Could Sinn Fein actually run a country ?

no.8

Yes it could obviously be a lot worse. I don't recall any breakdown in civilisation over the past few years?

shenanagans

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Hypothetical scenario...

SF get 35+ seats

Is a coalition possible between SF, Greens, Independents? Mary Lou as Taoiseach.

SF aren't running enough candidates. They won't get 35 regardless of their current high poll position. I'd say 30 max.

scrumqueen

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Hypothetical scenario...

SF get 35+ seats

Is a coalition possible between SF, Greens, Independents? Mary Lou as Taoiseach.

Does anyone have the total number of Greens, SD,and Indos? I doubt highly that it totals 118?

Unless Labour would be the ones to make this happen?

KaneToad

pjohnson wrote: »

Cant be worse than FG tbf.

It can. It may not be. But it definitely can.

Fann Linn

no.8 wrote: »

Yes it could obviously be a lot worse. I don't recall any breakdown in civilisation on the past few years?

Hysterical or what!

no.8

smelly sock wrote:

So to hell with them.

smelly sock wrote:

Time for change

Fair points... however if it's more of that which you want then vote SF. The Robin Hood approach will not work in a democratic country (over taxed high earners will simply leave the island or live over the border).

shenanagans

scrumqueen wrote: »

Does anyone have the total number of Greens, SD,and Indos? I doubt highly that it totals 118?

Unless Labour would be the ones to make this happen?

Again. Unfortunately labour don't have enough good candidates. Even Joan Burton looks like losing her seat.

Brock Turnpike

shenanagans wrote: »

SF aren't running enough candidates. They won't get 35 regardless of their current high poll position. I'd say 30 max.

Well they are running in 38 constituencies, with 40 candidates across that I believe.

However, the question is a hypothetical one. If they were to get 35 seats, could they then form a rainbow coalition with other smaller parties and independents?

is_that_so

scrumqueen wrote: »

Does anyone have the total number of Greens, SD,and Indos? I doubt highly that it totals 118?

Unless Labour would be the ones to make this happen?

Greens seem to be looking at 10-12, Labour at about 6 and SDs 2+ maybe one more with a dozen or so Indos. We will probably have to wait till after the Tipp election for any kind of deal making and Leo could nearly be Taoiseach till the summer!

Fann Linn

no.8 wrote: »

Fair points... however if it's more of that which you want then vote SF. The Robin Hood approach will not work in a democratic country (over taxed high earners will simply leave the island or live over the border).

That old chestnut has been thrown around for the last 20 years as an excuse for not taxing the rich.
Perhaps it's time to test the waters.

For Forks Sake

is_that_so wrote: »

Greens seem to be looking at 10-12, Labour at about 6 and SDs 2+ maybe one more with a dozen or so Indos. We will probably have to wait till after the Tipp election for any kind of deal making and Leo could nearly be Taoiseach till the summer!

Tipp will definitely send back 2 Independents (Lowry and Mattie McGrath) and possibly a third (Seamus Healy)

no.8

Fann Linn wrote:

Hysterical or what!

The comment i was responding to is the hysterical one... if you're being honest with yourself

shenanagans

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Well they are running in 38 constituencies, with 40 candidates across that I believe.

However, the question is a hypothetical one. If they were to get 35 seats, could they then form a rainbow coalition with other smaller parties and independents?

SF ran 50 last election but only got 22 seats so that's 44% success. Let's say they improve their success rate to 66% . 42 candidates ....so 28 seats.

SF will do well around borders and in cities.....but not everywhere.

They won't exceed 30 seats.....

For Forks Sake

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Hypothetical scenario...

SF get 35+ seats

Is a coalition possible between SF, Greens, Independents? Mary Lou as Taoiseach.

Short answer, no.
Long answer, also no.

Field east

smelly sock wrote: »

Stats just dont paint a picture dude.

You are denying the housing crisis?

The healthcare crisis?

The mortgage arrears crisis?

Homeless at at least 10000.

