Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

esposito

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Metociel euro 4 really going for snow as well with some really cold air moving in from Monday lunchtime. Those who think it will be mainly dry away from coasts are mistaken with such a powerful jet overhead imo

Hope you’re right JS. Need the showers to become widespread and make their way across to the snow starved east coast!

SleetAndSnow

still fairly gusty in cork city, gusting up to 36kts or so still so Ciara still around for another while!

Snow potential looks best for parts of north cork upwards I would say with possibly some parts of the north side of the city and the Airport getting some lying snow most likely.

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Metociel euro 4 really going for snow as well with some really cold air moving in from Monday lunchtime. Those who think it will be mainly dry away from coasts are mistaken with such a powerful jet overhead imo

That euro 4 always seems to be overly optimistic re snow.

Gaoth Laidir

Analysis at 18Z. After the current trough of showers it's a fairly quiet night ahead. The occluded trough just east of New Foundland is tomorrow's little wave system for the south. It can be seen as green cloudtops in the satellite image.

Gaoth Laidir

Especially for Graces7, a nice satellite image of a frozen New Foundland and its sea ice this afternoon.

Rebelbrowser

munsterlegend wrote: »

That euro 4 always seems to be overly optimistic re snow.

True, in fact it was showing snow falling right now until recently.

That said, while it was too optimistic a few weeks back (when Mayo etc got snow) it was still more accurate than the short range models that showed no snow at all. Also, I used it on a recent trip to France and again it befored better than Arome etc.

Lastly, last I looked Hirlam was giving it a fair bit of support re snow over the next 48 hours. See below...

Gaoth Laidir

Tomorrow's system in the south looks less potent in the 12Z forecast than it did in the 00Z forecast. In general, the Atlantic seems a little less convectively active this evening compared to forecasts.

typhoony

there was never really enough of a boundary between warm and cold to create a big enough system for the south tomorrow, it doesn't mean that convection is any less likely for the West and NW and midlands. the satellite shows us that's the convection is plentiful out in the atlantic, the fax chart will never tell you the full story.

JanuarySnowstor

Surely a less defined system tomorrow will mean less of a warm core and an even greater chance of snow...
Time will tell..

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Surely a less defined system tomorrow will mean less of a warm core and an even greater chance of snow...
Time will tell..

It’s a nowcast. Sleep on it and see where we are in the morning!

Graces7

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Especially for Graces7, a nice satellite image of a frozen New Foundland and its sea ice this afternoon.

Oh WOW! WOW! Just WOW! Hearing about folk climbing out through top windows on to frozen snow...

Graces7

Was deep asleep when Ciara decided to wake up. As bad a wind as ever was. Deluge on the windows. Sounds bitty.

redsteveireland

Increase in the max gust at Mace head in the last hour, we've just had another heavy shower pass through.

JanuarySnowstor

@Gaoth laidir......you say a fairly quiet night ahead? Look at the radar the showers are actually intensifying as they cross the country...

Gaoth Laidir

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

@Gaoth laidir......you say a fairly quiet night ahead? Look at the radar the showers are actually intensifying as they cross the country...

Yes, but after that trough passes it's relatively quiet out west for a time.

Nqp15hhu

We have actually had a few heavy showers in the last hour. It’s down to 4c, so maybe snow by 1am?

Gaoth Laidir

The Tropicaltidbits GFS displays a much more mixed precipitation phase over the next couple of days (green=rain, blue=snow). The sounding for a blue area in tomorrows system in Munster shows just how marginal it will be. Tuesday should be better, but soundings still showing a lot of modification of the surface layer, so inland overnight precip the best chance of snow.

m17

Newport co tipperary

m17

Fishguard

typhoony

scattered showers embedded in the colder air just now appearing on the radar off the west coast, probably still a hail\sleety mix for most places in the west until midnight. Knock currently down to 3c and even Shannon is only 5c

Graces7

typhoony wrote: »

scattered showers embedded in the colder air just now appearing on the radar off the west coast, probably still a hail\sleety mix for most places in the west until midnight. Knock currently down to 3c and even Shannon is only 5c

dry here but the cold is bitter

RobertKK

Heavy sleet shower, north Kilkenny, started at around 5.7C and strong winds, now 3.3C, 1.7C DP.

TTLF

Hows the snow looking for the East coast fellas?
Just curious

kittyn

TTLF wrote: »

Hows the snow looking for the East coast fellas?
Just curious

It’s more or less a nowcast situation..... Depends on how much precipitation makes it over our way and how heavy the showers are .... Time will tell

M.T. Cranium

TTLF wrote: »

Hows the snow looking for the East coast fellas?
Just curious

50-50 chance of seeing some snow in the air, less than one in four of any long-lasting snow cover. Snow on higher slopes of Dublin and Wicklow mountains more likely.

TTLF

M.T. Cranium wrote: »

50-50 chance of seeing some snow in the air, less than one in four of any long-lasting snow cover. Snow on higher slopes of Dublin and Wicklow mountains more likely.

thats grand, all I want is a possible Heavy flakes, doesn't matter if it sticks i dont mind

YanSno

I would disagree with MT. it would be more than 50% chance of seeing snow along the East Coast, tomorrow's band is still on course from Galway to North Dublin line. We should be on the right side of the marginal.

nthclare

Would Clare be on the firing line?

Nqp15hhu

Temperature is down to 3c so maybe snow in the next 3 hours, if we get. A shower.

I am not seeing the marginality that some see. From looking at the charts, the freezing level in Ulster does not exceed 500m from tonight until next Thursday, with a 300-400m level on Tuesday.

To me that is productive for low level snowfall.

Meteorite58

Very windy here in Kerry tonight getting the strongest winds of the day with a gust of 87 km/h a short time ago during a squally shower.

17.5mm