GE Exit Poll 10 pm

LeinsterDub

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

.

Sure there are the Greens and Soc Dems but what’s left then is a mishmash of those who’s only interest is getting themselves elected.

SocDems, Greens, and Labour have all indicated they are willing to talk to anyone. PBP have said they'll do business with anyone barring FF / FG so that reduces your 50 by 27. Most of the independent would enter government with anyone. So I've no idea how you can claim 50.

seamus

limnam wrote: »

People bore of 25 minutes talking about what some person said in a pub.
It doesn't help the person on the trolly or in the street.

These two statements are more related than you think. When people are looking for politicians to sort out the housing and homeless crisis, then a TD celebrating with "Up the RA" and talking about Northern Ireland, is going to concern them. Are Sinn Féin going to spend all their time banging on about a united ireland when there are more important things to deal with?

listermint wrote: »

But are you suggesting SF have never had to put up with negative coverage and campaigns against them..

I've mentioned it on another thread, but by and large Sinn Féin have only had to deal with party criticism up to now. Gerry and Mary Lou take their own flak, but for the most part the negativity has been about Sinn Féin.

Of course the party in government, gets the personal attacks. Narratives about who they did a deal with and when, how many properties they own, emails and texts they sent that are dodgy as f*ck. Drunken episodes at a function.

That's what's in Sinn Féin's future. And if Cullinane is anything to go by, it's going to be ugly.

listermint

is_that_so wrote: »

I think they play the victim as much as others that they are always being picked on. It is largely their own fault as they are they are masters of verbal gymnastics and they have a stance on history that is not nuanced. That's fine for what it is but a considerable number of people do not share it.

So they do get bad press and negative campaigns against them.

Because previously you implied they didn't.

Now your saying they bring it on themselves.

Just asking because you change direction so often

listermint

seamus wrote: »

These two statements are more related than you think. When people are looking for politicians to sort out the housing and homeless crisis, then a TD celebrating with "Up the RA" and talking about Northern Ireland, is going to concern them. Are Sinn Féin going to spend all their time banging on about a united ireland when there are more important things to deal with?

I've mentioned it on another thread, but by and large Sinn Féin have only had to deal with party criticism up to now. Gerry and Mary Lou take their own flak, but for the most part the negativity has been about Sinn Féin.

Of course the party in government, gets the personal attacks. Narratives about who they did a deal with and when, how many properties they own, emails and texts they sent that are dodgy as f*ck. Drunken episodes at a function.

That's what's in Sinn Féin's future. And if Cullinane is anything to go by, it's going to be ugly.

No argument from me.

We can now concentrate on outcomes and not the fluff. Which is what I think we should do like any party.

Fr_Dougal

FF & SF:
FF voters will be p1ssed off at MM breaking an election promise by going into government with SF, they will be decimated at the next election.
SF voters wouldn’t be overly happy with SF going into government with FF after they promised ‘change’.
SF could bring down the government at any stage, increase their candidates and see if they can get a majority.
I think that coalition would last 6 months, and I’m not sure MM would chance it.

FF & FG:
Both parties would really need to get their fingers out and accelerate work on all the issues highlighted by the voters in the exit polls.
They would need a flawless tenure in government, and it would have to last for the majority of the term. Any infighting, or if the government was brought down prematurely would play into the hands of SF. They would lose further ground to SF with another election.
Even if they did manage to run a successful government, I’d imagine there would still be bickering and each party would inevitably be trying to portray themselves as the stronger party to impress the electorate. The last thing they’d want is to be seen as same-same come another election.

SF.
If I was Mary Lou I’d go into government with FF, get all the party’s ducks in a row, then collapse the government towards the end of the summer. She would probably be looking at a majority government then. As the largest party in government SF would need to get its act together and deliver results quickly. If they mess up in government they’ll be back to <10%, and would probably stay there for quite some time.

Interesting times ahead.

McMurphy

limnam wrote: »

More ranting and raving this morning on newstalk RE: up the ra


They just don't seem to get it.

Gregory Campbell wheeled out on NT.

