Who are you voting for? Secret Poll

tipptom

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

I didn’t think of that. Here’s link to constituencies

https://www.paddypower.com/politics?tab=irish-constituencies

I think FF are going to win the most seats myself but don't think FG are going to do as bad as the polls suggest but PPs are pretty emphatic in offering 10/1 about FG winning the most seats,a prohibitive 1/14 about FF winning the most seats.

tipptom

Billcarson wrote: »

I will be doing the opposite. Voting for sf and giving preferences down the line except to ff,fg and labour.

Try to see what way it is going down to the last seat in my area.

If the SF fella has no chance then I will be voting tactically for any candidate that may keep out a FG/FFr especially FF.

Alan Kelly if needs be even if I do contribute to him licking himself to near death because he loves himself so much.

MadYaker

10/1 on Fine Gael winning the most seats?? Tempting

JP Liz V1

slegs wrote: »

Yes it has. FG might not be for you but it’s factual to say that the country has bounced back since the dark days of 2011 going from bankruptcy and close to 20% unemployment to full employment and a surplus again

The health crisis is the worse it has ever been

JDD

The only way the Shinners will get into a coalition is

a) They win most of the 42 seats that they have candidates up for election; and
b) FG do better than expected on Saturday.

If FG do better than expected, they're unlikely to relinquish the Taoiseach position to Martin. Martin has to be Taoiseach this time around, or he'll have to step down. So he might be more inclined to form a government with SF as the minority party (which they will be, because they haven't run enough candidates).

Then again, if FG see FF making overtures to SF, I don't think they'll want to be the party of opposition again. Perhaps, even if they do get the most candidates in, they might sacrifice Varadkar and agree another supply and confidence arrangement just to make sure they still have some kind of hand on the tiller.

Ultimately though, doesn't that just make FG and FF the same party? Maybe there will be reluctance to agree another supply and confidence, with Martin as Taoiseach, as it just makes a mockery of the fact that they are separate parties in the first place.

If I were SF, I wouldn't be running into any kind of coalition as the minority. Historically the minority party is always slaughtered. Why wouldn't they wait, bide their time, let FFFG not fix the same things they've been not fixing for the last four years, run double the amount of candidates in 2024 and hope they come out as the party with at least would be the majority party in a coalition? I think strategically it would be madness for them to go into a coalition now.

JDD

JDD wrote: »

If I were SF, I wouldn't be running into any kind of coalition as the minority. Historically the minority party is always slaughtered. Why wouldn't they wait, bide their time, let FFFG not fix the same things they've been not fixing for the last four years, run double the amount of candidates in 2024 and hope they come out as the party with at least would be the majority party in a coalition? I think strategically it would be madness for them to go into a coalition now.

If I vote for SF and they get a decent percentage of votes, I’d see that as giving me the two fingers and No Way would I vote for them again.

They backed out of forming a coalition once already. They can’t do it again.

JDD

I'm not sure a FF/SF coalition was seriously considered in 2016. They would have been way short of a majority and would needed to have a spectacular rainbow of parties in order to form a majority. The FG/FF supply and confidence was really the only option.

It'll all be about optics after this election. FF will want to make it look like they're seriously considering a coalition with SF to get more concessions from FG. FF probably don't seriously want to go into coalition with SF, as they know there's a high risk of SF bringing down the coalition within the year, and that can only help SF and harm FF. And then of course there's the whole historical thing of FF being the "real" republican party of Ireland.

If I were to put money on an outcome, it'll be another FF/FG supply and confidence with Martin as Taoiseach.

Billcarson

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

If I vote for SF and they get a decent percentage of votes, I’d see that as giving me the two fingers and No Way would I vote for them again.

They backed out of forming a coalition once already. They can’t do it again.

Indeed which would have them caught between a rock and a hard place. But if there was possibility with coalition with ff or fg, sf would surely have to go for it.

ELM327

JDD wrote: »

I'm not sure a FF/SF coalition was seriously considered in 2016. They would have been way short of a majority and would needed to have a spectacular rainbow of parties in order to form a majority. The FG/FF supply and confidence was really the only option.

It'll all be about optics after this election. FF will want to make it look like they're seriously considering a coalition with SF to get more concessions from FG. FF probably don't seriously want to go into coalition with SF, as they know there's a high risk of SF bringing down the coalition within the year, and that can only help SF and harm FF. And then of course there's the whole historical thing of FF being the "real" republican party of Ireland.

