GE Exit Poll 10 pm

efanton

dxhound2005 wrote: »

SF asked for voters to transfer Left to get a Left government led by them. FF and FG made it clear to the voters that neither of them would go into government with SF. Everyone is standing by their positions. In 2016 SF with 23 seats, just let the rest get on with it. It took a couple of months back then, so it is far too early for SF to start looking for other parties to renege on their election promises.

so why the comment

Are they not going to make a decent effort to make that happen?

You do realise you are contradicting yourself.

Also explain to me this.
FF and FG are constantly saying SF cant be trusted to be in government and it would be terrible for the country.
Are you now saying they have changed their minds?
If not surely they too would be in talks to prevent that from happening?

Is it they they were lying all along, or is it that they are looking out for themselves and dont have the country's interest at heart.

Strikes me as a very peculiar situation indeed. Neither want SF in power and the obvious way to achieve that would be a FF/FG/Greens coalition.
So why arent Leo and Martin in talks trying to form a government?

Surely they are not hypocrites?

Loafing Oaf

efanton wrote: »

so why the comment


You do realise you are contradicting yourself.

Also explain to me this.
FF and FG are constantly saying SF cant be trusted to be in government and it would be terrible for the country.
Are you now saying they have changed their minds?
If not surely they too would be in talks to prevent that from happening?

Is it they they were lying all along, or is it that they are looking out for themselves and dont have the country's interest at heart.

Strikes me as a very peculiar situation indeed. Neither want SF in power and the obvious way to achieve that would be a FF/FG/Greens coalition.
So why arent Leo and Martin in talks trying to form a government?

Surely they are not hypocrites?

FF members who favour a deal with FG know it will be a hard sell to the party as a whole. They are basically letting things play out until a critical mass in the party comes to accept that this is the way forward...

charlie14

efanton wrote: »

It obvious that SF can only form a minority government. Despite that they have met with some of the smaller parties today and will be doing the same tomorrow.

Leo and Michael Martin are well aware of this, if FF and FG were so keen on SF forming a government surely they would step forward and offer a stability agreement where they would not put forward or support a motion of no confidence for 2 or 3 years

So at the moment, its SF doing all the legwork, and Leo and Michael Martin sat on their arses doing nothing.

Who is in your considered opinion based on those facts is making a decent effort?

SF have said their preference is for a government of the left. FF and FG appear to be leaving SF publicly at it unhindered.
They both know the numbers are not there an if they also got involved in talks with those parties, should it come to another general election, would be open to accusations of attempting to outbid SF.


Both FF and FG know that to form even a minority government SF will at some stage need to approach them. If either are interesting in granting a C&S, that is the time it would be offered along with the terms for granting it.

charlie14

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

FF members who favour a deal with FG know it will be a hard sell to the party as a whole. They are basically letting things play out until a critical mass in the party comes to accept that this is the way forward...

If it comes down to it, it would be an easier sell for both where the one that got the most numbers together to form a minority government would be granted a C&S by the other.

JohnnyFlash

Out this evening helping to take down the election posters. Won't be putting them into cold storage... This was followed by a pint-driven meeting of the local FG cumann.

Obviously a very bad result for the party, and there were discussions about how the simple message of economic growth, balanced budgets, financial prudence, and a strong position on the UK/EU post-Brexit trade deal didn't resonate with the electorate. There was very broad agreement on the impact the FG party has made to Irish social society - abortion legislation, same sex marriage rights, divorce; a State apology to the victims of laundries, convents, and Mother and Child homes. All delivered under FG lead governments.

It's now time for FG to enter opposition. We are a broad church, and the feeling is that FG's time in Government is over. Consider it the gap year while we go off and try and discover ourselves again.

Junkyard Tom

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Obviously a very bad result for the party, and there were discussions about how the simple message of economic growth, balanced budgets, financial prudence, and a strong position on the UK/EU post-Brexit trade deal didn't resonate with the electorate.

Just say it bro. Just say 'the idiots don't know how good they have it and it's all down to us' (not their own hard work).

There was very broad agreement on the impact the FG party has made to Irish social society - abortion legislation, same sex marriage rights, divorce; a State apology to the victims of laundries, convents, and Mother and Child homes. All delivered under FG lead governments.

FG were ten years behind the population on these issues - leading from behind. Tory Boy Varadkar waited until he saw the wind blowing strongly in favour of equal marriage before explicitly supporting it.

maccored

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

To understand the IRA/SF mentality and claims to have left the past behind, its important to consider that the first part of deradicalization is understanding individuals’ psychological state, previous trauma, and personal circumstances—not just their political and religious beliefs.

One of the hallmarks of a terrorist worldview is its rigidity: us and them, the righteous and the unbelievers. Cracking that is key to deradicalization. Those jailed for such offenses—overwhelmingly men - were prime targets for further radicalization in prison, to move them from glorification to action. These are closed systems that can develop strong hierarchies.

In fact, confusion and uncertainty are often better signs that deradicalization is working than strong pledges that a person has changed. You’re talking about people with black-and-white views on ethics; all their answers are put on a plate for them; they have strong identities and membership of a group. If someone breaks that black-and-white view—moral ennui, that’s what they’re going to face. It’s like leaving a cult. There’s a sense of having no community, an identity crisis, a morality crisis, maybe even becoming more isolated.