Keep it up lads, it seems you'll never learn.

Suckit

Helen McEntee on the radio earlier, if that's FG's stance, I wouldn't be happy as one of the 22% that voted for them.
She could only repeat herself over and over.
"The onus is on Mary Lou to form a government"

Somebody should break it to them, FG need to be attempting something too. It is becoming all too apparent that FG are not part of any solution. They seem to think that they are being clever by repeatedly not being willing to work with any of the other parties, but the public can only see adults acting like babies. Leo needs to go, it is the 2nd worst performance by a FG party ever, and nobody can say that FG/FF didn't push the voters into looking elsewhere. FG as usual unwilling to take any blame.
The only way they can move forward properly is to remove any and all hinderances to their performance and progression, and somebody needs to take responsibility for that, which should be the leader of their party.

is_that_so

listermint wrote: »

So they do get bad press and negative campaigns against them.

Because previously you implied they didn't.

Now your saying they bring it on themselves.

Just asking because you change direction so often

Not sure if you are actually reading all of what I've posted so one last time. Yes they do as others do. Quite a bit of theirs is linked to their own stance, i.e. it makes them a target. They are not inclined to change that so on it will go.

Edgware

celt262 wrote: »

Up the RA

Says the lad who would **** in his pants if a baloon burst

Ush1

Suckit wrote: »

Helen McEntee on the radio earlier, if that's FG's stance, I wouldn't be happy as one of the 22% that voted for them.
She could only repeat herself over and over.
"The onus is on Mary Lou to form a government"

Somebody should break it to them, FG need to be attempting something too. It is becoming all too apparent that FG are not part of any solution. They seem to think that they are being clever by repeatedly not being willing to work with any of the other parties, but the public can only see adults acting like babies. Leo needs to go, it is the 2nd worst performance by a FG party ever, and nobody can say that FG/FF didn't push the voters into looking elsewhere. FG as usual unwilling to take any blame.
The only way they can move forward properly is to remove any and all hinderances to their performance and progression, and somebody needs to take responsibility for that, which should be the leader of their party.

Surely FG going into opposition is them accepting some blame and acknowledging the will of the electorate?

Jinglejangle69

Suckit wrote: »

Helen McEntee on the radio earlier, if that's FG's stance, I wouldn't be happy as one of the 22% that voted for them.
She could only repeat herself over and over.
"The onus is on Mary Lou to form a government"

Somebody should break it to them, FG need to be attempting something too. It is becoming all too apparent that FG are not part of any solution. They seem to think that they are being clever by repeatedly not being willing to work with any of the other parties, but the public can only see adults acting like babies. Leo needs to go, it is the 2nd worst performance by a FG party ever, and nobody can say that FG/FF didn't push the voters into looking elsewhere. FG as usual unwilling to take any blame.
The only way they can move forward properly is to remove any and all hinderances to their performance and progression, and somebody needs to take responsibility for that, which should be the leader of their party.

Look FG were booted out.

The obsession with SF supporters to keep slating them even after the beating they got reeks of deflection because they know the pressure is on to finally do something.

FG are the least of your worries.

FrancieBrady

Suckit wrote: »

Helen McEntee on the radio earlier, if that's FG's stance, I wouldn't be happy as one of the 22% that voted for them.
She could only repeat herself over and over.
"The onus is on Mary Lou to form a government"

Somebody should break it to them, FG need to be attempting something too. It is becoming all too apparent that FG are not part of any solution. They seem to think that they are being clever by repeatedly not being willing to work with any of the other parties, but the public can only see adults acting like babies. Leo needs to go, it is the 2nd worst performance by a FG party ever, and nobody can say that FG/FF didn't push the voters into looking elsewhere. FG as usual unwilling to take any blame.
The only way they can move forward properly is to remove any and all hinderances to their performance and progression, and somebody needs to take responsibility for that, which should be the leader of their party.

In ordinary times both the leaders of FF and FG would be considering their positions.
I can't see how they can survive for long.

