GE Exit Poll 10 pm

Loafing Oaf

Yurt! wrote: »

More likely the two parties start devouring each other internally.

The look on FG representatives faces and the hum of desperation off the posts of FG supporters gives lie to your theory that this is some sort of genius 'spin' masterplan they had provided for pre-election after they got their backsides handed to them.

'Oh we totally meant to lose a swathe of seats and leave junior partnership with FF or another election as the only options on our plate.'

They're barely holding the party together at this stage I'd suspect. The pressure will mount over the next few days to a week.

Of course they're not happy, they didn't want to lose a load of seats, but even if they had held on to five or ten more the basic Dail equation would be the same: A government can only be formed by two out of three of the big parties; FG were never going in with SF; if FF want to do 'a deal with the devil' off with them but failing that there has to be another arrangement of some form between FF and FG. Leo had provided for this before the election when he said he would be prepared to talk to FF about confidence & supply or full coalition and AFAIK he has not resiled from this position despite all the talk of 'going into opposition'. If FF and FG (and the Greens or whoever) do come to an agreement there will be some grumbling within FG but the vast majority will go along with it, because that's the kind of party they are.

McMurphy

tipptom wrote: »

Hope you read the small print on that if its with Paddy Power if it does come to pass.

No didn't read the small print, what am I looking out for Tom and I'll have a check.

Brendan Bendar

McMurphy wrote: »

I stand to collect €425 if it's a FF minority govt.

I'll have immense pleasure watching FFG devour each other if it's a coalition between them which will be like some kind of a forced arranged marriage.

A new election will be great too.

That election result is the gift that keeps on giving.

Hmmm..... strange kind of an attitude one has to surmise.

tipptom

McMurphy wrote: »

No didn't read the small print, what am I looking out for Tom and I'll have a check.

What will they call a minority gov in Power towers?

Grand coalition,is that a minority gov?

Should be okay but I would still be checking their small print.

seamus

ricero wrote: »

Can anyone explain why ff and fg won't come together and form a coalition?

Surprised this is not being pushed more by the media. They are a match made in heaven for each other.

On two accounts;

1. Their party bases are still rooted in being opposite to one another. The nuances of their policies come down to fiscal prudence -v- fiscal abandon. The core support of both parties see themselves as being completely incompatible. To the point that it's unlikely most party members would support a formal coalition.

2. For better or worse, they are still the established main parties. Sinn Féin's position is yet to be proven permanent. And in virtually every democracy, it's taken for granted that the two main parties operate in opposition to one another unless security or stability is an issue.

This is why we got a confidence and supply agreement last around, and are unlikely to get a formal coalition this time around. And why the media don't bring it up (much).

UDAWINNER

I would have thought a FF minority govt means one without any support from SF or FG , maybe abstaining

Water John

A minority Govn't is one with less than 80 voting for it. It can happen by others abstaining and not voting against it.

jos28

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Instead, have they not engineering a perfect position for themselves, and are the ones having played it smartly ? Where does they idea come from that either has a desire to coalesce with SF ? As we are, An FF/FG coalition is far more natural, politically aligned, and involves no strife over dealing with terrorists and their supporters. Well played Martin and Rads.

I said the same thing on Tuesday. MM had the most seats and should have been first off the block but instead himself and LV sat back and waited. I reckon they knew since the results came out that they would join forces and get the GP/SDs to join them. It was obvious SF could not form a Government. I think they allowed MLM to make her phone calls, run around arranging meetings until she ran out of steam.
With all the SF shouting and triumphalism dying off they can calmly step up and put a Government together. MM risked a heave if he entertained the shinners so that was never going to happen. Leo owes MM one for the C&S arrangement. MM gets to be Taoiseach and Leo will be given a nice position in Europe. It wouldn't surprise me that part of the deal will be to keep Simon Coveney as Brexit Man.

Loafing Oaf

tipptom wrote: »

Absolutely, FG being given a free run by the "free" press on this.
They are being allowed throw their toys out of the pram and walk away without being questioned when they have nearly as much seats as the other two.

Eventually FF/FG will be joining up again after "they protest to much",with Lowry,McGrath,Greens,etc.

So they're not walking away?

Is it really such a crime if FF and FG want to drag things out, do a bit of posturing and shadow boxing before they get down to business? Martin will face a struggle to bring his party with him so he needs to choreograph things carefully...

efanton

jos28 wrote: »

I said the same thing on Tuesday. MM had the most seats and should have been first off the block but instead himself and LV sat back and waited. I reckon they knew since the results came out that they would join forces and get the GP/SDs to join them. It was obvious SF could not form a Government. I think they allowed MLM to make her phone calls, run around arranging meetings until she ran out of steam.
With all the SF shouting and triumphalism dying off they can calmly step up and put a Government together. MM risked a heave if he entertained the shinners so that was never going to happen. Leo owes MM one for the C&S arrangement. MM gets to be Taoiseach and Leo will be given a nice position in Europe. It wouldn't surprise that part of the deal will be to keep Simon Coveney as Brexit Man.

That's the best assessment posted on any thread on this forum so far.

Its a shame though the FF and FG feel the need for the political games of forcing MaryLou to run around on what was an impossible mission and now will continue the games by waiting a few weeks before declaring the only outcome that was ever likely a FF/FG/Green coalition, a decision that both Leo and Martin have probably already made.

LeinsterDub

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1227990876749729793?s=19

So can we stop talking about how the ball is in SF's court now?

Brendan Bendar

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1227990876749729793?s=19

So can we stop talking about how the ball is in SF's court now?

Whooooy?

