GE Exit Poll 10 pm

ted1

McMurphy wrote: »

You're counting the CC seat that they automatically retain, as opposed to having won it - yeah?

They both won 37 seats though.

FF have more seats.. that’s the bottom line.

UDAWINNER

maccored wrote: »

Just a simple idea - but wasn't it the voters in the north who stopped voting for the sdlp? It wasn't 'bullying and intimidation'. More of this dramatic bull****

Don't forget that FFG and Labour did everything to ensure that Nationlists voted for the SDLP, even campaigning for Brid Rogers,etc when in reality they couldn't give a flying fcuk about northerners which is evident in the lack of real sympathy for Paul Quinn, quickly forgotten now that the election is over and the fake outrage at singing a song ffs.

McMurphy

ted1 wrote: »

FF have more seats.. that’s the bottom line.

Yeah one more that was always there, but if you need to use a seat they automatically retained to wave around in a micky swinging competition, tear away chief.

It's akin to shouting my dad has more spanners than your dad in the schoolyard.

ted1

McMurphy wrote: »

Yeah one more that was always there, but if you need to use a seat they automatically retained to wave around in a micky swinging competition, tear away chief.

It's akin to shouting my dad has more spanners than your dad in the schoolyard.

Forming a government is a mickey swinging competition, whoever has the most spammers win, even if you need to borrow spanner’s from a like minded Dad.

efanton

ted1 wrote: »

The numbers don’t reflect such a surge,

FF have more seats
FG are only a few behind

24.5% V 22.2% v 20.9%

It’s not to different, from the way SF are talking you’d think they had 80%

Are you mathematically challenged?

SF had 23 seats. Now they have 37 seats. They increased their seats in one single election by over 50%.
50% is a massive surge and there is no other word for it.

Whats worse is after such a poor FG government FF should have surged too, especially as they were the supposed party in waiting.

The Rape of Lucretia

The Greens increase their seats in one election by 500%. Thats HUGE !!!
FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT INCREASE.
Leaves SF getting all excited about themselves in the shade. Boom. In ya face SFers, and your puny 50%. Sorry, 'over' 50%.
Greens deserve to govern on their own I think. The people have clearly sent a message. Ireland has swung emphatically towards Green politics, and rejected the other 93%. Voted for Greens in a bigger increase than any other party.

ted1

efanton wrote: »

Are you mathematically challenged?

SF had 23 seats. Now they have 37 seats. They increased their seats in one single election by over 50%.
50% is a massive surge and there is no other word for it.

Whats worse is after such a poor FG government FF should have surged too, especially as they were the supposed party in waiting.

In 2016 they got 14% of 1st preferences in 2020 they got 24%. Simple as that.

Using 2016 as a base implies only 10% of the electrac voted SF for change


And they still achieved less than 1/4. That’s not a mandate to govern. FF and FG have close on to 50%. That’s a mandate. And for the past few years SF have said they are the same FFG so you can’t separate them now.

listermint

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The Greens increase their seats in one election by 500%. Thats HUGE !!!
FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT INCREASE.
Leaves SF getting all excited about themselves in the shade. Boom. In ya face SFers, and your puny 50%. Sorry, 'over' 50%.
Greens deserve to govern on their own I think. The people have clearly sent a message. Ireland has swung emphatically towards Green politics, and rejected the other 93%. Voted for Greens in a bigger increase than any other party.

Count the voters. Ignore the percentages.

That's what a smart person would do......

ted1

listermint wrote: »

Count the voters. Ignore the percentages.

That's what a smart person would do......

I think his post went over your head ....

efanton

ted1 wrote: »

In 2016 they got 14% of 1st preferences in 2020 they got 24%. Simple as that.

Using 2016 as a base implies only 10% of the electrac voted SF for change


And they still achieved less than 1/4. That’s not a mandate to govern. FF and FG have close on to 50%. That’s a mandate. And for the past few years SF have said they are the same FFG so you can’t separate them now.

I give up. First prefernce votes dont count and you know it. Its only seats in theDail that count.

