GE Exit Poll 10 pm

ChikiChiki

I would be the first to criticise the standard of the average FG TD but Helen McEntee definitely comes across as one of their better and most capable TDs. I think she is in it for the right reasons.

Cannot say that about some of the others with the biggest portfolios.

elperello

Suckit wrote: »

I've not seen anything to allow her to really put a foot wrong. She may be capable, but again, she has not really shown much.
She hasn't put that masters to any use at all.. She has been there three years now, maybe now would be a good time to prove she's not just relying on the sympathy vote.

I think she is one to watch.

Seven years a TD and worked for her late father in Leinster House for 3 years before that.

Well past the sympathy stage.

She understands the media game. "Know when to hold em........etc."

Suckit

elperello wrote: »

I think she is one to watch.

Seven years a TD and worked for her late father in Leinster House for 3 years before that.

Well past the sympathy stage.

She understands the media game. "Know when to hold em........etc."

I've been watching.. Not seeing anything.
Time will tell, even though I believe she's already had plenty.

FrancieBrady

elperello wrote: »

Seems a very capable woman. Never put a foot wrong on the Brexit gig. Well got locally too.

Second to SF in first preferences. Passed quota on 7th count following O'Doherty's elimination.

She has a Masters in Media and Communication. If she isn't giving anything away it's because she doesn't want to not because she has no opinion

When was she grilled about the Brexit process though? Very good at delivering the message from party HQ's, no doubt about it. But an original thinker or a force in getting or delivering something?...as yet totally unproven tbh.

elperello

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When was she grilled about the Brexit process though? Very good at delivering the message from party HQ's, no doubt about it. But an original thinker or a force in getting or delivering something?...as yet totally unproven tbh.

I reckon she is at least the equal of many of the FFG front benchers.


We might not have too long to wait to see how she performs under pressure.

Brendan Bendar

Suckit wrote: »

I've been watching.. Not seeing anything.
Time will tell, even though I believe she's already had plenty.

Maybe you should listen, she put O’Reilly in her box fairly sharpish.

McMurphy

I think we're headed for another G.E going by the headlines in the Indo this morning, first line in the article says Leo states bluntly that they're off to the opposition benches.

Something's gotta give.


https://twitter.com/gavreilly/status/1229339692577050624?s=19

FrancieBrady

Patrick O'Donovan on So'R, FG's walking huff. Priceless.

Loafing Oaf

FrancieBrady wrote: »

When was she grilled about the Brexit process though? Very good at delivering the message from party HQ's, no doubt about it. But an original thinker or a force in getting or delivering something?...as yet totally unproven tbh.

Saturday's radio appearance was a test of that. Surely she should have been able to see that the notion of SF forming a left-wing government is dead in the water at this stage and some sort of new holding position was required. Although if this from Leo is the new party line on government formation, maybe she took one look at it and decided it was even more pathetic than the previous one:

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-faces-internal-resistance-to-a-grand-coalition-with-ff-and-greens-1.4175724
“Sinn Féin should try to put together a government of the left with Independents. It’s difficult and would take time, but the votes are there.

“If that doesn’t work Fianna Fáil should try to form a government with the Greens, Labour and Social Democrat parties and Independents – the numbers are there.:rolleyes:

Leroy42

They (FG) are trying to put the pressure on SF to compromise. Make it out as if SF must form a government, the will of the people, and thus any failure to form a government is basically the two fingers to the electorate simply because they didn't get their own way.

It's quite clever, and they came out of the blocks early on it. 'We (FG) accept opposition, the people have spoken. But now those that said they would make your lives better need to stand up and deliver and stop moaning that everything is hard.'

strawdog

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/forget-a-grand-coalition-here-is-what-the-next-government-will-most-likely-look-like-1.4175672

I think Michael O Regan has a good call for what might happen when the posturing stops. FFG to try make it look more rainbowy by adding an extra surplus coalition partner and slap the label change on to try make it look less like a stitch up. Will likely get heavily hard balled by the 2 junior partners who want to avoid being mudguards but will deem it worth it to keep SF at bay and also avoid another election. Imagine they would also try to funnel maximal resources in to housing and health in any govt programme to take some of the future oxygen away from SF.

