GE Exit Poll 10 pm

charlie14

Suckit wrote: »

How did Helen McEntee (among others) get voted in again. She seems to be incapable of speaking her own thoughts. Even today she was back repeating "the onus is on Sinn Fein to form a government, they wre elected by the people..." Could somebody please coach her in FG's latest line.
She is bd enough without having to repeat the repeated.

Another example of people voting for the party and not the person.

How many people do you reckon voted for a particular candidate rather than a party ?
Very few I would surmise even for SF when you consider there were people topping the poll in excess of quota that eight months previous lost their local election seat.


I do not know what people expected of McEntee.She was hardly going to outline FG`s thougjts on forming a government over the national airwaves at this stage. She was no better nor worse than any of the rest when it came to running around saying nothing new.


The only thought I took from that programme ,was the number of people who are following this attempt to form a coalition of the left, on hearing Mick Barry would go WTF.

charlie14

olestoepoke wrote: »

That "chip" on my shoulder did not appear for no reason. Both FF and Fg have had their chance and made a mess of it. As for the Green Party they are only around since the early eighties, give them a chance they may take up arms soon. Time for change.

Somehow I cannot see the Green`s marching to arms with Mick Barry and manning the barricades anytime soon.:D

Mad_maxx

Suckit wrote: »

The same people shouting IRA and Terrorism fail to realise that everyone that voted SF already knew all of those connections before they voted, repeating it over and over isn't likely to make much difference. However, they also know the stories of all the dodgy deals, the corruption allegations, the expensive tribunals, the quangos, the cronyism, the nepotism, the wage hikes, the ridiculous overspending, the hospital queues, the homelessness numbers and the hundreds of other things that can be associated with FFFG.
The reason that most people that voted for SF this time, is because they are sick to death of FF, FF, FF, FG, FG, FF, FF, FF, FG etc. and those stories.
If FFFG continue with their refusal to entertain anyone but each other, it will very likely serve to remind people exactly of which stories they may have forgotten too. But that hasn't been so much the case yet.
In any case, mud slinging seems a bit impotent when used after the horse has bolted.

FG would definitely seem to be the ones with the most to lose if SF became a regular feature with the majority of voters. After this election, I would be willing to bet that their recruitment has been in overdrive. Expect a lot of changes when they come to fruition.
FF are undoubtedly the biggest party in the country in terms of elections, FG generally get in when their regular voters are joined by protest votes. This time the protest votes went to SF for obvious reasons, and could easily again, as more and more people see FF and FG as the same party.
So the more sh*t acting by them, the better it is for SF.
FG may be in a position now to sit on the sidelines shouting instructions about who the onus is on, but as mentioned, I think it will only serve to drop their figures even more in a party that is already losing popularity, that seems like a pretty dodgy game to be playing.
Leo has delivered the 2nd worst election campaign the party has ever seen in it's entire history, yet they still seem reluctant to blame him, Harris and Murphy. But insist on blaming the C&S, and well, anything else that they can point at.
I wonder who they will blame when this all goes tits up for them too..

FF stand to loose the most by far from a thriving SF

SF do populism even better than FF

they obviously do the united ireland goal better as well

FF are becoming pointless

olestoepoke

Bill 2.0 wrote: »

Was making us 3rd on the HDI making "a mess of it"?

The HDI is flawed in many ways. It measures health using life expectancy at birth and measures economic conditions using GDP per capita, so a healthy GDP but thousands homeless, getting ill without any kind of medical insurance is a nightmare and rich landlords, hotel owners and private families running direct provision centres clean up at the taxpayers expense. Meanwhile, the state is projected to spend 3.5bn on rent subsidies to these private landlords over the next five years. Without a radical commitment to a huge public housing programme, this staggering misuse of public resources will continue. Average income can also be hugely misleading, does not illustrate the many inequalities in a society. HDI has many flaws so being 3rd on it is not as great as you may think.

Jizique

charlie14 wrote: »

How many people do you reckon voted for a particular candidate rather than a party ?
Very few I would surmise even for SF when you consider there were people topping the poll in excess of quota that eight months previous lost their local election seat.


I do not know what people expected of McEntee.She was hardly going to outline FG`s thougjts on forming a government over the national airwaves at this stage. She was no better nor worse than any of the rest when it came to running around saying nothing new.

