Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

pad199207

Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland

On Sunday, Storm Ciara will produce very strong southwest winds with mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h and gusts generally up to 130km/h.

A combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in a significant risk of coastal flooding especially along western and northwestern coasts.

Valid: 05:00 Sunday 09/02/2020 to 12:00 Sunday 09/02/2020

Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020

Updated: 11:00 Saturday 08/02/2020

squarecircles

• Status Orange - Wind warning for Donegal and Mayo
  
  In advance of the arrival of Storm Ciara on Sunday, south to southwest winds on Saturday will reach mean speeds of 65-80km/h with gusts of up to 120 km/h.
  Valid: 12:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 16:00 Saturday 08/02/2020
  Issued: 15:00 Friday 07/02/2020
  
  
• Status: Orange Wind warning for Galway
  Status Orange - Wind warning for Galway
  
  In advance of the arrival of Storm Ciara on Sunday, south to southwest winds on Saturday will reach mean speeds of 65-80km/h with gusts of up to 120 km/h.
  Valid: 13:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 18:00 Saturday 08/02/2020
  Issued: 14:00 Friday 07/02/2020
  
  
• Status: Orange Wind warning for Ireland
  Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland
  
  On Sunday, Storm Ciara will produce very strong southwest winds with mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h and gusts generally up to 130km/h.
  
  A combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in a significant risk of coastal flooding especially along western and northwestern coasts.
  Valid: 05:00 Sunday 09/02/2020 to 12:00 Sunday 09/02/2020
  Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020
  Updated: 11:00 Saturday 08/02/2020
  
  
• Status: Yellow Rainfall warning for Ireland
  Status Yellow - Rainfall warning for Ireland
  
  Saturday, 8th Feb: A spell of heavy rain will spread eastwards across the country on Saturday with 20-40mm expected, highest in the west and northwest.
  
  Sunday, 9th Feb: Another spell of heavy rain on Sunday will clear to squally wintry showers. Another 20-40mm likely.
  
  A risk of localised flooding this weekend, especially over the western half of the country.
  Valid: 12:00 Saturday 08/02/2020 to 15:00 Sunday 09/02/2020
  Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020
  
  

Akrasia

pad199207 wrote: »

Status Orange - Wind warning for Ireland

On Sunday, Storm Ciara will produce very strong southwest winds with mean speeds of 65 to 80km/h and gusts generally up to 130km/h.

A combination of Spring Tides and high seas as well as stormy conditions will result in a significant risk of coastal flooding especially along western and northwestern coasts.

Valid: 05:00 Sunday 09/02/2020 to 12:00 Sunday 09/02/2020

Issued: 11:00 Thursday 06/02/2020

Updated: 11:00 Saturday 08/02/2020

130kph gusts is the criteria for a red warning
Could some western counties get another upgrade to red if inland counties can reach 130kph?

Snow Garden

Mace Head recorded a gust of 80km/h at 10am. Otherwise it's fairly calm in Galway. Early days I know.

Itssoeasy

Wind is certainly picked up but not so much rain yet but that’s to come.

Oneiric 3

Latest ECMWF. Fair chance that it is overdoing it, but still showing potential for some high rainfall totals over the next 18 to 24 hrs. (chart shows forecast totals up to 6am tomorrow)

Snow Garden

Gusts at 12 noon
Belmullet = 87 km/h
Mace Head = 89 km/h
Valentia = 78 km/h

Oscar Bravo

1pm
Belmullet gusting 54 knots (100km/h) in modreate rain.

Snow Garden

Heavy rain in Galway now.

Mace Head 96 km/h (Gust) at 1pm

pauldry

Belmullet the first to 100kph

Malin will follow at 2 I'd say as squall gets established

sdanseo

munsterlegend wrote: »

Is this orange an upgrade or as expected? MT mentioned he felt this system might be stronger than anticipated.

Wasn't expecting Orange for Dublin based on yesterday's charts.

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

Latest ECMWF. Fair chance that it is overdoing it, but still showing potential for some high rainfall totals over the next 18 to 24 hrs. (chart shows forecast totals up to 6am tomorrow)

HIRLAM going for some large totals also. 48hrs to 7am Monday:

Oneiric 3

sdanseo wrote: »

HIRLAM going for some large totals also. 48hrs to 7am Monday:

Still going with the idea of a trailing, if narrow convergence zone later on up through parts of Mayo/Sligo etc, but let's see.

Donegal Storm

Nice morning in Letterkenny, dry and bright.

Wind picking up but just breezy with moderate gusts so far, radar seems to be overplaying the rain as well, nothing more than a few spits of drizzle so far despite what the radar's looked like for the past hour

Graces7

Akrasia wrote: »

130kph gusts is the criteria for a red warning
Could some western counties get another upgrade to red if inland counties can reach 130kph?

already marine red alert which cover islands so yes likely indeed. Very bad out here and there is little hope te power will hold

littlema

Horizontal heavy rain here with gusts that are hard to walk in (but I’m small).
152m asl. S Sligo

Oscar Bravo

2pm
Belmullet gusting 63 knots (117km/h)

m17

Tuam co Galway 08/02/20 12.20 temperature 6°C

Rebelbrowser

Euro 04 looking v promising out to lunchtime Monday....

Meteorite58

AROME a good reliable model in my estimation, not one prone to over doing it. Interesting showing very strong winds for a time tomorrow morning through the midlands and the East. Will we get gusts there of 120 - 130 km/h ? , that would be quite unusual. That is some rain total to fall in Connacht and Ulster and parts of the SW.

Thunderstorms with huge squalls look a fair possibility.

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Euro 04 looking v promising out to lunchtime Monday....

Yeah looks great. Thought it more Monday evening was our best chance.

Donegal Ken

Graces7 wrote: »

already marine red alert which cover islands so yes likely indeed. Very bad out here and there is little hope te power will hold

A red warning is not likely there is a low risk of one been issued but i wouldn't say likely.

endainoz

Few images of Doolin pier as promised, fairly wild sea out there.

Mortelaro

Gusting almost 84kmh at my Davis station in Arklow in the last few mins
Southwest

DellyBelly

Not to bad in Dublin. Still dry and a little breezy but nothing to write home about

snaps

endainoz wrote: »

Few images of Doolin pier as promised, fairly wild sea out there.

Wonder what salthill will look like soon at high tide.

JCX BXC

snaps wrote: »

Wonder what salthill will look like soon at high tide.

Quite bad I'd say, luckily they've cancelled the Galway 2020 opening ceremony at the swamp!

Audible gusts here in West Clare, haven't ventured out in it yet.

redsteveireland

Dirty winters day in Galway.

Snow Garden

3pm

Mace Head Gust = 93km/h
Belmullet = 89km/h
Newport = 107 km/h
Valentia = 80 km/h
Malin Head = 98 km/h

Belmullet eased off quite a bit from the earlier 117.

kerrycork13

Very windy here in east kerry. Nothing exceptional but its been pouring down for 3 hours or so. Worst conditions windwise tommorow morning I would think here. Impressive rainfall totals I would think.

littlema

Hard to see the sheets of rain on window, but the road seldom floods like that.