If I were to put money on an outcome, it'll be another FF/FG supply and confidence with Martin as Taoiseach.

Same, except I'd put Leo as Taoiseach with the agreement that he will be replaced by someone else in FG (Coveney? Harris?)

Pete_Cavan

JDD wrote: »

If I were SF, I wouldn't be running into any kind of coalition as the minority. Historically the minority party is always slaughtered. Why wouldn't they wait, bide their time, let FFFG not fix the same things they've been not fixing for the last four years, run double the amount of candidates in 2024 and hope they come out as the party with at least would be the majority party in a coalition? I think strategically it would be madness for them to go into a coalition now.

Much of the increase SF are getting is from people who want a change from FF and FG. Much of the SF campaign is based on them being the alternative to another FF and/or FG government. If SF refuse to go into government and the only other options are FF with C&S from FG or another election, SF won't be thanked one bit. If they choose to sit on the sidelines again, it will prove they are nothing more than an opposition party.

JDD

Indeed which would have them caught between a rock and a hard place. But if there was possibility with coalition with ff or fg, sf would surely have to go for it.

I think if they were seriously approached, yes they may go for it. But again, if I were SF I would bring down the government within 18 months - it won't really matter what the issue is - and force another election. Then I could retain my moral high ground "we promised the electorate we would get rid of the USC/increase taxes/lower the retirement age/yadayada and can't compromise on that and betray our votes" and then double the number of candidates and hope for the best.

Of course that instability would not benefit the country, nor do I believe that SF can deliver half the things they're promising if they got in as a majority party. At least not without borrowing hugely, and we all know where that got us before.

All that being said I am still considering voting for them. There's a chance they'll stay in a coalition for the full term. A small chance, but a chance all the same. There's a chance they'd temper their promises once they saw the reality of governing and Pearse Doherty - much as I think he's an attention grabbing muppet - is really excellent on finance/insurance/banks. An FF/SF coalition has a chance of being successful. SF would temper some of FF's cronyism, FF might actually have learnt from the crash and would not go mad on borrowing and spending.

It's probably unicorn land. But you gotta have hope right?

Tacitus Kilgore

ELM327 wrote: »

Same, except I'd put Leo as Taoiseach with the agreement that he will be replaced by someone else in FG (Coveney? Harris?)

Everything else (including rational/irrational possibilities) ignored - I would really like to see Coveney stay and look after all things Brexit.

lawred2

Wanderer78 wrote: »

again, this was actually a banking problem, not really a public financing problem, even though our government at the time played a significant role in its occurrence, oh, and ff will be in government in the very near future, whether we like it or not

FF made it a public problem

Pete_Cavan

JDD wrote: »

FF probably don't seriously want to go into coalition with SF, as they know there's a high risk of SF bringing down the coalition within the year, and that can only help SF and harm FF.

Don't agree with that at all. SF have been desperately telling us that they are up to the task of governing the country. If they refuse to go into government, or do and pull the plug without a very good reason (i.e. more than just "the big kids are mean to us"), they will prove that they have nothing more than bluster and won't be let near power again. Nobody wants another election within the next 24 months and anybody who causes one will get a serious kicking.

Pete_Cavan

Tacitus Kilgore wrote: »

Everything else (including rational/irrational possibilities) ignored - I would really like to see Coveney stay and look after all things Brexit.

Absolutely. Whoever FF put in is going to be inferior to Coveney. In fact, I think just about all FF Ministers will be inferior to the outgoing FG counterpart, they really have a poor front bench.

Tacitus Kilgore

Pete_Cavan wrote: »

Absolutely. Whoever FF put in is going to be inferior to Coveney. In fact, I think just about all FF Ministers will be inferior to the outgoing FG counterpart, they really have a poor front bench.

On Brexit, there can't be a better replacement, only lesser. On Brexit.

Kiith

I picked FG, but i'm not sure if i will actually vote for them tomorrow. Not sure who to pick to be honest.

FG - I think they have done a great job during the Brexit negotiations, and did a decent job of digging us out of the massive hole that FF caused.
FF - while i do blame them for a lot of the problems the country has faced over the last 15 years, i honestly think FG (or anyone else) would have done exactly the same in their shoes. They current policies don't seem all that different to FG's, so if i have to pick between the two, i'll probably got FG.
SF - their manifesto sounds great, which is why i question it. Not sure how they can possibly claim that it's workable, and looks like it would bankrupt the county.