I normally would think when reading the post above, that it was somebody taking the piss ... and then I realise they actually believe themselves. I must be hanging out with the wrong shinners because this whole 'cult' lark is red top newspaper bollox.

maccored

charlie14 wrote: »

SF have said their preference is for a government of the left. FF and FG appear to be leaving SF publicly at it unhindered.
They both know the numbers are not there an if they also got involved in talks with those parties, should it come to another general election, would be open to accusations of attempting to outbid SF.


Both FF and FG know that to form even a minority government SF will at some stage need to approach them. If either are interesting in granting a C&S, that is the time it would be offered along with the terms for granting it.

I see SF and maybe 20-25 others making a left block and then offering to go in with FF. that way the onus will be on FF to do something, and even if they did, they'd have less direct influence in the eventual government and if they didnt, sinn fein would get - what in my opinion the best idea - 5 years as direct opposition and build up on seats in the following election.

JohnnyFlash

Junkyard Tom wrote: »

Just say it bro. Just say 'the idiots don't know how good they have it and it's all down to us' (not their own hard work)..

Not at all, Tom. The FG message failed. It's didn't resonate with the people. Brexit, and the impacts of same, was the mantra of FG. Rejected.



All democratic parties are well aware of the need for a content and productive working class. Nothing new there. Basic enough stuff I would have thought?

cameramonkey

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Out this evening helping to take down the election posters. Won't be putting them into cold storage... This was followed by a pint-driven meeting of the local FG cumann.

Obviously a very bad result for the party, and there were discussions about how the simple message of economic growth, balanced budgets, financial prudence, and a strong position on the UK/EU post-Brexit trade deal didn't resonate with the electorate.

Thats why you messed up no talk about housing or health because you didnt bother doing anything to improve those sectors.

Yurt2

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

It's now time for FG to enter opposition. We are a broad church, and the feeling is that FG's time in Government is over. Consider it the gap year while we go off and try and discover ourselves again.

I love it. Part of me wants me to see the country going back to the polls to witness FG fighting an election asking the electorate to vote for them so they can sit on the ditch and lick their wounds.

If your messaging was bad over the last few weeks surrounding your non-performance on key issues, I can't wait to see what you guys come up with in that circumstance.

Edgware

How long can this country survive without the genius of Noel Rock to guide us?

john9876

If there was another election and SF fielded the perfect number of candidates and their vote held up, how many seats could they get?

JohnnyFlash

cameramonkey wrote: »

Thats why you messed up no talk about housing or health because you didnt bother doing anything to improve those sectors.

Sláintecare
The NCH
More social housing being delivered this year that at any stage in the past 36 years.

Obviously if there was more money then more would have been done. It’s all about the economy stupid. That’s a Bill Clinton quote btw.

Jinglejangle69

Pop in and see the usual SF anti FG supporters outraged that FG won't go into government after years of saying they want FG out of government.

Then remember it's SF and they are bricking it at the thought of having to actually govern the country and make hard decisions.

Have a giggle to myself and exit the page to enjoy my day:)

Yurt2

john9876 wrote: »

If there was another election and SF fielded the perfect number of candidates and their vote held up, how many seats could they get?

It depends on what brought us back to the ballot box. If it is FF / FG obstinacy in refusing the grand coalition after they both hypothetically reject SF as a partner, it will play further into SF's hands.

Bertie the wise was on the Eamon Dunphy podcast the other day and if they they got their fielding strategy right last Saturday, they had the votes to bring home at least another 11 seats.

Yurt2

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Pop in see the usual SF anti FG supporters outraged that FG won't go into government after years of saying they want FG outog Gov.

Then remember it's SF and they are bricking it at the thought of having to actually govern the country and make hard decisions.

Have a giggle to myself and exit the page to enjoy my day:)

Remind us, which is the party trying to tell us they are now the official opposition despite being in a position to be a minority party in government with FF?

Once the media conversation moves to the grand coalition that FG are loathe to take part in, things will get very sticky for FG supporters and all the hot air coming out of their gobs.

FG: The party of responsibility to the party of protest in one short month. Have to hand it to ye lads, it's been a hell of a ride watching you convulse in agony.

McMurphy

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Pop in and see the usual SF anti FG supporters outraged that FG won't go into government after years of saying they want FG out of government.

Then remember it's SF and they are bricking it at the thought of having to actually govern the country and make hard decisions.

Have a giggle to myself and exit the page to enjoy my day:)

Who's doing this?

To be fair you're not the only one saying it, but who's outraged that FG are heading off in a strop?

You just seem to be repeating a narrative with no substance.

Fionn1952

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Out this evening helping to take down the election posters. Won't be putting them into cold storage... This was followed by a pint-driven meeting of the local FG cumann.

Obviously a very bad result for the party, and there were discussions about how the simple message of economic growth, balanced budgets, financial prudence, and a strong position on the UK/EU post-Brexit trade deal didn't resonate with the electorate. There was very broad agreement on the impact the FG party has made to Irish social society - abortion legislation, same sex marriage rights, divorce; a State apology to the victims of laundries, convents, and Mother and Child homes. All delivered under FG lead governments.

