GE Exit Poll 10 pm

listermint

Amira Fancy Thriller wrote: »

Not trying to win kudos, just giving my opinion. Is that an offence now?

No it's not an offence it's a spoof.

Your painting an election result in Ireland as if it's some sort of socialist despot takeover.

For someone who claims an education that you have surely you can see why others in your same situation would call you out on your paranoia.

It's not factual.

And other folks have the same and better opportunities than yourself aren't claiming they'll leave the island either.


It's a bit.... Well dramatic.


I suppose your going it for a reason. Haven't quite discovered what that reason is yet.

rdwight

circadian wrote: »

I agree but when it was on your doorstep for the first 15 odd years of your life with the usual dickheads making life hard for you if you weren't involved then it's hard to support someone who had also taken part.

I have family that were volunteers, I'd never vote for them. I'll talk to them and be civil but that's it.

If Sinn Fein had put forward a younger candidate that didn't have involvement with the Provo's then I'd consider it.

Agreed. SF need to be "youthwashed" and maybe this election is the start of a long process.

Spanish Eyes

listermint wrote: »

No brexit was voted on a dogmatic message of sovereignty. That someone else somewhere was ruling the population a foreign country.

This election was fought on housing, rental market, health.

It's got nothing to do with what you've said and all of the parties put out their stall on it which people looked at and voted for.

We don't have the same destructive media as the UK . We haven't had 40 years of anti EU bile.


The comparison is immature. You don't grasp the difference. It's your annoyance at a poll that is colouring your view.

I suppose SF will solve all this so. And SF voters didn't care to find out if they could either. QED.

I don't agree about the media here either. They for sure are not as bad as the rags in the uk, but they can influence the agenda. I suppose SM here is saintly in comparison to UK media influence. But it is the way of the future anyway, for those who are INFLUENCED. Geddit.

dxhound2005

One place I can't see doctors or anyone else fleeing to is NI where SF are in power. The Health Service is in a shambles. Probably not to GB either, where it is just as bad.

storker

meeeeh wrote: »

And because one or both of you work in public sector you will be insulated from policies that will damage economy. I'm in a similar situation but since we are running a business voting for SF would be like turkeys voting for Christmas.

One of us, and not really because I am the major earner and am a private sector contractor with even less workers rights that other private sector employees. If your business requires that you prop up government that sticks it to the citizens in favour of the big boys, well that's a pretty sad state of affairs.

firemansam4

Would I be right in thinking that if these exit polls are close then FF will want to avoid another election as much as possible?

Given that SF will have a chance to run many more candidates in another election?

limnam

dxhound2005 wrote: »

One place I can't see doctors or anyone else fleeing to is NI where SF are in power. The Health Service is in a shambles. Probably not to GB either, where it is just as bad.

Not sure you can blame a westminster funded NHS on SF.

Calhoun

listermint wrote: »

I love this type of analysis when doctors and medical professionals are fleeing the country right now and have been for years because they are over worked.

Sure people can't get a gp around the country because surgeries are maxed out.

This is happening now. Without any other parties in power

Additionally to this, we have a lumbering public sector that moves for no man or woman easily.

If SF did become leaders of the government tomorrow what do people really think they are going to do?

tikkahunter

listermint wrote: »

I'd imagine folks spending three quarters of wages on rent and no prospect of buying a home and zero protection for long term rentals are pretty clued in.

And you reckon SF are going to have the answer to that .All the crap they are proposing is not affordable without bankrupting the country and the rent freezes , salary drops etc would be challenged in courts as they unconstitutional.As for the everyone has right to a home being put into the constitution- the flood gates would open from Europe and the the country would be flooded with the 'poxy foreigners' that a lot of their supporters despise.

listermint

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I suppose SF will solve all this so. And SF voters didn't care to find out if they could either. QED.

I don't agree about the media here either. They for sure are not as bad as the rags in the uk, but they can influence the agenda. I suppose SM here is saintly in comparison to UK media influence. But it is the way of the future anyway, for those who are INFLUENCED. Geddit.

But theres a dichotomy there in your own analysis.

The under informed voter who won't bother reading up on policies is also the voter who reads up on policies via the news.

I mean we don't have a pro SF media here so which are these people.

Informed by choice or not informed by choice...


Perplexing view point I suppose.

rdwight

markodaly wrote: »

They certainly can.

The people especially the young, voted for SF to enact change. Not posture and sit on the opposition benches until the next election.
These people wanted SF to help them now, not in 5 years time when it's more politically convenient.

