GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Kermit.de.frog

The Greens tonight said they had concern about the behaviour of certain Sinn Féin TDs/members unsurprisingly.

If Sinn Fein are kept out of government after that election result it will appear to be a stitch up and a tad anti democratic. We will be at the polls again in a matter of months.

This is it

shenanagans wrote: »

It's 66 with Greens. They need Iontu and independents to top up to 80.

It'd be a basket case government with that sort of mixture. Can you imagine DHR in with the Greens.

shenanagans

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

The Greens tonight said they had concern about the behaviour of certain Sinn Féin TDs/members unsurprisingly.

The greens to be in govt to achieve anything and they know it.

What govt wants to go over to Europe to negotiate Brexit after putting together a coalition with the 'up the RA' party??

Not FG and not FF.

This is it

[Deleted User] wrote: »

If Sinn Fein are kept out of government after that election result it will appear to be a stitch up and a tad anti democratic. We will be at the polls again in a matter of months.

If they're kept out and it's FF/FG/Greens how would we go back to the polls?

I don't think the above will happen but if it does it's a pretty stable government. Especially compared to FF/SF/x or FG/SF/x (which also won't happen)

This is it

This is it wrote: »

If they're kept out and it's FF/FG/Greens how would we go back to the polls?

Yeah that's probably a decent option. Although FG are weak and may pull on that one if they though the set up was damaging them.

This is it

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Yeah that's probably a decent option. Although FG are weak and may pull on that one if they though the set up was damaging them.

FG are happy enough in opposition for now IMO. Time to rebuild.

shenanagans

This is it wrote: »

It'd be a basket case government with that sort of mixture. Can you imagine DHR in with the Greens.

Agree. So the logical solution if FF FG and greens.

Suckit

This is it wrote: »

FG are happy enough in opposition for now IMO. Time to rebuild.

Is Leo stepping down?
Probably the correct thing to do given he delivered the 2nd worst results in the parties history.
It would likely win them some votes back too.

cameramonkey

shenanagans wrote: »

Agree. So the logical solution if FF FG and greens.

It's logical for FF and the greens but FG would need a big push to get them involved.

JohnnyFlash

I believe it was Edmund Burke who said ‘ All government, indeed every human benefit and enjoyment, every virtue, and every prudent act, is founded on compromise and barter‘.

The shîtehawking will have to stop soon and when the dust settles it will be a coalition of FF, SF, and the Greens who will have to do right by the country and its people by forming a government.

Loafing Oaf

shenanagans wrote: »

Let Mary Lou put a left govt together with a dozen independents....

Let's look at those independents to see if that is remotely feasible

Here's the ones that to my knowledge could reasonably be categorised as 'leftish': Mcnamara, Pringle, Connolly, Fitzmaurice, Harkin, Canney, Nolan

Ones I don't know anything about but we'll say they can be recruited for argument's sake: Shanahan, Berry, O'Donoghue

Gene Poolers/Parish Pump Merchants: Collins, Grealish, Fitzpatrick, Naughten, McGrath, Murphy, Lowry, Healy Rae Cap, Healy Rae Beard

So even on the most generous reading, you'd still be needing to convert two or three of the Killinaskully types to the cause of socialist revolution to make this work

shenanagans

This is it wrote: »

FG are happy enough in opposition for now IMO. Time to rebuild.

They want to be in opposition but they'll badly let down the country if they leave us with an unstable or no govt.

FG in particular know how crucial it is to have a stable govt throughout Brexit trade deal.

Leo won't have the luxury of running off into opposition.

Perhaps confidence and supply from FG and hold up FF and greens/other in govt?? That opposition sort off..

Loafing Oaf

shenanagans wrote: »

They want to be in opposition but they'll badly let down the country if they leave us with an unstable or no govt.

Plus if they 'force' FF and SF to coalesce by point blank refusing to play ball, I don't think that's a good look for them and absolves FF for going back on its pledge.

shenanagans

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Let's look at those independents to see if that is remotely feasible

Here's the ones that to my knowledge could reasonably be categorised as 'leftish': Mcnamara, Pringle, Connolly, Fitzmaurice, Harkin, Canney, Nolan

Ones I don't know anything about but we'll say they can be recruited for argument's sake: Shanahan, Berry, O'Donoghue

Gene Poolers/Parish Pump Merchants: Collins, Grealish, Fitzpatrick, Naughten, McGrath, Lowry, Healy Rae Cap, Healy Rae Beard
(Missing one there, can't identify him/her)

So even on the most generous reading, you'd still be needing to convert two or three of the Killinaskully types to the cause of socialist revolution to make this work

Well Connolly called on FF and FG to partner up and put a govt together. Can't see Harkin being apart of an unstable govt as she's not long back from 5 years in Europe as an MEP and she knows how important the whole Brexit thing is.

Loafing Oaf

shenanagans wrote: »

Can't see Harkin being apart of an unstable govt as she's not long back from 5 years in Europe as an MEP and she knows how important the whole Brexit thing is.

You're underming your own 'argument' now

shenanagans

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

You're underming your own 'argument' now

Read all my comments. I basically said FF won't go in with SF as they lose several top TDs....who won't work in a cabinet involving SF.

Another person argued that to exclude SF from govt would go against public opinion....

My response.....let Mary Lou off to put together her left govt so......even though I think it's crazy stuff.

shenanagans

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Plus if they 'force' FF and SF to coalesce by point blank refusing to play ball, I don't think that's a good look for them and absolves FF for going back on its pledge.

