GE Exit Poll 10 pm

UDAWINNER

Fred Cryton wrote: »

SF are an unholy alliance of provo sympathisers, welfare heads from inner Dublin and now young millennials completely brainwashed by their propaganda machine into thinking they'd get a free gaf.

lay off the drugs and the drink, now head to bed. Let me guess, you voted FFG, because your parents told you to.

Suckit

Fred Cryton wrote: »

SF are an unholy alliance of provo sympathisers, welfare heads from inner Dublin and now young millennials completely brainwashed by their propaganda machine into thinking they'd get a free gaf.

https://www.thejournal.ie/sinn-fein-most-popular-party-age-groups-4998864-Feb2020/

efanton

average_runner wrote: »

Has to be vote down south also.
To get a united Ireland we would need our debt to the EU written off and a big handout from the uk.
Massive Grant's for infrastructure also

No not at all.

Do the numbers yourself and prove to yourself it isn't possible. You would actually find out not only is it possible but it would not cost anywhere close to what scaremongers are saying and actually cost us very little indeed.

When you eliminate the costs that the UK currently have that would not be relevant in a Untied Ireland the British subvention of 9.5 billion ( that is the current subvention it is not the 12 billion touted by some) would drop to just above 5 billion.

Those costs include
* the running and maintenance of the Stormont building and Stormont Executive £430 million

* Northern Ireland’s share of the UK’s defence budget, the Foreign and Commonwealth Office, and similar items is around €1.5bn.

* Consumption of fixed capital 2 billion
To put that into plain language this is accountant speak for depreciation on government property and assets.

Already we are down to just over 5 Billion.

But then you have to factor in other thing like Stormont executive does not collect a single penny in taxation. Every single penny of taxation goes straight to Westminster. There's 2 or 3 billion right there. Unfortunately I could never get hold of accurate figure for that, but considering the Republic of Ireland collected 17.5 Billion in VAT return last year 2 or 3 billion would be a extremely conservative estimate. Its likely to be much higher than that.
We havent even account for income tax but again no accurate figure can be got.

Then the icing on the cake. The 9.5 billion subvention that the British government gives to Stormont each year includes 6 Billion for pension payments.
Now how thats going to work in a United Ireland is unclear because the British government currently holds the pension reserves for those pension.
It could either be that the British government continues to pay those pensions in which case that 6 billion a year can be subtracted as a cost or those pension reserves would be transferred to the Irish government. Currently that fund is in significant surplus, so again the cost of existing pension can be subtracted.

Obviously there are going to be significant additional costs with regard to a United Ireland, amalgamation of all nation services, government, road signage, currency etc etc

BUT the truth is if the Irish people (both North and South) wanted a United Ireland tomorrow morning we could easily afford it, in fact it comes out to costing us as a nation on a yearly basis close to nothing. The big costs would be the actual transition but I cant see the UK not contributing to that, nor could I see the EU not ensuring there was not sufficient funds if they were necessary just for transitional measures.

The numbers are all there if you don't believe me. Everything number I have posted is publicly available. The simple truth is the scaremongering about the cost of a United Ireland is simply that scaremongering.

It took me a lot of time and effort to go through that process of gathering all those figure a couple of months back. I myself was shocked at how little it would cost us in the event of a United Ireland. The truth is if we want a United Ireland it more or less pays for itself.

Idbatterim

To hell with a United ireland, we have way bigger issues now and that is potentially decades off. The unionists could blow up a bag of crisps down here and that’s all it would take to derail it. Ludicrous !

efanton

Idbatterim wrote: »

To hell with a United ireland, we have way bigger issues now and that is potentially decades off. The unionists could blow up a bag of crisps down here and that’s all it would take to derail it. Ludicrous !

Why would it be ludicrous. A united Ireland could only happen if the Unionist actually wanted it. So if they wanted it why would they try to derail it.

Surely you have a better argument than that.

charlie14

Idbatterim wrote: »

To hell with a United ireland, we have way bigger issues now and that is potentially decades off. The unionists could blow up a bag of crisps down here and that’s all it would take to derail it. Ludicrous !

You were hoping over and back between SF and FG up to a few days before the election.
From reading the above it sounds as if you are perhaps still ensure even after, as you have said, opting for SF
I have always been of the opinion that SF`s primary political aim was, and still is, a United Ireland.

Loafing Oaf

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Still spouting shyte?

That's his single transferable post. I reckon he's Lucinda's cousin who can't even spell his own name...

Idbatterim

charlie14 wrote: »

You were hoping over and back between SF and FG up to a few days before the election.
From reading the above it sounds as if you are perhaps still ensure even after, as you have said, opting for SF
I have always been of the opinion that SF`s primary political aim was, and still is, a United Ireland.

Yeah I got into the polling booth and I couldn’t bring myself to vote fg again. Whether sf bring about change or hopefully force ffg to do it. It’s win / win. However , I think it’s totally unacceptable that is things now change , just because ffg got a kicking, well then what’s their excuse for all the damage they have done over the last few decades ? “ oh sorry, we didn’t need to be arsed, we had a duopoly?”