If i'm being honest (and being a selfish prick), i will probably vote for the party that will financially benefit me the most.

Wanderer78

lawred2 wrote:

FF made it a public problem

They did indeed, and watch them stroll back in, like nothing happened!

Hamsterchops

JDD wrote: »

The only way the Shinners will get into a coalition is

a) They win most of the 42 seats that they have candidates up for election; and
b) FG do better than expected on Saturday.

If FG do better than expected, they're unlikely to relinquish the Taoiseach position to Martin. Martin has to be Taoiseach this time around, or he'll have to step down. So he might be more inclined to form a government with SF as the minority party (which they will be, because they haven't run enough candidates)........

I can see you put a lot of work into this extensive post, but I just want to concentrated on the one point above.

Michael Martins hatred for Sinn Fein is palpable, you can hear it in his voice, you can see it in his face, he really detests the Shinners, this is also reflected in every interview when asked about them, so I'm afraid that hypothetical option is a non starter, it's a dead duck - thankfully.

Pete_Cavan

Hamsterchops wrote: »

Michael Martins hatred for Sinn Fein is palpable, you can hear it in his voice, you can see it in his face, he really detests the Shinners, this is also reflected in every interview when asked about them, so I'm afraid that hypothetical option is a non starter, it's a dead duck - thankfully.

MM also wants to be Taoiseach and this is almost certainly his last chance. He can always play the "will of the people" card. If he won't take FF into government because of his feelings towards SF, I'm sure there are others in his party who will be willing to do so. There are plenty of FFers who see their rightful place as running the country and could remove MM if he denies them that.

AndrewJRenko

Hamsterchops wrote: »

I can see you put a lot of work into this extensive post, but I just want to concentrated on the one point above.

Michael Martins hatred for Sinn Fein is palpable, you can hear it in his voice, you can see it in his face, he really detests the Shinners, this is also reflected in every interview when asked about them, so I'm afraid that hypothetical option is a non starter, it's a dead duck - thankfully.

If the rest of FF are faced with a choice of holding onto Meehawl to stay in opposition or dumping Meehawl to be in government, it will be a case of 'Don't let the door hit your arse on the way out Meehawl'.

antimatterx

Just back from voting myself in DBN

I gave Catherine Noone No.1 and Richard Bruton No.2!

Come on Fine Gael!!!!

happyoutscan

antimatterx wrote: »

Just back from voting myself in DBN

I gave Catherine Noone No.1 and Richard Bruton No.2!

Come on Fine Gael!!!!

Ha ha that's funny.

Donald Trump

Wanderer78 wrote: »

again, this was actually a banking problem, not really a public financing problem, even though our government at the time played a significant role in its occurrence, oh, and ff will be in government in the very near future, whether we like it or not

Not quite true.
The public purse was over-reliant on taxes from construction sector
When the arse fell of out that, there was nothing to fill that void. Hence the sneaky levies etc.

antimatterx

happyoutscan wrote: »

Ha ha that's funny.

It's not. I guarantee you we're going to top the poll in terms of sears come Monday

This is it

antimatterx wrote: »

It's not. I guarantee you we're going to top the poll in terms of sears come Monday

Not a hope. And if you genuinely think so, Paddy Power would be delighted to take your money, win and you'd make a small fortune.

antimatterx

This is it wrote: »

Not a hope. And if you genuinely think so, Paddy Power would be delighted to take your money, win and you'd make a small fortune.

Way ahead of you. I've stuck money on FG most seats, and Leo being the Taoiseach after the election.

This is it

antimatterx wrote: »

Way ahead of you. I've stuck money on FG most seats, and Leo being the Taoiseach after the election.

I've some magic beans for sale if you fancy them?

Plumbthedepths

Hamsterchops wrote: »

I can see you put a lot of work into this extensive post, but I just want to concentrated on the one point above.

Michael Martins hatred for Sinn Fein is palpable, you can hear it in his voice, you can see it in his face, he really detests the Shinners, this is also reflected in every interview when asked about them, so I'm afraid that hypothetical option is a non starter, it's a dead duck - thankfully.

You really are naive despite your age if you think Martin will pass up the opportunity of being Taoiseach if SF are the only viable option.

McMurphy

antimatterx wrote: »

Way ahead of you. I've stuck money on FG most seats, and Leo being the Taoiseach after the election.

Ireland developing a space program involving getting a manned mission to Venus before August would have better odds tbh.

You're a fantasist.