GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Yurt2

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

What is the point in posting this screed over and over again in slightly different words? The counter-argument has put to you that all FG's talk about 'rebuilding in opposition' is just spin and that when push comes to shove they will almost certainly cut a deal with FF to avoid another election but you're not engaging with that.

More likely the two parties start devouring each other internally.

The look on FG representatives faces and the hum of desperation off the posts of FG supporters gives lie to your theory that this is some sort of genius 'spin' masterplan they had provided for pre-election after they got their backsides handed to them.

'Oh we totally meant to lose a swathe of seats and leave junior partnership with FF or another election as the only options on our plate.'

They're barely holding the party together at this stage I'd suspect. The pressure will mount over the next few days to a week.

charlie14

maccored wrote: »

I see SF and maybe 20-25 others making a left block and then offering to go in with FF. that way the onus will be on FF to do something, and even if they did, they'd have less direct influence in the eventual government and if they didnt, sinn fein would get - what in my opinion the best idea - 5 years as direct opposition and build up on seats in the following election.

You have a few scenarios and assumptions there that I can see a problem with.


First if SF roll up to FF saying we have 57 -62 now in solid numbers it will only be because they have already agreed a programme for government with that 20 -25 and are looking for FF to sign on the dotted line. Cannot see that happening.


Secondly with the same elected TD`s as SF I do not see where the onus is on FF, or indeed FG, to form a coalition with SF where both campaigned on the message they would not.
The only onus on FF, and on FG to a lesser extent because of their number, is to attempt to form a government themselves with support from others. Alternatively, as FG are apparently doing, for both to do what SF did in 2016. Say the numbers are not there for us so we are sitting this one out.



Thirdly, if SF come to either of them with the backing of 57 -62 TD`s that would be well within the range of seats that the present minority government governed with for the past 4 years. If one or the other, FG or FF, offered a C&S would the real onus not then be on SF to accept rather than cause another general election.

efanton

Well it looks like the worst possible outcome for all those that voted for a change in the way this country has been governed for decades now has just become a reality

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/
FF agrees not to enter coalition talks with SF

The only conceivable government possible now is FF/FG/Greens unless of course Michael Martin wants to commits political suicide in grandiose style and force another general election.

rob316

dxhound2005 wrote: »

SF are the experts at waiting around for other parties to lose, so they can get in at the top. That's why they refused to be part of any negotiations in 2016. And it is how they and the DUP wore down the middle ground in the North.

When they got power there, they simply carried on with the policies which they raged against when the SDLP and UUP had the reins. I expect they will try to force another election now. Whether they have any more worthwhile candidates remains to be seen.

I only remember 2 parties leaders saying they wouldn't do business with another party and it wasn't MLM.

MM is absolutely desperate to be taoiseach, he was asked point blank last Sunday would you talk to SF and he said he will respect the Democratic choice of the people. That was when they were predicted to get 47 seats, he's even worse off now. It's up to him to convince his party into a coalition with them, because behind all the bluster he doesn't care as long as he is taoiseach.

charlie14

Yurt! wrote: »

More likely the two parties start devouring each other internally.

The look on FG representatives faces and the hum of desperation off the posts of FG supporters gives lie to your theory that this is some sort of genius 'spin' masterplan they had provided for pre-election after they got their backsides handed to them.

'Oh we totally meant to lose a swathe of seats and leave junior partnership with FF or another election as the only options on our plate.'

They're barely holding the party together at this stage I'd suspect. The pressure will mount over the next few days to a week.

I have no skin in the game as I voted for none of the now three main parties. But from posts here I am detecting a pissed off attitude from those that may have been FG and FF voters, and a sense of desperation from those that may have been SF voters if neither FG or FF decide to play ball tbh.

James Brown

efanton wrote: »

Well it looks like the worst possible outcome for all those that voted for a change in the way this country has been governed for decades now has just become a reality

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/
FF agrees not to enter coalition talks with SF

The only conceivable government possible now is FF/FG/Greens unless of course Michael Martin wants to commits political suicide in grandiose style and force another general election.

So much for the 'stability' farce. Varadkar counted FG out before the dust settled. Lots of FF/FG voters will be wondering what was the point and it will likely look good for SF if we are pushed to another election.
You would think FF/FG would be interested because I can't see another election going any better for them or are they thinking Lisbon treaty, the public got it wrong, try again? That would be amazing arrogance.

Foxtrol

rob316 wrote: »

I only remember 2 parties leaders saying they wouldn't do business with another party and it wasn't MLM.

Ignoring history and loose cannon TDs, how do you do business with a party that has a manifesto that has elements that you fundamentally disagree with and the maths is pie in the sky nonsense?

meeeeh

Bowie wrote: »

So much for the 'stability' farce. Varadkar counted FG out before the dust settled. Lots of FF/FG voters will be wondering what was the point and it will likely look good for SF if we are pushed to another election.
You would think FF/FG would be interested because I can't see another election going any better for them or are they thinking Lisbon treaty, the public got it wrong, try again? That would be amazing arrogance.

Not really, you take seat losses, rebuild in opposition and when SF go the way of Labour because they won't be able to follow up on their promises, you try with another election. That's if left wing government composed of more fractious than there are parties actually survives 4 years.

That being said at some stage there won't be space for both FF and FG. Either they will merge or one will go down and other one survive.

rob316

Foxtrol wrote: »

Ignoring history and loose cannon TDs, how do you do business with a party that has a manifesto that has elements that you fundamentally disagree with and the maths is pie in the sky nonsense?

