year rent freeze and a tax credit offering an average of one month’s rent back. Its housing spokesman, Eoin Ó Broin, has also put forward a switch in the house-building programme to prioritise State-led building largely via local authorities.

Planning process
Its programme promises 100,000 “public homes on public land” over the next five years. Delivering on this would be a massive challenge given the scale of current local authority building, the shortage of construction workers at all levels, and the planning process. But the idea of the State providing those homes has clearly chimed with many of those “locked out” voters.

Sinn Féin also calls for bigger State involvement in other key areas for younger voters too – and here it may appeal also to those already owning a home. For exmaple, it believes that childcare should transition over a period into a “fully-fledged public service” with fees “slashed” by 66 per cent. It also calls for extended maternity and paternity leave.

The party – along with others – has also identified insurance as a key area for its target group, promising a reform programme and the abolition of the existing levies on non-life policies And its tax policies are firmly aimed at lower-paid voters – many of them also younger voters – centered on a proposal to abolish the USC charge on the first €30,000 of earnings.

The radical level of extra spending and these tax cuts mean the tax increases in the Sinn Féin manifesto are at a different level to any others – and are generally stacked on higher earners and big businesses.

These include hikes aimed at multinationals and the banks – though not SMEs – including a big hike in employee PRSI on incomes over €100,000.

Income tax credits
On income tax, the current income tax credits are to be phased out on incomes over €100,000 and a new 5 per cent level imposed on earnings over €140,000, bringing the marginal tax rate for this group to 57 per cent.

These plan raises two questions. First, can the extra tax revenues be achieved? And, secondly, what is the knock-on impact?

Business group IBEC has warned that these measures would have a “grave” impact on Ireland’s attraction for business investment – and its political opponents say that its plan would seriously endanger economic growth.

Under Sinn Féin’s strategy, a higher portion of the tax burden would fall on business and the higher earners, leading to potential volatility – as both groups are mobile – and narrowing of the tax base.

Sinn Féin proposes to narrow the base further by ditching the local property tax and arguing against any further rise in the carbon tax – though it does favour a new wealth tax and a hike in inheritance tax from 33 per cent to 36 per cent. The party insists that it plans to keep the exchequer in surplus.

It is impossible to be precise about what this mix of planned higher spending and higher taxes in some sectors would mean for growth, or the public finances in the long term.

A range of measures in the manifesto are specifically aimed at large multinationals – the bulk of which are from the US, who could change their tax and investment options in response to a dramatic change in government policy.

More change inevitably means higher risk – but for a group of younger voters who feel excluded from the current economic system, the risk may well feel worth taking.

FrancieBrady

JP Liz V1 wrote: »

FF are hoping to get Lab and GP in with them so I hope they get very few in

FF could do with a new leader

Had they put anyone else almost in as leader they'd be home and hosed. That cannot be lost on the party faithful.

Michael better pray for those higher seat numbers.

splinter65

Of course they could. Socialist parties have run loads of countries over the years.

Field east

Idbatterim wrote: »

found the below interesting, the SF surge seems to be from younger votes. Absolutely done in by this housing crisis and the massive wealth shift, that FG encourages, from the young, to the older. Many who inherited property or bought it for a pittance! I was always wondering how long it would take for the young to find their vote here! Great to hear the entrire debate, not be about the "im alright jack pensioners" for a change! I think the last few years has proven, we need change, not talk and the like FF will pay the price, if waffle is all that is delivered again!


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/sinn-f%C3%A9in-surge-driven-by-younger-urban-voters-1.4164649

Although Sinn Féin has stuttered in recent days in response to the controversy over the murder of Paul Quinn, the party and its leader have ridden the wave of a mighty desire for change during this general election campaign, particularly from younger voters.

Last October, the party was polling at 14 per cent in the Irish Times-Ipsos MRBI series .

By mid-January, this had jumped to 21 per cent; by end of last week, it had soared to 25 per cent.

The increases were driven by a surge in support for the party among younger urban voters, who has responded in unprecedented numbers to the Sinn Féin message and its leader.