The only thought I took from that programme ,was the number of people who are following this attempt to form a coalition of the left, on hearing Mick Barry would go WTF.

Yeah, I mean how long have we been giving out to the people of Tipp for voting for Lowry and Kerry for the Healy Rae(s); local politicians who look after local issues better left to the council, the local GAA star etc - finally, people are voting for a party, not the individual; for the policy platform and not the local yokel - I am not sure this is a bad development

Loafing Oaf

charlie14 wrote: »

I do not know what people expected of McEntee.She was hardly going to outline FG`s thougjts on forming a government over the national airwaves at this stage. She was no better nor worse than any of the rest when it came to running around saying nothing new.

If she's following the news she should know that SF has admitted it's bid to put together a left government has failed. Obviously some sort of updated holding statement was required, and if she couldn't come up with one herself that's what party spin doctors are there for...

Jinglejangle69

Ah pop in again, and STILL the usual SF comrades slating FG even though they got the boot.

Such a strange thing.

Makes me wonder.

Amyway thanks for the giggle:)

Plumbthedepths

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Ah pop in again, and STILL the usual SF comrades slating FG even though they got the boot.

Such a strange thing.

Makes me wonder.

Amyway thanks for the giggle:)

The giggle I had was when you claimed SF were raising the inheritance tax from 3% to 36%. You do know the rate is not 3% even now , many times higher.

ted1

omega man wrote: »

Has the SF / left coalition been completely ruled out yet or are they all too busy deflecting responsibility by still blaming FF and FG (this time for not going into government replacing the previous get them out!)??

No runner as they don’t have the numbers.

Jinglejangle69

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

The giggle I had was when you claimed SF were raising the inheritance tax from 3% to 36%. You do know the rate is not 3% even now , many times higher.

Take a break from boards man.

Look at your post count and how long you spend here everyday slating FG.

There is more to life, leave your house and stop been a slave to your SF online comrades:)

Plumbthedepths

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Take a break from boards man.

Look at your post count and how long you spend here everyday slating FG.

There is more to life, leave your house and stop been a slave to your SF online comrades:)

Ah dude thanks for your concern, so did you learn what the rate of inheritance tax is ? Still think it's 3%?
Anyway have you an answer, or do you want to disappear for a while?

UDAWINNER

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Take a break from boards man.

Look at your post count and how long you spend here everyday slating FG.

There is more to life, leave your house and stop been a slave to your SF online comrades:)

pot calling the kettle black:D
you at fg hq still or are you been transferred with the merger?

UDAWINNER

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Did a great job in my opinion, put Louise O’Reilly in her box today and spoke sense all the way through.

First time I heard O’Reilly getting a new one chipped out for herself.

Well done Helen

must have watched a completely different programme. O'Reill well on top

Brendan Bendar

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Take a break from boards man.

Look at your post count and how long you spend here everyday slating FG.

There is more to life, leave your house and stop been a slave to your SF online comrades:)

Good call, jingle, the Shinners can’t seem to comprehend that one less seat than Ff and two more than Fg should put them into the mayors office, as it were.

They haven’t broken the State yet, not by a long chalk.

I wouldn’t open the gates to the big sheds just yet.

Yurt2

UDAWINNER wrote: »

pot calling the kettle black:D
you at fg hq still or are you been transferred with the merger?

I'm surprised FG haven't outsourced them all to India at this stage. They're so repetitious and predictable, after about 2 weeks training, you'd get as high quality posting content from some lad with a mustache in Bangalore.

Loafing Oaf

Was O'Reilly still pleading with FF to give SF a chance? Because that would be just as lame and behind the times as Helen McEntee saying it was up to SF to put a government together.

Bobeagleburger

The broken the free state comment was embarrassing.

I know a few Sinn Fein supporters that think that too. It's a northern Sinn Fein comment. Big difference between them and the casual Sinn Fein voter in the south.

Plumbthedepths

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Good call, jingle, the Shinners can’t seem to comprehend that one less seat than Ff and two more than Fg should put them into the mayors office, as it were.

They haven’t broken the State yet, not by a long chalk.

I wouldn’t open the gates to the big sheds just yet.

