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GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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    #5822
    Brendan Bendar
    Registered Users Posts: 19,568 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    Plumbthedepths wrote: »
    The environment is great until you start hitting people hard in the pocket. Anyhoo there'll all adults in the Green party I'm sure they know what lays ahead when you prop up either of the main two.

    A lot more than the Greens going to hammer the pocket, dude.

    Haven’t you heard.......:P


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    #5823
    Plumbthedepths
    Closed Accounts Posts: 12,653 ✭✭✭✭Plumbthedepths


    Brendan Bendar wrote: »
    A lot more than the Greens going to hammer the pocket, dude.

    Haven’t you heard.......:P

    You mean people haven't being hammered by the cohort of FG/FF up to now?
    Shinners ain't getting in B this time, so you can dial back the rhetoric.


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    #5824
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    is_that_so wrote: »
    SF can't go above 50 on account of the oldies and they shouldn't rely on the 35-50s to stick with them.
    I wouldn't be capping anything in this atmosphere to be honest.


    The mudguard (Greens, if FF/FG/G happens) will be zeroed and that is for sure.
    The shutout of SF is something which will only fuel others and that again is my opinion - the anger in the air is palpable that parties will not even talk (another big mistake from FF and FG)

    The only reason I can see that the SF new voters 18-65's won't stay with them is if FF/FG adopt the guts of their policies and solve housing/renting and cost of living and restore the social contract.
    And I have no confidence whatosever that that will happen with either Ff or FG.


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    #5825
    cameramonkey
    Closed Accounts Posts: 3,220 ✭✭✭cameramonkey


    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    I wouldn't be capping anything in this atmosphere to be honest.


    The mudguard (Greens, if FF/FG/G happens) will be zeroed and that is for sure.
    The shutout of SF is something which will only fuel others and that again is my opinion - the anger in the air is palpable that parties will not even talk (another big mistake from FF and FG)

    The only reason I can see that the SF new voters 18-65's won't stay with them is if FF/FG adopt the guts of their policies and solve housing/renting and cost of living and restore the social contract.
    And I have no confidence whatosever that that will happen.


    FF/FG have please there sponsors in the building / property developer world. There is no way they will try to solve the housing crisis with pubic housing.


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    #5826
    James Brown
    Closed Accounts Posts: 16,013 ✭✭✭✭James Brown


    cameramonkey wrote: »
    FF/FG have please there sponsors in the building / property developer world. There is no way they will try to solve the housing crisis with pubic housing.

    FF might try build but FG will put the breaks on that.
    Be gas though. I can see Denis O'Brien waiting on his next state contract while FF ask what's in it for them.
    The Greens will be pushing for wolves. Ireland is in dire need.


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    #5827
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    I wouldn't be capping anything in this atmosphere to be honest.


    The mudguard (Greens, if FF/FG/G happens) will be zeroed and that is for sure.
    The shutout of SF is something which will only fuel others and that again is my opinion - the anger in the air is palpable that parties will not even talk (another big mistake from FF and FG)

    The only reason I can see that the SF new voters 18-65's won't stay with them is if FF/FG adopt the guts of their policies and solve housing/renting and cost of living and restore the social contract.
    And I have no confidence whatosever that that will happen.
    Over 65s are now 20%+ of the population and they vote in huge numbers. What gave FF & FG large numbers of seats was support through all demographics. SF don't have that in the oldies and they also will also need to find people of a reasonable quality to top up. That is not a given. As for their new voters I wouldn't guess why they chose them. They may retain a lot of them or they may not. I agree that a cobbled together successful government that took housing off the table to a degree would not be advantageous to SF. Interesting times.


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    #5828
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    Martin stuttering on about forming a radical govt!

    This is pure bullsh1te.


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    #5829
    Suckit
    Registered Users Posts: 11,211 ✭✭✭✭Suckit


    Bowie wrote: »
    FF might try build but FG will put the breaks on that.
    Be gas though. I can see Denis O'Brien waiting on his next state contract while FF ask what's in it for them.
    The Greens will be pushing for wolves. Ireland is in dire need.
    Sounds like we have enough of them.


