GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Boggles

4th lowest turnout for a GE in history.

That makes it even grimmer for FF and FG.

Brendan Bendar

Grab All Association wrote: »

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil can’t afford another general election, Sinn Féin know exactly where they’ll win seats now and the people who wanted to vote Sinn Féin but chose Fianna Fáil purely because of the local election results and to get FG out will vote Sinn Fein this time around.

Mary Lou has them over a barrel

Incorrect, it’s ML who is over the barrel.

Claiming to have a mandate,quite truthfully.

Now go on and sort out that mandate.

Plumbthedepths

threeball wrote: »

There was a girl on newstalk Friday speaking about this. She said the figures are collected differently as just complaining about accommodation is enough to declare yourself as homeless, despite having a house. Varadkars figures included these people but the actual figure was about 14 to 15k so still very high.

So not the 20k Leo claimed. Cheers.

threeball

Boggles wrote: »

4th lowest turnout for a GE in history.

That makes it even grimmer for FF and FG.

The low turnout was generally the older demographic which they are putting down to the weather so may not be as from as you are making out. A mobilised older vote and extra candidates could see the SF vote decimated next time out.

Cork Boy 53

Muahahaha wrote: »

Wouldnt be so sure of that, the exit poll showed SF leading FFG in some ABC1 age categories. SF led in all age groups from 18 to 65 too.

In any case just heard that the election of Chris Andrews in Dublin South is the first time a Sinn Fein candidate has been elected in that constituency since Constance Markievicz in 1918. One of the wealthiest areas in the country electing a Shinner shows things have changed.

A former Fianna Failer and member of the Andrews dynasty.

gmisk

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Incorrect, it’s ML who is over the barrel.

Claiming to have a mandate,quite truthfully.

Now go on and sort out that mandate.

If FF or FG (and someone else) won't go in with them they won't have the numbers so not just on them let's be honest

threeball

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

So not the 20k Leo claimed. Cheers.

It depends what figures you include. All these things have nuances when you cross borders. Our weather warnings have different criteria to theirs for example so a storm that gets orange status here might only get yellow there or vice versa.

Plumbthedepths

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Incorrect, it’s ML who is over the barrel.

Claiming to have a mandate,quite truthfully.

Now go on and sort out that mandate.

Dude ML is willing to form a government, she has contacted all parties. It's looking like FG and FF are taking their ball and going home. The optics for FG/FF ain't good no matter what you claim.
What of the mandate of FF/FG, combined 43% of the voters voted for them yet they are ignoring them.
The poster was right ML has them over a barrel, it's a win win for SF.

Muahahaha

freshpopcorn wrote: »

I wonder did anybody run for Sinn Fein thinking they wouldn't get elected based on the results they got in the local elections last year and now they are wondering what are they going to do.

There is a few but the best I've heard of yet was Clares Violent-Ann Wynn. She ran in the local elections last year and didnt get elected with only 385 votes. For this election she put up exactly 20 posters in all of Co.Clare and came home with 10,000+ votes in a traditional FFG stronghold. Completely out of the blue.

Plumbthedepths

threeball wrote: »

It depends what figures you include. All these things have nuances when you cross borders. Our weather warnings have different criteria to theirs for example so a storm that gets orange status here might only get yellow there or vice versa.

Still not the 20k Leo claimed as you can't apply the criteria used in the Republic to the North.

pjohnson

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Dude ML is willing to form a government, she has contacted all parties. It's looking like FG and FF are taking their ball and going home. The optics for FG/FF ain't good no matter what you claim.
What of the mandate of FF/FG, combined 43% of the voters voted for them yet they are ignoring them.
The poster was right ML has them over a barrel, it's a win win for SF.

The attempts to spin this as anything else is amazing :pac:

FreeThePants

threeball wrote: »

A mobilised older vote and extra candidates could see the SF vote decimated next time out.

Assuming they form a government, I think their actual performance is going to be much more important. Some ofthose older voters who stayed home for the weather, sino won't be with us in afew years time. Meanwhile the demographic swell of younger voters becoming eligible to do so is only going to grow, and if this year's election is anything to go by, they won't have any issues with voting SF (if that is, SF don't sh*t the bed while in power).

smelly sock

Muahahaha wrote: »

Wouldnt be so sure of that, the exit poll showed SF leading FFG in some ABC1 age categories. SF led in all age groups from 18 to 65 too.

In any case just heard that the election of Chris Andrews in Dublin South is the first time a Sinn Fein candidate has been elected in that constituency since Constance Markievicz in 1918. One of the wealthiest areas in the country electing a Shinner shows things have changed.

Its the first time on North Kildare also since 1918.

A great day.

dark crystal

Muahahaha wrote: »

There is a few but the best I've heard of yet was Clares Violent-Ann Wynn. She ran in the local elections last year and didnt get elected with only 385 votes. For this election she put up exactly 20 posters in all of Co.Clare and came home with 10,000+ votes in a traditional FFG stronghold. Completely out of the blue.

Freudian slip? :pac:

Hurrache

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Dude ML is willing to form a government, she has contacted all parties. It's looking like FG and FF are taking their ball and going home.