Another possibility is that the housing/health situation will have improved in five years - maybe even by FF implementing so SF policies.

RMAOK

firemansam4 wrote: »

Would I be right in thinking that if these exit polls are close then FF will want to avoid another election as much as possible?

Given that SF will have a chance to run many more candidates in another election?

Fine Gael won't want another election either, for the exact same reason.

FG will probably end up in government again. Judging by the voting demographics for SF, their 2 priorities will be to get houses built and the pension age.

That’ll wipe out the SF protest vote.

listermint

tikkahunter wrote: »

And you reckon SF are going to have the answer to that .All the crap they are proposing is not affordable without bankrupting the country and the rent freezes , salary drops etc would be challenged in courts as they unconstitutional.As for the everyone has right to a home being put into the constitution- the flood gates would open from Europe and the the country would be flooded with the 'poxy foreigners' that a lot of their supporters despise.

Ah the foreigners argument

Coming over here taking ... What this time..

Oh our cheap apartments.



Lol

Amira Fancy Thriller

Amira Fancy Thriller wrote: »

Could do. I work in IT and wife in Radiography, both with decent opportunities elsewhere and the ability to obtain visas. The biggest issue would be selling the house.

Not exactly scrambling to pack the suitcases but would keep an open mind around it.

Don't underestimate the ability for people to move towards the opportunities.

Radiographers are so overpaid for what they do in Ireland. You won't leave because your wife would prob have to take a pay cut of 30-40% (which is what they should be at)

listermint

[Deleted User] wrote: »

FG will probably end up in government again. Judging by the voting demographics for SF, their 2 priorities will be to get houses built and the pension age.

That’ll whipe out the SF protest vote.

Most likely.

But it will give them caution as was intended I presume.

Enough of the fluff.

Action

Fred Cryton

storker wrote: »

We have no way of knowing what they'll do yet, because they're very unlikely to be able to form a government on their own. What we do know is that FFG won't fix these things because they've had decades in with to do it and they didn't think it important enough. Maybe SF can influence a new government into doing better. Anyone who thinks that parties say they'll do when they get into power is the same as what they actually do hasn't been paying attention. SF are known for playing "the long game". Perhaps that will extend to knowing they if they get into government in some form and and screw up, a terrible punishment will be at most five years away. And the reason SF are in this position is because of FFG's indifference towards its own citizens, and not voter stupidity.

So you'd vote for SF, and then hope their policies are changed or blocked by their government partner? lol ok, makes so much sense. Either you endorse their manifesto or you don't.

Spanish Eyes

Roll on tomorrow. Must look up when count coverage starts. Note to self.

Qrt

Larbre34 wrote: »

They won't even, you have to consider SFs unique conversion rate, or lack thereof.

Also, and my wife reminded me of this; she was talking to the guy doing the exit poll at our station. He was tasked to profile every 3rd voter. She said she'd happily respond to it and the chap said 'thanks but no, you're not the random 3rd person'

She watched how he was getting on for 20 minutes or so. Many people refused, mostly of the typical blueshirt profile. SF type voters were only delighted to respond to the poll.

My point is, the shy FFG vote and the poor transferability of SF, not to mind the exit poll only captures No. 1s and is skewed as I described above, means the poll is pretty useless.

I'm sticking with my ceiling of 25 seats for SF.

Not wanting to be too nosy, but what general area is the polling station? I’ve had many elections now and I’ve never seen a pollster.

thequarefellow

Deleted User wrote: »

FG will probably end up in government again. Judging by the voting demographics for SF, their 2 priorities will be to get houses built and the pension age.

That’ll wipe out the SF protest vote.

Well if they make building houses a real priority then you could say the protest vote worked.

tikkahunter

listermint wrote: »

Ah the foreigners argument

Coming over here taking ... What this time..

Oh our cheap apartments.



Lol

Free Mortgages:D:D

Credit has to be given to Varadkar and Fine Gael. They waited until BREXIT negotiations were done. They resisted their natural political instincts which told them that an earlier election when their popularity was higher was preferable and they would have been able to shake themselves free of the Confidence and Supply agreement. They might not have got a majority but they would have probably been able to cobble together a coalition with a smaller party.
Varadkar like Alan Dukes will be remembered as someone who put the Country before his own political aspirations.
His biggest problem going in to Government was that he just couldn't disown the heinous policies of those two thundering eejits Enda and Noonan. Those Boyos did nothing on health and what they did with regard to housing strategy tied his hands during his time in office.

