GE Exit Poll 10 pm

seamus

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

And you think SF will accept that?

You're still thinking FF can dictate terms seamus. I'm not sure you're paying attention.

There's the word "negotiate" in there Lloyd.

SF can't form a government on their own. Either can FF. Both are going to have to come to a compromise somewhere.

Maybe SF will propose a C & S arrangement with FF in government. But I don't think that's what Mary-Lou wants either. It leaves SF out in the cold supporting FF policy with no direct say.

FG C & S with Sinn Féin? Yeah maybe. I'm not sure FG have the appetite for it though. It likewise leaves them taking the flak for SF's government, without any policy say.

This is why a negotiated fixed-term coalition between FF & SF seems most likely to me. It forms a stable-ish government with a known end date and a fixed set of things to achieve. That's easiest to sell to both SF & FF supporters.

Idbatterim

Wanderer78 wrote: »

im not convinced of this at all, ffg are behemoths, they wont simply lie down over this, they ll be back with avenges

Maybe not with the current leaders though.

Boggles

One of the first things Coveney said when interviewed the other day with out being is asked.

Is confidence and supply as a notion is gone from Irish politics.

He is dead right, the electorate saw only SF as the opposition, they saw FF as part of government.

It's gone, it's either going to be coalition or back to the polls.

We are voting again I reckon.

Jinglejangle69

Can't believe Aidhin ó Ríordáin got back in.

All he done in the last few years was object to houses been built in his area.

Which obviously got him votes.

NIMBYism at its finest

is_that_so

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

And you think SF will accept that?

You're still thinking FF can dictate terms seamus. I'm not sure you're paying attention.

I don't think you are either. No party can saunter into a discussion with their whole manifesto covered in red lines. That's a short discussion.

limnam

More ranting and raving this morning on newstalk RE: up the ra


They just don't seem to get it.

is_that_so

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Can't believe Aidhin ó Ríordáin got back in.

All he done in the last few years was object to houses been built.in his area.

Which obviously got him votes.

NIMBYism at its finest

He was unlucky, in voting terms, to lose out in 2016. They clearly like him just as others like Lowry, the Kerry twins and any other politician might loathe on sight.

LuckyLloyd

seamus wrote: »

There's the word "negotiate" in there Lloyd.

SF can't form a government on their own. Either can FF. Both are going to have to come to a compromise somewhere.

Maybe SF will propose a C & S arrangement with FF in government. But I don't think that's what Mary-Lou wants either. It leaves SF out in the cold supporting FF policy with no direct say.

FG C & S with Sinn Féin? Yeah maybe. I'm not sure FG have the appetite for it though. It likewise leaves them taking the flak for SF's government, without any policy say.

This is why a negotiated fixed-term coalition between FF & SF seems most likely to me. It forms a stable-ish government with a known end date and a fixed set of things to achieve. That's easiest to sell to both SF & FF supporters.

I think SF will take negotiations far enough to pull the plug and make it FF’s fault for another election. Or force FF to then turn to FG. Negotiations are all about leverage and SF have that in spades right now.

There is a significant psychological hurdle for FF to cross here. All weekend the assumption was FF would end up with ~10 seats more than SF and the conversations (naively in my view) were in the context of SF being treated as a junior partner. That isn’t the reality and I’m not sure FF will be able to accept that and “negotiate” an equal partnership.

There are howls of outrage ahead, one way or another.

seamus

limnam wrote: »

More ranting and raving this morning on newstalk RE: up the ra
They just don't seem to get it.

Oh, they get it alright. People voted for Sinn Féin on the basis that, "We know their past, and we can get over it".
What's being shown now is that it's not "the past". It's still very much "the present" for most of the Sinn Féin TDs.

You seem to be under the impression that young Irish voters are in love with the misty-eyed beatification of Bobby Sands and friends. They're not. Sinn Féin's support boost is not because of their Republicanism, it's in spite of it.

Get Real

Grab All Association wrote: »

What this country really needs its own indigenous industries.

Back in the day this country had its own indigenous industries. We were a rural economy exporting basic beef&dairy goods, knitted jumpers and sugar and 75% was to Britain.

That's not to knock our (world reknowned) agricultural industry today. But multinationals have done a huge thing for this country. Beginning in the 70s, and intensifying with the likes of Apple and Intel. To the Google's of today. There is also still plenty of opportunity for home grown talent, manufacturing and tech.

I don't see what a protectionist system would achieve. Ireland is a country of diversity, openness, ease of business and innovation.