Good call? Playing the man instead of the ball, surprised you approve of that.

firemansam4

So the general consensus from many seems to be that Ireland voted for change and that the result should be respected.

Now there has been talk of a coalition between FG, FF and the Greens including some others maybe.
This has been blasted by many as being undemocratic and against the wishes of the people who voted for change.

But is this opinion justified?

If you put FF, FG and the Greens together they polled over 50% of the vote.
Now yes you could say that the Greens are a change but they clearly stated they will work with any party who would implement some of there green policies in there manifesto.
So the only real change then is some green policies and not the radical left wing change that is being claimed won the election.

efanton

Brendan Bendar wrote: »

Good call, jingle, the Shinners can’t seem to comprehend that one less seat than Ff and two more than Fg should put them into the mayors office, as it were.

They haven’t broken the State yet, not by a long chalvk.

I wouldn’t open the gates to the big sheds just yet.

Totally agree with that statement.

I didn't vote SF only because there was no SF candidate in my constituency, if their had been they would have got my vote.
FG and FF have consistently failed at delivering the services and the benefits of an improving economy to the working people that they are entitled too. I personally see absolutely no point in voting for continued failure and incompetence. If FF and FG are not prepared to weed out those ministers that appear to be incapable of carrying out their duties, then I guess its up to me and other voters to ensure they do by refusing to vote for either party.

But if you agree with the above quote then you must also agree that the onus was from the very start on FF to form a government.
The first thing FF did was tell SF to try form a government, totally shirking their responsibilities. Now that SF did everything asked of them, tried to form a technically possible, but practically impossible government, the ball is firmly back in the FF court.

At the end of the day if the will of the electorate has to be recognised it means that 2 of the 3 leading parties FF SF FG MUST form a government.

FF doesn't want to form a coalition government with FG, they would much prefer a C&S agreement.
FG doesn't want a coalition government because this would place SF as the leading party on the opposition benches and elevate their position without FG also in opposition.
Neither FG or FF want to form a government with SF even though both combinations would work with the support of a 3rd party such as the Greens.

The simple truth is both FF and FG have tried to walk away from their responsibilities and are still trying to.

How could two parties that share the view that SF would be terrible for the country, and at the same time claim they have the country's interest at heart, but yet actively encourage SF to form a government, If they had the country's interest at heart they would have stepped in right away to ensure no such government was even a technical possibility from the very first day after the results came in.

We all know where this is going, FG are either going to have to cave in and form a coalition, or there will be another election within weeks.

I really hope FF and FG have thought this through, thoroughly and dispassionately, because for both another election is the very worst outcome for either of them.
SF will not make the same mistake again. They will field 2 candidates in most constituencies, they will be very clear on who is their number one and number two candidate so their vote is not diluted and they will have in place a transfers agreement with the smaller parties that they will need to form a government.
If I was Leo or Michael Martin I would be crapping myself because their next bad decision will result in political suicide for both of them.

They haven’t broken the State yet, not by a long chalk, but they definitely will if another election is called.

Edgware

efanton wrote: »

Totally agree with that statement.

I didn't vote SF only because there was no SF candidate in my constituency, if their had been they would have got my vote.
FG and FF have consistently failed at delivering the services and the benefits of an improving economy to the working people that they are entitled too. I personally see absolutely no point in voting for continued failure and incompetence. If FF and FG are not prepared to weed out those ministers that appear to be incapable of carrying out their duties, then I guess its up to me and other voters to ensure they do by refusing to vote for either party.

But if you agree with the above quote then you must also agree that the onus was from the very start on FF to form a government.
The first thing FF did was tell SF to try form a government, totally shirking their responsibilities. Now that SF did everything asked of them, tried to form a technically possible, but practically impossible government, the ball is firmly back in the FF court.

At the end of the day if the will of the electorate has to be recognised it means that 2 of the 3 leading parties FF SF FG MUST form a government.

FF doesn't want to form a coalition government with FG, they would much prefer a C&S agreement.
FG doesn't want a coalition government because this would place SF as the leading party on the opposition benches and elevate their position without FG also in opposition.
Neither FG or FF want to form a government with SF even though both combinations would work with the support of a 3rd party such as the Greens.

The simple truth is both FF and FG have tried to walk away from their responsibilities and are still trying to.

