Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

Gonzo

Hirlam looks decent enough for snow showers getting across to the east later tonight, tomorrow morning. Could be a dusting in many places by the morning if this verifies.



GFS see's a rather dry night for Leinster with showers getting going again tomorrow.

pad199207

SleetAndSnow

I think we know that the euro4 overdoes snow charts, but I also think we all have candles lit and every possible thing crossed at the same time

DOCARCH

3pm reports have a lot of coastal stations reporting gusts of 100 km/h and over.

Gusts:
Sherkin Island 113 km/h
Mailn Head 111 km/h
Roches Point 111 km/h
Mace Head 109 km/h
Valentia 100 km/h
Shannon 100 km/h

Rebelbrowser

Since mid morning temps at Cork airport have gone from 6.7c down to 3.3c and DP from 1.8 to 0.8 so moving in right direction anyway.

Rebelbrowser

Just as a warning to those of us picking our favourite models to show what we want (guilty as charged), were the Euro 04 6z correct the good burghers of Waterford would be digging themselves out now...

munsterlegend

Rebelbrowser wrote: »

Just as a warning to those of us picking our favourite models to show what we want (guilty as charged), were the Euro 04 6z correct the good burghers of Waterford would be digging themselves out now...

Rebel that chart you had earlier of temps etc can you post an updated one please?

Graces7

DOCARCH wrote: »

3pm reports have a lot of coastal stations reporting gusts of 100 km/h and over.

Gusts:
Sherkin Island 113 km/h
Mailn Head 111 km/h
Roches Point 111 km/h
Mace Head 109 km/h
Valentia 100 km/h
Shannon 100 km/h

Out here the coastal gale is a loud constant today. Occasionally hail-laden but always the howling and buffeting of it, gusting gutsily .

textiles

North Clare coast particularly ferocious in the last hour - worse than Saturday and Sunday.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

Rebel that chart you had earlier of temps etc can you post an updated one please?

Sure, see below. You get it on meteociel anyway on the home page if you click on the left hand side on temperature (and then take the option on top of the page to see Irlande only) and dew points are under point de rosee on the left hand side similarly. In fact if you hover over any station on their map you get lots of station specific data not on met.ie. If you click on the station, you get even more (but lose dew points bizarrely!). Current detailed Cork airport data is linked to below... DP at Cork airport now -3 as you'll see but temp is 5c.

Dew points



Temps



Cork Airport station report

See http://www.meteociel.fr/temps-reel/obs_villes.php?code2=3955

Rebelbrowser

My dew points chart above really does show the cold air is arriving. Cork airport dew points fell from +0.8 to -3 in an hour as far as I can see.

cherryghost

Soil temp is quite high still so no proper stucking until early tomorrow probably, significant cooling running through the day tomorrow though.

Oneiric 3

Latest satellite image showing plenty more showers out in the Atlantic heading our way. Elongated cloud to the near NW is associated with an occlusion which will bring more prolonged showers to northern areas later this evening.

mayo.mick

Current temps here ans dew point

Rebelbrowser

Now 5c with DP of -4c at Cork airport.

Donegal Storm

Plenty heavy hail squalls piling in here all day, a couple of big booms of thunder earlier as well.

Nice to get a proper old fashioned polar maritime flow for a change, few and far between this past decade

Gonzo

looks to be plenty of showers heading into Donegal at the moment. Radar already getting very light over Leinster. It was nice to get a decent snow shower earlier on but I'm not sure i'll see anything else today. North Meath and Louth look like they may get a few more showers, but not much for South Meath or Dublin going by the latest radar.

Oscar Bravo

5pm
Sherkin gusting 62 knots

Logan Roy

The last few days have been pretty wild down here - East Cork near the coast

Wintriest couple of days this winter by far.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest wet-bulb temperatures. We need to be getting these down to zero or below for any proper accumulation to take place. They should start dropping in the next few hours as the cold air starts to make inroads.

https://meteologix.com/ie/observations/ireland/wet-bulb-temperature/20200210-1700z.html

Nqp15hhu

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There'll be plenty of hail/snow showers piling in to the west and north overnight.

