GE Exit Poll 10 pm

limnam

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

Credit where its due though. FF and FG have decades of record of delivery a superb educational system.

Hard to know if your taking the p|ss or not

no.8

CBear1993 wrote:

But to those who are below 40 voting them in, Open your eyes. Or continue to live at home hearing the old pair riding each other every night. Brainless.

Good man. So we should tax the s**t out of everybody who has worked very hard to get where they are, and simply turn us an even greater benefits nation. The policies SF are proposing are absolute and utter BS. Most of us want change but its change with a dose of reality thats whats needed.

UDAWINNER

nuac wrote: »

Mountbatten and his companions including two teenage boys were murdered at Mullaghmore, Where was this _war" ?

Mountbatten was a Legitimate target and the other two were sadly as the americans and brits say collateral damage

namloc1980

namloc1980 wrote: »

They'll at least double their seat numbers!

oh look, it would be a great result for them

if they hadnt been here and everywhere else telling us about the govt theyre gonna form

retalivity

thequarefellow wrote: »

Noonan was a disgusting piece of work. Mouthing off now that Pascal Donoghue should take over FG. He really has it in for that party.

I normally dont condone abuse but noonan is one evil prick that i will be happy to never hear off again til the day he dies. At which point i will have a large whiskey.

Calhoun

History Queen wrote: »

We really haven't.... under funded across all levels, new "initiatives" forced through, absenteeism issues with students, teacher retention problems, low staff moral and ongoing concerns about the watering down of standards..... we're a whistleblower away from a nationally recognised crises in the education sector

Also God forbid you have a child with special needs, most parents have to fight for their children to get the level of service they are legally required to have. That's just primary, in allot of cases there is very little provision in 2nd level education.

meeeeh

thequarefellow wrote: »

Two big problems in one there. I would never vote FF as long as the guy who propped up Bertie is at the helm. I know it's just optics but still. Try to at least pretend you have changed.

I worded my point badly or even nonsensically. MM is relatively likeable, he seems to be warm enough and approachable. I don't think FF have anyone prominent enough without dubious past that could replace him. The problem is they have nobody to put there to even pretend.

efanton

THe question has been asked Could Sinn Fein actually run a country?
That's a matter of personal opinion, and could be argued for or against.

What is now almost without doubt is Sinn Fein will be deciding who actually does get to run the country, unless FF and FG eat humble pie and do what they said neither would do and that is to form a FF/FG coalition or FF go for a rainbow coaliition of all except FG ad SF.

From the exit pole it appears that the SF vote will still be strong despite them historically never delivering on their supported number in opinion polls. Exit polls results are a far better indicator and with this general election exit poll stating that FF, FG and SF more or less neck and neck its going to be a roller coaster of a ride.

It perfectly feasible now that SF will hit that magic number of 30 seats, and possibly slightly higher. It still is unlikely to be enough for them to form a government, unless FF and FG refuse to form a coalition and opt for the opposition benches.

If SF do as well as seems to be predicted then the transfers that FF would be depending on are likely to go to other parties that are left of centre. This makes a FF lead rainbow coalition highly unlikely. This is going to be a very interesting week or two.

It looks like FF in order to keep SF out of the picture will have to opt for a FF/FG coalition or go begging to every single party and independent excluding FG and SF to form a rainbow coalition. The rainbow government is likely to be a very shaky proposition, and likely to lead to another general election within a year or two. That would obviously play into SF hands in a subsequent GE. The unspeakable option is a FF/SF coalition but are FF that desperate for power that they will consider any option to get into government.

So what do you think is going through Micheal Martins mind at the moment?
Is this the nightmare that he hoped would never happen?

JohnnyFlash

markodaly wrote: »

True, but if like last time they dont even field a team on the pitch to form a government, they will be punished for it.

This puts huge pressure on FF though to do a u-turn, in relation to SF.

