GE Exit Poll 10 pm

efanton

Soulsun wrote: »

Off topic... what is the cost to the tax payer for holding another GE?

FAR FAR cheaper than letting a FF lead government back in I would argue.

The Rape of Lucretia

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It still only adds up to 25% of voters. Other parties have had much bigger gains in the past.

And parties have fallen fast too. Labour went from 37(who got that number this time ?) in 2011 to 7 in 2016. There is a wandering vote that has an easy promiscuity with whatever is attractive in a given moment. But it moves on with equal ease, and as quickly. SF is a passing fancy for this element, while the adults in the room, the stable and rational voter, ensures stable government.

dxhound2005

Soulsun wrote: »

Off topic... what is the cost to the tax payer for holding another GE?

That is not much of a consideration. Otherwise they would have a much cheaper and fairer computer voting system.

dark crystal

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Do you have a link for this?

https://www.redcresearch.ie/general-election-2020-younger-voters-flock-to-sinn-fein/

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0209/1114117-exit-poll-analysis/

Both exit poll analysis. For some reason, actual age demographic voting data is proving rather elusive! Just to add, the exit poll analysis actually underestimated the SF vote...

I think however, anyone reading or watching the election coverage saw quite clearly how popular SF were with the younger demographic. On RTE, they showed the data and made quite strong reference to the fact SF were the most popular party for those under 65, which was surprising (especially the 45 to 65 age demographic.)

Surely this was common knowledge though?

Soulsun

efanton wrote: »

FAR FAR cheaper than letting a FF lead government back in I would argue.

Cracker

The Rape of Lucretia

Soulsun wrote: »

Off topic... what is the cost to the tax payer for holding another GE?

The cost would be incalculably destructive - it would be the very subversion of its democracy.

Professor Moriarty

dark crystal wrote: »

https://www.redcresearch.ie/general-election-2020-younger-voters-flock-to-sinn-fein/

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0209/1114117-exit-poll-analysis/

Both exit poll analysis. For some reason, actual age demographic voting data is proving rather elusive! Just to add, the exit poll analysis actually underestimated the SF vote...

I think however, anyone reading or watching the election coverage saw quite clearly how popular SF were with the younger demographic. On RTE, they showed the data and made quite strong reference to the fact SF were the most popular party for those under 65, which was surprising (especially the 45 to 65 age demographic.)

Surely this was common knowledge though?

Neither of those links demonstrate that a majority of voters aged 18-65 voted for Sinn Féin. You're mistaking 'majority' for most popular party.

dxhound2005

dark crystal wrote: »

Surely this was common knowledge though?

It was just your use of the word majority. I knew you didn't mean that more than 50% of voters in that age group voted SF. But it could be read that way.

Sir Oxman

listermint wrote: »

SD Mets with FF and outcome is...


https://twitter.com/SeanDefoe/status/1228048335354941440?s=20

Only Greens left...will they bend?:D

dark crystal

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Neither of those links demonstrate that a majority of voters aged 18-65 voted for Sinn Féin. You're mistaking 'majority' for most popular party.

Right, I think you know exactly what I meant though.

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It was just your use of the word majority. I knew you didn't mean that more than 50% of voters in that age group voted SF. But it could be read that way.

Thank you, the pedants are out in force tonight!

However you choose to read it, Sinn Féin were by far the most popular choice for younger voters and I think it is an awful mistake to discount them the way FFG are currently doing.

Bobeagleburger

Doesn't look like FF or FG wants to risk it with SF So it's FF, FG and Greens, or another election. .

The former option will be stable but they'll be get hammered next election.

The latter is a risk for FF and FG. Maybe even a risk for SF but they've less to lose.

Not sure another election solves much.

efanton

Professor Moriarty wrote: »

Neither of those links demonstrate that a majority of voters aged 18-65 voted for Sinn Féin. You're mistaking 'majority' for most popular party.

Seriously what is the difference unless you are wishing to rewrite history in some way.

FF and FG got their arses kicked, its done its over, and no bending of statistics is going to heal their bruises.
I would sooner hear FF and FG accepting that they have made mistakes and how they are going to address that, and their supporters actually applying pressure to ensure those changes get made before both parties implode.

Billcarson

dark crystal wrote: »

Right, I think you know exactly what I meant though.



Thank you, the pedants are out in force tonight!

However you choose to read it, Sinn Féin were by far the most popular choice for younger voters and I think it is an awful mistake to discount them the way FFG are currently doing.

FFG will discount them at their peril,hopefully in time it will be the younger people that will finish those ****ers off for good.

dxhound2005

6 wrote: »

Doesn't look like FF or FG wants to risk it with SF So it's FF, FG and Greens, or another election. .

The former option will be stable but they'll be get hammered next election.

The latter is a risk for FF and FG. Maybe even a risk for SF but they've less to lose.

Not sure another election solves much.

Predicting the outcome of the next election just now is fraught with danger. Other parties have had surges and then went backwards. That could happen to SF.

dark crystal

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Only Greens left...will they bend?:D

Why not? It went so well for them last time they got into bed with FF after all...:pac:

FrancieBrady

Sir Oxman wrote: »

Only Greens left...will they bend?:D

Moths to a flame.
Thing is, they will cost us money and grief over the term of government and there will be no discernible improvement to point to.
The electorate once again will show them no mercy.

