Storm Ciara - Strong Winds & Potential Snow **TECHNICAL DISCUSSION**

Logan Roy

The last few days have been pretty wild down here - East Cork near the coast

Wintriest couple of days this winter by far.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest wet-bulb temperatures. We need to be getting these down to zero or below for any proper accumulation to take place. They should start dropping in the next few hours as the cold air starts to make inroads.

https://meteologix.com/ie/observations/ireland/wet-bulb-temperature/20200210-1700z.html

Nqp15hhu

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

There'll be plenty of hail/snow showers piling in to the west and north overnight.

I still think 5 - 10 cm is possible in some places there.

Fewer and lighter snow showers elsewhere.

Some will be happy come the morning.

Nope. There is a mild low coming down from the north west so Ulster will have to restart it’s snow collection after 3am..

Donegal Storm

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

Nope. There is a mild low coming down from the north west so Ulster will have to restart it’s snow collection after 3am..

Yep, nothing but rain and sleety hail from the current band here in Donegal, looks like it's after midnight before things get towards the right side of marginal again but as always with westerlies it'll likely just be a slushy mess at best

Graces7

Please tell me, o wise ones, if this current severe weather is set in for the night? I mean the violent gusts that arrived recently. More violent by the minute. Thankyou' west mayo offshore

snaps

Graces7 wrote: »

Please tell me, o wise ones, if this current severe weather is set in for the night? I mean the violent gusts that arrived recently. More violent by the minute. Thankyou' west mayo offshore

Isn't there supposed To be a massive storm surge tonight with 10-15m waves along the western coasts.

SleetAndSnow

Heavy shower in cork city now, can see in the sky where the snow becomes sleet/rain. If the snow line dropped 100m more we would be getting plastered

Graces7

SleetAndSnow wrote: »

Heavy shower in cork city now, can see in the sky where the snow becomes sleet/rain. If the snow line dropped 100m more we would be getting plastered

Love your enthusiasm!

RobertKK

Got about 4cm to 5cm of snow today before a slight thaw, so we had snow all day on the hills in Kilkenny, currently snowing, 1.2C with a DP of -0.4C.

m17

Sally gap this morning (pic twitter)

starburst87

I'm in Wexford, it's just after starting, these are the first flakes we've seen

Oneiric 3

Graces7 wrote: »

Please tell me, o wise ones, if this current severe weather is set in for the night? I mean the violent gusts that arrived recently. More violent by the minute. Thankyou' west mayo offshore

Windy throughout the night Grace with potential for severe gusts in showers. Stay warm and snug!

Nqp15hhu

Back down to -7c 850pha and 400m freezing level for Ulster by 4am.

Depending on how warm it gets in this warm sector, we could get some lying snow at low levels.

Oneiric 3

It's a real pity that 'wet bulb' forecast charts aren't available (at least to the best of my knowledge) to the public. We have every sort of parameter available, a lot of which are just pointless, but no WBs for some unbeknown reason.

Nqp15hhu

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

It's a real pity that 'wet bulb' forecast charts aren't available (at least to the best of my knowledge) to the public. We have every sort of parameter available, a lot of which are just pointless, but no WBs for some unbeknown reason.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020021012&fh=36

Click on this chart, change the location and the Tephigram will show the forecasted wet bulb temperature, air temperature and dew point temperature.

Oneiric 3

Just to illustrate how pointless 'snow depth' forecast charts are, here is the latest run of the ECMWF for 6pm, showing most of the country under a slight covering. Now, can't speak for other areas, but certainly no covering here.

Nqp15hhu wrote: »

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=eu&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2020021012&fh=36

Click on this chart, change the location and the Tephigram will show the forecasted wet bulb temperature, air temperature and dew point temperature.

Neat feature, thanks!

kerrycork13

It's hard to see any snow sticking the winds are so strong during the showers and they are not lasting any more than a few minutes as a result. It has showed here but nothing worth talking about. Here's hoping for a more organised band of showers overnight. Rathmore Cork Kerry border. 150 m asl

Gaoth Laidir

The 12Z has backtracked a little on tomorow's low thickness values of earlier runs, now retreating the 516 dam line back westards from Louth to Belmullet. Still some 600 km further east than the ECM.

At 700 hPa it still has the -20 C isotherm well in over the country, while the ECM, GEM, ICON and Arpege all have it more like -17 to -18 C.

At 850 hPa it's around 1 degree colder than the others (-8 C v -6 or -7 C).

Here's the GFS sounding for around Mullingar tomorrow midday. WBT (blue) just hanging on by the skin of its teeth (around +0.5 C).

Snow Garden

Mace Head recorded a 120 km/h gust at 18:00

I am in Galway and it doesn't seem that windy. I guess you just get used to it.

Oneiric 3

Snow Garden wrote: »

Mace Head recorded a 120 km/h gust at 18:00

I am in Galway and it doesn't seem that windy. I guess you just get used to it.

So am I and Mace Hd may as well be the moon for how representative it is of here.

Gaoth Laidir

Latest wet-bulbs. Lough Fea (225 m amsl) has just gone from rain to snow as the wbt fell from 1.3 to 0.7 C. Knock is 1.0 C while Casement is 0.8 C.

Gaoth Laidir

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

So am I and Mace Hd may as well be the moon for how representative it is of here.

Some difference between Athenry and Mace Head...

PsMETAR ANRY 101900Z AUTO 26017G43KT 7000NDV -SHRA SCT036/// BKN042/// BKN060/// 03/00 0995 MSL=
PsMETAR MACE 101900Z AUTO 27042G61KT 5000NDV -SHRA BKN038/// BKN110/// 06/00 0995 MSL=

Gaoth Laidir

Finner gust 61 knots at 8 pm. Malin and Mace Heads both 60 kts.

JanuarySnowstor

Showers seem to be getting their act together in the southwest now again. Snow is a certainty for the South once we can keep the ppn alive! The radar is worth a close eye between now and midnight

munsterlegend

JanuarySnowstor wrote: »

Showers seem to be getting their act together in the southwest now again. Snow is a certainty for the South once we can keep the ppn alive! The radar is worth a close eye between now and midnight

Plenty showers near Mallow but of rain and some hail.

JanuarySnowstor

munsterlegend wrote: »

Plenty showers near Mallow but of rain and some hail.

Am really surprised with that with uppers so low....
Maybe later tonight will go in our favour

redsteveireland

Oneiric 3 wrote: »

So am I and Mace Hd may as well be the moon for how representative it is of here.

It's pretty much in the sea. But there have been some notable gusts during the heavier showers here.

redsteveireland

Gaoth Laidir wrote: »

Some difference between Athenry and Mace Head...

PsMETAR ANRY 101900Z AUTO 26017G43KT 7000NDV -SHRA SCT036/// BKN042/// BKN060/// 03/00 0995 MSL=
PsMETAR MACE 101900Z AUTO 27042G61KT 5000NDV -SHRA BKN038/// BKN110/// 06/00 0995 MSL=

I would imagine the Athenry station is alot more sheltered than Mace head.

pauldry

Most notable thing about tonight's weather is storm Ciara finally arriving. Wind 110kph here. Only torrents of rain the other days. Now torrents of rain....no snow...

uck51js9zml2yt

Lightening in North Kerry for the last few hours.