Bobeagleburger

A united Ireland is a good 20 years ago imo, maybe even more. It'll happen eventually but probably needs a few stars to align.

efanton

charlie14 wrote: »

You were hoping over and back between SF and FG up to a few days before the election.
From reading the above it sounds as if you are perhaps still ensure even after, as you have said, opting for SF
I have always been of the opinion that SF`s primary political aim was, and still is, a United Ireland.

It certainly is, and I'm all for a United Ireland myself as long as those in the North want it and it can be afforded.

As I have shown above the cost is not an issue.

Will there ever be a time when the majority in the North want a United Ireland I believe it to be the case. It will not happen in the next 5 years of that we can be certain, but it probably will happen in the next 2 or 3 decades.

The problem is in the republic there hasnt really been much thought put into it at a government level. Personally I think this is a huge mistake, no matter what the current government view point on a United Ireland is. If its virtually inevitable surely some basic planning or feasibility study should be put in place.

Even if to were just to access what would be required to be done to amalgamate service, road signs currency, education etc, etc. We as a nation should be able to say with reasonable clarity how much that would cost, and how long it would take. Something properly planned for is usually far far cheaper than something that is not. Just look at the Children's Hospital for an example of that.

Blaze420

efanton wrote: »

Why would it be ludicrous. A united Ireland could only happen if the Unionist actually wanted it. So if they wanted it why would they try to derail it.

Surely you have a better argument than that.

Economy is the main one, we simply can’t afford another 6 counties on our current budget

efanton

Blaze420 wrote: »

Economy is the main one, we simply can’t afford another 6 counties on our current budget

Obviously you didn't read my post above where I showed how that British subvention was made up.

The numbers, verifiable numbers if you cared to check for yourself, prove otherwise.

The argument that we cant afford it is a red herring put out there by people that either have no interest in a United Ireland or are looking after their own political arse. I dont like what the Unionist stand for or they way they behave, but I'm certain the nonsense we have to put up with in the Dail would not be tolerated by them. If 1.8 million people from the North were added to our population, 60% of whom would have a vote do you honestly thing we would still have a two party system. The biggest reason why most politician here in the republic reject the idea of a United Ireland has more to do with protecting themselves than what would be better for the country as a whole.

charlie14

efanton wrote: »

It certainly is, and I'm all for a United Ireland myself as long as those in the North want it and it can be afforded.

As I have shown above the cost is not an issue.

Will there ever be a time when the majority in the North want a United Ireland I believe it to be the case. It will not happen in the next 5 years of that we can be certain, but it probably will happen in the next 2 or 3 decades.

The problem is in the republic there hasnt really been much thought put into it at a government level. Personally I think this is a huge mistake, no matter what the current government view point on a United Ireland is. If its virtually inevitable surely some basic planning or feasibility study should be put in place.

Even if to were just to access what would be required to be done to amalgamate service, road signs currency, education etc, etc. We as a nation should be able to say with reasonable clarity how much that would cost, and how long it would take. Something properly planned for is usually far far cheaper than something that is not. Just look at the Children's Hospital for an example of that.

The main driver for a United Ireland in the north will end up having little to do with political affiliations, it will come down to where they will be better off.
If Brexit is a disaster for Britain they will opt for a UI. A success for Britain and I could see them opting otherwise.
Personally I`m in favour, but get involved in a casual discussion with any group here on the subject and very quickly the eyes of the vast majority glaze over and the topic is changed pronto.
The vast majority here I believe will pay it lip service. Convincing them to vote for it could be a whole different matter.

amadangomor

efanton wrote: »

Obviously you didn't read my post above where I showed how that British subvention was made up.

The numbers, verifiable numbers if you cared to check for yourself, prove otherwise.

The argument that we cant afford it is a red herring put out there by people that either have no interest in a United Ireland or are looking after their own political arse. I dont like what the Unionist stand for or they way they behave, but I'm certain the nonsense we have to put up with in the Dail would not be tolerated by them. If 1.8 million people from the North were added to our population, 60% of whom would have a vote do you honestly thing we would still have a two party system. The biggest reason why most politician here in the republic reject the idea of a United Ireland has more to do with protecting themselves than what would be better for the country as a whole.

The likes of you with your non acceptance of unionism as a legitimate viewpoint are the biggest obstacle to a united Ireland.

efanton

amadangomor wrote: »

The likes of you with your non acceptance of unionism as a legitimate viewpoint are the biggest obstacle to a united Ireland.

Where did you get that idea.

If there was a United Ireland I would have absolutely no problem with an Orange Parade down O'Connell Street

There would only be a United Ireland if both communities accepted each others traditions and I am quite happy with that.

Bobeagleburger

Northern Ireland has a massive public sector. 220,000 or so. Afaik, we have 300,000 or so in the south.

To say we can't afford the north is hardly a radical statement. We are just threading water ourselves and are incredibly exposed when the next recession hits.

Idbatterim

Great to see the really important things have already been sorted


https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/parachute-payments-of-2m-for-tds-and-senators-who-lost-seats-1.4171882?mode=amp

Lewis_Benson

6 wrote: »

A united Ireland is a good 20 years ago imo, maybe even more. It'll happen eventually but probably needs a few stars to align.

