GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Kermit.de.frog

Qrt

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Right but what we can say for certain is that SF will make both health and housing worse.

Health - they will increase the already very high marginal tax rate, driving consultants and doctors out of the country

Housing - immediately, billions of investment in housing by investment funds will disappear if SF got in

As an aside, couldn’t there be a health workers tax credit or something if there’s the fear doctors et al will flee en masse?

Fred Cryton

Edgware wrote: »

But if they get in they will have to dilute policies and probably have to deal with two parties on these figures

They would but that's not a reason to vote for them if you're hoping they'll change their policies!

namloc1980

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Not possible. 23 seats now, only 42 candidates.

Ah yeah, got mixed up. They'll get 30-33.

poppers

namloc1980 wrote: »

They'll at least double their seat numbers!

Even If the get every candidate elected the will not double there seats

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

And SF can just sit back now and let it all happen. They cannot lose here.

They certainly can.

The people especially the young, voted for SF to enact change. Not posture and sit on the opposition benches until the next election.
These people wanted SF to help them now, not in 5 years time when it's more politically convenient.

Idbatterim

Qrt wrote: »

As an aside, couldn’t there be a health workers tax credit or something if there’s the fear doctors et al will flee en masse?

The high marginal rate is a problem. It will be a bigger problem if sf were in power and hiked it. For useful workers. Would be very positive for the likes of The parasites in rte thieving a living

meeeeh

Well other left wing parties should better hope SF votes will be transferring to them or they could be in a bit of bother.

listermint

Qrt wrote: »

As an aside, couldn’t there be a health workers tax credit or something if there’s the fear doctors et al will flee en masse?

I love this type of analysis when doctors and medical professionals are fleeing the country right now and have been for years because they are over worked.

Sure people can't get a gp around the country because surgeries are maxed out.

This is happening now. Without any other parties in power

circadian

pimpmyhat wrote: »

The current sinn fein candidates who are doing their best for their communities. Can't be held accountable for someone's actions before most of them were even born.
That's not fair.
You don't have to go back much further when founders of Fianna fail and fine Gael parties were involved in brutal acts.

Yeah at least one of their candidates was extradited for being involved in paramilitary action.

um7y1h83ge06nx

listermint wrote: »

Your not going anywhere.

Despite your hand waving.


Gas to see people in lunacy mode.

Could do. I work in IT and wife in Radiography, both with decent opportunities elsewhere and the ability to obtain visas. The biggest issue would be selling the house.

Not exactly scrambling to pack the suitcases but would keep an open mind around it.

Don't underestimate the ability for people to move towards the opportunities.

The Rape of Lucretia

STB. wrote: »

One thing is for sure. When the dust has settled, Varadkar is gone as leader of FG.

Most unlikely if he is returned as Taoiseach. In 3-4 year time maybe, before the next election depending on how things go.

Spanish Eyes

Matt Barrett wrote: »

He sounds very entitled.

I am, but not in the same way as those who get a foreva home for tiny rent beside the fambly, who can put the angles to bed one bedroom each, and then go down to the scratch whilst they are at school, then come home home and feed the pony in the backyard and all that kind of entitlement.

Look I'm not having a go at anyone. Tomorrow and Monday will be very entertaining, and whatever the outcome I accept it.

Just having the craic. Some people are so obsessed.

namloc1980

markodaly wrote: »

They certainly can.

The people especially the young, voted for SF to enact change. Not posture and sit on the opposition benches until the next election.
These people wanted SF to help them now, not in 5 years time when it's more politically convenient.

They can't dictate the formation of a government as they'll have the 3rd most seats.

rdwight

listermint wrote: »

Actually... There is.

Where do you think the retail workers. Cafe workers and all the other ancillary workers come from..

Not your demographic clearly.

Most of whom are foreign nationals and wouldn't have a vote in this election

STB.

listermint wrote: »

It's not varadkar that's the problem. And if city members think it is theyre on a road to nothing.

It's the policies that are being dished out by party central.

Start owning your own ****e and not looking for a bag man.

?? You made two assumptions.

1) That I am an FG supporter
2) That I follow or give a shít about your arrogant ramblings.

Neither of which are true.

