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GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    DubInMeath wrote: »
    The ban on smoking in the workplace, which included pubs was brought in by Martin in 2004 if memory serves me correctly.

    Yes in March 2004.


  • Registered Users Posts: 10,117 ✭✭✭✭Junkyard Tom


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    The worst thing SF could do is go into government with FF.

    1. Go in for about a year
    2. Find an excuse to collapse the government blaming FF
    3. Go back to the electorate and bite another chunk out of FF/FG duopoly
    4. Form FFFGFG (FF FG free Government)


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,419 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    johnmcdnl wrote: »
    Or they'll claim they are being hampered by FF and try to use that to rile up more support because they tried? I get the feeling SF voters will be more lenient towards their own parties inaction than they allow for others.

    Lol you’ve a very naive view of the Irish electorate if you think that’s going to be the verdict on SF- it’s never happened for any other party, even in the midst of an economic meltdown where things were largely gone outside political parties control. The public weren’t sitting around saying it was someone’s else fault, they blame the party’s in power


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,419 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    1. Go in for about a year
    2. Find an excuse to collapse the government blaming FF
    3. Go back to the electorate and bite another chunk out of FF/FG duopoly
    4. Form FFFGFG (FF FG free Government)

    This is nuts- there’s nowhere to hide in government. As sf will soon find out.
    Other parties like labour and greens tried blame FF or FG. The electorate gave it zero quarter


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Jizique


    He will have to deal with the 'shadowy figures' in his own party first according to Eamonn O'Cuiv last night.

    'It is not one man's decision who we talk too, but the party's', was more or less what he said, echoed later by Pat The Cope in Donegal.

    The only people celebrating this morning are the hard-core Brexiters (the Sinners are still in bed as usual); having SF near govt will be a disaster for the next phase and let’s face it, SF were against everything to do with the EU and I am not sure that has changed - their traditional arguments about “our fish” were simply adopted by Farage and his mates


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  • Registered Users Posts: 40,236 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    The worst thing SF could do is go into government with FF. If things go pear shaped, they’ll go the same way the PDs went.

    This is going to be hilarious.

    Or FF could go the way of the PDs.

    The PDs "propped up" FF when they had 70+ seats.

    That vote is gone. Between FF and FG couldn't muster 45% of the vote.

    The same metrics don't apply anymore.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,719 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    McMurphy wrote: »
    Hard to take you seriously when your revisiting this, knowing it's not true and after stating that it would take at least 300k to throw up a social house on a site already owned by the state.

    300k on material and labour would build a fcuking monster of a house, if you have been gifted a site.

    Yeap, and congratulations you just showed up the blind non-factual populism behind the rise of SF in one go and why SF in government will be a very rude awakening for their acolytes.
    Note you didn't even question the fact that the SF €65,000 figure is pure fantasy.

    I posted about this a few times but Ill quote myself.

    https://www.boards.ie/vbulletin/showpost.php?p=112394637&postcount=1188
    markodaly wrote: »
    Good spot.

    There is no way one can build that many houses for that price.

    The cost to build a 1500 square foot house in Dublin/Greater Dublin area is as follows.

    Hard Cost: Cement, finishes, foundation, brickes, cost of labour etc..
    €180,000

    Soft Cost: Land, Utility Levies, Fees, Certifications etc..
    €144,000

    Developer & VAT: Developer Margin @ 15%, Vat @13.5%
    €99,000

    Total: €421,000

    https://webcache.googleusercontent.com/search?q=cache:WLIDBHH7faUJ:https://www.irishtimes.com/life-and-style/homes-and-property/why-does-a-new-house-cost-what-it-does-1.4001085+&cd=21&hl=en&ct=clnk&gl=au

    Now, you can build smaller and a bit cheaper, but this brings these costs down to over €300,000

    So, where are these €65,000 houses are going to come from?

    Then people are surprised that we the Irish people dont vote for SF en-mass?


    The hard cost of building a house is €180,000.
    That excludes land.

    On top of this, you also have the mandatory fees associated to build a house, as stated above.
    Even with free land, It will cost you the guts of €340,000 to build a 1500 sq foot home in the greater Dublin region.

