GE Exit Poll 10 pm

cameramonkey

dxhound2005 wrote: »

There is not much left to fix now, with full employment and low emigration. Negative equity mostly gone, and low inflation. So they could do a bit on the housing by using the 200,000 empty properties, and struggle on with the HSE. Then near the election time give the pensioners a very big increase. That might put a big hole in the SF agenda, and get them back in again.

They wont though. FG seem ideologically apposed to giving poor people free houses and want to get a rub on the belly from their vulture fund buddies, FF will be in the pockets of the developers, they cant help it that's the way they are are and the Greens are oblivious to anything other than climate change. Hoping for some radical change on housing policy myself but wont happen under those lads.

dxhound2005

Fann Linn wrote: »

Back to square 1 so. Fg haven't solved it and have been in power for the last 9 years. Going back into govt again with FFwont make any difference?

Not back to square one. Using some of the 200,000 empty properties, or buying some of the cheap properties away from Dublin. The people relocating will be in the same position as private buyers from Dublin who will be their neighbours.

And again only until their new houses in Dublin are built and ready for them to occupy.

Brendan Bendar

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Noonan actually said 'that butters no parnips' . Pat Rabbitte is known for saying when confronted with broken electoral promises 'thats what you tend to do during an election" make promises.

Incorrect



https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/labour-refocus-after-poll-showing-29161009.html

The Rape of Lucretia

Fann Linn wrote: »

Back to square 1 so. Fg haven't solved it and have been in power for the last 9 years. Going back into govt again with FFwont make any difference?

I think it will. Things might not be all people desire. Whether that is considered failure or success is only relative. The important thing is to have your best people at the helm - fundamentally, thats the question posed us at elections. Choose the best, and at least you can be comfortable that whatever eventuates, at least its the best of the possible outcomes. FF, FG, and I dont discount the Greens as just makeweights, will be a good combination I think. The nation is in safe hands. The risk of rejoining the north in an unstatisfactory union fades. Democracy is a dangerous game, but when it works, like this one, it is satisfying.

cameramonkey

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Bit premature to be calling the next gov. FF FG + Greens.

Big decision for the Greens to make here.
And FG could be signing the wipe out of the party again if things go pear shaped.

Will be fun to watch the squirming/positioning.

I am speculating like everyone but FF and FG seem dead set against SF so no
other option. Apart from being in a majority in government it is maybe the position would SF most desire, number one opposition party.

omega man

Sir Oxman wrote: »

FF/FG+ here we come.


SF will annihilate them in a few years if they play their cards right.

What if they get their act together and make strides in housing, health etc?
Thats a risk from SF. In a few years they might be less relevant.

dxhound2005

cameramonkey wrote: »

I am speculating like everyone but FF and FG seem dead set against SF so no
other option. Apart from being in a majority in government it is maybe the position would most desire, number one opposition party.

And with the mood in the country, if a FFG government completely solved the housing problem, and got the health system into good shape, SF would still increase their vote next time because The People Want Change.

Sir Oxman

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

How do you establish the scenario that people ‘voted for change’and that suddenly other people who voted for other parties voted also voted for change??

Well, we have to take FF's Michael & FG's Leo words for that and every single one of their TDs too.
I know, I know.
A bit of a stretch but there we are.

omega man

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Being saying for a while now, SF will be more than happy to occupy the position of largest opposition party. It will force FF/ FG and who whoever is gullible enough to join them to get the finger out and deliver for their employers.

You mean continue to shout from the sidelines? Sounds like the usual SF approach.

Sir Oxman

omega man wrote: »

What if they get their act together and make strides in housing, health etc?
Thats a risk from SF. In a few years they might be less relevant.

Well, I gave my opinion on that in a follow up post.


Believe me, I would hope they would and I would praise them and acknowledge that but I'm afraid I'm very pessimistic on that one.

Sir Oxman

dxhound2005 wrote: »

And with the mood in the country, if a FFG government completely solved the housing problem, and got the health system into good shape, SF would still increase their vote next time because The People Want Change.

