GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Mantis Toboggan · 12-02-2020 1:07pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Here's a mad idea. FF-Greens (any maybe SD) go into coalition

FF, the greens and social Democrats don't have the numbers.

Leroy42 · 12-02-2020 1:07pm

Winning the most votes gives SF the right to 1st try. But that doesn't stop FF/FG/Greens from trying to form a government.

Am I right in thinking that each TD can out up their choice for Taoiseach, and the Dail then voters. Normally this involves the largest party all agreeing on their party leader and getting other TDs to agree.

So even if SF do manage to get all the left parties to join them, there is nothing, technically, to stop the FF/FG&G so simply win the vote for MM?

rob316 · 12-02-2020 1:13pm

I read SF manifesto and FF, its not really a whole pile different. They are both talking about huge public spending and tax cuts. SF are over the top with it but if they both get a room I think they can work it out.

JohnnyFlash · 12-02-2020 1:33pm

rob316 wrote: »

I read SF manifesto and FF, its not really a whole pile different. They are both talking about huge public spending and tax cuts. SF are over the top with it but if they both get a room I think they can work it out.

Sounds idyllic. Sign me up for both.

LeinsterDub · 12-02-2020 1:34pm

Mantis Toboggan wrote: »

FF, the greens and social Democrats don't have the numbers.

They would with a SF S&C

McMurphy · 12-02-2020 1:39pm

Heard Leo's extended interview on Newstalk there a while ago, including a dig at SF (fake history)

Two words - deflated + sour.

JohnnyFlash · 12-02-2020 1:54pm

McMurphy wrote: »

Heard Leo's extended interview on Newstalk there a while ago, including a dig at SF (fake history)

Two words - deflated + sour.

How did you expect him to sound, Murph?

LeinsterDub · 12-02-2020 1:54pm

rob316 wrote: »

I read SF manifesto and FF, its not really a whole pile different. They are both talking about huge public spending and tax cuts. SF are over the top with it but if they both get a room I think they can work it out.

SF will also be raising taxes. Did FF propose any tax increases at all?
https://www.independent.ie/business/irish/business-spooked-by-sinn-feins-high-tax-brain-drain-proposals-38936878.html

McMurphy · 12-02-2020 1:56pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

How did you expect him to sound, Murph?

Optimistic and pragmatic. Sugar is better than vinegar, and theirs always hope.

JohnnyFlash · 12-02-2020 1:59pm

McMurphy wrote: »

Optimistic and pragmatic. Sugar is better than vinegar, and theirs always hope.

There is, Murph. There certainly is.

is_that_so · 12-02-2020 2:01pm

There is a rumour, third-hand at best I'll admit, that FF, FG and the Greens have been talking or are planning to talk about government formation!

LeinsterDub · 12-02-2020 2:11pm

is_that_so wrote: »

There is a rumour, third-hand at best I'll admit, that FF, FG and the Greens have been talking or are planning to talk about government formation!

Not a hope. FF and FG would rather go in with SF

Mantis Toboggan · 12-02-2020 2:12pm

McMurphy wrote: »

Optimistic and pragmatic. Sugar is better than vinegar, and theirs always hope.

I suppose Leo was drafted in after Kenny as the great white hope but he somehow managed the make the party even worse.

Will always be remembered as the Taoiseach who took a spanking from Mary Lou and brought SF into mainstream politics.

I can understand how he can be so dejected but at the same time he needs to snap out of it. Yeah he won't be Taoiseach anymore but I'd imagine MM would give him a decent post out of sympathy. Transport, Tourism and Sport should suit him and usually a good op for a few pics.

LeinsterDub · 12-02-2020 2:13pm

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1227573395279241218?s=19

Mad.

Mantis Toboggan · 12-02-2020 2:14pm

is_that_so wrote: »

There is a rumour, third-hand at best I'll admit, that FF, FG and the Greens have been talking or are planning to talk about government formation!

Yeah seems to be the only viable option.

The Rape of Lucretia · 12-02-2020 2:15pm

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

How do you know FF would be willing to do such a deal? Takes (at least) two to tango...

It's easier to get two to tango than to get a dozen to tango together. I am not a tango, expert, but that's my understanding of it.

rob316 · 12-02-2020 2:16pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1227573395279241218?s=19

Mad.

I thought they were the same party?

Ush1 · 12-02-2020 2:17pm

McMurphy wrote: »

Don't know if this was posted earlier but this is awkward.

https://twitter.com/ABhoysVoice/status/1227357909945810945?s=19

Did you read the article or hear Hayes' comments?

They don't believe the policies will have major impacts because they aren't going to happen essentially.

The Rape of Lucretia · 12-02-2020 2:18pm

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

No. FG campaigned to be in government after the election. The people rejected this.

https://youtu.be/YFh2vpGeoIk

They didn't reject it buddy.

