GE Exit Poll 10 pm

dark crystal · 13-02-2020 8:02pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Three party system now, plus another quarter of micro parties and independents. It's what the people want.

Not going by first preference votes. Not by a long shot. Many of those shutting out SF and negotiating the formation of a government barely got elected by the skin of their teeth.

Anyone who denies the amount of people who voted for change is seriously deluding themselves and the voters won't forget it.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 8:04pm

Mary Lou is taking a bit of time off government formation to appear on the BBC tonight. BBC1 Northern Ireland, The View with Mark Carruthers. 10.35 to 11.15 pm.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 8:06pm

Sir Oxman wrote: »

That's a tad naive.
Every party is at it, inc SF.
Just some play it better than others.

Nah, not remotely. Numbers are against any clear outcome. It's one route or the other. Once one, the SF approach ends, they'll try the other one. That's called waiting not game playing.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 8:06pm

dark crystal wrote: »

Not going by first preference votes. Not by a long shot. Many of those shutting out SF and negotiating the formation of a government barely got elected by the skin of their teeth.

Anyone who denies the amount of people who voted for change is seriously deluding themselves and the voters won't forget it.

More likely the voters will do another volte-face before long and fall out of love with SF. It has happened to all the other parties, when they failed to deliver a Bertie style Celtic Tiger.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 8:07pm

Mary Lou leader of the opposition so. Plenty of speaking time to call out Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

cameramonkey · 13-02-2020 8:07pm

dark crystal wrote: »

Not going by first preference votes. Not by a long shot. Many of those shutting out SF and negotiating the formation of a government barely got elected by the skin of their teeth.

Anyone who denies the amount of people who voted for change is seriously deluding themselves and the voters won't forget it.

The system we have does not guarantee any party a place in government unless they get at least half the seats plus 1. SF got 37 seat and just under 25 % of the vote. They have no divine right to be in power, it is just the way our system works. Many may think that the party that gets the biggest % share of the vote should be in government but SF cannot form a stable coalition so it looks like FF/FG and greens.

is_that_so · 13-02-2020 8:10pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

More likely the voters will do another volte-face before long and fall out of love with SF. It has happened to all the other parties, when they failed to deliver a Bertie style Celtic Tiger.

I think it depends on whether voters do reflect on how it's turned out. If some do shift away from SF then we are back to FF or FG. Even if they stay SF being able to repeat that and get a lot more seats will be a challenge.

Loafing Oaf · 13-02-2020 8:10pm

charlie14 wrote: »

Seems I missed Martin saying he was giving some serous thought to forming a coalition with SF as well.
When did he say that?

I said 'appeared to,' on Sunday, when he declared:
"I’m a democrat. I listen to the people, I respect the decision of the people.”
I'm sure he'll tell us now there's a perfectly innocent explanation for those words. They don't appear to me to be pointing to another FF-FG deal...
I'm sure paranoid SF-phobes will always nurse dark suspicions about Martin after that. Be interesting to see what top Micheal booster Eoghan Harris says on Sunday...

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 8:11pm

Fann Linn wrote: »

Mary Lou leader of the opposition so. Plenty of speaking time to call out Tweedledum and Tweedledee.

Being saying for a while now, SF will be more than happy to occupy the position of largest opposition party. It will force FF/ FG and who whoever is gullible enough to join them to get the finger out and deliver for their employers.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 8:11pm

cameramonkey wrote: »

The system we have does not guarantee any party a place in government unless they get at least half the seats plus 1. SF got 37 seat and just under 25 % of the vote. They have no divine right to be in power, it is just the way our system works. Many may think that the party that gets the biggest % share of the vote should be in government but they cannot form a stable coalition so it looks like FF/FG and greens.

There is not much left to fix now, with full employment and low emigration. Negative equity mostly gone, and low inflation. So they could do a bit on the housing by using the 200,000 empty properties, and struggle on with the HSE. Then near the election time give the pensioners a very big increase. That might put a big hole in the SF agenda, and get them back in again.

FrancieBrady · 13-02-2020 8:12pm

cameramonkey wrote: »

The system we have does not guarantee any party a place in government unless they get at least half the seats plus 1. SF got 37 seat and just under 25 % of the vote. They have no divine right to be in power, it is just the way our system works. Many may think that the party that gets the biggest % share of the vote should be in government but SF cannot form a stable coalition so it looks like FF/FG and greens.

Bit premature to be calling the next gov. FF FG + Greens.

Big decision for the Greens to make here.
And FG could be signing the wipe out of the party again if things go pear shaped.

Will be fun to watch the squirming/positioning.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 8:13pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There is not much left to fix now, with full employment and low emigration. Negative equity mostly gone, and low inflation. So they could do a bit on the housing by using the 200,000 empty properties, and struggle on with the HSE. Then near the election time give the pensioners a very big increase. That might put a big hole in the SF agenda, and get them back in again.

You have it sorted. '.. Not much left to fix... '
ðŸ˜‚

jos28 · 13-02-2020 8:14pm

Fann Linn wrote: »

What bull. Just to make you aware on some very basic info. Eamonn Ryan has nothing to do with SD and secondly, Roisin Shorthall is far more clever than to fall for such a ridiculous proposal or suggestion.

I look forward to Ryan and his shower taking the rap again for FF.

I am well aware of who Eamonn Ryan is, if you read my post again you might deduce that I suggested the GP use the SDs as a buffer.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 8:15pm

Fann Linn wrote: »

You have it sorted. '.. Not much left to fix... '
&#55357;&#56834;

There used to be no big issue about homelessness even though there were just as many people homeless. It was inflation, unemployment and emigration. They are gone now, so there is a lot less to fix.