FF will have approximately 50 seats tomorrow and SF will have in or around 29. That’s almost a coalition. Needs the support of the Greens or a few independents to knock it over the line. The onus will be on them to form the next government. It will need to happen quickly and decisively.

Martin will either have to backtrack on his promise not to go into coalition with SF, or do what Trevor Sargent did and stand down on principle and let his party go into power.

12/1 is great value if you’re mad enough to bet on politics. I landed a 22/1 winner in Leopardstown last Sunday so never let odds overrule instinct.

thequarefellow

no.8 wrote: »

Good man. So we should tax the s**t out of everybody who has worked very hard to get where they are, and simply turn us an even greater benefits nation. The policies SF are proposing are absolute and utter BS. Most of us want change but its change with a dose of reality thats whats needed.

Problem is: most peoples idea of change is back and forth from FF to FG every few years.

RandomViewer

ThewhiteJesus wrote: »

I do, once an adult reaches 30 ish they realise there is no substance to Sinn Fein, just bs

FF Sat on their holes while FG stumbled or created one disaster after another, their failure to pull the plug for so long left people with little choice than vote for a change. SF are the closest thing to FF without being FF.

meeeeh

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

FF will have approximately 50 seats tomorrow and SF will have in or around 29. That’s almost a coalition. Needs the support of the Greens or a few independents to knock it over the line. The onus will be on them to form the next government. It will need to happen quickly and decisively.

Martin will either have to backtrack on his promise not to go into coalition with SF, or do what Trevor Sargent did and stand down on principle and let his party go into power.

12/1 is great value if you’re mad enough to bet on politics. I landed a 22/1 winner in Leopardstown last Sunday so never let odds overrule instinct.

Why would SF go into power as a junior party if they could wait for next election, field more candidates and hope to be the biggest party.

Sir Oxman

https://twitter.com/Prork/status/1226266852260818945?s=20

RandomViewer

thequarefellow wrote: »

Problem is: most peoples idea of change is back and forth from FF to FG every few years.

Confidence and supply was a FF/FG coalition, people saw through this.

thequarefellow

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

FF will have approximately 50 seats tomorrow and SF will have in or around 29. That’s almost a coalition. Needs the support of the Greens or a few independents to knock it over the line. The onus will be on them to form the next government. It will need to happen quickly and decisively.

Martin will either have to backtrack on his promise not to go into coalition with SF, or do what Trevor Sargent did and stand down on principle and let his party go into power.

12/1 is great value if you’re mad enough to bet on politics. I landed a 22/1 winner in Leopardstown last Sunday so never let odds overrule instinct.

He's hung on this long so you cab count that option out. He is so desperate to be Taoiseach that he will do anything to get there. That includes talking to SF.
This is Fianna Fail we are talking about after all.

Sligo/Leitrim exit poll for 1st and 2nd preference votes.

The Rape of Lucretia

efanton wrote: »

What is now almost without doubt is Sinn Fein will be deciding who actually does get to run the country, unless FF and FG eat humble pie and do what they said neither would do and that is to form a FF/FG coalition or FF go for a rainbow coaliition of all except FG ad SF.

Those are big IFFs though. So it really isnt even almost without doubt really, is it ?

History Queen

Calhoun wrote: »

Also God forbid you have a child with special needs, most parents have to fight for their children to get the level of service they are legally required to have. That's just primary, in allot of cases there is very little provision in 2nd level education.

Absolutely. And the government answer to provision problems? Introducing the new national admissions policy, which means all schools must accept all applicants (where space allows) .... sounds great until a child with specific needs is granted a place in a school wholly inadequate for their needs .... as bitter experience tells me the department won't resource all schools to meet the specialised/individual needs of every child

storker

efanton wrote: »

It looks like FF in order to keep SF out of the picture will have to opt for a FF/FG coalition or go begging to every single party and independent excluding FG and SF to form a rainbow coalition. The rainbow government is likely to be a very shaky proposition, and likely to lead to another general election within a year or two. That would obviously play into SF hands in a subsequent GE. The unspeakable option is a FF/SF coalition but are FF that desperate for power that they will consider any option to get into government.
?

