GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Foxtrol

McMurphy wrote: »

Don't know if this was posted earlier but this is awkward.

https://twitter.com/ABhoysVoice/status/1227357909945810945?s=19

What is the issue there, it happens all the time?

You can feel someone's policies are completely unfeasible or idiotic and still aim to have a working relationship with them, especially when you have no choice. It is part of being an adult.

The only awkward thing is that someone felt the need to ask or worthy to print it.

easypazz

Ff / fg and green. Ff seem adamant its a no to the shinners.

Above from tonight show just now.

ceegee

seannash wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/ireland/irish-news/election-2020-is-sinn-f%C3%A9in-s-housing-policy-credible-1.4163859

Have a read, I'm not a Sinn Fein fan but at least know what they are claiming and how they claim to do it.

Fair enough, hadn't looked into it in much detail, just the 65k figure being debated rang a bell from reading the manifesto last week.

threeball

elperello wrote: »

Well you are right it is emotive.

Not many issues are literally life and death.

It doesn't take anything close to life and death to get under people's skin when it comes to health. And then you get the spin that they're attacking frontline workers when they try to change the systems.

brendanwalsh

FF FG and greens or labour or indos.

These 65k box houses won’t be fit to accommodate a pack of dogs not to mind a family of five. Who will build the houses? Demolition Dessie Ellis ? His skills would be more in line of blowing up buildings rather than the intricate skill of building them

shenanagans

easypazz wrote: »

Ff / fg and green. Ff seem adamant its a no to the shinners.

Above from tonight show just now.

The greens won't achieve anything in an unstable left govt. If they can get guarantees on meeting targets they'll go with FF/FG. IMO

elperello

threeball wrote: »

It doesn't take anything close to life and death to get under people's skin when it comes to health. And then you get the spin that they're attacking frontline workers when they try to change the systems.

When people go into hospital they often feel very vulnerable.

They put themselves in the hands of the professionals. That is a very fundamental level of trust.

Changing the deckchairs on the Titanic comes to mind when discussing changing systems in our health service.

Loafing Oaf

shenanagans wrote: »

One of tomorrows headlines references a 'Grand coalition to deny SF'.......

Lot of speculation filling the vacuum. According to this confidence & supply is back on the table
https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/fianna-f%C3%A1il-led-minority-administration-underpinned-by-fine-gael-not-ruled-out-1.4170822


Here's the bit I don't really get

If Fine Gael was to agree to a confidence and supply arrangement its 35 TDs would abstain on budgetary and confidence votes, and only 63 votes would be needed for a Dáil majority.
Fianna Fáil, the Greens, Labour and the Social Democrats could command 62 votes, meaning the support of a number of Independent TDs would also be needed.

Is there an iron law that it has to be done this way? If FG was to agree to just vote yes to government bills, wouldn't that simplify things and reduce the number of extra parties needed in the marriage? Potentially could be done with just independents...

Fann Linn

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Lot of speculation filling the vacuum. According to this confidence & supply is back on the table
https://www.irishtimes.com/election2020/fianna-f%C3%A1il-led-minority-administration-underpinned-by-fine-gael-not-ruled-out-1.4170822


Here's the bit I don't really get


Is there an iron law that it has to be done this way? If FG was to agree to just vote yes to government bills, wouldn't that simplify things and reduce the number of extra parties needed in the marriage? Potentially could be done with just independents...

Grand. Until Roisin walks and the whole three card trick comes tumbling down on all of them.

Pintman Paddy Losty

Its time for a republican coalition. FF and SF need to step up to the plate. Time to put down the toys and join the big boys.

elperello

You could depend on Lowry and Naughten to stick to a deal.

efanton

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ibec-says-sinn-f%C3%A9in-not-mad-when-it-comes-to-the-economy-1.4168977

It seems that even that bastion of everything that is everything but Sinn Fein is actually agreeing with them


https://www.irishtimes.com/business/economy/ibec-says-sinn-f%C3%A9in-not-mad-when-it-comes-to-the-economy-1.4168977

Senior members of the Irish business world envisage no difficulty developing a working partnership with Sinn Féin, should the left-leaning party be part of the next government.

Brian Hayes, chief executive of Banking and Payments Federation Ireland talking about SF proposed tax changes.

“People need to be relaxed about this,” said Mr Hayes, chief executive of Banking and Payments Federation Ireland.

“With Sinn Féin, it’s all about what a programme for government says. Manifestos are one thing, but programmes for government are a different animal.”

In its manifesto, Sinn Féin made huge spending promises and effectively said it would narrow the tax base. However, it also pledged to retain the 12.5 per cent corporation tax rate and protect funding for investment agency, IDA Ireland.

“It was a change election. If people were talking about radical change to investment policy and free movement of capital, that would be a worry. But I don’t think they are. I’m confident of a stable government.”

shenanagans

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

Its time for a republican coalition. FF and SF need to step up to the plate. Time to put down the toys and join the big boys.

Not going to happen. Several of top FF TDs have clarified this today.

Non runner!!

Pintman Paddy Losty

shenanagans wrote: »

Not going to happen. Several of top FF TDs have clarified this today.

Non runner!!