Rufeo

If FFG are smart (I doubt it), they should just step back to let Sinn Fein have a crack at government. Let's see what they can (and can't) do.

meeeeh

This is actually going ok for the FF and FG. The antics and flags in count centres gave FG and FF perfect excuse to say we didn't win an election and we can't go in with them. I'm starting to think FF might be strategically happier they have 38 seats and not 45. As are FG. They can sit on their hands and watch SF form a government they said they didn't want to form. And if there is another election with SF winning more seats then they can sit on their hands again and watch SF form left government. Listening to Richard Boud Barrett today it's clear he would like to be anywhere but in government.

is_that_so

Suckit wrote: »

Helen McEntee on the radio earlier, if that's FG's stance, I wouldn't be happy as one of the 22% that voted for them.
She could only repeat herself over and over.
"The onus is on Mary Lou to form a government"

Somebody should break it to them, FG need to be attempting something too. It is becoming all too apparent that FG are not part of any solution. They seem to think that they are being clever by repeatedly not being willing to work with any of the other parties, but the public can only see adults acting like babies. Leo needs to go, it is the 2nd worst performance by a FG party ever, and nobody can say that FG/FF didn't push the voters into looking elsewhere. FG as usual unwilling to take any blame.
The only way they can move forward properly is to remove any and all hinderances to their performance and progression, and somebody needs to take responsibility for that, which should be the leader of their party.

Not really sure what you're saying here. They should be doing something but are part of the problems? Their party membership would have to vote on this and they clearly say No to SF, even if Varadkar was inclined to be open about it.

limnam

seamus wrote: »

These two statements are more related than you think. When people are looking for politicians to sort out the housing and homeless crisis, then a TD celebrating with "Up the RA" and talking about Northern Ireland, is going to concern them. Are Sinn Féin going to spend all their time banging on about a united ireland when there are more important things to deal with?

Might be an idea to firstly see if they get into government.
Then have a look at how they perform.


If they can make good progress on the top issues for not just SF's voters but for the country. Then we can evaluate that.


But I'd like to see my license fee not get swallowed up by two incompetent TD's who can't string a sentence together waste air time tackling Eoin O'Broin on what his mate said in the pub.

is_that_so

Rufeo wrote: »

If FFG are smart (I doubt it), they should just step back to let Sinn Fein have a crack at government. Let's see what they can (and can't) do.

No, this is what is happening at present. It suits them to go of and review their performance.

is_that_so

meeeeh wrote: »

This is actually going ok for the FF and FG. The antics and flags in count centres gave FG and FF perfect excuse to say we didn't win an election and we can't go in with them. I'm starting to think FF might be strategically happier they have 38 seats and not 45. As are FG. They can sit on their hands and watch SF form a government they said they didn't want to form. And if there is another election with SF winning more seats then they can sit on their hands again and watch SF form left government. Listening to Richard Boud Barrett today it's clear he would like to be anywhere but in government.

He wouldn't be able to put it to the man!

Boggles

Suckit wrote: »

Leo needs to go, it is the 2nd worst performance by a FG party ever, and nobody can say that FG/FF didn't push the voters into looking elsewhere. FG as usual unwilling to take any blame.

Simon is the obvious leader of FG for me, but there isn't much back lash against Leo from within so far anyway.

I don't actually think FG had a terrible election.

Now there has been a seismic shift and both FF and FG got absolutely battered, but to be the incumbent government for 9 years and get 35 seats in the current climate on reflection is not a complete disaster.

LeinsterDub

FrancieBrady wrote: »

In ordinary times both the leaders of FF and FG would be considering their positions.
I can't see how they can survive for long.

They are looking not too far down the road to the election in May /June.

McMurphy

Rufeo wrote: »

If FFG are smart (I doubt it), they should just step back to let Sinn Fein have a crack at government. Let's see what they can (and can't) do.

If posters on here were smart, they'd get out the abacus and realise a govt without either 2 of the big 3, or all 3 together, the numbers simply aren't there for SF to form a govt. Not a realistic govt, it's simply not feasible.