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    #5830
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Well thats absolutely splendid.

    FF have prven the good judgement to judge and not shirk their analysis than no party of good conscience and morality should have any governmental role involving SF, the courage to state that categorically before the election, and the convition to stand by that after it.

    Kudos to them. I am sure they will have risen in the esteem of many. People moan about political parties promising one thing, yet doing the opposite. Well not in this important case.

    And the reward will no be theirs. Good news for Ireland, and it escapes the rule of men for whom terrorism is in their party tactical closet.

    Hurraaaa!


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    #5831
    votecounts
    Registered Users Posts: 2,624 ✭✭✭votecounts


    UDAWINNER wrote: »
    I would have thought a FF minority govt means one without any support from SF or FG , maybe abstaining
    I think you are right in regards as it is 66/1 on PP, with all variables a lot less.


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    #5832
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Well thats absolutely splendid.

    FF have prven the good judgement to judge and not shirk their analysis than no party of good conscience and morality should have any governmental role involving SF, the courage to state that categorically before the election, and the convition to stand by that after it.

    Kudos to them. I am sure they will have risen in the esteem of many. People moan about political parties promising one thing, yet doing the opposite. Well not in this important case.

    And the reward will no be theirs. Good news for Ireland, and it escapes the rule of men for whom terrorism is in their party tactical closet.

    Hurraaaa!

    Well, someone is having a good day!:D


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    #5833
    Spanish Eyes
    Registered Users Posts: 15,971 ✭✭✭✭Spanish Eyes


    This is great fun. A hopeful future Taioseach sweating.

    A former Taoiseach not giving a flying fk.

    SF rehearsing their next rebel song and their fists.

    Only in Ireland.

    Love it.


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    #5834
    jos28
    Registered Users Posts: 7,195 ✭✭✭jos28


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Well thats absolutely splendid.

    FF have prven the good judgement to judge and not shirk their analysis than no party of good conscience and morality should have any governmental role involving SF, the courage to state that categorically before the election, and the convition to stand by that after it.

    Kudos to them. I am sure they will have risen in the esteem of many. People moan about political parties promising one thing, yet doing the opposite. Well not in this important case.

    And the reward will no be theirs. Good news for Ireland, and it escapes the rule of men for whom terrorism is in their party tactical closet.

    Hurraaaa!

    Well said, I just wish the interviewer had asked MM why he appeared to back pedal on Sunday. He put the heart crossways in me and there was no need :D


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    #5835
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Over 65s are now 20%+ of the population and they vote in huge numbers. What gave FF & FG large numbers of seats was support through all demographics. SF don't have that in the oldies and they also will also need to find people of a reasonable quality to top up. That is not a given. As for their new voters I wouldn't guess why they chose them. They may retain a lot of them or they may not. I agree that a cobbled together successful government that took housing off the table to a degree would not be advantageous to SF. Interesting times.


    SF are on about 12% of 65+ and lead in all categories up to that.
    On the 4th worst turnout ever (assuming 65+ turned out in their large numbers as they always do) we have the result we have now.
    First time a party who won the national vote has been excluded (I am not saying parties have to coalesce but the talks shutout is riling large numbers of people)
    Their are many firsts and no doubt many more to come.


    I've just heard MM spout more drivel on SixOne re-SF 'changing their minds' when the whole country are fully aware that SF said they would talk to all parties but that FF and FG would be their least preferred partners.

    SF have played a blinder on this point and the general public is fully aware of what is happening and it does not look good on the others. (It didn't look well in the campaign either and contributed to the failure of both FF and FG)



    I voted SF this time for the first time, I'm not a member of any party and never have been.

    My only interest is the restoration of the social contract and the demise of the duopoly.
    Just in case I come across as a party hack like so many on here.:)


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    #5836
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,578 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Well thats absolutely splendid.