It's now time for FG to enter opposition. We are a broad church, and the feeling is that FG's time in Government is over. Consider it the gap year while we go off and try and discover ourselves again.

Hopefully this doesn't get taken up the wrong way, but a bunch of (presumably older) blokes sitting round a few pints talking about how you're great and the voters just don't realise how much you've done for them is pretty nailed on the PR issue that FG have.

Reading your post immediately made me think of this:



On the lead up to the election, having been quite impressed by a few things during FG's time in government (being from the North originally, Brexit negotiations were of particularly high important to me) I was certainly considering giving them a mid-high preference on my ballot.

The RIC faux pas knocked them down a few spots, but Leo's statements afterwards where he essentially blamed the public for not being mature enough just snapped me right back to sticking them down near the bottom. Same old FG, 'we know better because we are better' arrogance (from the party, not you personally).

Edgware

john9876 wrote: »

If there was another election and SF fielded the perfect number of candidates and their vote held up, how many seats could they get?

Theres a few ifs there. They had some big surpluses but it would still take some management of the vote. O Broin and Ward did it in Dublin but it might not be possible in every constituency. Certainly all things being equal they would get at least six. Then who is going to lose. Soc Dems PBPs. It mightnt change the left right balance too much.
It would show the other left groupings Sinn Féin's true intentiond

Yurt2

Fionn1952 wrote: »

Same old FG, 'we know better because we are better' arrogance (from the party, not you personally).

There's a fair amount of that going on among the FG rank and file as well to be fair.

pjohnson

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Pop in and see the usual SF anti FG supporters outraged that FG won't go into government after years of saying they want FG out of government.

Then remember it's SF and they are bricking it at the thought of having to actually govern the country and make hard decisions.

Have a giggle to myself and exit the page to enjoy my day:)

Yeah that makes no sense still but its adorable.

Fionn1952

Yurt! wrote: »

There's a fair amount of that going on among the FG rank and file as well to be fair.

I'd prefer to avoid painting with too broad of a brush. Plenty of FG voters in my work and social circle who I certainly wouldn't attribute that attitude to. I feel a lot more comfortable commenting on the party image rather than individual supporters.

LeinsterDub

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

It's now time for FG to enter opposition. We are a broad church, and the feeling is that FG's time in Government is over. Consider it the gap year while we go off and try and discover ourselves again.

No mention of housing, health, climate or transport. You'll be on a gap decade with this sort of denial

limnam

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Sláintecare
The NCH
More social housing being delivered this year that at any stage in the past 36 years.

Obviously if there was more money then more would have been done. It’s all about the economy stupid. That’s a Bill Clinton quote btw.

If you're wasting hundreds of millions on things like Irish water or increasing your loans by a few billion to attempt to fool your voters. You will have less money to spend on things like hosuing.


Come off it Johnny.

This is it

McMurphy wrote: »

Who's doing this?

To be fair you're not the only one saying it, but who's outraged that FG are heading off in a strop?

You just seem to be repeating a narrative with no substance.

You haven't seen anyone here moaning about FG being OK with being in opposition?

I'm on my phone now but I'll easily find a few posts later if you need me to.

FrancieBrady

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Pop in and see the usual SF anti FG supporters outraged that FG won't go into government after years of saying they want FG out of government.

Then remember it's SF and they are bricking it at the thought of having to actually govern the country and make hard decisions.

Have a giggle to myself and exit the page to enjoy my day:)

Who's 'outraged'?

I'm just satisfied that they can never again point the finger at anyone else deciding that being a part of a particular government is not for them.

I also think it is just Leo keeping the attention on himself and playing political games.
He'll go into government if it is the politically expedient thing to do.

Yurt2

This is it wrote: »

You haven't seen anyone here moaning about FG being OK with being in opposition?

I'm not moaning about it, but I'm certainly enjoying the opportunity to highlight that Fine Gael are gleefully scampering off to the opposition benches with a paper bag over their collective heads hoping no one approaches them to be a junior party in government.

Party of responsibility, of Collins, of competency and the national interest. All looking like pretty feeble taglines for this bunch.

LeinsterDub

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Sláintecare
The NCH
More social housing being delivered this year that at any stage in the past 36 years.

Obviously if there was more money then more would have been done. It’s all about the economy stupid. That’s a Bill Clinton quote btw.

Sláintecare wasn't their idea and they are dragging their feet on it
The NCH is massively over budget, you claim their wasn't money but they discovered a money tree for the NCH
FG's definition of social is to build housing so they can pump more money into HAP.

McMurphy

Just listening to Newstalk here, and the commentator reckons they've been out and about talking with various independents and getting their views on any notion of entering a coalition involving the shinners and other left leaning party's


The general consensus seems to have been that many wouldn't have any issue whatsoever, though some said they wouldn't be prepared to enter a coalition involving Sinn Fein, but just as many said absolutely no way would they want to get involved in any coalition involving the greens due to their involvement in govt the last time.


A toxic green party. There you have it.