Not here, I would reconsider my voting intentions.

efanton

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

How do you establish the scenario that people ‘voted for change’and that suddenly other people who voted for other parties voted also voted for change??

Can you square that circle for us.

To me anyway, a poor auld tosser, it’s very close and inconclusive.

You need to tell us how you arrive at your conclusions.

Can you recall any election in your lifetime where there has been a similar shift from the two party system we have had for decades.

Do you think people voted for SF out of sympathy, a bit of a joke, or could it be it was a demand for a radical change in the way politics are done in this country and the lack of government action on the issues that concern and affect them most.

I have absolutely no doubt that many who voted for SF were not voting for SF
because they are SF supporters or believe totally in SF policies. They voted SF because FF and FG simply did not address what the people of this country want addressing, namely housing, healthcare, insurance and childcare. SF were the only possible party that could have got the numbers of seats to make that a reality and they came within a hairs breadth of delivering that change. SF now know it is possible and they will not make any mistake in the next general election. FF and FG have abandoned a huge section of the electorate and because of that voters will vote for an alternative.

The issue is quite simple really and the FF and FG supporters on this forum bear this out. FF and FG are quite happy to continue on as is, without apology, without acknowledging they truly fecked up in recent governments, and without any drive to correct past mistake or change existing policies. They dont care about the effect their policies are having on the majority of the population. They have never been inclined to change policies even though they are not working because that would be a show of weakness or error and rather than admit they got it wrong their misplaced pride will force them to their own destruction.

Roll on the next general election, now that the electorate have seen how close SF got to breaking the two party cartel running this country it will only encourage even more to abandon FF and FG.

Sir Oxman

omega man wrote: »

You mean continue to shout from the sidelines? Sounds like the usual SF approach.

There has to be a strong opposition, it is very important.

dark crystal

omega man wrote: »

What if they get their act together and make strides in housing, health etc?
Thats a risk from SF. In a few years they might be less relevant.

They'd have to make pretty big strides imo. Housing was younger voters no.1 issue going into the election and it's most likely the biggest reason they voted for a change from the old guard.

As the old guard have decided to exclude the younger voters preferred party from government, let's hope they do a bang up job improving those voter's lot before the next election.

Galwayguy35

dark crystal wrote: »

Same old two party system abides so. Why bother voting at all?

A clear vote for change obviously means nothing to our FFG masters.

The majority of people voted for the centre right parties and we will get a centre right Government, I don't see the problem really.

If the houses get built and the health service improves what's the difference who gets it done.

We are already a welfare state if SF were in charge it would become a lot worse.

dark crystal

Galwayguy35 wrote: »

The majority of people voted for the centre right parties and we will get a centre right Government, I don't see the problem really.

The majority of people aged 18 to 65 voted for SF. If you don't see the problem, not much else I can say.

If the houses get built and the health service improves what's the difference who gets it done.

I genuinely hope they do get sorted, regardless of party. It's just both parties have had so long to sort them and...well...

We are already a welfare state if SF were in charge it would become a lot worse.

Guess we'll never know if that will come to pass, will we? For now, let's just say SF are untested in that regard and the other two are well tested.

Plumbthedepths

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Incorrect



https://www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk/news/republic-of-ireland/labour-refocus-after-poll-showing-29161009.html

Be specific please , I referenced what two politicians are attributed as saying, saying incorrect is somewhat bizarre tbh.

dxhound2005

dark crystal wrote: »

The majority of people aged 18 to 65 voted for SF. If you don't see the problem, not much else I can say.

It still only adds up to 25% of voters. Other parties have had much bigger gains in the past.

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Be specific please , I referenced what two politicians are attributed as saying, saying incorrect is somewhat bizarre tbh.

Noonan made his comment about butter no parsnips in relation to falling bond yields.

efanton

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Not back to square one. Using some of the 200,000 empty properties, or buying some of the cheap properties away from Dublin. The people relocating will be in the same position as private buyers from Dublin who will be their neighbours.

And again only until their new houses in Dublin are built and ready for them to occupy.

And this is exactly why they will fail.

Buying property is the worst possible way, of providing new social housing.
Its more expensive, it doesn't create jobs, and are you seriously trying to tell me there is 200,000 empty habitable homes available?