Personally as someone with no party allegiance I think this could be the best outcome out of a poor selection of options. It would avoid a shock to the system that would have too many unknowns and instability. The change that is undoubtedly happening would come dropping a little more slowly, ie over the course of a couple of elections (I suspect SF would secretly prefer this too). Also, in a broader way could be positive. In PR systems coalitions and consensus building are the norms and it usually breaks in to left/right alignments. Now that civil war politics is breaking down political spectrum looks to be resetting so this might hopefully force the left to realise that if they want to get near power they will have to start finding ways of working together, being a bit more realistic and becoming attractive as a real alternative, not just a protest vote

Loafing Oaf

strawdog wrote: »

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/forget-a-grand-coalition-here-is-what-the-next-government-will-most-likely-look-like-1.4175672

I think Michael O Regan has a good call for what might happen when the posturing stops. FFG to try make it look more rainbowy by adding an extra surplus coalition partner and slap the label change on to try make it look less like a stitch up.

How is that not a 'Grand Coalition'? An ultra-grand coalition if anything...

Water John

Bertie Ahern signposted such a Govn't openly yesterday. FF + FG but also with Greens and SD to reflect and introduce the change the electorate looked for.
I think the positioning now is as much about the Greens and SD making the choice. Is their preference to be part of a SF type minority Govn't or a more centreist majority Govn't?

Tony EH

Water John wrote: »

Bertie Ahern signposted such a Govn't openly yesterday. FF + FG but also with Greens and SD to reflect and introduce the change the electorate looked for.
I think the positioning now is as much about the Greens and SD making the choice. Is their preference to be part of a SF type minority Govn't or a more centreist majority Govn't?

The Greens or SD's will need to be super careful if they go into govt. with these dogs. The former got nothing out of their time with FF before.

efanton

Well it looks like FG have slammed the door in FF's face
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/fine-gael-we-are-preparing-to-go-into-opposition-982339.html

Despite calls from senior ministers including Tánaiste Simon Coveney and Justice Minister Charlie Flanagan to not shut the door to a deal in the “national interest,” the strong mood from those assembled was it would be better to go into opposition.

Elected party members, including seven new TDs, met for six hours in Leinster House and everyone present had an opportunity to give their view.

“An Taoiseach and Fine Gael President, Leo Varadkar, told the Parliamentary Party that he relishes the challenge to lead a strong and effective Opposition for the benefit of the country,” the statement said.

Speaking to reporters after the meeting, Mr Varadkar said the Parliamentary Party agreed that the onus is on Sinn Féin to form a Government of the left with the support of independents. “Sinn Féin has an obligation to the people who voted for it to show whether or not it can honour the extraordinary promises they made,” he said.

“If Sinn Féin fails in that challenge then the onus passes to Fianna Fáil to form a government with them, and or with the Greens, Labour and Social Democrat parties and independents,” he added.

Is is this a gambit by FG to force more concessions to them in a coalition, or is it that FG really do mean what they say.

Hard to see how they could think that a SF government was still on the cards unless they were prepared to offer a deal in order for a minority government to be formed.

There are only two alternatives left and that is FG are trying to force a SF/FF coalition or that they want FF to go solo.
I cant see FF being any more successful at forming a government than SF was without at least one of the 3 leading parties joining them or offering a C&S agreement.

So is FG playing dirty, and trying to force FF to accept SF/FF coalition?

Thoughts anyone?

Loafing Oaf

efanton wrote: »

Well it looks like FG have slammed the door in FF's face

Looks like...This clause “There will be no negotiations on a Programme for Government without a further mandate from the Parliamentary Party." negates everything else in the article.
Leo knows the only options at this stage are a FF/FG (+ whoever) deal and a general election, and he has no intention of triggering the latter by slamming the door on FF. The question is are there enough people in his party who would genuinely prefer another election to block the deal.

efanton

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Looks like...This clause “There will be no negotiations on a Programme for Government without a further mandate from the Parliamentary Party." negates everything else in the article.
Leo knows the only options at this stage are a FF/FG (+ whoever) deal and a general election, and he has no intention of triggering the latter by slamming the door on FF. The question is are there enough people in his party who would genuinely prefer another election to block the deal.

That's exactly what I would have thought.

So why play the hard ball? Is it they are already in negotiation and FG want to make it clear FF need to be a bit more negotiation friendly.
They could have kept their mouths shut and simply say they are waiting for a mandate for negotiation by party members

I can see how FG would be perfectly happy to sit back on the opposition benches waiting for a government to collapse and then come back with the 'we weren't as bad as you thought line' but if FF go nuclear and force another general election surely this little play could back fire massively on FG.

Jinglejangle69

efanton wrote: »

Well it looks like FG have slammed the door in FF's face
https://www.breakingnews.ie/ireland/fine-gael-we-are-preparing-to-go-into-opposition-982339.html






Is is this a gambit by FG to force more concessions to them in a coalition, or is it that FG really do mean what they say.