And I have never denied that FF have more seats. But are you the only person in the country that believes that 38 seats was a great result for FF. You honestly were not expecting them to be well above 40 seats.

I dont know what part of the country you are from, nor whether you actually are a party member somehow I doubt that, but I hear nothing from FF party members locally other than Michael Martin has to go. The FF party members I know are absolutely livid. Whats annoying them as much is instead of taking control Micheal Martin is seen as hiding in the corner and giving Mary Lou the platform that she has.

ted1

efanton wrote: »

I give up. First prefernce votes dont count and you know it. Its only seats in theDail that count.

And I have never denied that FF have more seats. But are you the only person in the country that believes that 38 seats was a great result for FF. You honestly were not expecting them to be well above 40 seats.

I dont know what part of the country you are from, nor whether you actually are a party member somehow I doubt that, but I hear nothing from FF party members locally other than Michael Martin has to go. The FF party members I know are absolutely livid. Whats annoying them as much is instead of taking control Micheal Martin is seen as hiding in the corner and giving Mary Lou the platform that she has.

I’m apolitical is have no party , just detest SF. Although I think Pearse D is good.

I think MM is playing a good game. Let ML blow hot air and see how it plays out. Tbh I have no time for MM. Reminds me of Monty Burns. I can’t take him serious.
For the record I’m in Dun Laoighre area. So proud that we kept SF out

listermint

ted1 wrote: »

I think his post went over your head ....

Oh no I got it. He's been playing a narrative for the last few days. When the votes are all the same volume for the three leading parties but not the same for the neoliberal party.

Play with numbers all ya like. The majority steered well clear of FG.

I think that went over your head ted

efanton

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The Greens increase their seats in one election by 500%. Thats HUGE !!!
FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT INCREASE.
Leaves SF getting all excited about themselves in the shade. Boom. In ya face SFers, and your puny 50%. Sorry, 'over' 50%.
Greens deserve to govern on their own I think. The people have clearly sent a message. Ireland has swung emphatically towards Green politics, and rejected the other 93%. Voted for Greens in a bigger increase than any other party.

It was a great result for the Greens. Who is denying it?
Delighted for them, now its for them to grow or fade away once the publicity wave they are on dies out. Personally I would like to see them grow a bit.

The issue as you well know is they would never be close to forming a government.

Actually on Michael Martinis performance in this election, especially after having to wait for 5 counts, I'm surprised FF got as many seats as they did. But tell me why did FF lose seats when apparently they were the party standing on the sideline waiting to go into government. 44 seats and they lose 6 in an election where they were shouting they were going to be in government.

Something very wrong there, but I think the FF party members know that, Michael Martin didnt perform in the debates, they relied on attacking SF instead of promoting their own policies, and surprise surprise now when Michael Martin should be front and centre taking the stage and control he is at it again, lack lustre performance, certainly not that of a leader, and still relying on attacks on SF they very things that lost him the election.

charlie14

efanton wrote: »

I give up. First prefernce votes dont count and you know it. Its only seats in theDail that count.

And I have never denied that FF have more seats. But are you the only person in the country that believes that 38 seats was a great result for FF. You honestly were not expecting them to be well above 40 seats.

I dont know what part of the country you are from, nor whether you actually are a party member somehow I doubt that, but I hear nothing from FF party members locally other than Michael Martin has to go. The FF party members I know are absolutely livid. Whats annoying them as much is instead of taking control Micheal Martin is seen as hiding in the corner and giving Mary Lou the platform that she has.

Sounds as if those FF party members were annoyed over something in regards to Martin other than his decision not to go into coalition with SF from what you say.

Loafing Oaf

charlie14 wrote: »

Sounds as if those FF party members were annoyed over something in regards to Martin other than his decision not to go into coalition with SF from what you say.