That this has caught Sinn Féin as much by surprise as everyone else is neither here nor there, except in the sense that its modest pre-election expectations led to the party running too few candidates for its current level of support.

Look at the numbers. Sinn Féin has jumped from 17 per cent to 27 per cent among under 25s since October. Among 25-to-34 year olds, the party has risen from 23 to 32 per cent. And among 35-49 year olds, the jump has been massive – from 13 per cent to 30 per cent.

But the Sinn Féin appeal is not based just on a general message of change. While the “change” rhetoric appeals to key swing voters certainly – in a demographic that has become de-aligned from traditional party loyalties – it is also based on a mix of policies specifically designed to appeal to these voters.

Inevitable risks
So what has Sinn Féin done to attract the younger vote? And what would their programme mean for other groups – some of whom would be asked to pay more to fund extra spending – and for the economy, where the scale of change planned carries inevitable risks?

Sinn Féin’s housing policy is central to its approach – and it has sought to appeal directly to younger voters.

This strategy reflects a changing pattern of living in Ireland. We have moved from a nation of homeowners in the 1980s – where private rental was a temporary state – to one where the latest census showed 36 per cent of people were renting in urban areas. And to a society where the normal life cycle of home buying and paying off a mortgage seems to be breaking down.

By the 2016 census, the age at which more people owned a home than rented was 35 – as recently as 2006, it was 28. And only by age 41 did two thirds of people own rather than rent. With house prices and rents rising in the meantime, the age of average home-buying will have risen further – and so the group feeling trapped by higher rents has grown sharply and covers a wider age range. Many feel they will never afford to own their own home, no matter what tax incentives or help-to-buy schemes are offered.

Sinn Féin has targeted this group via policies aimed first at renters, including a three-year rent freeze and a tax credit offering an average of one month’s rent back. Its housing spokesman, Eoin Ó Broin, has also put forward a switch in the house-building programme to prioritise State-led building largely via local authorities.

Planning process
Its programme promises 100,000 “public homes on public land” over the next five years. Delivering on this would be a massive challenge given the scale of current local authority building, the shortage of construction workers at all levels, and the planning process. But the idea of the State providing those homes has clearly chimed with many of those “locked out” voters.

Sinn Féin also calls for bigger State involvement in other key areas for younger voters too – and here it may appeal also to those already owning a home. For exmaple, it believes that childcare should transition over a period into a “fully-fledged public service” with fees “slashed” by 66 per cent. It also calls for extended maternity and paternity leave.

The party – along with others – has also identified insurance as a key area for its target group, promising a reform programme and the abolition of the existing levies on non-life policies And its tax policies are firmly aimed at lower-paid voters – many of them also younger voters – centered on a proposal to abolish the USC charge on the first €30,000 of earnings.

The radical level of extra spending and these tax cuts mean the tax increases in the Sinn Féin manifesto are at a different level to any others – and are generally stacked on higher earners and big businesses.

These include hikes aimed at multinationals and the banks – though not SMEs – including a big hike in employee PRSI on incomes over €100,000.

Income tax credits
On income tax, the current income tax credits are to be phased out on incomes over €100,000 and a new 5 per cent level imposed on earnings over €140,000, bringing the marginal tax rate for this group to 57 per cent.

These plan raises two questions. First, can the extra tax revenues be achieved? And, secondly, what is the knock-on impact?

Business group IBEC has warned that these measures would have a “grave” impact on Ireland’s attraction for business investment – and its political opponents say that its plan would seriously endanger economic growth.

Under Sinn Féin’s strategy, a higher portion of the tax burden would fall on business and the higher earners, leading to potential volatility – as both groups are mobile – and narrowing of the tax base.

Sinn Féin proposes to narrow the base further by ditching the local property tax and arguing against any further rise in the carbon tax – though it does favour a new wealth tax and a hike in inheritance tax from 33 per cent to 36 per cent. The party insists that it plans to keep the exchequer in surplus.

It is impossible to be precise about what this mix of planned higher spending and higher taxes in some sectors would mean for growth, or the public finances in the long term.