    You may be able to scrimp 10-15% off that by building smaller sub 100sq meter homes, but the cost of €300k per house with free land holds true.

    Now show us your figures, if you have any of course.
    Otherwise, you are talking $hite.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Im curious now. Which constituency was that.

    Cork North West


  • Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    How likely is it that Mary Lou becomes taoiseach? If the small left wing parties row in behind her, she'll probably have more votes than Micheál for taoiseach.

    Although I don't think there's any chance FF/FG would entertain being a junior partner, and I don't think SF would go for being a junior party either if Mary Lou get the most votes for taoiseach.

    So I think it'll either be a FF/FG/GP coalition or a revote. Both options would be good for SF, and I think they're smart enough to realise that.
    A likely as it was for GA. Neither FG nor FF would vote for her, Labour & Greens would also be doubtful.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    The worst thing SF could do is go into government with FF. If things go pear shaped, they’ll go the same way the PDs went.

    This is going to be hilarious.

    I don't think you'll find it just as hilarious if it pans out that what might actually happen is a second election, and the shinners romp home with another 10 -15 extra seats again.

    Don't be naive in believing they will allow themselves to be mudguards and get eaten up like labour etc.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 69,257 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Jizique wrote: »
    The only people celebrating this morning are the hard-core Brexiters (the Sinners are still in bed as usual); having SF near govt will be a disaster for the next phase and let’s face it, SF were against everything to do with the EU and I am not sure that has changed - their traditional arguments about “our fish” were simply adopted by Farage and his mates

    How will it be a 'disaster'?

    SF were way ahead of FG on Brexit and what was necessary here to avoid a border.
    Look up the debate in the Dáil when Enda was far from convinced about special status for NI.

    *And take the finger off the panic button not to mention the tired old stereotyping invective one


  • Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    Boggles wrote: »
    Or FF could go the way of the PDs.

    The PDs "propped up" FF when they had 70+ seats.

    That vote is gone. Between FF and FG couldn't muster 45% of the vote.

    The same metrics don't apply anymore.

    FF seem to have a core vote that doesn't abandon them even when they completely wreck the economy. SF has more fickle vote. The same vote abandoned Labour. Vote share of FF and FG is going down but where the vote on the other side is going seems to be fairly unstable. Maybe SF will get stable vote but you can't claim that after one election especially considering how badly previous elections went. I think they have better chance keeping or increasing the vote in opposition.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,719 ✭✭✭✭markodaly



    I laid out my own personal view of what I would like to see happen. And it is based on a desire for fundamental change to the body politic here.

    Fundamental change..... by doing NOTHING..... change alright :rolleyes::):pac:
    The long game works for the longterm.

    So the people SF were fighting for in this election, the people renting, the people paying childcare fees, the people on trolleys, the people left behind.... they can wait a few more years, while SF play the long game for power...

    So again, what is the purpose of SF again? Or is it all a pretence of just gaining power, with the veneer of fighting for the little guy?
    That is what FF did in the past, now SF seems to be stealing those clothes.

    At least you're honest that SF don't give two ****s about their voters. World Cup winners for being hurlers on the ditch.


  • Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭thequarefellow


    So many people are still surprised about the surge in the SF vote. The only thing that surprises me is that so many still vote for FF expecting change.


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,236 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    meeeeh wrote: »
    FF seem to have a core vote that doesn't abandon

    The Grim reaper is forcing people to abandon FF. SF will be going into government with FF if it happens more or less as equals, that hasn't happened before, so citing the history of the PDs or Labour collapsing goes out the window. Also SF have been up front about forming government with anyone.

    I'm sorry but if the largest party sitting in the wings for 9 years can't muster 55+ seats and are only getting what they are because SF didn't run more candidates.

    The writing is well and truly on the wall for them and FG.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    markodaly wrote: »
    Yeap, and congratulations you just showed up the blind non-factual populism behind the rise of SF in one go and why SF in government will be a very rude awakening for their acolytes.
    Note you didn't even question the fact that the SF €65,000 figure is pure fantasy.