I don't understand this. The theme of this election was a change, why are people complaining then that FF or FG won't immediately jump back into their seats? Maybe the reality of how governments work the last couple of decades kicking in?

Itssoeasy

What in the name of Jesus was David cullinane thinking saying what he said ? I mean massive vote in Waterford and given how the numbers are he'd be a minister and he may still be but that was really stupid thing to do. I mean in a day and age where there are cameras everywhere he and all politicians need to be mindful of what they say.

easypazz

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Dude ML is willing to form a government, she has contacted all parties. It's looking like FG and FF are taking their ball and going home. The optics for FG/FF ain't good no matter what you claim.
What of the mandate of FF/FG, combined 43% of the voters voted for them yet they are ignoring them.
The poster was right ML has them over a barrel, it's a win win for SF.

Good analysis.

threeball

FreeThePants wrote: »

Assuming they form a government, I think their actual performance is going to be much more important. Some ofthose older voters who stayed home for the weather, sino won't be with us in afew years time. Meanwhile the demographic swell of younger voters becoming eligible to do so is only going to grow, and if this year's election is anything to go by, they won't have any issues with voting SF (if that is, SF don't sh*t the bed while in power).

Big If

Lackey

Hurrache wrote: »

You see, this is exactly the problem with some in the electorate. The facts are available for all to see and look up, but they prefer little sound bites fed to them to reinforce their confirmation bias.

You are right the facts are available for all to see
People more intelligent than you or I quit their job because of the outsourcing of smear tests, they knew exactly what would happen

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2018/0430/959157-national-cervical-screening-programme/

Condescending to people for reaching to the only helping hand they have when it comes to their special needs kids or sick parents etc
be it the Healy Raes or Sinn Fein or anyone else
Is the reason for the election results we are looking at.

Foxtrol

GooglePlus wrote: »

Will you go away, they cut corners financially and left load of women going on about their lives as their ovaries killed them from within.

All to save money, they outsourced the testing to the cheapest bidder.

A lot of times you're dammed if you do or dammed if you don't while in government.

People rage about overspending on the children's hospital while at the same time are understandably upset about cost saving that may have led to these issues.

Most of the time the minister has little visibility into a lot of these decisions and whether it is SF or FG or FF person in charge the same civil servant will be making the decision.

firemansam4

So it's looking like FF will win with 38 seats from what I can see.

namloc1980

38. Got a break with the transfers in Longford Westmeath

Edgware

If FF FG and Greens learn a lesson and tackles the issues raised a lot of this great youth vote will be happy looking after their middle class lives and will know where their bread is buttered

S.F. know that they have only one chance. We've seen it all before with the P.D.s and Labour

Grab All Association

As I’ve pointed out on here the past couple of weeks. This election has proven that parliamentary politics has well and truly run its course in Ireland and I don’t see any of these major parties ever having a majority ever again. In the coming decade there’ll have to be an alternative political system.

threeball

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Still not the 20k Leo claimed as you can't apply the criteria used in the Republic to the North.

She did say that those claims didn't allow for number of people claiming homelessness as every claim is only counted as one and not a record of a family for example so the real answer is no one really knows. He spins it one way but you're now spinning it another with even less information.

Hurrache

Lackey wrote: »

You are right the facts are available for all to see
People more intelligent than you or I quit their job because of the outsourcing of smear tests, they knew exactly what would happen

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2018/0430/959157-national-cervical-screening-programme/

Condescending to people for reaching to the only helping hand they have when it comes to their special needs kids or sick parents etc
be it the Healy Raes or Sinn Fein or anyone else
Is the reason for the election results we are looking at.

You're moving goalposts, it's started with claims the health service is under funded, (it's right at the European average per gdp) which I pointed out is false.

freshpopcorn

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What in the name of Jesus was David cullinane thinking saying what he said ? I mean massive vote in Waterford and given how the numbers are he'd be a minister and he may still be but that was really stupid thing to do. I mean in a day and age where there are cameras everywhere he and all politicians need to be mindful of what they say.

I know a few people into Sinn Fein and they'd fully support him in what he did.

Sir Oxman

firemansam4 wrote: »

So it's looking like FF will win with 38 seats from what I can see.

LOL

Edit: i don't mean that disparagingly to you
Just the thought of FF or the ,media declaring them the winners...

Muahahaha

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Link to that ABC1 information?

It was on the main IT.MRBI Ipsos exit poll, should be in here if youve enough articles left, I dont so cant check right now
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/detailed-election-2020-exit-poll-results-how-voters-answered-15-questions-1.4167016?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fdetailed-election-2020-exit-poll-results-how-voters-answered-15-questions-1.4167016

dark crystal wrote: »

Freudian slip? :pac:

no, auto correct. But Im not changing it now :pac:

Hurrache

Grab All Association wrote: »

As I’ve pointed out on here the past couple of weeks. This election has proven that parliamentary politics has well and truly run its course in Ireland and I don’t see any of these major parties ever having a majority ever again. In the coming decade there’ll have to be an alternative political system.

There hasn't been one in years.