That's what the people voted for. The shinners can't continue to be snipers on the ditch. FF will compromise. They're the larger party so SF need to go in as a junior partner with them.

Loafing Oaf

Fann Linn wrote: »

Grand. Until Roisin walks and the whole three card trick comes tumbling down on all of them.

This is what I'm saying, the thing would be so unwieldy and precarious under 'normal' C&S terms. If you just had FG voting yes to government legislation but not actually being part of the government, all you'd need would be a few indos to seal the deal...

shenanagans

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

That's what the people voted for. The shinners can't continue to be snipers on the ditch. FF will compromise. They're the larger party so SF need to go in as a junior partner with them.

FF made it clear to the public prior to the election that they were not willing to partner with SF. So the people who voted FF didn't vote for FF/SF!!!

Back to the opposition benches for Mary Lou and Co.

JohnnyFlash

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

That's what the people voted for. The shinners can't continue to be snipers on the ditch. FF will compromise. They're the larger party so SF need to go in as a junior partner with them.

That’s the only game in town, Patrice. FF know they can’t go into coalition with FG and risk making SF the party of opposition. That’s ruinous for the survival of the party. SF have captured that left wing flank and it’s easy for FG to pivot back to their centre right position. FF are man in the middle. Being a populist catch-all party isn’t going to cut the mustard. So they have to make their bed somewhere. So they’ll go into coalition with SF and the Greens is for no other reason than the time needed to sell the narrative that they are now the true party of social democracy.

That’s my reading of it anyway. No easy answers for FF - your new party I believe.

shenanagans

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

That’s the only game in town, Patrice. FF know they can’t go into coalition with FG and risk making SF the party of opposition. That’s ruinous for the survival of the party. SF have captured that left wing flank and it’s easy for FG to pivot back to their centre right position. FF are man in the middle. Being a populist catch-all party isn’t going to cut the mustard. So they have to make their bed somewhere. So they’ll go into coalition with SF and the Greens is for no other reason than the time needed to sell the narrative that they are now the true party of social democracy.

That’s my reading of it anyway. No easy answers for FF - your new party I believe.

Well it's clear M.Martin, Chambers, O Callaghan and McGrath won't serve in a govt with SF....

FF better of in opposition than splitting their TDs...

JohnnyFlash

shenanagans wrote: »

Well it's clear M.Martin, Chambers, O Callaghan and McGrath won't serve in a govt with SF....

FF better of in opposition than splitting their TDs...

In what scenario would FF be in opposition? They can’t go back to the country either as SF have wind in their sails and would run second candidates in many constituencies. Damned if they do and damned if they don’t. I’d almost feel sympathy for the soldiers of destiny.

shenanagans

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

In what scenario would FF be in opposition?

Let Mary Lou put a left govt together with a dozen independents....thats what she said is her preference....a govt without FF and FG.

It will last until summer. Then another election.

Suckit

shenanagans wrote: »

Let Mary Lou put a left govt together with a dozen independents....thats what she said is her preference....a govt without FF and FG.

It will last until summer. Then another election.

That's not even 50.

shenanagans

Suckit wrote: »

That's only 50.

It's 66 with Greens. They need Iontu and independents to top up to 80.

Loafing Oaf

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

So they have to make their bed somewhere. So they’ll go into coalition with SF and the Greens is for no other reason than the time needed to sell the narrative that they are now the true party of social democracy.

Don't see how this works for FF. Any deal with SF would be very much a 'temporary little arrangement' for them, a stepping stone towards their real goal of a broad left government. Possible that FF would be required to make up the numbers in that government but they would be grudgingly tolerated and have little influence. Actual social democrats would gravitate towards, well, the Social Democrats, who would be valued members of this 'new left alliance'...

Kermit.de.frog

The Greens tonight said they had concern about the behaviour of certain Sinn Féin TDs/members unsurprisingly.

If Sinn Fein are kept out of government after that election result it will appear to be a stitch up and a tad anti democratic. We will be at the polls again in a matter of months.

This is it

shenanagans wrote: »

It's 66 with Greens. They need Iontu and independents to top up to 80.

It'd be a basket case government with that sort of mixture. Can you imagine DHR in with the Greens.

shenanagans

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Greens tonight said they had concern about the behaviour of certain Sinn Féin TDs/members unsurprisingly.

The greens to be in govt to achieve anything and they know it.

What govt wants to go over to Europe to negotiate Brexit after putting together a coalition with the 'up the RA' party??

Not FG and not FF.

This is it

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If Sinn Fein are kept out of government after that election result it will appear to be a stitch up and a tad anti democratic. We will be at the polls again in a matter of months.

If they're kept out and it's FF/FG/Greens how would we go back to the polls?

I don't think the above will happen but if it does it's a pretty stable government. Especially compared to FF/SF/x or FG/SF/x (which also won't happen)

This is it

This is it wrote: »

If they're kept out and it's FF/FG/Greens how would we go back to the polls?

Yeah that's probably a decent option. Although FG are weak and may pull on that one if they though the set up was damaging them.

This is it

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yeah that's probably a decent option. Although FG are weak and may pull on that one if they though the set up was damaging them.

FG are happy enough in opposition for now IMO. Time to rebuild.