Outlook; normally FG would attract more transfers than FF after first preferences but the signal is clearly there that the public are dissatisfied so I think they will still be transfer friendly but less transfer friendly than FF and we'll have musical chairs with FF taking power and FG entering a confidence and supply agreement. It can be argued as "only fair" and stops SF being the largest opposition party.

meeeeh

Nobody will be fleeing anywhere just because SF are in power. There a few problems, if they get in power they will be most likely smaller party. As a smaller party in government they could be hurt like Labour and loose votes. I think they will be holding off till next election hoping it comes soon and they can run more candidates.

FF I think are in trouble. Martin is grand as a leader (no better than LV and MLMD) but they had to build the whole campaign on him because the rest of the party performed poorly. Not a sustainable model for any party.

RMAOK

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Roll on tomorrow. Must look up when count coverage starts. Note to self.

The vote counting starts at 9 a.m.
Think rte start their coverage earlier with a special edition of morning Ireland.

Qrt

[Deleted User] wrote: »

FG will probably end up in government again. Judging by the voting demographics for SF, their 2 priorities will be to get houses built and the pension age.

That’ll wipe out the SF protest vote.

You also have their big decision, do they intervene massively in the housing market, pretty much going against their core principles, in order to hold off SF?

Larbre34

Qrt wrote: »

Not wanting to be too nosy, but what general area is the polling station? I’ve had many elections now and I’ve never seen a pollster.

No problem at all. A mixed socio economic district within Dublin West.

rdwight

thequarefellow wrote: »

Facing a life of renting in a country that is not set up to support that kind of system is pretty scary.

STB. wrote: »

Would a free house help ?

I find it ironic that SF support should be so strong in areas with a lot of social housing. Given the state of the property market, people in council houses have effectively won the lottery.

SusieBlue

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Ever hear of the bus or train?

These types of comments are absolutely infuriating.
People will want to live where there are jobs, you know, to earn money to live?
The vast majorities of jobs, from baristas to accountants, happen to be located in our big cities.
There are far, far less job opportunities in small towns and villages. Otherwise everyone would be looking to live out there.

It is completely unreasonable to expect and condone someone commuting 2/3 hours a day for work just for the very basic privilege of having a roof over their heads. A privilege they’re probably paying over half their wage for to boot.
And besides that, our public transport just cannot support it. It’s on it’s knees as it is. It’s just not acceptable or sustainable but it’s an unfortunate reality for a lot of people that we should be trying to get away from, not perpetuate.

What the government should be doing is encouraging multinationals and large businesses to open premises in more rural locations, where there is actual space to build more housing.

Suggesting someone just move out to the back arse of Laois is a most lazy, uneducated, arrogant solution to what is a very complex problem.

thequarefellow

Deleted User wrote: »

Credit has to be given to Varadkar and Fine Gael. They waited until BREXIT negotiations were done. They resisted their natural political instincts which told them that an earlier election when their popularity was higher was preferable and they would have been able to shake themselves free of the Confidence and Supply agreement. They might not have got a majority but they would have probably been able to cobble together a coalition with a smaller party.
Varadkar like Alan Dukes will be remembered as someone who put the Country before his own political aspirations.
His biggest problem going in to Government was that he just couldn't disown the heinous policies of those two thundering eejits Enda and Noonan. Those Boyos did nothing on health and what they did with regard to housing strategy tied his hands during his time in office.

Outlook; normally FG would attract more transfers than FF after first preferences but the signal is clearly there that the public are dissatisfied so I think they will still be transfer friendly but less transfer friendly than FF and we'll have musical chairs with FF taking power and FG entering a confidence and supply agreement. It can be argued as "only fair" and stops SF being the largest opposition party.

Noonan was a disgusting piece of work. Mouthing off now that Pascal Donoghue should take over FG. He really has it in for that party.

tikkahunter

meeeeh wrote: »

Nobody will be fleeing anywhere just because SF are in power. There a few problems, if they get in power they will be most likely smaller party. As a smaller party in government they could be hurt like Labour and loose votes. I think they will be holding off till next election hoping it comes soon and they can run more candidates.

FF I think are in trouble. Martin is grand as a leader (no better than LV and MLMD) but they had to build the whole campaign on him because the rest of the party performed poorly. Not a sustainable model for any party.

Should of got rid of Martin early doors , he is part of the old brigade that took the country down . They needed a fresh face in there it was a major **** up.