Idbatterim

Look lads, this SF vote has set the cat amongst the pigeons, even if you voted FFG its done a world of good. Those clowns doing nothing for decades, serves non of us. If FFG form a government, I expect some movement and improvement, wont be hard given the farce they always serve up...

jos28

efanton wrote: »

That's the best assessment posted on any thread on this forum so far.

Its a shame though the FF and FG feel the need for the political games of forcing MaryLou to run around on what was an impossible mission and now will continue the games by waiting a few weeks before declaring the only outcome that was ever likely a FF/FG/Green coalition, a decision that both Leo and Martin have probably already made.

Cheers Efanton, I agree with you about the game playing but that's politics for ya !

Plumbthedepths

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1227990876749729793?s=19

So can we stop talking about how the ball is in SF's court now?

This is pretty much the way it was going to pan out once the seat share was known.
However if the Greens go in as mudguard to the big two they're gonna get screwed.

is_that_so

tipptom wrote: »

Absolutely, FG being given a free run by the "free" press on this.
They are being allowed throw their toys out of the pram and walk away without being questioned when they have nearly as much seats as the other two.

Eventually FF/FG will be joining up again after "they protest to much",with Lowry,McGrath,Greens,etc.

They simply cannot countenance another election with the way the voters managed the transfers away from them which was even more impressive than the SF no1s vote.

Who's throwing toys? Two parties have more seats than them so really no obligation on them to do much of anything. I really wouldn't try to imagine the outcome of another election at all.

FrancieBrady

LeinsterDub wrote: »

https://twitter.com/harrymcgee/status/1227990876749729793?s=19

So can we stop talking about how the ball is in SF's court now?

If they go with that the 'ball' will stay in SF's court for a while.

Can't believe the Greens would go in with the two of them. It will be like shooting fish in a barrel next time out.
Unless of course they fix everything.

is_that_so

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

This is pretty much the way it was going to pan out once the seat share was known.
However if the Greens go in as mudguard to the big two they're gonna get screwed.

I don't think they will this time out once they get some of that climate stuff done and FF or FG would be fine with most of that. That they bounced back so quickly from 2011 suggests voters just lumped them in with FF back then.

is_that_so

They finally say a definitive No.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/

jos28

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

This is pretty much the way it was going to pan out once the seat share was known.
However if the Greens go in as mudguard to the big two they're gonna get screwed.

Eamonn Ryan should insist on bringing the SDs along for the ride. He can always blame them if it all goes pear shaped. It could be a great opportunity for the SDs if they get the chance. FF/FG can package it in such a way that they listened to the electorate and here's our nice new shiny Democratic partners. If the new house building figures are to be believed and the planned house building continues the SDs can take a lot of the credit for putting pressure on the big boys.

Spanish Eyes

I don't get this "MM is desperate to be Taoiseach" shyte TBH.

What an egotistical approach. But whatever. Forget it Micheal, just work for the good of the country, not yourself, you may be thanked yet.

Can anyone explain?

Anyway, if FF enter coalition with FG he more than likely WILL be TS, so it just might work for his ego and aspirations for the FF history books. But that's not what we need right now is it?

Honestly.

is_that_so

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't get this "MM is desperate to be Taoiseach" shyte TBH.

What an egotistical approach. But whatever. Forget it Micheal, just work for the good of the country, not yourself, you may be thanked yet.

Can anyone explain?

Anyway, if FF enter coalition with FG he more than likely WILL be TS, so it just might work for his ego and aspirations for the FF history books. But that's not what we need right now is it?

Honestly.

Not coalition, but maybe with minor entities and then a S&C deal with FG.

Spanish Eyes

is_that_so wrote: »

They finally say a definitive No.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/

FFG/Green/other so. Or another election.

is_that_so

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

FFG/Green/other so. Or another election.

The former would need a lot of negotiation IMO and the latter would be pushed out as long as they can. Even SF don't want to get back on that horse quickly. As time goes by we may see some more creative suggestions. Possibly election by June if none of this can be hammered out.

laugh

Doubt the Greens will go in, how many seats did they win based on transfers from SF?

Sir Oxman

is_that_so wrote: »

They finally say a definitive No.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/

FF/FG+ here we come.


SF will annihilate them in a few years if they play their cards right.

jos28

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I don't get this "MM is desperate to be Taoiseach" shyte TBH.

What an egotistical approach. But whatever. Forget it Micheal, just work for the good of the country, not yourself, you may be thanked yet.

Can anyone explain?

Apparently Micheal does not want to go down in history as the only FF leader never to be Taoiseach.

is_that_so

Sir Oxman wrote: »

FF/FG+ here we come.


SF will annihilate them in a few years if they play their cards right.

SF can't go above 50 on account of the oldies and they shouldn't rely on the 35-50s to stick with them.

Spanish Eyes

Sir Oxman wrote: »

FF/FG+ here we come.


SF will annihilate them in a few years if they play their cards right.

Well I would wonder about that TBH. Maybe the FFG/other set up will go hell for leather to achieve everything that SF feel they can do also. Or will be able to point out the problems as to why it cannot be done immediately also.

That would be great, and I know they will be castigated from the Opposition benches for not doing it until it was put up to them. Doesn't matter as long as we get what we can out of whatever emerges.

TBH, and with due respect to SF wins, I think we need a bit of stability now with Brexit and all that. But onwards and upwards and we will see I suppose.

Plumbthedepths

is_that_so wrote: »

I don't think they will this time out once they get some of that climate stuff done and FF or FG would be fine with most of that. That they bounced back so quickly from 2011 suggests voters just lumped them in with FF back then.

The environment is great until you start hitting people hard in the pocket. Anyhoo there'll all adults in the Green party I'm sure they know what lays ahead when you prop up either of the main two.