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 8:16pm

jos28 wrote: »

I am well aware of who Eamonn Ryan is, if you read my post again you might deduce that I suggested the GP use the SDs as a buffer.

Neither Roisin or Catherine are that stupid.

charlie14 · 13-02-2020 8:17pm

is_that_so wrote: »

I think it depends on whether voters do reflect on how it's turned out. If some do shift away from SF then we are back to FF or FG. Even if they stay SF being able to repeat that and get a lot more seats will be a challenge.

Especially that by fielding more candidates to take advantage of their surpluses in constituencies will be endangering others from the left that picked up seats on the back of those surpluses.
To not come back to the same situation we are in now, would require SF raising their first preference vote substantially.

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 8:19pm

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Neither Roisin or Catherine are that stupid.

Indeed. They both know when it is time to jump ship from whatever party they are in for the time being.

Brendan Bendar · 13-02-2020 8:19pm

dark crystal wrote: »

Not going by first preference votes. Not by a long shot. Many of those shutting out SF and negotiating the formation of a government barely got elected by the skin of their teeth.

Anyone who denies the amount of people who voted for change is seriously deluding themselves and the voters won't forget it.

How do you establish the scenario that people ‘voted for change’and that suddenly other people who voted for other parties voted also voted for change??

Can you square that circle for us.

To me anyway, a poor auld tosser, it’s very close and inconclusive.

You need to tell us how you arrive at your conclusions.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 8:19pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There used to be no big issue about homelessness even though there were just as many people homeless. It was inflation, unemployment and emigration. They are gone now, so there is a lot less to fix.

I never said there was a homeless problem.
There is a housing problem however.

Spanish Eyes · 13-02-2020 8:20pm

dark crystal wrote: »

Same old two party system abides so. Why bother voting at all?

A clear vote for change obviously means nothing to our FFG masters.

Sorry what?

Did you read what you just said?

If SF could form a government they would and should. It is not the fault of anyone else. Honestly.

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 8:22pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Indeed. They both know when it is time to jump ship from whatever party they are in for the time being.

Roisin's departure from Labour was well documented and if you bothered to do a little research you wouldn't have made such an ignorant comment.
Although I suppose if one has no principles it's confusing when presented with them in others.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 8:22pm

jos28 wrote: »

I am well aware of who Eamonn Ryan is, if you read my post again you might deduce that I suggested the GP use the SDs as a buffer.

And do you really really think that the SDs would fall for your cunning plan?

dxhound2005 · 13-02-2020 8:23pm

Fann Linn wrote: »

I never said there was a homeless problem.
There is a housing problem however.

It could be solved. We have many people from Dublin who bought properties in commuter land. Other people from Dublin would be no worse off, if they chose to swap a hotel room for a property away from Dublin. Funded by whatever process is keeping them in their current accommodation.

As a temporary solution of course, while their new house is being built in Dublin.

Brendan Bendar · 13-02-2020 8:23pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Indeed. They both know when it is time to jump ship from whatever party they are in for the time being.

As Patk Rabbitte once said, and I’ll misquote ‘ They know which side their parsnips are buttered on’

Most important item for them it is reported is the wedge with the Harp on it.

dark crystal · 13-02-2020 8:24pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There is not much left to fix now, with full employment and low emigration. Negative equity mostly gone, and low inflation. So they could do a bit on the housing by using the 200,000 empty properties, and struggle on with the HSE. Then near the election time give the pensioners a very big increase. That might put a big hole in the SF agenda, and get them back in again.

Ah, of course! That's their usual modus operandi alright. Deja Vú.

I'd think it's the younger voters they need on side going forward, not the ones already loyal. Housing, the number one issue faced by younger people going into this election, will define their success or failure imo.

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 8:26pm

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

As Patk Rabbitte once said, and I’ll misquote ‘ They know which side their parsnips are buttered on’

Most important item for them it is reported is the wedge with the Harp on it.

Noonan actually said 'that butters no parnips' . Pat Rabbitte is known for saying when confronted with broken electoral promises 'thats what you tend to do during an election" make promises.

Fann Linn · 13-02-2020 8:26pm

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It could be solved. We have many people from Dublin who bought properties in commuter land. Other people from Dublin would be no worse off, if they chose to swap a hotel room for a property away from Dublin. Funded by whatever process is keeping them in their current accommodation.

As a temporary solution of course, while their new house is being built in Dublin.

Back to square 1 so. Fg haven't solved it and have been in power for the last 9 years. Going back into govt again with FFwont make any difference?

Plumbthedepths · 13-02-2020 8:27pm

dark crystal wrote: »

Ah, of course! That's their usual modus operandi alright. Deja Vú.

I'd think it's the younger voters they need on side going forward, not the ones already loyal. Housing, the number one issue faced by younger people going into this election, will define their success or failure imo.

I heard a good analogy today 'once bought, stay bought'.

jos28 · 13-02-2020 8:28pm

Fann Linn wrote: »

And do you really really think that the SDs would fall for your cunning plan?

I was being somewhat facetious, apologies for not having my sarcasm monitor switched on. Of course I don't think the SDs are stupid, I actually voted for the SD candidate in my constituency.

dark crystal · 13-02-2020 8:29pm

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Sorry what?

Did you read what you just said?

If SF could form a government they would and should. It is not the fault of anyone else. Honestly.

Of course I read it, I'm not remedial. Nor are you, so why feign the confusion?

SF could indeed form a government, however FFG (two party system) refuse to engage with them. Get it now?

GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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