How could two parties that share the view that SF would be terrible for the country, and at the same time claim they have the country's interest at heart, but yet actively encourage SF to form a government, If they had the country's interest at heart they would have stepped in right away to ensure no such government was even a technical possibility from the very first day after the results came in.

We all know where this is going, FG are either going to have to cave in and form a coalition, or there will be another election within weeks.

I really hope FF and FG have thought this through, thoroughly and dispassionately, because for both another election is the very worst outcome for either of them.
SF will not make the same mistake again. They will field 2 candidates in most constituencies, they will be very clear on who is their number one and number two candidate so their vote is not diluted and they will have in place a transfers agreement with the smaller parties that they will need to form a government.
If I was Leo or Michael Martin I would be crapping myself because their next bad decision will result in political suicide for both of them.

They haven’t broken the State yet, not by a long chalk, but they definitely will if another election is called.

All the Shinners hoping for another election. Not going to happen.
Mary Lou has another four years widening her arse on the opposition bench

charlie14

efanton wrote: »

Totally agree with that statement.

I didn't vote SF only because there was no SF candidate in my constituency, if their had been they would have got my vote.
FG and FF have consistently failed at delivering the services and the benefits of an improving economy to the working people that they are entitled too. I personally see absolutely no point in voting for continued failure and incompetence. If FF and FG are not prepared to weed out those ministers that appear to be incapable of carrying out their duties, then I guess its up to me and other voters to ensure they do by refusing to vote for either party.

But if you agree with the above quote then you must also agree that the onus was from the very start on FF to form a government.
The first thing FF did was tell SF to try form a government, totally shirking their responsibilities. Now that SF did everything asked of them, tried to form a technically possible, but practically impossible government, the ball is firmly back in the FF court.

At the end of the day if the will of the electorate has to be recognised it means that 2 of the 3 leading parties FF SF FG MUST form a government.

FF doesn't want to form a coalition government with FG, they would much prefer a C&S agreement.
FG doesn't want a coalition government because this would place SF as the leading party on the opposition benches and elevate their position without FG also in opposition.
Neither FG or FF want to form a government with SF even though both combinations would work with the support of a 3rd party such as the Greens.

The simple truth is both FF and FG have tried to walk away from their responsibilities and are still trying to.

How could two parties that share the view that SF would be terrible for the country, and at the same time claim they have the country's interest at heart, but yet actively encourage SF to form a government, If they had the country's interest at heart they would have stepped in right away to ensure no such government was even a technical possibility from the very first day after the results came in.

We all know where this is going, FG are either going to have to cave in and form a coalition, or there will be another election within weeks.

I really hope FF and FG have thought this through, thoroughly and dispassionately, because for both another election is the very worst outcome for either of them.
SF will not make the same mistake again. They will field 2 candidates in most constituencies, they will be very clear on who is their number one and number two candidate so their vote is not diluted and they will have in place a transfers agreement with the smaller parties that they will need to form a government.
If I was Leo or Michael Martin I would be crapping myself because their next bad decision will result in political suicide for both of them.

They haven’t broken the State yet, not by a long chalk, but they definitely will if another election is called.

Very doubtful if another election would make a lot of difference to the numbers unless SF increased their FPV substantially.
Every election has it`s on dynamics and votes as as liable to drop as rise.A month ago there is no way SF believed their vote would go from falling by 5.7% to 9.5% in the recent local elections to 24.5 in this election.


SF could field two candidates in all constituencies but that can bring its own dangers by vote splitting. With the present vote in constituencies where they exceeded the quota they could pick up extra seats, but the likelihood that most of these would be at the expense of others of the left who won seats because of that surplus ending in a zero-sum game in relation to numbers.
Not that that would matter to SF as some of those on the left that gained by those surpluses seem keen to go into government anyway

efanton

Edgware wrote: »

All the Shinners hoping for another election. Not going to happen.
Mary Lou has another four years widening her arse on the opposition bench

Yet another irrelevant comment.

How could I be a 'Shinner' if I did not vote SF?

My post was posted from the perspective of the floating voter, those that are swinging towards SF, because like it or not with regards actual policy FF and FG have lost the plot and become irrelevant in that regard. If you are a diehard FG or FF voter you are going to vote for those parties no matter what so it would be stupid to say either party would ever be totally irrelevant.