Blanket statements about indigenous industries reek of backward, Brexit-style ideals.

There is no reason why we can't have Multinationals here as they already are, supporting jobs and a spin off economy. It doesn't impede indigenous companies from setting up their own manufacturing, or implementing innovative new ideas. In fact, it encourages it, as they complement each other.

is_that_so

limnam wrote: »

More ranting and raving this morning on newstalk RE: up the ra


They just don't seem to get it.

It's optics and a whole lot of people not trusting nor liking them. If SF have to constantly field questions about their TD behaviour they will have less time to communicate their message. They are going to behave like this anyway but keeping it private leaves less opportunity. I don't think they'll listen so expect many more opportunities to express incredulity at it.

Ush1

seamus wrote: »

Oh, they get it alright. People voted for Sinn Féin on the basis that, "We know their past, and we can get over it".
What's being shown now is that it's not "the past". It's still very much "the present" for most of the Sinn Féin TDs.

You seem to be under the impression that young Irish voters are in love with the misty-eyed beatification of Bobby Sands and friends. They're not. Sinn Féin's support boost is not because of their Republicanism, it's in spite of it.

They voted for "change". There has been such little talk of policy it's a farce.

listermint

seamus wrote: »

Oh, they get it alright. People voted for Sinn Féin on the basis that, "We know their past, and we can get over it".
What's being shown now is that it's not "the past". It's still very much "the present" for most of the Sinn Féin TDs.

You seem to be under the impression that young Irish voters are in love with the misty-eyed beatification of Bobby Sands and friends. They're not. Sinn Féin's support boost is not because of their Republicanism, it's in spite of it.

Voter's don't care about this crap.

They care about housing and health. The longer radio stations dwell on silly nonsense mind games the more disillusioned people get with politics.


It's drivel

Boggles

is_that_so wrote: »

It's optics and a whole lot of people not trusting nor liking them. If SF have to constantly field questions about their TD behaviour they will have less time to communicate their message. They are going to behave like this anyway but keeping it private leaves less opportunity. I don't think they'll listen so expect many more opportunities to express incredulity at it.

It back fired big time on the run up the election and it majorly back fired in the final few days the election.

Every time SF was painted as a bogey fringe party their support grew.

FF and FG are too stupid and arrogant at this point to pull back from it.

is_that_so

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

I think SF will take negotiations far enough to pull the plug and make it FF’s fault for another election. Or force FF to then turn to FG. Negotiations are all about leverage and SF have that in spades right now.

There is a significant psychological hurdle for FF to cross here. All weekend the assumption was FF would end up with ~10 seats more than SF and the conversations (naively in my view) were in the context of SF being treated as a junior partner. That isn’t the reality and I’m not sure FF will be able to accept that and “negotiate” an equal partnership.

There are howls of outrage ahead, one way or another.

From the various bits I've read on soundings in the other two parties that is a pretty firm No. It's also a fairly disingenuous claim when you look at how many in the Dail have not been open to government down the years. It also leaves them wide open to criticism of negative campaigning.

Doctor Jimbob

limnam wrote: »

More ranting and raving this morning on newstalk RE: up the ra


They just don't seem to get it.

To be fair, if a member of any other party had said something equally stupid, the media would be having a field day with that as well.

listermint

Get Real wrote: »

Back in the day this country had its own indigenous industries. We were a rural economy exporting basic beef&dairy goods, knitted jumpers and sugar and 75% was to Britain.

That's not to knock our (world reknowned) agricultural industry today. But multinationals have done a huge thing for this country. Beginning in the 70s, and intensifying with the likes of Apple and Intel. To the Google's of today. There is also still plenty of opportunity for home grown talent, manufacturing and tech.

I don't see what a protectionist system would achieve. Ireland is a country of diversity, openness, ease of business and innovation.

Blanket statements about indigenous industries reek of backward, Brexit-style ideals.

There is no reason why we can't have Multinationals here as they already are, supporting jobs and a spin off economy. It doesn't impede indigenous companies from setting up their own manufacturing, or implementing innovative new ideas. In fact, it encourages it, as they complement each other.

Not one poster talked about protectionism.

Not one.

limnam

seamus wrote: »

Oh, they get it alright. People voted for Sinn Féin on the basis that, "We know their past, and we can get over it".
What's being shown now is that it's not "the past". It's still very much "the present" for most of the Sinn Féin TDs.

You seem to be under the impression that young Irish voters are in love with the misty-eyed beatification of Bobby Sands and friends. They're not. Sinn Féin's support boost is not because of their Republicanism, it's in spite of it.