Irish_rat

The newer generation are more clued in and most in their 30/40's won't be tied to any particular party. There will be a big change in Irish politics after this election.

listermint

Amira Fancy Thriller wrote: »

Could do. I work in IT and wife in Radiography, both with decent opportunities elsewhere and the ability to obtain visas. The biggest issue would be selling the house.

Not exactly scrambling to pack the suitcases but would keep an open mind around it.

Don't underestimate the ability for people to move towards the opportunities.

I work in IT wife works in professional services. Both have degrees and we'll paying jobs own home.

You're going nowhere stop being a spoofer it's sad.

This sort of stuff doesn't win you any kudos.

Edgware

And people said Billy Kelleher was mad giving up the chance of a Ministers job.
Nice one Bill. Enjoy the Euro gravy train

tikkahunter

Irish_rat wrote: »

The newer generation are more clued in and most in their 30/40's won't be tied to any particular party. There will be a big change in Irish politics after this election.

Not that clued in going by the voting patterns , they are just falling for the emperors new clothes .

dxhound2005

Irish_rat wrote: »

The newer generation are more clued in and most in their 30/40's won't be tied to any particular party. There will be a big change in Irish politics after this election.

The big change came 10 years ago with the FF losses. They used to be able to get nearly 80 seats, now they are scratching around to make 50. FG are more or less steady this century.

um7y1h83ge06nx

listermint wrote: »

I work in IT wife works in professional services. Both have degrees and we'll paying jobs own home.

You're going nowhere stop being a spoofer it's sad.

This sort of stuff doesn't win you any kudos.

Not trying to win kudos, just giving my opinion. Is that an offence now?

thequarefellow

listermint wrote: »

It's not varadkar that's the problem. And if city members think it is theyre on a road to nothing.

It's the policies that are being dished out by party central.

Start owning your own ****e and not looking for a bag man.

Exactly. As party leaders in this country go I'd actually say he is top of the pile. He's not the problem. Hopefully this kick in the whole will alert them to why exactly people are so frustrated with them.

Larbre34

namloc1980 wrote: »

Ah yeah, got mixed up. They'll get 30-33.

They won't even, you have to consider SFs unique conversion rate, or lack thereof.

Also, and my wife reminded me of this; she was talking to the guy doing the exit poll at our station. He was tasked to profile every 3rd voter. She said she'd happily respond to it and the chap said 'thanks but no, you're not the random 3rd person'

She watched how he was getting on for 20 minutes or so. Many people refused, mostly of the typical blueshirt profile. SF type voters were only delighted to respond to the poll.

My point is, the shy FFG vote and the poor transferability of SF, not to mind the exit poll only captures No. 1s and is skewed as I described above, means the poll is pretty useless.

I'm sticking with my ceiling of 25 seats for SF.

Irish_rat

Will FF/FG need help from independents etc to form a government?

listermint

tikkahunter wrote: »

Not that clued in going by the voting patterns , they are just falling for the emperors new clothes .

I'd imagine folks spending three quarters of wages on rent and no prospect of buying a home and zero protection for long term rentals are pretty clued in.

STB.

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Most unlikely if he is returned as Taoiseach. In 3-4 year time maybe, before the next election depending on how things go.

No chance.

Fred Cryton

Larbre34 wrote: »

Many people refused, mostly of the typical blueshirt profile. SF type voters were only delighted to respond to the poll.

Correct. The final vote will have FG couple points up on this and SF couple points down. The only question is where FF end up.

meeeeh

Irish_rat wrote: »

The newer generation are more clued in and most in their 30/40's won't be tied to any particular party. There will be a big change in Irish politics after this election.

I doubt that. I think there is a gradual change with big two losing votes but this SF vote is relatively fickle. If could go to another party if people are not happy with the policies. They did take some votes from FF and FG but it seems they took an a lot away from other left leaning parties. Remember Gilmore for taoiseach? And where are Labour now?

nuac

Hamsterchops wrote: »

:cool:

But why?

I can't forget what the PIRA & Sinn Fein did, all those bombings, all those murders with total indifference from the SF leadership .....and yes, time is a healer but not if they still believe that they were right in their actions.

I wonder what the Warrington victims families make of this result? Finally rewarding the killers!
Enniskillen victims too........

I won't forget, hence I will never vote Sinn Fein.

Agree 100%