    FF have prven the good judgement to judge and not shirk their analysis than no party of good conscience and morality should have any governmental role involving SF, the courage to state that categorically before the election, and the convition to stand by that after it.

    Kudos to them. I am sure they will have risen in the esteem of many. People moan about political parties promising one thing, yet doing the opposite. Well not in this important case.

    And the reward will no be theirs. Good news for Ireland, and it escapes the rule of men for whom terrorism is in their party tactical closet.

    Hurraaaa!

    He appeared to give it some serious thought though, whereas FG just reiterated the party line right away. FG will always have more credibility among strongly anti-SF voters from now on...


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    #5837
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    efanton wrote: »
    Its a shame though the FF and FG feel the need for the political games of forcing MaryLou to run around on what was an impossible mission and now will continue the games by waiting a few weeks before declaring the only outcome that was ever likely a FF/FG/Green coalition, a decision that both Leo and Martin have probably already made.

    The games are necessary to keep the less sophisticated of the population happy.

    Sure, in an ideal world it would have been more effective and efficient to move straight to the final solution. And sensible people would have understood that. But the simpler voters would have been up in arms at this, getting their undergarmets entangled with exclamations of 'not respecting the people', 'same old parties', and ejaculations like 'arrogance', and 'blueshirts'.
    But taking a step back, avoids that, lets the reality sink in more slowly, while the other parties blow up a wind about nothing, and have to vacate the stage again. And so FF/FG step in without being seen not having given anyone else their fair chance.
    They dont want the games either. But they know it necessary for good government.


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    #5838
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 21,102 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    (I am not saying parties have to coalesce but the talks shutout is riling large numbers of people)

    I heard a journalist quoted on the radio today saying that the vast majority of people just wanted them to get on with it. If I was able to, I would ask him how does he know that. How do you know that a large number of people are riled by what is going on?

    The only way to find out, apart from surveys, would be to have another election. If the people wanted something definite to emerge, they would vote for it.


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    #5839
    dark crystal
    Registered Users Posts: 10,962 ✭✭✭✭dark crystal


    Same old two party system abides so. Why bother voting at all?

    A clear vote for change obviously means nothing to our FFG masters.


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    #5840
    charlie14
    Registered Users Posts: 15,152 ✭✭✭✭charlie14


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    He appeared to give it some serious thought though, whereas FG just reiterated the party line right away. FG will always have more credibility among strongly anti-SF voters from now on...


    Seems I missed Martin saying he was giving some serous thought to forming a coalition with SF as well.
    When did he say that?


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    #5841
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    jos28 wrote: »
    Well said, I just wish the interviewer had asked MM why he appeared to back pedal on Sunday. He put the heart crossways in me and there was no need :D

    Ach, I dont think there is anything really wrong with considering something. An intinct of having an open mind is utterly preferable to one of being closed. So in the heat of an election and count, when the dust has yet to settle, too much can be read into non-committal comments.
    The important thing is to come out with the right conclusion. And that they did.


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    #5842
    dxhound2005
    Registered Users Posts: 21,102 ✭✭✭✭dxhound2005


    dark crystal wrote: »
    Same old two party system abides so. Why bother voting at all?

    A clear vote for change obviously means nothing to our FFG masters.

    Three party system now, plus another quarter of micro parties and independents. It's what the people want.


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    #5843
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,800 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    jos28 wrote: »
    Eamonn Ryan should insist on bringing the SDs along for the ride. He can always blame them if it all goes pear shaped. It could be a great opportunity for the SDs if they get the chance. FF/FG can package it in such a way that they listened to the electorate and here's our nice new shiny Democratic partners. If the new house building figures are to be believed and the planned house building continues the SDs can take a lot of the credit for putting pressure on the big boys.

    What bull. Just to make you aware on some very basic info. Eamonn Ryan has nothing to do with SD and secondly, Roisin Shorthall is far more clever than to fall for such a ridiculous proposal or suggestion.

    I look forward to Ryan and his shower taking the rap again for FF.


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    #5844
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    efanton wrote: »
    That's the best assessment posted on any thread on this forum so far.