Considering they were the most popular vote across 18-65 I'm not making any assumptions on their voter base.


They've fired mud for weeks and what they don't seem to get regardless of the type of mud all it seems to do is go against them.


Apparently their manifesto is pie in the sky stuff with a very inexperienced bunch of runners.


Why not attack this instead and people might take it a bit more seriously.


People bore of 25 minutes talking about what some person said in a pub.


It doesn't help the person on the trolly or in the street.

seamus

Get Real wrote: »

Blanket statements about indigenous industries reek of backward, Brexit-style ideals.

There is no reason why we can't have Multinationals here as they already are, supporting jobs and a spin off economy. It doesn't impede indigenous companies from setting up their own manufacturing, or implementing innovative new ideas. In fact, it encourages it, as they complement each other.

"Indigenous" industries also doesn't have to be heavy manufacturing.

Whatever about companies relocating here for tax breaks, we do have a massive amount of skilled technology workers, and reputation as one of the top places on earth to locate your technology R&D.

That's where we can build our indigenous businesses, but it needs support. Like manufacturing industry needs roads and ports to work, technology needs connectivity. That's why the national broadband plan is a critical infrastructure project.

is_that_so

Boggles wrote: »

It back fired big time on the run up the election and it majorly back fired in the final few days the election.

Every time SF was painted as a bogey fringe party their support grew.

FF and FG are too stupid and arrogant at this point to pull back from it.

I'm amused that you think the reach of both parties stretches as far as every from of news media. It's a story with lots of legs. Voters may have blocked off a lot of what SF are but the media will not. They'll just have to get used to it just as other parties have had to put up with very negative coverage and "campaigns" against them.

limnam

listermint wrote: »

Voter's don't care about this crap.

They care about housing and health. The longer radio stations dwell on silly nonsense mind games the more disillusioned people get with politics.


It's drivel

FG/FF supports should be furious at thier TD's as the party gets wiped out and the best they can do is fling more rubbish about something said in a pub.

listermint

is_that_so wrote: »

I'm amused that you think the reach of both parties stretches as far as every from of news media. It's a story with lots of legs. Voters may have blocked off a lot of what SF are but the media will not. They'll just have to get used to it just as other parties have had to put up with very negative coverage and "campaigns" against them.

Not being funny.

But are you suggesting SF have never had to put up with negative coverage and campaigns against them..

I'm asking because I'm squinting my eyes at your post

listermint

limnam wrote: »

FG/FF supports should be furious at thier TD's as the party gets wiped out and the best they can do is fling more rubbish about something said in a pub.

There's a whole raft of policies they could be asking about

is_that_so

limnam wrote: »

FG/FF supports should be furious at thier TD's as the party gets wiped out and the best they can do is fling more rubbish about something said in a pub.

By someone who could end up a minister? That's a press field day about standards in public office!

Brendan Bendar

For me anyway the biggest problem is the make up of the Dáil.

Three main parties of around 110 seats leaving around 50 seat with no interest or little interest in getting involved in Govt.

Sure there are the Greens and Soc Dems but what’s left then is a mishmash of those who’s only interest is getting themselves elected.

These leftovers get way too much publicity for their per centage support.

We need to concentrate on those who want a better country and want to get involved not chancers and nutjobs who have no hope or desire to fix anything or have any power to do so.

Only interested in trousering the taxpayers wedge.

listermint

is_that_so wrote: »

By someone who could end up a minister? That's a press field day about standards in public office!

Theyre not in office yet. None of them.

celt262

limnam wrote: »

FG/FF supports should be furious at thier TD's as the party gets wiped out and the best they can do is fling more rubbish about something said in a pub.

Up the RA

FrancieBrady

limnam wrote: »

FG/FF supports should be furious at thier TD's as the party gets wiped out and the best they can do is fling more rubbish about something said in a pub.

It will be a storm in a taecup distraction from the dreadful (normally resignation territory) performance of both Varadkar and Martin. Particularly Martin, whose TD's struggled across the line in so many constituencies, some them without reaching a quota.

is_that_so

listermint wrote: »

Not being funny.

But are you suggesting SF have never had to put up with negative coverage and campaigns against them..

I'm asking because I'm squinting my eyes at your post

I think they play the victim as much as others that they are always being picked on. It is largely their own fault as they are they are masters of verbal gymnastics and they have a stance on history that is not nuanced. That's fine for what it is but a considerable number of people do not share it.

Ush1

Is "Up the RA" the new "OK Boomer"?