GE Exit Poll 10 pm

is_that_so

Fann Linn wrote: »

So the above won't coalesce as they see ultimate destruction and yet the same ones are clamouring for SF to do just that.

A cursory glance at Howlin will see him and his party bumping along the floor at 4%.

That awaits SF if they get it wrong this time around.

Parties have members, as you well know. They get to decide these things not the TDs or leader. There's a whole lot of clamouring going on, on all sorts of stuff.

thequarefellow

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Let’s park Marko’s figure for a second. You will not build a housing unit for €65k, not a hope. Double that and you’re getting close. So let’s say a unit costs €100k, that’s a total of €10bn, SF now has a deficit of €3.5 bn.

Now take away the €14bn Apple money that SF have included in their figures, let’s say we get to keep €3bn of that(which is an overestimate).

€3.5bn + €11bn = a deficit of €14.5bn in their figures already.

We’ll have the IMF back in jij time.

Now don’t get me wrong, I think a lot of their ideas are great, but they have no way of funding them. I can see why a lot of people voted for them.

SF voters are not as ill-informed as some would like to think. They have seen election promises come and go. This is a vote against FF and FG.

LeinsterDub

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Look Mary Lou has even said the people want SF in government.

They know they need to do it now

The people also want to see FF or FG in government. Hence the 3 way tie

ILoveYourVibes

Boggles wrote: »

What?

The onus is on SF to form a government with 2 parties who have categorically ruled out forming a government with them?

Are you actually reading what you are typing or have you lemon juice in your eyes?

FF have just said they would talk to SF today.

Come on we all know FF were always going to be the party to do this.

johnmcdnl

xl500 wrote: »

I know people say they will break the country well we have 200 billion Debt directly associated with FF so its hard to beat that also country was broke IMF had to Bail us out

The 200 Billion is causing us major problems and should be re-negotiated imagine what we could do with the 3 Billion Interest alone we are paying every year

Have FG literally never had the idea to try to negotiate a better interest rate on the 200bn of debt we have? How foolish of them.

Or perhaps that's why FG have been doing as much as they can over the past decade to try to get us running a surplus and to generally stabilise everything to improve our credit rating so that we actually can borrow at sensible rates again?

And also, it's not hard to beat that - you just go on a foolish borrowing and spending spree based on poor economic policies, and suddenly your debt is 300bn and your credit rating is dropping and investment starts to dry up.

road_high

Boggles wrote: »

What?

The onus is on SF to form a government with 2 parties who have categorically ruled out forming a government with them?

Are you actually reading what you are typing or have you lemon juice in your eyes?

Ff haven’t exactly ruled sf out. So there you go, there’s your potential new government. No need to be confused at all

is_that_so

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Yeah keeping their seats and that reason is declining rapidly. They are basically the same party when it comes to policy

As I keep saying it's a decision for members so don't assume I'm defending any party. They will do what they feel is right.

Boggles

road_high wrote: »

Ff haven’t exactly ruled sf out. So there you go, there’s your potential new government. No need to be confused at all

On the campaign trail? They couldn't have been more clear.

The past 24 hours no one I have heard asked answered the question.

But if you are talking mandate of the people.

The Coalition is FF/FG. Get it done.

#basicmaths.

McMurphy

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Let’s park Marko’s figure for a second. You will not build a housing unit for €65k, not a hope. Double that and you’re getting close. So let’s say a unit costs €100k, that’s a total of €10bn, SF now has a deficit of €3.5 bn.

Now take away the €14bn Apple money that SF have included in their figures, let’s say we get to keep €3bn of that(which is an overestimate).

€3.5bn + €11bn = a deficit of €14.5bn in their figures already.

We’ll have the IMF back in jij time.

Now don’t get me wrong, I think a lot of their ideas are great, but they have no way of funding them. I can see why a lot of people voted for them.

Tbf you're missing the point, what mark did was spout a lie about the 65k, he was corrected on it that 65k was not what anyone was saying the price of the houses were going to cost, anywhere.

It was pointed out that it was closer to 130k per unit (as the land is already state owned land, and considering the builds are bulk builds, that's far from the realms of possiblity)

He then came back, doubled down on his brain fart, and claimed it would take 300k minimum to build a fooking council house on a site you already own.

Tell a lie to begin with, run with it, then double down on it.

If Mark resides in a world where it takes 300k on labour and materials only for a social fookin house, it's no wonder the fg party fcuked it up in housing so badly.

rob316

FF/SF coalition is the only way but more than likely SF will collapse it after 6 months and chance going back to the polls and getting more seats.

It's a bad idea for FF letting SF going to the opposition for 5 years and risk been wiped out in the next GE.

If I'm Martin I'm throwing SF to the sharks. Give them housing and health and see how they do.

FG aren't in the discussion here, they have absolutely no mandate for government. Coveney will replace Leo and they will rebuild on the opposition benches. A grand coalition would spell the end for one of them no doubt.

Idbatterim

Fg have put this country in a perelous position, after years of inaction and its a disgrace! Totally reckless!

I voted SF to give FFG a serious kick up the hole. We were between a rock and hard place. The FFG inaction farce cant go on, BUT I wonder did we give FFG too big a kick up the hole. The next few days will be interesting!

Boggles

rob316 wrote: »

If I'm Martin I'm throwing SF to the sharks. Give them housing and health and see how they do.

SF want those briefs.

Also didn't Harris and Murphy just get reelected?

road_high

Idbatterim wrote: »

Fg have put this country in a perelous position, after years of inaction and its a disgrace! Totally reckless!

Well good thing we have sf to sort it all out then.

Jinglejangle69

Idbatterim wrote: »

Fg have put this country in a perelous position, after years of inaction and its a disgrace! Totally reckless!

