GE Exit Poll 10 pm

jprender

FF / FG / GREEN makes sense
85 seats would be comfortable.

Make big improvements to housing and health over the next 5 years, showing the electorate that they got the message, and all the protest votes that went to SF this time will go back to their normal place.

We need a stable govt with a workable plan.

JohnnyFlash

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Will be FF & FG along with the greens. There really is no other solution. Yeah people might not like Michael Martin but he will be the next taoiseach and most likely Coveney as taniste.

14/1 for that to be the combination. Unlikely.

Boggles

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Will be FF & FG along with the greens. There really is no other solution. Yeah people might not like Michael Martin but he will be the next taoiseach and most likely Coveney as taniste.

FG and FF at the moment are trying to figure out what is best for them politically going forward, they couldn't really give 2 fúcks about forming a government for the "good of the country" and to be honest you couldn't begrudge them a day or 2 after the shock they just took.

FG have categorically stated they will be in opposition with no confidence and supply arrangement.

So it's basically up to FF, personally I think another election is probably less damaging for the party going forward.

Brendan Bendar

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seriously, what does that kind of disparaging commentary do for you? What do you get out of it?

Just the truth Francois.... just the truth.

JohnnyFlash

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Such a government will cause a crash within a year or two. We wouldn't have the ghost estates problem though. Everybody homeless with no money to buy a pitchfork to fend off the roaming wolf packs, could be tricky.

I’d consider a party who want to increase the dole by 25 quid, get rid of the LPT, and increase employer prsi by 50% to be far more likely to cause a crash than Prudent Pascal and the lads. Just a hunch, dude.

limnam

jprender wrote: »

FF / FG / GREEN makes sense
85 seats would be comfortable.

Make big improvements to housing and health over the next 5 years, showing the electorate that they got the message, and all the protest votes that went to SF this time will go back to their normal place.

We need a stable govt with a workable plan.

Considering they did noting on housing in 10 years. Why would they suddenly do something now in over next 5.

They're two years behind in slainte care in3 years. They could be 6-7 years behind in 5 years time.

No thanks

The Rape of Lucretia

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

Will be FF & FG along with the greens. There really is no other solution.

And its as it should be. It isnt even such a tortuous decision. Its selfevidently the most accurate representation of the desire of the electorate. Its bizarre even, that any there is any question over it.

SF have painted themselves as untouchables. At least for this election. And shot themselves in the foot (or let their true nature cat out of the bag a little to clamourously) when they might have sustained a little more illusion that they were a reaonable party. And are lefty. Ireland, even when it was a poor country, never mustered any cohesive left. Even less so today, as one of the richest, highest living standard, countries in the world. There is indeed support for them. But it at an end of the spectrum, and bring issues that are very strongly unacceptable to a great majority.

There is no case to be made for SF being part of a government being the best reflection of the Irish political wish.

Fann Linn

jos28 wrote: »

Not doing a good job of that so far. I would have thought that if new SF were to be taken seriously then MLM should have issued strict party guidelines on any 'up the Ra'/triumphalist displays. Any sign of the old SF and you're out !
The behaviour of Dessie Ellis and David Cullinane only served to show people that 'they' haven't gone away.

No different to Wiilie O Dea pointing a pistol at a journo years ago.
Harmless except to those who feel 'needy' 😄

efanton

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

It's quite simple, FF are emphatic that they will not serve with SF even if a few of their TD's are off script. Ciaran Canon of FG has been out today saying FF/FG/Greens will have to do a deal or its back to the people. The rest of the party he is a member of are staying quiet but it won't be an option for any party for long.

Thats correct.

Its either that or Michael Martin changing his mind again and forming coalition with SF and one other party.

So its simple really its a choice between FF/FG/Greens or FF/SF/Greens

Either way the man at the centre of that is Michael Martin and its totally down to him to make the call.

Loafing Oaf

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

And its as it should be. It isnt even such a tortuous decision. Its selfevidently the most accurate representation of the desire of the electorate. Its bizarre even, that any there is any question over it.

And if I had seen the final seat configuration the moment the polls closed I would have said that was the only option.

BUT

Martin's evasive interviews on Sunday opened the door to SF. And until he declares his hand FF-SF cannot be ruled out IMO.

Brendan Bendar

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I’d consider a party who want to increase the dole by 25 quid, get rid of the LPT, and increase employer prsi by 50% to be far more likely to cause a crash than Prudent Pascal and the lads. Just a hunch, dude.