    I didn't question it as there wasn't a need to question it (again) you know well that they are not claiming to be able to build houses at 65k a pop, so you might have well said they were going to provide houses for the price of a can of coke and a bag of monster munch tbh.

    Your figure is the fantasy one.

    Unless, maybe you're prepared to show folks where they're claiming any such thing?

    Sometimes it's better to stop digging mark, you're now in that hole.


  • Registered Users Posts: 1,912 ✭✭✭Jizique


    road_high wrote: »
    Lol you’ve a very naive view of the Irish electorate if you think that’s going to be the verdict on SF- it’s never happened for any other party, even in the midst of an economic meltdown where things were largely gone outside political parties control. The public weren’t sitting around saying it was someone’s else fault, they blame the party’s in power

    Hard not to have a naive view of the Irish electorate (and the UK and the US one).
    FF are back as largest party by seats a decade after they destroyed the economy.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    McMurphy wrote: »
    I didn't question it as there wasn't a need to question it (again) you know well that they are not claiming to be able to build houses at 65k a pop, so you might have well said they were going to provide houses for the price of a can of coke and a bag of monster munch tbh.

    Your figure is the fantasy one.

    Unless, maybe you're prepared to show folks where they're claiming any such thing?

    Sometimes it's better to stop digging mark, you're now in that hole.

    O'Broin himself estimated average build cost at 230k.

    Someone on the forum came up with the 65k figure on their Fisher Price kids calculator and the loo las went wild with it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,719 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    Fr_Dougal wrote: »
    The worst thing SF could do is go into government with FF. If things go pear shaped, they’ll go the same way the PDs went.

    This is going to be hilarious.

    It's the firm bookies favorite now.

    SF can claim victory, but if they walk off the pitch, yet again, those voters will desert them.
    FF and SF are stuck now, the two of them will have to grin and bear it while they form a government, maybe with a few Indes or the Greens or even the SD to bolster the numbers.

    At least it will be a strong government. SF can dictate terms a bit, they will want an equal split of the cabinet seats anyway.

    Then the rest of Ireland can watch and see this experiment unfold.
    We can expect Utopia in as little as 2 years. :D


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,174 ✭✭✭limnam


    So many people are still surprised about the surge in the SF vote. The only thing that surprises me is that so many still vote for FF expecting change.


    It looks like there's a high % that don't want change.


    They're happy with what FF/FG are doing.


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  • Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    Boggles wrote: »
    The Grim reaper is forcing people to abandon FF. SF will be going into government with FF if it happens more or less as equals, that hasn't happened before, so citing the history of the PDs or Labour collapsing goes out the window. Also SF have been up front about forming government with anyone.

    I'm sorry but if the largest party sitting in the wings for 9 years can't muster 55+ seats and are only getting what they are because SF didn't run more candidates.

    The writing is well and truly on the wall for them and FG.

    I'm not citing Labour or PDs because they were smaller parties I'm citing them because electorate was disappointed when they couldn't keep their promises. It's easy in opposition because you can criticize without doing anything. I can guarantee you the housing numbers they promised won't be there and similar in health. There are just not enough people to build houses or work in health.


  • Registered Users Posts: 13,365 ✭✭✭✭McMurphy


    Yurt! wrote: »
    O'Broin himself estimated average build cost at 230k.

    Someone on the forum came up with the 65k figure on their Fisher Price kids calculator and the loo las went wild with it.


    I wouldn't mind only it's been already been pulled apart, and yet they're straight back up again and trying to run with it once more.

    Mark will provide his 65k source though. I'm certain of it.


  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    Jizique wrote: »
    Hard not to have a naive view of the Irish electorate (and the UK and the US one).
    FF are back as largest party by seats a decade after they destroyed the economy.

    My father voted for them, my grandfather voted for them, and seeing as I am incapable of independent thought, I will vote for them too.


  • Registered Users Posts: 40,236 ✭✭✭✭Boggles


    limnam wrote: »
    It looks like there's a high % that don't want change.


    They're happy with what FF/FG are doing.

    Jesus that is some desperate sugar coating

    Below 45% for both parties is not a high %.

    It's an absolute seismic shift in Irish politics.

    They just got battered, I can't imagine either of them wanting to enter into a supply and confidence agreement with anyone.