It simple math tbh. Either FG or FF will have to wind the necks in, or its back to the polls. There's no realistic alternative outcome here.

Time to stop deluding ourselves.

is_that_so

limnam wrote: »

Might be an idea to firstly see if they get into government.
Then have a look at how they perform.


If they can make good progress on the top issues for not just SF's voters but for the country. Then we can evaluate that.


But I'd like to see my license fee not get swallowed up by two incompetent TD's who can't string a sentence together waste air time tackling Eoin O'Broin on what his mate said in the pub.

I think they'll duck behind Slaintecare on Health but I'd favour another O'Reilly in Health anyway to show they can walk the walk!

LeinsterDub

Rufeo wrote: »

If FFG are smart (I doubt it), they should just step back to let Sinn Fein have a crack at government. Let's see what they can (and can't) do.

What they can't do is invent the seats required to have a crack. FF or FG would need to offer a S&C also.

FrancieBrady

meeeeh wrote: »

This is actually going ok for the FF and FG. The antics and flags in count centres gave FG and FF perfect excuse to say we didn't win an election and we can't go in with them. I'm starting to think FF might be strategically happier they have 38 seats and not 45. As are FG. They can sit on their hands and watch SF form a government they said they didn't want to form. And if there is another election with SF winning more seats then they can sit on their hands again and watch SF form left government. Listening to Richard Boud Barrett today it's clear he would like to be anywhere but in government.

If FF FG wish to project the image they would rather watch the country burn than swallow some high moral ground lumps in their throats then bring it on. I think the Irish electorate empowered themselves on Saturday and they will punish them heavily.

facehugger99

Edgware wrote: »

Says the lad who would **** in his pants if a baloon burst

Sounds like the perfect qualities for an 'I Ran Away' member.

Suckit

is_that_so wrote: »

Not really sure what you're saying here. They should be doing something but are part of the problems? Their party membership would have to vote on this and they clearly say No to SF, even if Varadkar was inclined to be open about it.

They could also look at the Greens and FF.
They aren't willing to look at any solutions at all.
Leo needs to go. If FG are going to repeat the same sentence "The public voted didn't vote FG" over and over, then then need to look at why, and make changes.
As leader during their 2nd worst performance ever, he should do the right thing and step down, especially if they're not willing to do anything else.

Wanderer78

Boggles wrote:

Now there has been a seismic shift and both FF and FG got absolutely battered, but to be the incumbent government for 9 years and get 35 seats in the current climate on reflection is not a complete disaster.

A semi disaster maybe

is_that_so

McMurphy wrote: »

If posters on here were smart, they'd get out the abacus and realise a govt without either 2 of the big 3, or all 3 together, the numbers simply aren't there for SF to form a govt. Not a realistic govt, it's simply not feasible.

It simple math tbh. Either FG or FF will have to wind the necks in, or its back to the polls. There's no realistic alternative outcome here.

Time to stop deluding ourselves.

Their members say no just as other parties consult their members on positions and if that means a new election they'll accept that.

JohnnyFlash

McMurphy wrote: »

If posters on here were smart, they'd get out the abacus and realise a govt without either 2 of the big 3, or all 3 together, the numbers simply aren't there for SF to form a govt. Not a realistic govt, it's simply not feasible.

It simple math tbh. Either FG or FF will have to wind the necks in, or its back to the polls. There's no realistic alternative outcome here.

Time to stop deluding ourselves.

FF, SF and the Greens.

That works, the people voted for change, and the country needs stability. PP have it at 2/1. I get the feeling SF supporters are getting worried about the prospect of government. Hurlers on the ditch.

It’s also maths, not math. It’s a deeply annoying Americanism that has creeped in around here recently.

LuckyLloyd

is_that_so wrote: »

From the various bits I've read on soundings in the other two parties that is a pretty firm No. It's also a fairly disingenuous claim when you look at how many in the Dail have not been open to government down the years. It also leaves them wide open to criticism of negative campaigning.

Did you mean to reply to a different post?

I’m not sure I follow the above in the context of what I wrote