Insurance costs are mental.

Mortgage interest rates sky high.

I wonder what is the position in relation to these six issues in the countries that were 1st and 2nd?

shenanagans

is_that_so wrote: »

Greens seem to be looking at 10-12, Labour at about 6 and SDs 2+ maybe one more with a dozen or so Indos. We will probably have to wait till after the Tipp election for any kind of deal making and Leo could nearly be Taoiseach till the summer!

So if SF get 30. 12 greens. 6 labour. 2 SD. That's 50......so need 30 independents.....joke.

Wouldn't be stable govt. All the independents would want something. You can't bargain with that amount of independents......let's be realistic.

smurgen

Lol look at the FGers only admitting we have a housing and health issue now they're about to be turfed out. I'm sure they've just woken up now. Give them another go and things will surely get better.they've only been in power a decade.

silver2020

I am almost resigned to the fact that SF will be in a coalition. The sums don't add up any other way except for a FG/FF coalition and because they are too similar, that just won't happen.

I begrudgingly think it may not be the worst as they are not as hard left as they used to be and very much like what the labour party were 20 years ago.

Extra tax for those over 100k? and some tax breaks taken away - no problem with that.

They also have some decent people and have very much started and continued the move away from fervent nationalism.

Personally I thought it would take another election, but if they get over 20% of the votes and no other party gets over 30%, then like them or loathe them, you simply have to go with what the public have asked for

One HUGE advantage is they will rid the country of many of the hard left loonies.

shenanagans

smurgen wrote: »

Lol look at the FGers only admitting we have a housing and health issue now they're about to be turfed out. I'm sure they've just woken up now. Give them another go and things will surely get better.they've only been in power a decade.

Totally. We need change. But we also need to be realistic about what change is likely to actually occur.

With 30 seats max....how do SF put a govt together. Short answer is they can't. It's more likely to be FF putting a govt together with lefties/greens/indos

super_furry

silver2020 wrote: »

One HUGE advantage is they will rid the country of many of the hard left loonies.

Huh?

scrumqueen

scrumqueen wrote: »

Does anyone have the total number of Greens, SD,and Indos? I doubt highly that it totals 118?

Unless Labour would be the ones to make this happen?

I’m gonna find all the info for every constituency. It’s gonna take a while.

Someone else can do the sums

joe40

silver2020 wrote: »

I am almost resigned to the fact that SF will be in a coalition. The sums don't add up any other way except for a FG/FF coalition and because they are too similar, that just won't happen.

I begrudgingly think it may not be the worst as they are not as hard left as they used to be and very much like what the labour party were 20 years ago.

Extra tax for those over 100k? and some tax breaks taken away - no problem with that.

They also have some decent people and have very much started and continued the move away from fervent nationalism.

Personally I thought it would take another election, but if they get over 20% of the votes and no other party gets over 30%, then like them or loathe them, you simply have to go with what the public have asked for

One HUGE advantage is they will rid the country of many of the hard left loonies.

Good post, I can agree with that.

However it is hard to see how either FF or FG can roll back on their vehement opposition to going into coalition with Sinn Fein. I'm fully aware all political parties take positions leading up to elections, then pragmatism takes over post election.
But a FF or FG coalition with Sinn Fein would be a massive U-turn, surely credibility would be damaged

smurgen

shenanagans wrote: »

Totally. We need change. But we also need to be realistic about what change is likely to actually occur.

With 30 seats max....how do SF put a govt together. Short answer is they can't. It's more likely to be FF putting a govt together with lefties/greens/indos

A SF coalition with FF may be best. Economics will drive everything however SF in power will cut some of the shady cartel like operations I see at play like the insurance industry industry,housing scam and the blank cheques being signed off to the big 4 consultants.i think some of the fg old boys club type arrangement that the likes of Dinny and co were taking advantage of are about to be put to bed.

shenanagans

smurgen wrote: »

A SF coalition with FF may be best. Economics will drive everything however SF in power will cut some of the shady cartel like operations I see at play like the insurance industry industry,housing scam and the blank cheques being signed off to the big 4 consultants.i think some of the fg old boys club type arrangement that the likes of Dinny and co were taking advantage of are about to be put to bed.