And they have been punished.

Its done, can we move on from the usual bashing parties and talk about the new government.

is_that_so

johnmcdnl wrote: »

Have FG literally never had the idea to try to negotiate a better interest rate on the 200bn of debt we have? How foolish of them.

Or perhaps that's why FG have been doing as much as they can over the past decade to try to get us running a surplus and to generally stabilise everything to improve our credit rating so that we actually can borrow at sensible rates again?

And also, it's not hard to beat that - you just go on a foolish borrowing and spending spree based on poor economic policies, and suddenly your debt is 300bn and your credit rating is dropping and investment starts to dry up.

It's not a FF/FG/government purview. The NTMA manages debt and older more expensive debt has been replaced with much cheaper debt. They'll continue to do that.

ILoveYourVibes

rob316 wrote: »

FF/SF coalition is the only way but more than likely SF will collapse it after 6 months and chance going back to the polls and getting more seats.

It's a bad idea for FF letting SF going to the opposition for 5 years and risk been wiped out in the next GE.

If I'm Martin I'm throwing SF to the sharks. Give them housing and health and see how they do.

FG aren't in the discussion here, they have absolutely no mandate for government. Coveney will replace Leo and they will rebuild on the opposition benches. A grand coalition would spell the end for one of them no doubt.

I see the same thing. Although if sinn fein get into govt. They will want to stay.

Its not like the north ...they get a chance and scupper it ..that's it ...voters will leave them. They don't have the kind of voter loyalty here that they do in NI. They know that. No matter what they do in the north their voters will keep voting sf. We don't have that divide here.

Yurt2

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Let’s park Marko’s figure for a second. You will not build a housing unit for €65k, not a hope. Double that and you’re getting close. So let’s say a unit costs €100k, that’s a total of €10bn, SF now has a deficit of €3.5 bn.

Now take away the €14bn Apple money that SF have included in their figures, let’s say we get to keep €3bn of that(which is an overestimate).

€3.5bn + €11bn = a deficit of €14.5bn in their figures already.

We’ll have the IMF back in jij time.

Now don’t get me wrong, I think a lot of their ideas are great, but they have no way of funding them. I can see why a lot of people voted for them.

Here's a decent article that runs the figures and cuts away the BS being touted on her re: SF's housing policy.

It nukes the 65k myth being peddled in the first couple of paragraphs.

It's ambitious, has some question marks over it, but it's the best articulated plan to solve the mess out of the big 3.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/election-2020-is-sinn-f%25C3%25A9in-s-housing-policy-credible-1.4163859%3

FrancieBrady

If anyone was foolish enough to fall, once again, for the contents of the party's mainfesto's they might be interested to know that they are all shredding them at the moment and that will be the last that will be heard of them.

The are the equivalent of glossy estate agent brochures.

road_high

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

And they have been punished.

Its done, can we move on from the usual bashing parties and talk about the new government.

Hear hear. Tired of hearing the excuses and yesterday’s battles. Sf have a clear mandate to govern on a wave of change- the hard work begins, not more expensive elections to get a more suited outcome. Saturday is the will of the people

Sir Oxman

road_high wrote: »

So with SF party preservation is the main goal not running the country? Wow

As throughout last night, posters are laying out the reality.
They aren't spokespeople for SF and don't have a direct line into MLMcD's mind.

This is simple maths (at this time) and simple English - both possible partners for govt have pre-emptively ruled out any talking, never-mind actual coalition after talking with SF .


There is no other partnership possible other than SF-FF+, SF-FG+ or FF-FG
But two of those have been ruled out by...?

ILoveYourVibes

Its interesting though ..while one third of people voted for a leftist party ...two thirds voted for centre right parties.

I see irish politics forming that kind of paradigm from here on in.

Boggles

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

And they have been punished.

Its done, can we move on from the usual bashing parties and talk about the new government.

Not even half the seats have been filled yet, stall the ball!

is_that_so

Sir Oxman wrote: »

As throughout last night, posters are laying out the reality.
They aren't spokespeople for SF and don't have a direct line into MLMcD's mind.

This is simple maths (at this time) and simple English - both possible partners for govt have pre-emptively ruled out any talking, never-mind actual coalition after talking with SF .


There is no other partnership possible other than SF-FF+, SF-FG+ or FF-FG
But two of those have been ruled out by...?

By implication the rank and file members of both parties.

ILoveYourVibes

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If anyone was foolish enough to fall, once again, for the contents of the party's mainfesto's they might be interested to know that they are all shredding them at the moment and that will be the last that will be heard of them.

The are the equivalent of glossy estate agent brochures.

That is the same with every party.

Boggles

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Its interesting though ..while one third of people voted for a leftist party ...two thirds voted for centre right parties.

I see irish politics forming that kind of paradigm from here on in.

What are Greens? Far Right?

What about the rest of them.

Fann Linn

road_high wrote: »

So with SF party preservation is the main goal not running the country? Wow

But no one wants to work with them according to LV and MM,

Did loop da loop Ruth Coppinger get ousted?

is_that_so

Strawberry Milkshake wrote: »

Did loop da loop Ruth Coppinger get ousted?

She did

rob316

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

Its interesting though ..while one third of people voted for a leftist party ...two thirds voted for centre right parties.

I see irish politics forming that kind of paradigm from here on in.

The big 2 have only 45% of the vote combined, that's the game changer for me out of all these stats. There was a time they had 80%.
Its quite clear FG are not the party we want in power going off the last 2 elections.

road_high

Fann Linn wrote: »

But no one wants to work with them according to LV and MM,

FF will work with sf. Possibly with Green support