It wont happen...

1. We cant afford Northern Ireland
2. That ship sailed a very long time ago.

McMurphy

Haven't read through the last pages since about 2200 last night, but according to Newstalk - Heather Humphreys saying don't be surprised if there's another election.

Lewis_Benson

6 wrote: »

A united Ireland is a good 20 years ago imo, maybe even more. It'll happen eventually but probably needs a few stars to align.

It wont happen...

1. We cant afford Northern Ireland
2. That ship sailed a very long time ago.

Pintman Paddy Losty

McMurphy wrote: »

Haven't read through the last pages since about 2200 last night, but according to Newstalk - Heather Humphreys saying don't be surprised if there's another election.

That's bad news for the shinners. I really think the UP the RA stuff will damage them. I've also heard this time it will be held mid week close to college exams so lots of the spotty faced socialists won't be able to get home.

I very much feel this will be like Lisbon treaty vote. People have had their protest and will now go back to normality.

Yurt2

McMurphy wrote: »

Haven't read through the last pages since about 2200 last night, but according to Newstalk - Heather Humphreys saying don't be surprised if there's another election.

The historical 'big two' are going to have another very very rough day. And they deserve it.

Whatever about their red lines about SF, they both held to that and are entitled to hold to it given their pre-election stances. But their refusal to countenance a coalition with each other should lead to them being pummeled further.

The TDs in those parties looking forward to kicking up their heels in opposition will have to entertain the idea they'll be issued with p45s soon. I don't know how you could possibly sell yourself to the electorate bar the hardcore vote if another election comes to pass.

fiona_b

Used to live in Ulster: great memories!

Damien360

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

That's bad news for the shinners. I really think the UP the RA stuff will damage them. I've also heard this time it will be held mid week close to college exams so lots of the spotty faced socialists won't be able to get home.

I very much feel this will be like Lisbon treaty vote. People have had their protest and will now go back to normality.

I don’t think the up the Ra stuff hurt them at all. The narrative very quickly was about his right to say whatever and sure does it matter.

SF will get stronger if FF/FG do a shared coalition. Basically they didn’t listen to the voters. A snap election may benefit FF and FG but only for this one. Housing is the poison chalice that will damage whatever government, including SF, that touches it.

McMurphy

Pintman Paddy Losty wrote: »

That's bad news for the shinners. I really think the UP the RA stuff will damage them. I've also heard this time it will be held mid week close to college exams so lots of the spotty faced socialists won't be able to get home.

I very much feel this will be like Lisbon treaty vote. People have had their protest and will now go back to normality.

Paddy, l hate to be the one to break this to you, but in all honesty I don't even read the scutter you post anymore.


Suffice to say the above which I've quoted more than likely is something along the lines of how Sinn Fein will not win anymore seats, communism or the Provos, and repeating your new found allegiance to FF.

Am I right?

Damien360

Just thinking the sudden United Ireland talk that was not present during or in the run up to the elections may do more damage to SF. Not voters priority at all but they are posting this as high up the list.

McMurphy

Yurt! wrote: »

The historical 'big two' are going to have another very very rough day. And they deserve it.

Whatever about their red lines about SF, they both held to that and are entitled to hold to it given their pre-election stances. But their refusal to countenance a coalition with each other should lead to them being pummeled further.

The TDs in those parties looking forward to kicking up their heels in opposition will have to entertain the idea they'll be issued with p45s soon. I don't know how you could possibly sell yourself to the electorate bar the hardcore vote if another election comes to pass.

Fergus O'Dowd last night said he was told in no uncertain terms at the doors how people wanted a change.

What does Fergus think will await him now when he has to go back to them same doors and people ask him why the change they asked for didn't happen because FG and FF refused to talk to the other party that won the popular vote?

One of the two local FF lads here lost his seat, I look forward to Lawless and Durkin (I was gutted he got back in, but respect his mandate) knocking on my door in the next short while if it happens again.

FF/FG really in self destruct more ATM.

Eoin O Brion making a right fool of himself on newstalk this morning. Talking absolute rubbish, basically lying, unable to address questions. Sums up SF really. Some of the stuff he came out with was absolutely comical.

Plumbthedepths

McMurphy wrote: »

Fergus O'Dowd last night said he was told in no uncertain terms at the doors how people wanted a change.

What does Fergus think will await him now when he has to go back to them same doors and people ask him why the change they asked for didn't happen because FG and FF refused to talk to the other party that won the popular vote?

One of the two local FF lads here lost his seat, I look forward to Lawless and Durkin (I was gutted he got back in, but respect his mandate) knocking on my door in the next short while if it happens again.

FF/FG really in self destruct more ATM.

There won't be another GE , many of the present FF/FG TD's scrapped in by the skin of their teeth they ain't going to risk the ire of the public if they are seen to be acting like irresponsible gob****es.

LeinsterDub

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

There won't be another GE , many of the present FF/FG TD's scrapped in by the skin of their teeth they ain't going to risk the ire of the public if they are seen to be acting like irresponsible gob****es.

Where will they find the 10 plus votes they need if the Greens say no?