There's absolutely no way that its is possible to buy 100,000 homes in a five year period, and even it it was all they would be doing is driving the cost of those home upwards.

Building those homes on the other hand make much more sense. The government has sufficient land already to do so so straight away the cost of site is removed from the final cost.
As all materials to build a home are taxed, along with all labour those costs are also deductible from the final cost.

If there ever was a prime example of a government squandering taxpayers money, there it is. FG would sooner put money in to the pockets of property speculators than actually address the problem of housing in an meaningful and cost effective manner.


But it gets worse. Far Far worse.
Lets look at the proposed home build scheme of FG, to build 6000 homes every year for 5 years

FG allocated €750 million in 2018 to the Ireland Strategic Investment Fund for a new housing finance “vehicle” to be known as Home Building Finance Ireland (HBFI). out of that they expected 6000 homes to be built. They intend this scheme to run over multiple years.
Now think about that. What FG are trying to tell us is that they could get a private developer to build 6000 homes at a cost of €125,000 each on private land, at market rates. Total pie in the sky we would be told if SF came up with that plan.
https://www.irishtimes.com/news/environment/budget-2018-3-800-social-homes-to-be-built-next-year-1.3245541

But lets play along. If FG intended to spend €750 million a year for 5 years they would spend in total €3.75 BILLION and deliver a maximum of 30,000 homes
SF said that would increase that funding by 6.5 billion giving a total sum of €10.25 BILLION. Divide that by 100,000 homes that SF promised to deliver and that gives a final cost of €102,500 per home. Factor in that there was no cost for the site and remove taxes and the final cost per home is almost IDENTICAL to the costing that FG used.

Yet FG and their supporters jeer at SF proposal to build 100,000 homes with an ADDITIONAL €6.5 billion.

You just have to laugh, a serious belly ache laugh, at the stupidity of these FG supporters that will not actually sit down and do the numbers themselves before shooting their mouth off.

Not only are they prepared to squander billions buying up property in an ever diminishing market, but they criticise SF for using the very same figures they themselves use with regards to building new homes.

Loafing Oaf

dark crystal wrote: »

The majority of people aged 18 to 65 voted for SF.

You mean they were the party that the largest number of people in that age group voted for? Surely over 50% of people in the bracket didn't vote SF?

dxhound2005

There are enough empty houses to cater for 10,000 homeless. Enough to offer a choice of three to every one of the 10,000. If none suited their needs, they could remain in whatever accommodation they are in presently, until their new house in Dublin is built and ready for occupation.

As I said before this puts them in the same boat as private buyers from Dublin who have bought in different counties.

Professor Moriarty

dark crystal wrote: »

The majority of people aged 18 to 65 voted for SF. If you don't see the problem, not much else I can say.



I genuinely hope they do get sorted, regardless of party. It's just both parties have had so long to sort them and...well...



Guess we'll never know if that will come to pass, will we? For now, let's just say SF are untested in that regard and the other two are well tested.

Do you have a link for this?

Suckit

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do you have a link for this?

Not a link to that specifically, but a breakdown of the votes
https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-most-popular-party-age-groups-4998864-Feb2020/

Brendan Bendar

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Be specific please , I referenced what two politicians are attributed as saying, saying incorrect is somewhat bizarre tbh.

The link is the clue, dude.

Last paragraph...c’mon man.

listermint

SD Mets with FF and outcome is...


https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1228048335354941440?s=20

limnam

listermint wrote: »

SD Mets with FF and outcome is...


https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1228048335354941440?s=20

It was FF they met with. What exactly were they expecting?

Plumbthedepths

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

The link is the clue, dude.

The quote is also attributed to Noonan both in the Dail and the media. Rabitte's use is more obscure although his admitting to lying during an election is not. Anyway amusing distraction but...

Brendan Bendar

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The quote is also attributed to Noonan both in the Dail and the media. Rabitte's use is more obscure although his admitting to lying during an election is not. Anyway amusing distraction but...

Buddy, stop digging.

Soulsun

Off topic... what is the cost to the tax payer for holding another GE?