GE Exit Poll 10 pm

threeball

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Still not the 20k Leo claimed as you can't apply the criteria used in the Republic to the North.

She did say that those claims didn't allow for number of people claiming homelessness as every claim is only counted as one and not a record of a family for example so the real answer is no one really knows. He spins it one way but you're now spinning it another with even less information.

Hurrache

Lackey wrote: »

You are right the facts are available for all to see
People more intelligent than you or I quit their job because of the outsourcing of smear tests, they knew exactly what would happen

https://www.rte.ie/news/health/2018/0430/959157-national-cervical-screening-programme/

Condescending to people for reaching to the only helping hand they have when it comes to their special needs kids or sick parents etc
be it the Healy Raes or Sinn Fein or anyone else
Is the reason for the election results we are looking at.

You're moving goalposts, it's started with claims the health service is under funded, (it's right at the European average per gdp) which I pointed out is false.

freshpopcorn

Itssoeasy wrote: »

What in the name of Jesus was David cullinane thinking saying what he said ? I mean massive vote in Waterford and given how the numbers are he'd be a minister and he may still be but that was really stupid thing to do. I mean in a day and age where there are cameras everywhere he and all politicians need to be mindful of what they say.

I know a few people into Sinn Fein and they'd fully support him in what he did.

Sir Oxman

firemansam4 wrote: »

So it's looking like FF will win with 38 seats from what I can see.

LOL

Edit: i don't mean that disparagingly to you
Just the thought of FF or the ,media declaring them the winners...

Muahahaha

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Link to that ABC1 information?

It was on the main IT.MRBI Ipsos exit poll, should be in here if youve enough articles left, I dont so cant check right now
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/detailed-election-2020-exit-poll-results-how-voters-answered-15-questions-1.4167016?mode=sample&auth-failed=1&pw-origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.irishtimes.com%2Fnews%2Fpolitics%2Fdetailed-election-2020-exit-poll-results-how-voters-answered-15-questions-1.4167016

dark crystal wrote: »

Freudian slip? :pac:

no, auto correct. But Im not changing it now :pac:

Hurrache

Grab All Association wrote: »

As I’ve pointed out on here the past couple of weeks. This election has proven that parliamentary politics has well and truly run its course in Ireland and I don’t see any of these major parties ever having a majority ever again. In the coming decade there’ll have to be an alternative political system.

There hasn't been one in years.

Cork Boy 53

firemansam4 wrote: »

So it's looking like FF will win with 38 seats from what I can see.

So a FF/FG/Greens coalition Government is still a possibility. Very narrow majority but could be done.

Plumbthedepths

Hurrache wrote: »

I don't understand this. The theme of this election was a change, why are people complaining then that FF or FG won't immediately jump back into their seats? Maybe the reality of how governments work the last couple of decades kicking in?

Its incumbent on all parties to try and form a government. Did any party campaign to go into opposition? Their voters voted based on the belief their party would seek government.

Brendan Bendar

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Dude ML is willing to form a government, she has contacted all parties. It's looking like FG and FF are taking their ball and going home. The optics for FG/FF ain't good no matter what you claim.
What of the mandate of FF/FG, combined 43% of the voters voted for them yet they are ignoring them.
The poster was right ML has them over a barrel, it's a win win for SF.

Incorrect, up to SF to (after claiming the win) to get on with it.

Voters wanted change, they got it, get on with it.

The left can’t sit on the sidelines spending taxpayers money forever, buddy.

Way past the time these folk earned their moolah.

Get on with it

Sir Oxman

Hurrache wrote: »

There hasn't been one in years.

43 years.
And not many before that - single party minorities with conf/supplies

Plumbthedepths

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Incorrect, up to SF to (after claiming the win) to get on with it.

Voters wanted change, they got it, get on with it.

The left can’t sit on the sidelines spending taxpayers money forever, buddy.

Way past the time these folk earned their moolah.

Get on with it

B get some medication for dizziness along with ulcer meds. That's some serious spin going on there.
What party has campaigned to go into opposition?

Loafing Oaf

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

So a FF/FG/Greens coalition Government is still a possibility. Very narrow majority but could be done.

There will be plent of Healy Rayss, Lowrys etc. to buttress it. Possibly even enough to get FF/FG to a majority without the Greens. Numbers not a problem if Martin wants to go down that road.

Sir Oxman

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Incorrect, up to SF to (after claiming the win) to get on with it.

Voters wanted change, they got it, get on with it.

The left can’t sit on the sidelines spending taxpayers money forever, buddy.

Way past the time these folk earned their moolah.

Get on with it

Try a maths class there, champ.

FreeThePants

threeball wrote: »

Big If

True for two items - If they get I is a big if, and if they manage to not make a bags of it is quite a big if too.

No real ifs in the age demographics though, Andi can see it being shed for fg or ff to make a big pull towards them in the interim. My guess is the smaller parties will benefit in the coming years from these new voters more than fg or ff. I expect them to still be the largest parties, but without a huge change of brand and approach, I can also see us being far from guaranteed one of them to win each and every election like they have until now.

Still, only time will tell!

pjohnson

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Incorrect, up to SF to (after claiming the win) to get on with it.

Voters wanted change, they got it, get on with it.

The left can’t sit on the sidelines spending taxpayers money forever, buddy.