Also I did not not state I was hoping for another election. Although if there is no significant movement by FG or FF in the next week that's probably what I would want. But these things take time, negotiations within parties and between parties take time so I would be reasonably happy to wait a week to see what is going to happen as long as the party's involved are actually using that time to find a solution.

So instead of assuming that everyone that posts something that isnt glowing in terms of FF and FG why not assume that maybe instead might be a floating voter that could possibly be persuaded.
FF and FG supporters on boards like this and social media are doing their own parties more damage than the actions of their TD's as far as I can see.

L1011

efanton wrote: »

I didn't vote SF only because there was no SF candidate in my constituency, if their had been they would have got my vote.

About 0.6% (its a small 3 seat a bit below average numbers) of the country live in the one constituency SF didn't run in.

There is a trend here of people who support SF policies saying they didn't vote for them. Its quite odd.

efanton

charlie14 wrote: »

Very doubtful if another election would make a lot of difference to the numbers unless SF increased their FPV substantially.
Every election has it`s on dynamics and votes as as liable to drop as rise.A month ago there is no way SF believed their vote would go from falling by 5.7% to 9.5% in the recent local elections to 24.5 in this election.


SF could field two candidates in all constituencies but that can bring its own dangers by vote splitting. With the present vote in constituencies where they exceeded the quota they could pick up extra seats, but the likelihood that most of these would be at the expense of others of the left who won seats because of that surplus ending in a zero-sum game in relation to numbers.
Not that that would matter to SF as some of those on the left that gained by those surpluses seem keen to go into government anyway

That's a fair and reasonable comment.

But don't you think with a subsequent election the Independent would loose significant numbers of seats, and even if FG and FF lost 5 or 6 seats between them the dynamic would change utterly?

Water John

Living in that one constituency, I cannot answer the question, if Liadh Ni Riada had run would she have got elected? Or would she get elected if there was another election?

L1011

Water John wrote: »

Living in that one constituency, I cannot answer the question, if Liadh Ni Riada had run would she have got elected? Or would she get elected if there was another election?

She probably would have been elected, based on the national performance. Their candidate and constituency selection was based on the May 2019 performance and assuming the first polls suggesting a huge boost were wrong.

Another election could have very, very different results. Different weather for one could make a significant change in rural constituencies.

threeball

efanton wrote: »

That's a fair and reasonable comment.

But don't you think with a subsequent election the Independent would loose significant numbers of seats, and even if FG and FF lost 5 or 6 seats between them the dynamic would change utterly?

FG could just field one candidate in every constituency except for the likes of Mayo where they'd get two. That would mean they could end up well over 40 seats even though they're at a low ebb. SF have peaked. They won't get more than they have a quite a few less is possible also. I wouldn't be surprised to see them slide back to third if we go again in the next month or two.

efanton

L1011 wrote: »

About 0.6% (its a small 3 seat a bit below average numbers) of the country live in the one constituency SF didn't run in.

There is a trend here of people who support SF policies saying they didn't vote for them. Its quite odd.

About 0.6% (its a small 3 seat a bit below average numbers) of the country live in the one constituency SF didn't run in.

I fail to see the relevance of that statement. what would be the relevance of that nationally, and more importantly what relevance does this have to the to my post?

The trend here in case you hadn't noticed is a lot of people like myself have swung to the left because FF and FG have ignored the majority of the population. They might keep their core supporters but they are literally driving away the floating voters who are crucial to any electoral win.
Instead of using ration debate and sensible arguments all people like you are doing is reinforcing that the decision to seek an alternative was the right thing to do.

What is quite odd is instead of trying to increase the support for the party which you support, you are doing the complete opposite.

charlie14

efanton wrote: »

That's a fair and reasonable comment.

But don't you think with a subsequent election the Independent would loose significant numbers of seats, and even if FG and FF lost 5 or 6 seats between them the dynamic would change utterly?

I was not talking about the Independents, although some of them could also be affected by SF running extra candidates to take advantage of those surpluses.
The zero-sum game I was referring to is the strong possibility of other parties of the left not having that surplus to avail off, where in effect SF would take their seats.


The vagaries of that happening could bizarrely actually increase FG and FF numbers in constituencies where they lost out on last seats due to that surplus electing Independent and candidates of the left.