All manifesto's are full of **** and not worth the paper they are printed on. They can still put together a program for government. Both committed to large amounts of social housing, public spending and tax cuts. They're not that far apart as people think IMO.

ricero

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

campo

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

They will come together to form a coalition, they are just letting SF have first dabs knowing full well the numbers are not there so they can come out later on and say oh for the good of the country we just had no other choice

meeeeh

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

Because first SF has to have a chance to build their own coalition and then they will get in power with each other or risk another election.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/Philip_Ryan/status/1227965320255725575


So i fully expect an other 40 pages of but what about SF!

LeinsterDub

meeeeh wrote: »

Because first SF has to have a chance to build their own coalition and then they will get in power with each other or risk another election.

SF doesn't have to have a chance to do anything. That's not how it works.

James Brown

meeeeh wrote: »

Not really, you take seat losses, rebuild in opposition and when SF go the way of Labour because they won't be able to follow up on their promises, you try with another election. That's if left wing government composed of more fractious than there are parties actually survives 4 years.

That being said at some stage there won't be space for both FF and FG. Either they will merge or one will go down and other one survive.

Isn't that playing politics? What about 'stability', the reason an eager FG went in with support from FF, for the country? A farce?

meeeeh

LeinsterDub wrote: »

SF doesn't have to have a chance to do anything. That's not how it works.

It's much better optics, we gave them time to try but it's not our fault if nobody wants to go into power with them. And then you either offer grand coalition for the good of the state or new election to give SF chance to field more candidates.

meeeeh

Bowie wrote: »

Isn't that playing politics? What about 'stability', the reason an eager FG went in with support from FF, for the country? A farce?

Of course it is. Do you think promising a pie in the sky isn't?

James Brown

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

Without their dyed in the wool support they will loose their grip on the country. Same reason FF won't talk to SF. If FF go in with FG, many of the traditional family hereditary supporters might leave taking away their power base.
FF or FG would rather sit it out than risk that.

James Brown

meeeeh wrote: »

Of course it is. Do you think promising a pie in the sky isn't?

Well that was my point. The stability thing, for the country, used to justify going in with FF, was a con.

LeinsterDub

meeeeh wrote: »

It's much better optics, we gave them time to try but it's not our fault if nobody wants to go into power with them. And then you either offer grand coalition for the good of the state or new election to give SF chance to field more candidates.

What optics, everyone know the only option is FF - FG - ?? .

So the quicker they decided the civil war is over or is still on going the better. This has nothing to do with SF anymore.

Foxtrol

rob316 wrote: »

All manifesto's are full of **** and not worth the paper they are printed on. They can still put together a program for government. Both committed to large amounts of social housing, public spending and tax cuts. They're not that far apart as people think IMO.

I presume you're a SF (or left) voter if you think you can have large amounts of all that and be fiscally responsible.

All parties reach with manifestos but SF's is next level. If you believe FF and FG are already reaching with theirs then how are they go beyond that to find a middle ground with the pie in the sky SF nonsense.

You can't run the finances of the country with ridiculous claims like 'demographics will look after themselves'.

Mantis Toboggan

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

Because FF seem to have gone into hiding and FG are sitting on their hands as usual. This is the only solution along with the greens but they'll drag the arse out of it if possible.

campo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

What optics, everyone know the only option is FF - FG - ?? .

So the quicker they decided the civil war is over or is still on going the better. This has nothing to do with SF anymore.

It has everything to do with SF, if they did not get the numbers they got in this election there is not a chance that FF & FG would even think about going into government together.

I reckon they all thought they were heading for a FF & Green with C & S from FG agreement.

LeinsterDub

campo wrote: »

It has everything to do with SF, if they did not get the numbers they got in this election there is not a chance that FF & FG would even think about going into government together.

I reckon they all thought they were heading for a FF & Green with C & S from FG agreement.

Yeah and if my aunt had balls..... we are where we are now. The die has been cast .

tipptom

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

Absolutely, FG being given a free run by the "free" press on this.
They are being allowed throw their toys out of the pram and walk away without being questioned when they have nearly as much seats as the other two.

Eventually FF/FG will be joining up again after "they protest to much",with Lowry,McGrath,Greens,etc.

They simply cannot countenance another election with the way the voters managed the transfers away from them which was even more impressive than the SF no1s vote.

campo

LeinsterDub wrote: »

Yeah and if my aunt had balls..... we are where we are now. The die has been cast .

Oh I agree but just pointing out that it has to do with SF, so your statement is not correct.

In this instance you are saying my auntie has a b****x

LeinsterDub

campo wrote: »

Oh I agree but just pointing out that it has to do with SF, so your statement is not correct.

In this instance you are saying my auntie has a b****x

For the pendants here . One the election result came it no longer has anything to do with SF. :rolleyes::rolleyes:

Loafing Oaf

efanton wrote: »

The only conceivable government possible now is FF/FG/Greens unless of course Michael Martin wants to commits political suicide in grandiose style and force another general election.

Martin certainly won't want to do that but his party might force his hand.

McMurphy

I stand to collect €425 if it's a FF minority govt.

I'll have immense pleasure watching FFG devour each other if it's a coalition between them which will be like some kind of a forced arranged marriage.

A new election will be great too.

That election result is the gift that keeps on giving.

tipptom

McMurphy wrote: »

I stand to collect €425 if it's a FF minority govt.

I'll have immense pleasure watching FFG devour each other if it's a coalition between them which will be like some kind of a forced arranged marriage.

A new election will be great too.

That election result is the gift that keeps on giving.

Hope you read the small print on that if its with Paddy Power if it does come to pass.