Way past the time these folk earned their moolah.

Get on with it

Ah I think the problem here is you think 81 = 35.

daheff

Can somebody explain to me why Michelle ONeill is around Mary Lou all the time?? She's a politician from another jurisdiction and not running for any seat in Republic. Can't see any other foreign politicians so visible at this election.

Foxtrol

Grab All Association wrote: »

Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil can’t afford another general election, Sinn Féin know exactly where they’ll win seats now and the people who wanted to vote Sinn Féin but chose Fianna Fáil purely because of the local election results and to get FG out will vote Sinn Fein this time around.

Mary Lou has them over a barrel

I think you're a bit ahead of yourself there. I don't think any party wants another election right now and SF would be foolish to overplay their hand. The next election won't be the same situation with SF running more people, and even by running more it is a risk in itself - seats are put at risk if their vote doesn't hold and given the character of some elected this time how much they'll be scraping the barrel next time.

SF will be looked at as real contenders to lead a government and will have to deal with that additional pressure and scrutiny. FF and FG will tweak their offering to the public and their attacks on SF. Some who protest voted this time might have second thoughts when SF leading the government is likelihood. SF might change their manifesto knowing that they may now be held accountable for following through on what they included. Fear of SF in power might drive up opposition vote. FF and FG will run less candidates which will somewhat counteract SF running more.

Hurrache

Sir Oxman wrote: »

43 years.
And not many before that - single party minorities with conf/supplies

Yip, there's no great earthquake in how governments are formed.

easypazz

Cork Boy 53 wrote: »

So a FF/FG/Greens coalition Government is still a possibility. Very narrow majority but could be done.

Cant see green propping up a beaten ffg.

Sir Oxman

daheff wrote: »

Can somebody explain to me why Michelle ONeill is around Mary Lou all the time?? She's a politician from another jurisdiction and not running for any seat in Republic. Can't see any other foreign politicians so visible at this election.

really?
Now, reaaaaaalllllly?

Grab All Association

Hurrache wrote: »

There hasn't been one in years.

Exactly and every election since a number of independents get elected on single issues be it defence forces pay or parish pumps (Healy Rae and Lowry)

Actually someone pointed out in the Tipperary forum Alan Kelly posters with no Labour logo upon them.

The Rape of Lucretia

An added cherry on top of the Greenwave is that we now have a Roderick in parliament. Its terrific. Not have enough Rodericks about, but this certainly restores its profile and prestige.

freshpopcorn

Is anybody watching the news?
Is Eileen Dunne wearing her Sein Fein blazer?

daheff

daheff wrote: »

Can somebody explain to me why Michelle ONeill is around Mary Lou all the time?? She's a politician from another jurisdiction and not running for any seat in Republic. Can't see any other foreign politicians so visible at this election.

Try work it out? Surely you aren't that dim.

Itssoeasy

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

There will be plent of Healy Rayss, Lowrys etc. to buttress it. Possibly even enough to get FF/FG to a majority without the Greens. Numbers not a problem if Martin wants to go down that road.

Isn’t that what the next couple of weeks will be about ? The political horse trading and having talks and trying to work out where they may be common ground and where there are differences ? And of course the most important thing is the numbers.

easypazz

daheff wrote: »

Can somebody explain to me why Michelle ONeill is around Mary Lou all the time?? She's a politician from another jurisdiction and not running for any seat in Republic. Can't see any other foreign politicians so visible at this election.

They are both members of a 32 county party.

But you knew that.

firemansam4

I'm no fan of FF, but I guess they have the largest amount of seats, albeit just by 1.
so despite the 1st pref vote being much stronger for SF I just can't see FF settling for anything other than MM being taoiseach.

The Rape of Lucretia

daheff wrote: »

Can somebody explain to me why Michelle ONeill is around Mary Lou all the time?? She's a politician from another jurisdiction and not running for any seat in Republic. Can't see any other foreign politicians so visible at this election.

SF still has a hankering for representatives from the United Kingdom casting an eye over politics in Ireland.

Brendan Bendar

Foxtrol wrote: »

I think you're a bit ahead of yourself there. I don't think any party wants another election right now and SF would be foolish to overplay their hand. The next election won't be the same situation with SF running more people, and even by running more it is a risk in itself - seats are put at risk if their vote doesn't hold and given the character of some elected this time how much they'll be scraping the barrel next time.

SF will be looked at as real contenders to lead a government and will have to deal with that additional pressure and scrutiny. FF and FG will tweak their offering to the public and their attacks on SF. Some who protest voted this time might have second thoughts when SF leading the government is likelihood. SF might change their manifesto knowing that they may now be held accountable for following through on what they included. Fear of SF in power might drive up opposition vote. FF and FG will run less candidates which will somewhat counteract SF running more.

Lad is well ahead of himself.

Up to now the left have been claiming to have all the answers, and the electorate voted left.

And the electorate voted for change.

So please, stop whinging and get on with it.

Sir Oxman

firemansam4 wrote: »

I'm no fan of FF, but I guess they have the largest amount of seats, albeit just by 1, so despite the 1st pref vote being much stronger for SF I just can't see FF settling for anything other than MM being taoiseach.

If FF+SF+oth there won't be a junior party so MM can bog off.
Rotating Taoiseachship incoming.