Confusing facts with interpretation as you would like to see it there.

McMurphy · 12-02-2020 2:19pm

is_that_so wrote: »

There is a rumour, third-hand at best I'll admit, that FF, FG and the Greens have been talking or are planning to talk about government formation!

If this comes to pass, it might well result in the eventual merging of the two big party's, or alternatively they tear each other asunder with SF waiting in the wings as the main opposition party.

I've 25€ riding on an FF minority govt @16-1 at this min still as much as a possibility as any other one I suppose.

sondagefaux · 12-02-2020 2:19pm

gmisk wrote: »

Ah now... I know they bankrupted the country before but FF aren't that bad!

Let those Shinners in and Ireland will end up needing a bailout, unemployment will rocket, the national debt will increase, people will emigrate in droves, and it'll take a decade or more after they're voted out for there to be an uneven recovery...

The Rape of Lucretia · 12-02-2020 2:19pm

DellyBelly wrote: »

One plus of the SF doing well is the amount of Tricolours that are flying from a lot of houses over the last week. I used to live in the States and people over there always fly the stars and stripes from their homes and wondered why we didn't do the same thing here. Looks like it may start to happen which is a good thing...

Nationalism - the last refuge of a scoundrel

Snow Garden · 12-02-2020 2:22pm

is_that_so wrote: »

There is a rumour, third-hand at best I'll admit, that FF, FG and the Greens have been talking or are planning to talk about government formation!

12/1 Boylesports.

The Rape of Lucretia · 12-02-2020 2:23pm

facehugger99 wrote: »

SF, as MLM said, 'won' the election, up to her now to do a deal with FF and the Greens.

Just because she said it, doesn't make it true.

Anyone seriously taking about the election having been won or lost is either short of a few IQ points, or it's deliberately trying to deceive those who are.

LeinsterDub · 12-02-2020 2:23pm

rob316 wrote: »

I thought they were the same party?

You're thinking of the PFJ

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WboggjN_G-4

is_that_so · 12-02-2020 2:27pm

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Not a hope. FF and FG would rather go in with SF

I've no idea, just feeding the rumour mill. That second sentence is definitely false.

McMurphy · 12-02-2020 2:29pm

sondagefaux wrote: »

Let those Shinners in and Ireland will end up needing a bailout, unemployment will rocket, the national debt will increase, people will emigrate in droves, and it'll take a decade or more after they're voted out for there to be an uneven recovery...

All hypothetically of course.

And yet FG based their campaign on slinging mud at SF instead of FF who actually have form in all of the above.

Mantis Toboggan · 12-02-2020 2:29pm

is_that_so wrote: »

There is a rumour, third-hand at best I'll admit, that FF, FG and the Greens have been talking or are planning to talk about government formation!

I know the Greens are power hungry but they'd do well to remember what happened the last time their were in government. They'll definitely want a number of ministerial roles.

Eamonn Ryan Minister for Environment. No doubt we'll all be back in diesels cars before the year is out.

seamus · 12-02-2020 2:33pm

Leroy42 wrote: »

Winning the most votes gives SF the right to 1st try. But that doesn't stop FF/FG/Greens from trying to form a government.

Am I right in thinking that each TD can out up their choice for Taoiseach, and the Dail then voters. Normally this involves the largest party all agreeing on their party leader and getting other TDs to agree.

So even if SF do manage to get all the left parties to join them, there is nothing, technically, to stop the FF/FG&G so simply win the vote for MM?

So, a lot of this stuff is done by convention rather than rules.

I know Leo said that SF had a duty to form a government because they had the most first preferences, but he's wrong. The party with the most seats has the duty to try and form a government. Those with the largest Dáil presence has the public mandate to lead the government.

That doesn't stop other parties from attempting to form government.

When the Dáil first sits, it is the largest party that is invited first to nominate their pick of Taoiseach.
Other parties can then nominate their picks. As far as I know, there is no restriction on this, and it's not strange for there to be 3 or more nominations.

If the largest party nominate a Taoiseach and nobody else does, there's no vote. He's appointed by default. It's traditional, for democratic purposes, for the largest opposition party to nominate their candidate so that a vote can take place and the Taoiseach be democratically elected.

Like you say, there is nothing technically stopping smaller parties from forming an alternative government and nominating their Taoiseach once they have their majority. By implication it means that the larger party don't have one and will be nominating their candidate knowing he'll be defeated.

The Rape of Lucretia · 12-02-2020 2:54pm

seamus wrote: »

Those with the largest D presence has the public mandate to lead the government.

It doesn't. That's a point of view, not a bald fact, no matter how strong the view.
The are no rules. Only those of elected members to represent their constituents, and members of parties to represent the party.
All TDs are equally obliged, having been elected by them for that purpose, to proved government for the people of Ireland.

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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