If their issue is: "If his plan is to do a deal with FG, he should have been out pushing that from the first day of the count rather than letting SF hog the limelight", they don't have much grasp of politics.

dxhound2005

FF may be gone for good as the force they were. Going down from 80 seats to 20 was a far more astonishing thing when it happened than SF getting 37 this time. They might continue on in the 30 to 50 range. FG appear to be solid enough, but unlikely to be the consistent party of government. It should be remembered that they were only ever a one term government, and then only rarely, until they got two in a row after the FF meltdown. Their big crash came in 2001 when they went down to 31. Labour may well be finished, but it is only 10 years ago that they burned brightly with 37 seats.

What won't be replacing the old order is SF as the new super party like FF were. What happened to all the other parties who got success should demonstrate that. It will be the fragmentation we got this time, or probably even more fragmented with more independents. And whoever does go into government will lose out the next time, including SF if they are a government party.

Looking round Europe and the world the new order seems to be populist politics, with TV reality stars, comedians and clowns getting elected on the Change agenda. A symptom I think of the richest societies in history, and the massive new numbers of "middle class", getting bored with the system which brought them such prosperity.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/future-development/2018/09/27/a-global-tipping-point-half-the-world-is-now-middle-class-or-wealthier/

efanton

charlie14 wrote: »

Sounds as if those FF party members were annoyed over something in regards to Martin other than his decision not to go into coalition with SF from what you say.

No they seem to be annoyed that they let other parties promote their policies while their politicians instead were just criticising SF and not getting their policies across. They were basically saying most of the policies that voters want or need were there but instead their TD's got into a slanging match and instead of arguing policy against policy and winning their votes they were basically putting SF down at every opportunity not getting their policies across and literally giving their votes away to the opposition. I can see their point, although some might argue that many of the FF policies didn't go far enough or simply were not ambitious enough considering the state FG has left the country in.

I see it here on the forums too. I'm pretty open minded, prepared to be persuaded on a lot of issues, but instead of using that to actually promote their parties policies, make direct comparisons, most FF supporters go straight into SF slagging mode, and instead of attracting support, or persuading people, they actually achieve the opposite they drive them away. Who in their right mind is going to sit and take anyone seriously if all they are going to do is complain, criticise and be abusive. We all have met those guys in the pub, very loud, a lot to say but actually saying nothing of substance, after 5 or 10 minutes you move on.

There is now a huge floating vote in this country, and FG and FF are literally driving them away straight to the only other party that has any hope of forming a government SF. I get it FF an FG supportors might poo poo that idea that SF will never form a government, but their actions and what they say has as much to do with the growing SF support as anything else.

ILoveYourVibes

ted1 wrote: »

So proud that we kept SF out

I don't like SF. But i am not proud of that.

It's anti democratic.

Plus its going to backfire HUGELY.

You think this surge was huge.

Its now fianna Gall vrs SF. that is the political landscape. Well done the establishment you have hung yourselves.

ted1

ILoveYourVibes wrote: »

I don't like SF. But i am not proud of that.

It's anti democratic.

Plus its going to backfire HUGELY.

You think this surge was huge.

Its now fianna Gall vrs SF. that is the political landscape. Well done the establishment you have hung yourselves.

How is it anti democratic?
The majority of people voted in a free and open election and A SF member didn’t get elected.

We democratically elected a Green, PBP, FG and a FF.

And off the 4, 3 will probably be in power

I’d like to think FG and FF have listened and change their approach to housing and health.

IngazZagni

I want change too. I want things to get done. Stop faffing about with everything.

Sinn Fein is certainly not that change. People are being fooled by pie in sky promises that simply won’t be delivered upon.

The thought of living in a socialist utopia like Cuba or Venezuela scares me and may make me rethink who I vote for next time.

So I don’t want Sinn Fein in power but I’m acutely aware that by them not forming part of Government now will only go and strengthen their position in the future. That’s a bit of a conundrum so I think my preferred option would be Sinn Fein in a coalition with heavy supervision. Let them take over health and they’ll fade away pretty quickly.

Plumbthedepths

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

The Greens increase their seats in one election by 500%. Thats HUGE !!!
FIVE HUNDRED PERCENT INCREASE.
Leaves SF getting all excited about themselves in the shade. Boom. In ya face SFers, and your puny 50%. Sorry, 'over' 50%.
Greens deserve to govern on their own I think. The people have clearly sent a message. Ireland has swung emphatically towards Green politics, and rejected the other 93%. Voted for Greens in a bigger increase than any other party.