    Its a shame though the FF and FG feel the need for the political games of forcing MaryLou to run around on what was an impossible mission and now will continue the games by waiting a few weeks before declaring the only outcome that was ever likely a FF/FG/Green coalition, a decision that both Leo and Martin have probably already made.
    Well, she was first out of the blocks with a coalition of the left and on the phone so what should they have done, criticised her or encouraged her? I'm not sure there are any games at work. FG were almost instant in their stated position on SF, FF took longer, primarily, I would surmise till they had their meeting today.


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    #5845
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    dark crystal wrote: »
    Same old two party system abides so. Why bother voting at all?
    So that is does abide.

    dark crystal wrote: »
    A clear vote for change obviously means nothing to our FFG masters.
    You contradict yourself here. By definition, if the old two party system continues, then the vote was for no change.
    Which indeed it was. 84% of seats returned as per the previous party make up of the Dail. Thats a strong endorsement for the status quo. Somebody said the phrase 'voted for change' on Sunday, and people seemed to lap it up as if it were true.


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    #5846
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,800 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    Have the Greens made a comment yet on the speculation?


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    #5847
    Fann Linn
    Registered Users Posts: 7,800 ✭✭✭Fann Linn


    charlie14 wrote: »
    Seems I missed Martin saying he was giving some serous thought to forming a coalition with SF as well.
    When did he say that?


    During the count on Sunday afternoon.


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    #5848
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    I heard a journalist quoted on the radio today saying that the vast majority of people just wanted them to get on with it. If I was able to, I would ask him how does he know that. How do you know that a large number of people are riled by what is going on?

    The only way to find out, apart from surveys, would be to have another election. If the people wanted something definite to emerge, they would vote for it.
    Both FF and FG were rejected in terms of the only way we know - both lost share of vote and seats.
    Even FG acknowledge this.
    No one can speak for anyone, any comments here are my own opinion as are yours, sometimes we all forget to preface IMO.

    But it is acknowledged by analysts and commentators that the pre-election shutout of SF was possibly the worst campaign move by two parties at the same time albeit FG were playing catchup publically on that one.



    Hilarious memories on here - as the Politics Forum has pointed out, FG had no qualms BEFORE the GFA and amidst the Troubles forming a govt with the Stickies, Democratic Left (Official IRA) - not exactly a snowhite party of the Troubles what with their printing presses etc and communist leanings and the likes of Gilmore and Rabbitte in 2011.
    Funny old world, isn't it?


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    #5849
    is_that_so
    Registered Users Posts: 32,136 ✭✭✭✭is_that_so


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    Have the Greens made a comment yet on the speculation?
    I think it's more conducive to deals when people don't comment on it. They'd have to bring any deal to an Ard Fheis for approval anyway.


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    #5850
    Brendan Bendar
    Registered Users Posts: 19,568 ✭✭✭✭Brendan Bendar


    dxhound2005 wrote: »
    I heard a journalist quoted on the radio today saying that the vast majority of people just wanted them to get on with it. If I was able to, I would ask him how does he know that. How do you know that a large number of people are riled by what is going on?

    The only way to find out, apart from surveys, would be to have another election. If the people wanted something definite to emerge, they would vote for it.

    Correct and right.

    Lot of ..well one would have to suggest ‘challenged’ folk coming on here and trying to purport that ‘ the vast majority’ want this, know this , have voted for this......

    And these folk think that folk will just swallow that bullsdust without any evidence and start nodding like a backseat dog....... news for yez...:D


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    #5851
    Sir Oxman
    Closed Accounts Posts: 8,492 ✭✭✭Sir Oxman


    is_that_so wrote: »
    Well, she was first out of the blocks with a coalition of the left and on the phone so what should they have done, criticised her or encouraged her? I'm not sure there are any games at work. FG were almost instant in their stated position on SF, FF took longer, primarily, I would surmise till they had their meeting today.
    That's a tad naive.
    Every party is at it, inc SF.
    Just some play it better than others.


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