I suspect that what we'll actually see is "Confidence and Supply #2", but with the roles reversed. Gotta keep the old game alive...

Nobody here is paying attention to the commotion in Germany that has been playing out at the moment about an Establishment party passively accepting the support of the AFD to gain control of a regional government.
If you are a member of the establishment you do not take the support of parties which are unacceptable to the mainstream.

JohnnyFlash

meeeeh wrote: »

Why would SF go into power as a junior party if they could wait for next election, field more candidates and hope to be the biggest party.

For the good of the country. This isn’t Man U vs Liverpool. It’s the branch of the State tasked with implementing policies and laws that our civil service and judiciary are tasked with upholding.

The people have voted in large numbers for SF with the expectation that their vote will influence how the country is run. It’s a central tenet of democracy.

Come Monday it will be beholden on FF, SF, and the Greens to form a coalition. We genuinely don’t have time for party politics.

RandomViewer

Fred Cryton wrote: »

Ever hear of the bus or train?

Bars and restaurant opening times don't align with bus timetables and people on minimum wage can't afford taxies

The Rape of Lucretia

thequarefellow wrote: »

Problem is: most peoples idea of change is back and forth from FF to FG every few years.

Thats a good thing. It allows them to indulge the more simple voter that he is voting for change, the more sophisticated voter who doesnt want change to switch his vote knowing that they are effectively the same thing. It suits Irelands political choice handsomely.

Loafing Oaf

Kermit.de.frog wrote: »

Will Varadkar open up talks with SF?

No.

Key question now is whether FF end up the largest party. These guys seem pretty sure they will but I'm not enough of a psephologist to judge.
https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0208/1114068-exit-poll-analysis/
https://news.sky.com/story/irish-general-election-astounding-exit-poll-predicts-three-way-tie-11929708
If they are then the scenario will play out as I outlined in another thread:

Martin's first choice is a 'soft left' coalition with Labour, Greens etc. If the numbers are not there for that there's a 'confidence and supply' offer from FG on the table. Can't envisage the circumstances where he would be going anywhere near SF

Fann Linn

Suit me right now if FF/FG just carried on with their coalition. Another 4/5 years would be the end of them.

Tony EH

storker wrote: »

I suspect that what we'll actually see is "Confidence and Supply #2", but with the roles reversed. Gotta keep the old game alive...

That's my take on things too. Can't realistically see any actual changes going on.

Bu a surge in Shinner support will certainly have a "kick up the arse" effect on the usual bozos.

The Rape of Lucretia

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

For the good of the country. This isn’t Man U vs Liverpool. It’s the branch of the State tasked with implementing policies and laws that our civil service and judiciary are tasked with upholding.

The people have voted in large numbers for SF with the expectation that their vote will influence how the country is run. It’s a central tenet of democracy.

Come Monday it will be beholden on FF, SF, and the Greens to form a coalition. We genuinely don’t have time for party politics.

Why do you say that ? If the argument that the onus is on the parties most voted for to form a coalition, then surely it must be a SF/FF/FG one ? No ?

RandomViewer

storker wrote: »

I suspect that what we'll actually see is "Confidence and Supply #2", but with the roles reversed. Gotta keep the old game alive...

Don't think Varadker would accept being MM's bitch, FG arrogance is a strange beast

Sir Oxman

storker wrote: »

I suspect that what we'll actually see is "Confidence and Supply #2", but with the roles reversed. Gotta keep the old game alive...

I can't see FG doing that looking at FF dropping support and probably seats.

rdwight

rdwight wrote: »

I find it ironic that SF support should be so strong in areas with a lot of social housing. Given the state of the property market, people in council houses have effectively won the lottery.

every happy one produces four more grabby ones within a generation tho

sustainable it ain't