But will FF go in with SF.......let's see if MM has a different manner in tonights debate. Perhaps he'll stop attacking May Lou......or maybe him and Leo will gang up on her and reinforce their positions of not willing to do business with SF.

seamus

Brock Turnpike wrote: »

Hypothetical scenario...

SF get 35+ seats

Is a coalition possible between SF, Greens, Independents? Mary Lou as Taoiseach.

You need 81 seats to have control of the next Dail. Even if in fantasy land SF took 40 seats and the Greens took 15, you'd still need 26 seats for a coalition. That'd be twice the total number of independents that got elected in 2016.

So, no, is the short answer. A grand coalition between almost everyone except FF & FG is possible but also unlikely: The largest party in the Dail gets first dibs on attempting to form a government, and they will.

The thing that could put the cat amongst the pigeons is the possibility that FF & FG together don't get 81 seats. Most projections are giving them 50-something and 30-something seats each. But in the event that they fell short, you could end up with this odd scenario of a FF/Lab/Green minority coalition with a supply agreement with FG.

The largest party is going to have to eventually talk to Sinn Féin, because they'll have too many seats to be ignored. The policy of locking them out can't fly any more.

This poses a problem for FF in particular as their core demographic of older voters are very anti-SF, whereas FG voters are more 50:50.

Field east

Yurt! wrote: »

Is this in the SF manifesto? Not a SF voter but I'm willing to give them a fair crack of the whip on this. You're making stuff up.





They've been in power for a decade, in all honesty, you have to make them carry the can for these problems that have become markedly worse during their tenure. I'd accept it if they were making serious inroads into these problems, but the evidence is they're not and to be frank, I believe not without reason, they'd get worse in another FG led government.

‘Been in power for a decade’ . Some posters are constantly putting this narrative out at every opportunity at all media levels and no context is given. If FG came into power in 2011 with a growing economy and in a healthy surplus we might have a very different picture today.
THE TRUTH is that FG came into power in 2011 with the economy spiraling out of control IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. Would you conceed that it would take any gov a few years to stop the downturn - with actions that are going to affect people’s pockets- a few more years to stabilize the economy and start then to grow the economy conservatively at first and build up a war chest for capital socially related investment.
The point is that the gov hands were extremely tied as to what it could do as the finances were not there. So it is very disingenuous. To say that it did nothing during its current tenure in office.

pjohnson

FG will crawl begging to SF if it gave Leo a sniff of any kind of power.

ricero

smurgen wrote: »

A SF coalition with FF may be best. Economics will drive everything however SF in power will cut some of the shady cartel like operations I see at play like the insurance industry industry,housing scam and the blank cheques being signed off to the big 4 consultants.i think some of the fg old boys club type arrangement that the likes of Dinny and co were taking advantage of are about to be put to bed.

Yea i think this is the best outcome for everyone bar Fine Gael.

Would love to see the likes of Doherty and O Broin in ministerial positions. Smart lads, no bull**** and will get **** done.

scrumqueen

shenanagans wrote: »

So if SF get 30. 12 greens. 6 labour. 2 SD. That's 50......so need 30 independents.....joke.

Wouldn't be stable govt. All the independents would want something. You can't bargain with that amount of independents......let's be realistic.

Well given SFs short amount of candidates, there will be a lot of surpluses and transfers which I have to assume will go left?

I see a boost for greens and sd's and maybe labour and some indos.

Greens are running in every constituency and SDs are running 20 candidates. Who knows what will fall out of the boxes on Sunday.

Field east

Iscreamkone wrote: »

The economy is booming.
That will not happen under SF
Then where will they get the money to give their supporters

In fact there’s not enough money available now to pay for their leftie schemes

The banks can be ‘tapped’. They have plenty of it.