I still think 5 - 10 cm is possible in some places there.

Fewer and lighter snow showers elsewhere.

Some will be happy come the morning.

Nope. There is a mild low coming down from the north west so Ulster will have to restart it’s snow collection after 3am..

Donegal Storm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Nope. There is a mild low coming down from the north west so Ulster will have to restart it’s snow collection after 3am..

Yep, nothing but rain and sleety hail from the current band here in Donegal, looks like it's after midnight before things get towards the right side of marginal again but as always with westerlies it'll likely just be a slushy mess at best

Graces7

Please tell me, o wise ones, if this current severe weather is set in for the night? I mean the violent gusts that arrived recently. More violent by the minute. Thankyou' west mayo offshore

snaps

Graces7 wrote: »

Please tell me, o wise ones, if this current severe weather is set in for the night? I mean the violent gusts that arrived recently. More violent by the minute. Thankyou' west mayo offshore

Isn't there supposed To be a massive storm surge tonight with 10-15m waves along the western coasts.

SleetAndSnow

Heavy shower in cork city now, can see in the sky where the snow becomes sleet/rain. If the snow line dropped 100m more we would be getting plastered

Graces7

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Heavy shower in cork city now, can see in the sky where the snow becomes sleet/rain. If the snow line dropped 100m more we would be getting plastered

Love your enthusiasm!

RobertKK

Got about 4cm to 5cm of snow today before a slight thaw, so we had snow all day on the hills in Kilkenny, currently snowing, 1.2C with a DP of -0.4C.

m17

Sally gap this morning (pic twitter)

starburst87

I'm in Wexford, it's just after starting, these are the first flakes we've seen

Oneiric 3

Graces7 wrote: »

Please tell me, o wise ones, if this current severe weather is set in for the night? I mean the violent gusts that arrived recently. More violent by the minute. Thankyou' west mayo offshore

Windy throughout the night Grace with potential for severe gusts in showers. Stay warm and snug!

Nqp15hhu

Back down to -7c 850pha and 400m freezing level for Ulster by 4am.

Depending on how warm it gets in this warm sector, we could get some lying snow at low levels.

Oneiric 3

It's a real pity that 'wet bulb' forecast charts aren't available (at least to the best of my knowledge) to the public. We have every sort of parameter available, a lot of which are just pointless, but no WBs for some unbeknown reason.

Nqp15hhu

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It's a real pity that 'wet bulb' forecast charts aren't available (at least to the best of my knowledge) to the public. We have every sort of parameter available, a lot of which are just pointless, but no WBs for some unbeknown reason.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020021012&fh=36

Click on this chart, change the location and the Tephigram will show the forecasted wet bulb temperature, air temperature and dew point temperature.

Oneiric 3

Just to illustrate how pointless 'snow depth' forecast charts are, here is the latest run of the ECMWF for 6pm, showing most of the country under a slight covering. Now, can't speak for other areas, but certainly no covering here.

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020021012&fh=36

Click on this chart, change the location and the Tephigram will show the forecasted wet bulb temperature, air temperature and dew point temperature.

Neat feature, thanks!

kerrycork13

It's hard to see any snow sticking the winds are so strong during the showers and they are not lasting any more than a few minutes as a result. It has showed here but nothing worth talking about. Here's hoping for a more organised band of showers overnight. Rathmore Cork Kerry border. 150 m asl

Gaoth Laidir

The 12Z has backtracked a little on tomorow's low thickness values of earlier runs, now retreating the 516 dam line back westards from Louth to Belmullet. Still some 600 km further east than the ECM.

At 700 hPa it still has the -20 C isotherm well in over the country, while the ECM, GEM, ICON and Arpege all have it more like -17 to -18 C.

At 850 hPa it's around 1 degree colder than the others (-8 C v -6 or -7 C).

Here's the GFS sounding for around Mullingar tomorrow midday. WBT (blue) just hanging on by the skin of its teeth (around +0.5 C).

Snow Garden

Mace Head recorded a 120 km/h gust at 18:00

I am in Galway and it doesn't seem that windy. I guess you just get used to it.