Funny when I referenced this along with the Soc Dems increase in the vote share you were dismissive. It really is hard to take you seriously.

Plumbthedepths

IngazZagni wrote: »

I want change too. I want things to get done. Stop faffing about with everything.

Sinn Fein is certainly not that change. People are being fooled by pie in sky promises that simply won’t be delivered upon.

The thought of living in a socialist utopia like Cuba or Venezuela scares me and may make me rethink who I vote for next time.

So I don’t want Sinn Fein in power but I’m acutely aware that by them not forming part of Government now will only go and strengthen their position in the future. That’s a bit of a conundrum so I think my preferred option would be Sinn Fein in a coalition with heavy supervision. Let them take over health and they’ll fade away pretty quickly.

So you want SF in government but only if they set up to fail. Seems reasonable.lol.

ted1

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Funny when I referenced this along with the Soc Dems increase in the vote share you were dismissive. It really is hard to take you seriously.

Aren’t the Soc Dems FF lite ? Or was just Donnelly ?

efanton

ted1 wrote: »

How is it anti democratic?
The majority of people voted in a free and open election and A SF member didn’t get elected.

We democratically elected a Green, PBP, FG and a FF.

And off the 4, 3 will probably be in power

I’d like to think FG and FF have listened and change their approach to housing and health.

Where have they announced they will change anything?

That's a genuine question. I hope they have because at the end of the day it can only be good for the country if they do form a government.

ted1

efanton wrote: »

Where have they announced they will change anything?

That's a genuine question. I hope they have because at the end of the day it can only be good for the country if they do form a government.

Reread what I said “I’d like to think “
They would be foolish if they didn’t feel the kick up the arse

dxhound2005

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

So you want SF in government but only if they set up to fail. Seems reasonable.lol.

It would be ironic if they managed to do the full slate of Change that they promised. Only for the electorate to turn round and dump them because the people want Change. Just give someone else a chance like, sure they couldn't be any worse than the present lot.

ILoveYourVibes

ted1 wrote: »

How is it anti democratic?
The majority of people voted in a free and open election and A SF member didn’t get elected.

We democratically elected a Green, PBP, FG and a FF.

And off the 4, 3 will probably be in power

I’d like to think FG and FF have listened and change their approach to housing and health.

Sinn Fein won the popular vote. They have more seats than FG.

I don't like SF but even i can see they should be involved in any coalition. They three parties should have formed a coalition and just got on with it.

THAT would have been democratic. I still would have hated that coalition but its democratic.


And don't fool yourself for a second thinking that FF and FG voters won't vote SF now they know SF is a real possibility. They will.

IngazZagni

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

So you want SF in government but only if they set up to fail. Seems reasonable.lol.

I think anybody that takes over the role of health is going to suffer in the next election, that’s my point. It will take radical reform to improve things. No amount of money will fix it. I think the housing situation will be less of an issue in 5 years.

markodaly

maccored wrote: »

They probably also remember that ffg have really gave the two fingers to the people who voted for neither of them this time round by refusing the talk to SF about forming a government.

How do you know?

FF and FG told their voters that they would NOT go into coalition with SF.
Now you think the same voters will punish them for abiding by that promise.

LOL, can I have what you are smoking? :P

ted1

dxhound2005 wrote: »

It would be ironic if they managed to do the full slate of Change that they promised. Only for the electorate to turn round and dump them because the people want Change. Just give someone else a chance like, sure they couldn't be any worse than the present lot.

We have over 300,000 employed in FDI
companies. Who they want to tax heavily. So yes they could be a lot worse. If they where to pull out.

We have a lot of staff on over 150k who are paying 52% tax, they want to tax them higher, if they move we’ll lose a lot of tax , so yes it could be worse.


They want to increase social housing and payments. Without the tax take from above it could get a lot worse.


I’ve been made redundant from Intel, IBM and Motorola so don’t be under the impression that the companies will hang around because they have a large presence here