Hard to see how they could think that a SF government was still on the cards unless they were prepared to offer a deal in order for a minority government to be formed.

There are only two alternatives left and that is FG are trying to force a SF/FF coalition or that they want FF to go solo.
I cant see FF being any more successful at forming a government than SF was without at least one of the 3 leading parties joining them or offering a C&S agreement.

So is FG playing dirty, and trying to force FF to accept SF/FF coalition?

Thoughts anyone?

Mary Lou said today she is trying to form a government with the left.

Are you saying she is lying?

Fann Linn

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Mary Lou said today she is trying to form a government with the left.

Are you saying she is lying?

All are agreed she won't have the figures for govt.

Jinglejangle69

Fann Linn wrote: »

All are agreed she won't have the figures for govt.

Except herself.

FrancieBrady

efanton wrote: »

That's exactly what I would have thought.

So why play the hard ball? Is it they are already in negotiation and FG want to make it clear FF need to be a bit more negotiation friendly.
They could have kept their mouths shut and simply say they are waiting for a mandate for negotiation by party members

I can see how FG would be perfectly happy to sit back on the opposition benches waiting for a government to collapse and then come back with the 'we weren't as bad as you thought line' but if FF go nuclear and force another general election surely this little play could back fire massively on FG.

Remember, neither of them have been in this particular pickle before. The possibility of them adopting a strategy that backfires is definitely on the table. They didn't exactly adopt strategies that worked in the lead in to the election either.

Fann Linn

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Except herself.

As O Broin said the other day either FG or FF will be required.

My money is on FF.

Jinglejangle69

Fann Linn wrote: »

As O Broin said the other day either FG or FF will be required.

My money is on FF.

She didn't say that today.

She said she is still trying to form a government with the left.

She's lying but she knows the some not very clued in supporters will believe her and blame everyone else.

She's lying simple.

Loafing Oaf

efanton wrote: »

That's exactly what I would have thought.

So why play the hard ball?

Well it's the Blazing Saddles move isn't it, "Next man make a move, the n****r gets it." If either FF or FG were to convince the other going into these negotiations that it was prepared to walk away and trigger an election, that party's position would be hugely strengthened. Leo knows Micheal can't walk away because he would be throwing away is last chance to become taoiseach, but Micheal isn't so sure about Leo, or about his party at any rate...

Suckit

Fann Linn wrote: »

All are agreed she won't have the figures for govt.

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Except herself.

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

She didn't say that today.

She said she is still trying to form a government with the left.

She's lying but she knows the some not very clued in supporters will believe her and blame everyone else.

She's lying simple.

https://twitter.com/irishexaminer/status/1229503915865104385

efanton

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

She didn't say that today.

She said she is still trying to form a government with the left.

She's lying but she knows the some not very clued in supporters will believe her and blame everyone else.

She's lying simple.

Maybe she isnt lying. But the only way that SF are going to form that government is to take on more than a dozen independents.

Personally I hope SF are not entertaining that idea. As far as I can see independents have a talent for destroying governments and at the same time showing incompetence far beyond what should be possible.

Loafing Oaf

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Mary Lou said today she is trying to form a government with the left.

Can't see why she has reopened this question. Just playing into the hands of FF and FG...

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Haven't Labour ruled themselves out, which means SF would need virtually all the Indos? FF and FG just want SF to make themselves look ridiculous by trying to recruit Noel Grealish and Danny Healy Rae to the cause of International Socialism.

Looks like Mary Lou has managed to sidestep this landmine::P

Galway West Independent TD Noel Grealish said the three main parties needed to talk. “Independents always put their shoulder to the wheel. There are a lot of Independents willing to support the government.”

However, Mr Grealish said Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald had said that she would not talk to him.

https://www.irishtimes.com/news/politics/fine-gael-s-plan-for-opposition-a-sign-of-humility-says-coveney-1.4177242

astrofool

It feels like MLM is in a Trump situation, didn't expect the numbers they got, but burned too many bridges with other parties to do anything with it.

I mean, spending the election painting FF/FG as the devil incarnate, then blaming them for not wanting to deal with you, in other news, water wet.

FrancieBrady

astrofool wrote: »

It feels like MLM is in a Trump situation, didn't expect the numbers they got, but burned too many bridges with other parties to do anything with it.

I mean, spending the election painting FF/FG as the devil incarnate, then blaming them for not wanting to deal with you, in other news, water wet.

Yeh, Michael Martin was there with his welcoming arms out, sending hugs and kisses...