Oneiric 3

Snow Garden wrote: »

Mace Head recorded a 120 km/h gust at 18:00

I am in Galway and it doesn't seem that windy. I guess you just get used to it.

So am I and Mace Hd may as well be the moon for how representative it is of here.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest wet-bulbs. Lough Fea (225 m amsl) has just gone from rain to snow as the wbt fell from 1.3 to 0.7 C. Knock is 1.0 C while Casement is 0.8 C.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

So am I and Mace Hd may as well be the moon for how representative it is of here.

Some difference between Athenry and Mace Head...

PsMETAR ANRY 101900Z AUTO 26017G43KT 7000NDV -SHRA SCT036/// BKN042/// BKN060/// 03/00 0995 MSL=
PsMETAR MACE 101900Z AUTO 27042G61KT 5000NDV -SHRA BKN038/// BKN110/// 06/00 0995 MSL=

Gaoth Laidir

Finner gust 61 knots at 8 pm. Malin and Mace Heads both 60 kts.

JanuarySnowstor

Showers seem to be getting their act together in the southwest now again. Snow is a certainty for the South once we can keep the ppn alive! The radar is worth a close eye between now and midnight

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Showers seem to be getting their act together in the southwest now again. Snow is a certainty for the South once we can keep the ppn alive! The radar is worth a close eye between now and midnight

Plenty showers near Mallow but of rain and some hail.

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

Plenty showers near Mallow but of rain and some hail.

Am really surprised with that with uppers so low....
Maybe later tonight will go in our favour

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

So am I and Mace Hd may as well be the moon for how representative it is of here.

It's pretty much in the sea. But there have been some notable gusts during the heavier showers here.

redsteveireland

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Some difference between Athenry and Mace Head...

PsMETAR ANRY 101900Z AUTO 26017G43KT 7000NDV -SHRA SCT036/// BKN042/// BKN060/// 03/00 0995 MSL=
PsMETAR MACE 101900Z AUTO 27042G61KT 5000NDV -SHRA BKN038/// BKN110/// 06/00 0995 MSL=

I would imagine the Athenry station is alot more sheltered than Mace head.

pauldry

Most notable thing about tonight's weather is storm Ciara finally arriving. Wind 110kph here. Only torrents of rain the other days. Now torrents of rain....no snow...

uck51js9zml2yt

Lightening in North Kerry for the last few hours.

Gonzo

This all just proves how difficult it is to get real snow from a westerly. It takes a while for the cold air to filter in and when it does filter in there are warm sectors at every turn.

It needs proper winds to bring the showers across the country and very unstable air to bring a more prolonged section of snow showers as long as there isn't a warm sector involved.

The downside of the high winds is any showers don't last very long and once showers are finished, snow melt sets in rapidly as daytime temperatures rarely stay lower than 3C or 4C in a showery westerly. The higher windspeeds may also make it more difficult for ice to form which can also gradually melt any lying snow, even at night.

For lying snow and a decent chance of getting proper snow showers, a -10C temperature @ 850hpa offers a more realistic chance of seeing snow fall which sticks properly, getting this from a westerly or even north-westerly is difficult to say the least with 2,000km of warm seas modifying the air. The current cold snap is getting the -7 or -8C uppers over us, which is borderline/marginal but even this is good going from a westerly.

This is why for me an unstable northerly or proper easterly are the only real snowmakers for lower ground with a fraction of the sea track, much colder wind direction, often much colder uppers, less warm sectors, much better dp's and the possibility of ice days.

Sadly we often spend 8 or 9 winters trying to chase down one of these rare easterly's/northerly's during winter. At this stage I would say we are overdue a proper winter easterly, it's been 10 years. The Beast From The East/Storm Emma was more of an early Spring event as it crossed over into March.

Meteorite58

Ferocious squally hail / rain showers going through here in Kerry, a winters night if there ever was one.

10 min avg 42 km/h atm, gusting into the 80's, high gust 85 km/h

4.0C giving a windchill o f -3C

7.2mm

The tide was extremely high tonight, was passing over Blennerville Bridge just outside of Tralee on the Dingle road and big waves were breaking over the bridge tossing large clumps of seaweed onto the road, never saw it as bad there before.