    There is no reward from it.


  • Registered Users Posts: 879 ✭✭✭xl500


    SF now need to show leadership and not be influenced by Vested interests as FF are like Developers etc

    what has happened to our Social Housing Policy is a disgrace giving Public Land to Private developers to built some social houses and the rest for themselves

    We built major Social Housing Schemes in the past and can do it again but take the profiteers out of it

    Set up a Housing Agency and directly build Social Housing as before look at Cabra,Crumlin,Driminagh,etc etc all built by Direct Labour

    SF now need to start some major social projects in Transport Health Childcare etc

    I know people say they will break the country well we have 200 billion Debt directly associated with FF so its hard to beat that also country was broke IMF had to Bail us out

    The 200 Billion is causing us major problems and should be re-negotiated imagine what we could do with the 3 Billion Interest alone we are paying every year

    But FF Broke this Country and its going to need brave Leadership to rebuild it

    Why are we not like Nordic Countries leading the way its because of FF Cute Hoorism over the last 40 years in Particular

    Charlie Haughey,P Flynn,Bertie won it on the horses Ahern,Liam Lawlor,Ray Burke,

    Come on how could SF be worse than the above


  • Registered Users Posts: 14,719 ✭✭✭✭markodaly


    road_high wrote: »
    Well what about their mandate for “change” then? Have been hearing for years all the easy answers they have- the public want to see those in action now. SF will have to cobble together a government, with ff or otherwise

    Their mandate for change, is apparently a mandate to run for the hills.
    Secretly MLD must be $hitting herself that she now has to actually make decisions in government, decisions that will piss people off and be accountable.


  • Banned (with Prison Access) Posts: 3,829 ✭✭✭Cork Boy 53


    markodaly wrote: »
    It's the firm bookies favorite now.

    SF can claim victory, but if they walk off the pitch, yet again, those voters will desert them.
    FF and SF are stuck now, the two of them will have to grin and bear it while they form a government, maybe with a few Indes or the Greens or even the SD to bolster the numbers.

    At least it will be a strong government. SF can dictate terms a bit, they will want an equal split of the cabinet seats anyway.

    Then the rest of Ireland can watch and see this experiment unfold.
    We can expect Utopia in as little as 2 years. :D

    And a return visit from the IMF/Troika soon after that.


  • Registered Users Posts: 9,381 ✭✭✭Yurt2


    I'm loving, absolutely loving, how SF are driving certain people absolutely mental.

    I hope every Margret Cash in the country gets their 6-bed forever home with room for a pony. I'll take the tax rise, it will all be worth it watching the sad acts wear their fingers into bloody stumps on their keyboards.

    That's the Ireland I want to see.


  • Registered Users Posts: 19,419 ✭✭✭✭road_high


    xl500 wrote: »
    SF now need to show leadership and not be influenced by Vested interests as FF are like Developers etc

    what has happened to our Social Housing Policy is a disgrace giving Public Land to Private developers to built some social houses and the rest for themselves

    We built major Social Housing Schemes in the past and can do it again but take the profiteers out of it

    Set up a Housing Agency and directly build Social Housing as before look at Cabra,Crumlin,Driminagh,etc etc all built by Direct Labour

    SF now need to start some major social projects in Transport Health Childcare etc

    I know people say they will break the country well we have 200 billion Debt directly associated with FF so its hard to beat that also country was broke IMF had to Bail us out

    The 200 Billion is causing us major problems and should be re-negotiated imagine what we could do with the 3 Billion Interest alone we are paying every year

    But FF Broke this Country and its going to need brave Leadership to rebuild it

    Why are we not like Nordic Countries leading the way its because of FF Cute Hoorism over the last 40 years in Particular

    Charlie Haughey,P Flynn,Bertie won it on the horses Ahern,Liam Lawlor,Ray Burke,

    Come on how could SF be worse than the above

    Well who's stopping them? They have a mandate, returned as one of the biggest parties, and biggest by % vote. They must now go into power with FF or sort out an alternative government via others.


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  • Posts: 0 [Deleted User]


    I wonder will any of the current members of the Dail resign completely from politics over the head of this?


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