With you on that one John, call out the hunch and let the fcuker skewer the dartboard.

FrancieBrady

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

And its as it should be. It isnt even such a tortuous decision. Its selfevidently the most accurate representation of the desire of the electorate. Its bizarre even, that any there is any question over it.

SF have painted themselves as untouchables. At least for this election. And shot themselves in the foot (or let their true nature cat out of the bag a little to clamourously) when they might have sustained a little more illusion that they were a reaonable party. And are lefty. Ireland, even when it was a poor country, never mustered any cohesive left. Even less so today, as one of the richest, highest living standard, countries in the world. There is indeed support for them. But it at an end of the spectrum, and bring issues that are very strongly unacceptable to a great majority.

There is no case to be made for SF being part of a government being the best reflection of the Irish political wish.

:D:D This is getting hilarious now.

Surely their 'true nature' is to embed themselves further and further into the democratic process?

What do you reckon their end game is, sucker their way to power and then rule with the armalite?

Plumbthedepths

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Did either of them say, specifically "If Micheal Martin forms a government with Sinn Fein, I will not serve in that government."? Just saying they're opposed to coalition with SF won't cut it if Martin is determined to force it through.

Possible that they have, I'm not following things that closely...

Jack and Jim ( nearly wrote Jill) have ruled out government with SF. You either take them at their word or you don't, but both know they will be back on the doorsteps in the not to distant future.

The Rape of Lucretia

Matt Barrett wrote: »

Such a government will cause a crash within a year or two. We wouldn't have the ghost estates problem though. Everybody homeless with no money to buy a pitchfork to fend off the roaming wolf packs, could be tricky.

No. It will be very tight, and last until sometime in the 5th year. It doesnt present the problems of the C%S structure. It is not a coalition of unnatural distant political phylosphies. As so many remark, there is no difference between them. A recipe for a smooth cooperation. Nor is it reliant on the support of half a dozen flaky independents, whack job country bumkins or the like.

FF,FG plus a small one, is so obviously the outcome, I think only the trauma of disappointment of SF supporters, stunned that the big break through will still leave them effectively the same - on the opposition benches - , are even considering there is still a question to be answered here.
They will wrap themselves in the security blanket of hope that next time round, they will indeed make the real breakthrough - to actual government.

jprender

limnam wrote: »

Considering they did noting on housing in 10 years. Why would they suddenly do something now in over next 5.

Come on now, nothing ?
The Country had no money at the start of that 10year period, and they have been making strides on housing over more recent years. Not enough progress for sure, and that certainly needs to be addressed.

limnam wrote: »

They're two years behind in slainte care in3 years. They could be 6-7 years behind in 5 years time.

Nah, they won't be.
Now that they have heard the electorate loud and clear, this will be a priority.


5 years is an awful long time in politics, plenty time to get their usual vote base re-established.


SF will not be let anywhere near GOVT.
They need either FF or FG, and the big boys won't play ball.

We have to remember that the electorate didn't vote for SF to be in Govt.
They voted for "change".

A change in policy and focus is what we will see.

FrancieBrady

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

And if I had seen the final seat configuration the moment the polls closed I would have said that was the only option.

BUT

Martin's evasive interviews on Sunday opened the door to SF. And until he declares his hand FF-SF cannot be ruled out IMO.

What we could be looking at is a good old fashioned night of the long knifes power struggle too.

Far too early to be calling anything.

Brendan Bendar

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

No. It will be very tight, and last until sometime in the 5th year. It doesnt present the problems of the C%S structure. It is not a coalition of unnatural distant political phylosphies. As so many remark, there is no difference between them. A recipe for a smooth cooperation. Nor is it reliant on the support of half a dozen flaky independents, whack job country bumkins or the like.

FF,FG plus a small one, is so obviously the outcome, I think only the trauma of disappointment of SF supporters, stunned that the big break through will still leave them effectively the same - on the opposition benches - , are even considering there is still a question to be answered here.
They will wrap themselves in the security blanket of hope that next time round, they will indeed make the real breakthrough - to actual government.

They will go ‘on the blanket’. ?

Surely not!!

Water John

FF + FG + Greens is the default if all the various discussions with SF fail.

ThunbergsAreGo

Zetor19 wrote: »

Should there not be a minimum standard to even apply to put ones name up for election? I mean some of these sf people should be in mountjoy.

Were you not championing SF a week ago?

And no that's the same bull**** spouted by Remainers and Clinton supporters when they didnt get a result they wanted

Plumbthedepths

Zetor19 wrote: »

Should there not be a minimum standard to even apply to put ones name up for election? I mean some of these sf people should be in mountjoy.