Bobeagleburger

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Predicting the outcome of the next election just now is fraught with danger. Other parties have had surges and then went backwards. That could happen to SF.

Absolutely. I don't think they'd fall backwards too much and could well gain a few. Fianna Fail would be taking the biggest risk with another election imo. Lose more seats and Martin would probably have to resign.

Plumbthedepths

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Predicting the outcome of the next election just now is fraught with danger. Other parties have had surges and then went backwards. That could happen to SF.

The most recent surges were FG and Labour both in 2011, after the shambles FF left the state in. Labour has suffered disproportionately in relation to FG's losses since 2011. I suspect Labour will either merge with the Soc Dems or cease to exist after another election cycle or two. The stranglehold of the other two appears to be broken and they have lost the trust of a significant amount of the under 50's. It appears it was only the over 65's that halted the decimation of FG/FF.
As for SF I suspect they are above where they should be but a few years as the lead opposition party who knows, even that position will give them legitimacy that they wouldn't ordinarily enjoy.
We are not yet ready for a leftist government but several European countries have and have had leftist governments without imploding.
Just my opinion

dxhound2005

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Moths to a flame.
Thing is, they will cost us money and grief over the term of government and there will be no discernible improvement to point to.
The electorate once again will show them no mercy.

If we get some almighty hurricanes, floods, droughts and fires it could work out in their favour.

Bobeagleburger

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The most recent surges were FG and Labour both in 2011, after the shambles FF left the state in. Labour has suffered disproportionately in relation to FG's losses since 2011. I suspect Labour will either merge with the Soc Dems or cease to exist after another election cycle or two. The stranglehold of the other two appears to be broken and they have lost the trust of a significant amount of the under 50's. It appears it was only the over 65's that halted the decimation of FG/FF.
As for SF I suspect they are above where they should be but a few years as the lead opposition party who knows, even that position will give them legitimacy that they wouldn't ordinarily enjoy.
We are not yet ready for a leftist government but several European countries have and have had leftist governments without imploding.
Just my opinion

Funny, I think Labour are the best placed to capture SFs vote when the time comes. What they'll need is SF in government though, and to perform badly while there.

FrancieBrady

dxhound2005 wrote: »

If we get some almighty hurricanes, floods, droughts and fires it could work out in their favour.

Not getting them is what we'll be paying for.

Plumbthedepths

6 wrote: »

Funny, I think Labour are the best placed to capture SFs vote when the time comes. What they'll need is SF in government though, and to perform badly while there.

Nothing of what I have seen in the last 9 years allows me to agree with you. Labour are toxic and even more so if Alan Kelly secures the leadership. Soc Dems is their future that's if they want one.

UDAWINNER

So it looks like FFG will go in to govt, absolute disgrace even worse if they do a C and S BS. I hope the people that vote for all other parties do not even give them transfers in the next election and hence maximise their losses. I could not understand anyone on the left give these fcukers a no.10 vote. Sad day for Ireland when these wasters are on the cusp of power.:(

dxhound2005

UDAWINNER wrote: »

So it looks like FFG will go in to govt, absolute disgrace even worse if they do a C and S BS. I hope the people that vote for all other parties do not even give them transfers in the next election and hence maximise their losses. I could not understand anyone on the left give these fcukers a no.10 vote. Sad day for Ireland when these wasters are on the cusp of power.:(

That's democracy for you.

listermint

6 wrote: »

Funny, I think Labour are the best placed to capture SFs vote when the time comes. What they'll need is SF in government though, and to perform badly while there.

Labour ?



Labour are dead. Literally dead in the water. Rabbitte ruined that party.

Jinglejangle69

UDAWINNER wrote: »

So it looks like FFG will go in to govt, absolute disgrace even worse if they do a C and S BS. I hope the people that vote for all other parties do not even give them transfers in the next election and hence maximise their losses. I could not understand anyone on the left give these fcukers a no.10 vote. Sad day for Ireland when these wasters are on the cusp of power.:(

Whats the other options?

And by the way they won't be forming a government.

easypazz

listermint wrote: »

Labour ?



Labour are dead. Literally dead in the water. Rabbitte ruined that party.

The greens were dead too.

And FF.

This is like living in a small town with 5 pubs. For a while everybody only goes to 1 or 2 pubs, then the crowd move somewhere else for a while, and then back to the first pub again.

easypazz

UDAWINNER wrote: »

So it looks like FFG will go in to govt, absolute disgrace even worse if they do a C and S BS. I hope the people that vote for all other parties do not even give them transfers in the next election and hence maximise their losses. I could not understand anyone on the left give these fcukers a no.10 vote. Sad day for Ireland when these wasters are on the cusp of power.:(

Up the Ra, comrade.

UDAWINNER

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Whats the other options?

And by the way they won't be forming a government.

ff and fg will go in together otherwise given their stated positions regarding sf, it will be another general election.

Urethral Buttercup

Wonder how many of the FF/FG voters are just looking to have their assets protected and don't give a crap about people struggling in the rent market with no security.