A range of measures in the manifesto are specifically aimed at large multinationals – the bulk of which are from the US, who could change their tax and investment options in response to a dramatic change in government policy.

More change inevitably means higher risk – but for a group of younger voters who feel excluded from the current economic system, the risk may well feel worth taking.

I have followed all the debates /discussions in the radio/TV and NONE of the parties referred to any annual contributions to the rainy day fund. This fund - which I understand has been established- is SO rooted in the avoidance of another downturn just experienced.
Are all parties of the opinion that the next downturn is light years away?
It would be prudent if gov had built up a war chest for the rainy day and used it to build the amount of social/ affordable houses needed in the next depression if one happened in the next 3,4 or 5 years. It would help put a floor under the const industry and related suppliers

Field east

topmanamillion wrote: »

The indo/Denis O'Brien have really been ramping up the anti Sinn Fein stuff over the last few days.
Two stories a day from them.

VM news had Micheál Martin on the other day and he wasn't challenged on any of his policies. The first couple of minutes went by with the theme of "Sinn Fein are awful, wouldn't you agree Micheál?"

DOB may be the major shareholder in the Sunday indo but I thing that he is toxic re the staff unless they have kissed and made up. It , I think, was over how brien outed O Reilly from ownership and staff did not like it. I think, if memory serves me right that one senior SI staff member/ journalist brought OB to court over some issue

rafatoni

topmanamillion wrote: »

The indo/Denis O'Brien have really been ramping up the anti Sinn Fein stuff over the last few days.
Two stories a day from them.

VM news had Micheál Martin on the other day and he wasn't challenged on any of his policies. The first couple of minutes went by with the theme of "Sinn Fein are awful, wouldn't you agree Micheál?"

Paul Williams has the headline now in the indo... they are wheeling them out from everywhere to slate SF..

Seth Brundle

Field east wrote: »

DOB may be the major shareholder in the Sunday indo but I thing that he is toxic re the staff unless they have kissed and made up. It , I think, was over how brien outed O Reilly from ownership and staff did not like it. I think, if memory serves me right that one senior SI staff member/ journalist brought OB to court over some issue

Hasn't DOB sold his stake in INM (now owned by Belgian company Mediahuis)?

handlemaster

rafatoni wrote: »

Paul Williams has the headline now in the indo... they are wheeling them out from everywhere to slate SF..

Should it not be. They have been through hell with the party that wants to govern.

partyguinness

We are all SF at heart. Some are just still in denial.

Larbre34

partyguinness wrote: »

We are all SF at heart. Some are just still in denial.

At heart, they are Commies. We are not all SF at heart, starting with me.

partyguinness

Larbre34 wrote: »

At heart, they are Commies. We are not all SF at heart, starting with me.

"Commies"...lol- Jaysus what 20th century decade are you stuck in.

Hamsterchops

partyguinness wrote: »

We are all SF at heart. Some are just still in denial.

Classic

is_that_so

partyguinness wrote: »

We are all SF at heart. Some are just still in denial.

Plenty of (mé) féin but not a lot of the Sinn!

jimmycrackcorm

Idbatterim wrote: »

A range of measures in the manifesto are specifically aimed at large multinationals – the bulk of which are from the US, who could change their tax and investment options in response to a dramatic change in government policy.

More change inevitably means higher risk – but for a group of younger voters who feel excluded from the current economic system, the risk may well feel worth taking.

Can't blame the younger voters for getting this. But then they don't know how **** Ireland was prior to the nineties. In the intervening period we've gone from the expectation that everyone needed to emigrate to there being plenty of jobs.

Now the pre 90's emigration issue is replaced by the housing issue.

And the response of this, the risk is we will reverse that to go back to emigration. The young voters might think differently once they do have, homes and families and paying higher taxes to fund those that follow in their footsteps.