How can FG carry the country off its knees since 2011 and then happily hand over to the crazy policies of SF???

They won't get 15% next time if they don't step up to the plate now...

efanton

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

I believe it was Edmund Burke who said ‘ All government, indeed every human benefit and enjoyment, every virtue, and every prudent act, is founded on compromise and barter‘.

The shîtehawking will have to stop soon and when the dust settles it will be a coalition of FF, SF, and the Greens who will have to do right by the country and its people by forming a government.

so FG are shîtehawking in your own opinion?

In the present circumstances FF/SF/Greens and FF/FG/Greens are much the same thing.

The divil will be in the program for government.
We keep hearing how FG and FF will do what is best for the country, so surely now more than ever is the time for FG to actually step forward. Unless they actually accept that for the last 9 years they have done nothing but try to deceive the electorate.

Suckit

shenanagans wrote: »

It's 66 with Greens. They need Iontu and independents to top up to 80.

You already have a dozen independents there.

There are 12 greens in. 37 SF.
That is 49.
+ Aontú (1)
+ Sol/PBP (5)
+ Soc Dem (6)
+ Inds 4 Ch (1)
+ Inds (19)
With every one of them on board (would never get all the Independents) that is 81.

Labour I believe are also in the 'will not coalesce with SF' camp, and even if they were on board, it would still mean that only a maximum of 6 Independents could rule themselves out.

efanton

Suckit wrote: »

You already have a dozen independents there.

There are 12 greens in. 37 SF.
That is 49.
+ Aontú (1)
+ Sol/PBP (5)
+ Soc Dem (6)
+ Inds 4 Ch (1)
+ Inds (19)
With every one of them on board (would never get all the Independents) that is 81.

Labour I believe are also in the 'will not coalesce with SF' camp.

Anyone that thinks that is a possibility is in dreamland.
Even if SF could get that together to form a government with the current figures, and personally I think it impossible, it would disintegrate within a year or so.

the only people advocating this are people that want to see SF fail.
Everyone else that truly has the interest of the country at heart would acknowledge this is the worst possible solution to the problems at hand.

It simply has to be a FF/FG/Green government or a FF/SF/Green government.
No other combination adds up or could possibly work

So is Mehole going to actually swallow his tongue and invite SF or is Leo going to support the party that enabled him to remain in government?

Water John

It was simply an opening gambit by MLM. She's looking for a left grouping to be larger than FF in talks.
With FF is her only path to Govn't, if she's serious.

Loafing Oaf

efanton wrote: »

is Leo going to support the party that enabled him to remain in government?

Don't think the problem really lies on that side. If Martin clearly signals he wants to do business with FG, I find it inconceivable that Leo tell him to get lost or make things difficult, given what that would inevitably lead to...

shenanagans

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Don't think the problem really lies on that side. If Martin clearly signals he wants to do business with FG, I find it inconceivable that Leo tell him to get lost or make things difficult, given what that would inevitably lead to...

Must be joking. Leo likes control. He's be tanaiste and take foreign affairs. Head off to Europe and negotiate Brexit.....line himself up for a big european job down the road.

Leave health to FF....the poison chalice.

efanton

Water John wrote: »

It was simply an opening gambit by MLM. She's looking for a left grouping to be larger than FF in talks.
With FF is her only path to Govn't, if she's serious.

I think the lady is seriously serious.

Look at it from any logical viewpoint you wish.

SF will have demonstrated that they have tried to form a government.
Meanwhile the two little girlies have thrown their toy doll out of the pram in a tantrum crying that its not their problem. This could only be the case if they didn't have the numbers to form a stable government. What ever way they would want to view it, the electorate will view it in a totally different way.

God help FF and FG if this results in the general election being repeated. Both leaders , Michael Martin and Leo will almost immediately become political history.

It's time for Martin to step forward and make a decision, FG or FF, and if he cant then goodbye Michael Martin for good.
The country will not want him and by default the FF party will get shot of him at the earliest possible opportunity.

Kermit.de.frog

Two little girlies?

Because they won't endorse policies that would destroy the country?

Do you know what will happen to housing supply if a rent freeze is introduced?

All that construction of houses/apartments underway or getting going will stop immediately. Literally it will stop - it will stop in advance of it being introduced. So the private sector won't supply a single unit.

Landlords will also be evicting tenants to sell.

What are Sinn Féin going to do then?

This is the real world, not fantasy. You can only do fantasy in opposition.

ThunbergsAreGo

shenanagans wrote: »

How can FG carry the country off its knees since 2011 and then happily hand over to the crazy policies of SF???

They won't get 15% next time if they don't step up to the plate now...

The electorate voted for change. In two successive ekections FG vote has descreased, it's clear most of the public want them in opposition.

Both FF and FG have seen what sucking it up "for the good of the country" to avoid an election had gotten them

listermint

Alot of talk in here about FF FG and the greens. Evidently people don't understand this isn't the green party of even 5 years ago.

Their candidates are ramped up on global change. If anyone thinks they'll just walk into coalition without demanding major scalps then they haven't a notion about what's going on

ThunbergsAreGo

listermint wrote: »

Alot of talk in here about FF FG and the greens. Evidently people don't understand this isn't the green party of even 5 years ago.

Their candidates are ramped up on global change. If anyone thinks they'll just walk into coalition without demanding major scalps then they haven't a notion about what's going on

Equally they will hardly go into government with a party that doesn't believe in the carbon tax

listermint

ThunbergsAreGo wrote: »

Equally they will hardly go into government with a party that doesn't believe in the carbon tax

No argument here.