Have you anything to contribute other than the above type of BS.
You still didn't answer what your qualifications are btw, I posted a link to the Roscommon SF TDs qualifications after you made a stupid comment about illiteracy.

rafatoni

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Were you not championing SF a week ago?

And no that's the same bull**** spouted by Remainers and Clinton supporters when they didnt get a result they wanted

exactly, clearly a WUM, look back at his posts over previous week.

lawred2

Zetor19 wrote: »

Reality has set in. I don’t want a bunch of scumbags in power . Imagine the holy show they would make of the country trying to do trade deals etc

Trade deal with who?

That's an EU competency

Zetor19

Trade deal with who, are you for real? We have to do our own canvassing to get deals in the future and I have a feeling Europe will be telling us to go to hell pretty soon after what we have done now.

Foxtrol

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

No. It will be very tight, and last until sometime in the 5th year. It doesnt present the problems of the C%S structure. It is not a coalition of unnatural distant political phylosphies. As so many remark, there is no difference between them. A recipe for a smooth cooperation. Nor is it reliant on the support of half a dozen flaky independents, whack job country bumkins or the like.

FF,FG plus a small one, is so obviously the outcome, I think only the trauma of disappointment of SF supporters, stunned that the big break through will still leave them effectively the same - on the opposition benches - , are even considering there is still a question to be answered here.
They will wrap themselves in the security blanket of hope that next time round, they will indeed make the real breakthrough - to actual government.

Biggest thing that will keep them there for 5 years is self preservation.

5 years is a long time for houses to come online and health to improve. Even without Brexit issues, during the next Dail there will likely be another global economic downturn and at that point people won't be turning to SF's magic money tree, they'll be worrying about their jobs.

The Rape of Lucretia

Water John wrote: »

FF + FG + Greens is the default if all the various discussions with SF fail.

Its so default, there are no real discussions.
They are pointless. A smokescreen. A taking of time to accept the reality.
The crank handle of democracy was turned, and an FF+FG+GR government popped out. The people got what they wanted. Democracy worked. The people should be very satisfied. The sensible, rational people certainly are.

ThunbergsAreGo

Zetor19 wrote: »

Reality has set in. I don’t want a bunch of scumbags in power . Imagine the holy show they would make of the country trying to do trade deals etc

Their TDs (some) do look very green alright, but they don't have a majority or close to one.

Their senior TDs will be the ones in positions

Loafing Oaf

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

FF,FG plus a small one, is so obviously the outcome, I think only the trauma of disappointment of SF supporters, stunned that the big break through will still leave them effectively the same - on the opposition bench

jprender wrote: »

SF will not be let anywhere near GOVT.
They need either FF or FG, and the big boys won't play ball.

Zetor19 wrote: »

Reality has set in. I don’t want a bunch of scumbags in power .

Still not seeing how any of you can declare this with confidence until Martin declares his hand. According to Paddy Power, the four most likely options for the next government involve FF & SF. Can we be sure the bookies have got this so drastically wrong?

JohnnyFlash

Water John wrote: »

FF + FG + Greens is the default if all the various discussions with SF fail.

Which is what the SF voters around here actually want. They want FG back in power. An astonishing loss of face to be honest. Terrified of the prospect of government. Barstool republicans.

‘These are my principles. If you don’t like them I have others’ springs to mind as an apt quote.

lawred2

Zetor19 wrote: »

Trade deal with who, are you for real? We have to do our own canvassing to get deals in the future and I have a feeling Europe will be telling us to go to hell pretty soon after what we have done now.

What?

buried

If it is a case of a FF - Green coalition government, then they better start to adhere to the demands of the younger cross section of voters who feel they are being totally left to be some sort of cannon fodder for continuation of mainstream economic policy to shaft them in the arse. This is what has resulted in the huge shift to SF. The older generation who continually voted for either FF or FG just because that's what they always did, or how their parents did or any of that sort of ridiculous sports team like support for a political party just for the sake of it, that is dying out, literally dying out. The younger generation won't do that sort of blind allegiance to one or the other, they'll pledge allegiance to whoever is visibly working for their interests. FG & FF didn't do it the last 9 years. That's why they got pushed into second and third place. If FF continue this particular trajectory of treating anyone under the age of 45 as economic cannon fodder, well, in the next election they will be wiped out for a long long time as the older generation will be even more less in number in 5 years time.