James Brown

If you are working, be you just left college or middle aged (or both) and can't make ends meet re rent and buying is a fantasy, likely you've a relative or neighbour been left on a hospital trolley for hours, I'd suggest you couldn't give two f***s about some FF shams assisting Gerry Adams with a legal case, (disclaimer, did not read the article) and an opinion piece on how ex-provos might see Paul Quinn's mother, but these are supposedly the big front page stories today. It must be bewildering for anyone looking to catch up on the news.
Chances are you'll simply vote for the party looking to tackle your issues be it SD, SF, Lab etc..
I think Labour dropped the ball again. I'm not sure how much blame lies with the lack of media coverage or if Labour's poor form simply didn't warrant it but Labour could/should have been the big third party threat if they had their act together.

Yurt2

Larbre34 wrote: »

At heart, they are Commies. We are not all SF at heart, starting with me.

Leo dropped Venezuela in a interview on the radio the other day. Put the player on mute - silly season and an act of desperation.

There's questions to be answered about SF's economic platform, but invoking commies and Venezuela is bottom of the drawer stuff and insults people's intelligence.

I didn't really like FG coming into the election season, but since they dialled up their electioneering, I'm more certain than ever they're the wrong party to lead a government.

Larbre34

partyguinness wrote: »

"Commies"...lol- Jaysus what 20th century decade are you stuck in.

Best you can do? I could've called them worse.

Sir Oxman

Finty Lemon wrote: »

Syriza should be a lesson learned.
Maduro in Venezuala on a whole other level.

Why do SF support both? Troubling.

You left out East Germany there.
Varadkar's favourite

FrancieBrady

Matt Barrett wrote: »

If you are working, be you just left college or middle aged (or both) and can't make ends meet re rent and buying is a fantasy, likely you've a relative or neighbour been left on a hospital trolley for hours, I'd suggest you couldn't give two f***s about some FF shams assisting Gerry Adams with a legal case, (disclaimer, did not read the article) and an opinion piece on how ex-provos might see Paul Quinn's mother, but these are supposedly the big front page stories today. It must be bewildering for anyone looking to catch up on the news.
Chances are you'll simply vote for the party looking to tackle your issues be it SD, SF, Lab etc..
I think Labour dropped the ball again. I'm not sure how much blame lies with the lack of media coverage or if Labour's poor form simply didn't warrant it but Labour could/should have been the big third party threat if they had their act together.

Of them all, I thought Labour's campaign was innocuous, hard to see how they will attract new voters.

partyguinness

Larbre34 wrote: »

Best you can do? I could've called them worse.

Best I can do in what sense?

BarryD2

Matt Barrett wrote: »

I think Labour dropped the ball again. I'm not sure how much blame lies with the lack of media coverage or if Labour's poor form simply didn't warrant it but Labour could/should have been the big third party threat if they had their act together.

Yep but they seem to have lost energy and need fresh blood. Howlin regardless of how decent he may be is part of the problem - the classic career politician who's been there toooooo long.

friendlyfun

THE BAR COUNCIL of Ireland has weighed in on a squabble over an article in the Irish Independent about Fianna Fáil’s justice spokesman, Jim O’Callaghan, being hired to act in a defamation case by former Sinn Féin leader Gerry Adams.

O’Callaghan, who is a barrister, responded by saying that it would be a breach of the barrister’s code of conduct to refuse to represent someone legally because of their politics.

Canvassing in Ennis, Co Clare today on the last day of the campaign, Taoiseach Leo Varadkar said to RTÉ News that it is “further proof to me that Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin are just itching to get into bed together”.

This afternoon, the Council of the Bar released a statement saying it is the duty of barristers to be independent and free from any influence. Citing the code of conduct, it said:

“Barristers cannot discriminate in favour of or against any person availing, or seeking to avail, of the services of the barrister on the grounds of race, colour, sex, sexual orientation, language, politics, religion, nationality, national or social origin, national minority, birth or other status.”

What was Leo thinking with the stupid comment?

McMurphy

friendlyfun wrote: »

What was Leo thinking with the stupid comment?

You're talking about a Taoiseach who, in front of the world's media said that he tried to influence the outcome of a planning application on behalf of Donald Trump.

I honestly believe Leo doesn't give a flying flute anymore, his race his run.