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GE Exit Poll 10 pm

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    #632
    storker
    Registered Users Posts: 5,679 ✭✭✭storker


    retalivity wrote: »
    I normally dont condone abuse but noonan is one evil prick that i will be happy to never hear off again til the day he dies. At which point i will have a large whiskey.

    I think it's a given that most politicians are pretty contemptuous of those who vote them into power, but in Noonan's case that contempt was palpable and he displayed it like a badge of pride.


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    #633
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,577 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Why do you say that ? If the argument that the onus is on the parties most voted for to form a coalition, then surely it must be a SF/FF/FG one ? No ?

    Was just going to say that. And surely Labour and the Tories should be getting together after every British election...


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    #634
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    No.

    Key question now is whether FF end up the largest party. These guys seem pretty sure they will but I'm not enough of a psephologist to judge.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0208/1114068-exit-poll-analysis/
    https://news.sky.com/story/irish-general-election-astounding-exit-poll-predicts-three-way-tie-11929708
    If they are then the scenario will play out as I outlined in another thread:

    Martin's first choice is a 'soft left' coalition with Labour, Greens etc. If the numbers are not there for that there's a 'confidence and supply' offer from FG on the table. Can't envisage the circumstances where he would be going anywhere near SF

    This does seem the outcome alright. Interesting to see how SF gets on as potentially not even the biggest opposition party through the next Dail, and how they can try to progress beyond the 30 seat mark at the next election.


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    #635
    Kermit.de.frog
    Registered Users Posts: 23,762 ✭✭✭✭Kermit.de.frog


    So, to sum up the current situation with the parties...someone has to make a move or we go back to the polls most likely.

    giphy.gif


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    #636
    efanton
    Registered Users Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Those are big IFFs though. So it really isnt even almost without doubt really, is it ?

    Not big IF's at all.

    FF will either have to chose to form a government with FG, or choose to form a government with SF.
    Its a simple decision. Not that many IF's at all

    The outside shot is that both FF ad FG decide to retire to the opposition benches and let SF form a minority government, but could you really see that as an option.

    As I wondered, what do you think is going through Micheal Martins mind right now?
    Either way FF are screwed and poor old Martin can say goodbye to standing for Taoiseach in the next general election.


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    #637
    Patser
    Registered Users Posts: 8,041 ✭✭✭Patser


    Fann Linn wrote: »
    Suit me right now if FF/FG just carried on with their coalition. Another 4/5 years would be the end of them.

    This might be the biggest risk for Govt formation at the moment.

    There is a movement for change, but all sides might decide that sitting out the next Govt as opposition, and therefore being the alternative, would suit them.

    A FF FG arrangement again could see them worried SF gain more.

    FG sitting back and watching SF and FF try to work together after the relative stability of last 9 years could suit them too.

    FF as central party under most pressure to do a deal with either side dependant on final result.


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    #638
    thequarefellow
    Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭thequarefellow


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Thats a good thing. It allows them to indulge the more simple voter that he is voting for change, the more sophisticated voter who doesnt want change to switch his vote knowing that they are effectively the same thing. It suits Irelands political choice handsomely.

    Good for the likes of you maybe. But things are obviously changing now, thankfully.


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    #639
    storker
    Registered Users Posts: 5,679 ✭✭✭storker


    RandomViewer wrote: »
    Don't think Varadker would accept being MM's bitch, FG arrogance is a strange beast
    Sir Oxman wrote: »
    I can't see FG doing that looking at FF dropping support and probably seats.

    Quite. I hope I'm wrong. C&S #2 would be a massive Foxtrot Yankee to the country.


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    #640
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Was just going to say that. And surely Labour and the Tories should be getting together after every British election...

    Yes. Just pointing out that Johnny's reasoning does not stand up.


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    #641
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    listermint wrote: »
    Then you'll know the house prices so.

    They aren't the same level as areas around them including older council areas.


    Lottery money indeed.....

    you seem determined to ignore that anyone who got their house under affordable or social terms -purchased or renting- is avoiding what for others is a cost of thousands every month

    or do you just take it for granted?


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    #642
    JohnnyFlash
    Registered Users Posts: 7,055 ✭✭✭JohnnyFlash


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    Why do you say that ? If the argument that the onus is on the parties most voted for to form a coalition, then surely it must be a SF/FF/FG one ? No ?

    FF and SF will have almost 80 seats between them. That’s what the electorate will have expressed a preference for. Time for the parties to sit down and work out a programme for government after that. The last thing Ireland needs is months of party political bullshît while the delicate business of an EU trade deal with the UK takes place without us having a government.


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    #643
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,577 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    So, to sum up the current situation with the parties...someone has to make a move or we go back to the polls most likely.

    giphy.gif

    No. Varadkar has already said he would be prepared to support a minority FF government if FF are the largest party. Martin has reluctantly conceded he would go along with that if he had to. No movement required


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    #644
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Kermit.de.frog wrote: »
    So, to sum up the current situation with the parties...someone has to make a move or we go back to the polls most likely.

    giphy.gif

    No. It looks like a rainbow coalition, or FG supporting an FF minority govt.
    They other permutation are pretty much off the tablenow unless the exit poll is misleading or has bigger error margins than its claiming.


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    #645
    RandomViewer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,191 ✭✭✭RandomViewer


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    No.

    Key question now is whether FF end up the largest party. These guys seem pretty sure they will but I'm not enough of a psephologist to judge.
    https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0208/1114068-exit-poll-analysis/
    https://news.sky.com/story/irish-general-election-astounding-exit-poll-predicts-three-way-tie-11929708
    If they are then the scenario will play out as I outlined in another thread:

    Martin's first choice is a 'soft left' coalition with Labour, Greens etc. If the numbers are not there for that there's a 'confidence and supply' offer from FG on the table. Can't envisage the circumstances where he would be going anywhere near SF

    Greens with half a dozen seats and Labour on less than they had, 57varieties of Independant with shopping lists that make no sense, it's FF/SF with Healy Raes and a few other FF genepool inependants, Lowry will probably offer his services for the usual fee.


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    #646
    easypazz
    Closed Accounts Posts: 2,346 ✭✭✭easypazz


    efanton wrote: »
    Not big IF's at all.

    FF will either have to chose to form a government with FG, or choose to form a government with SF.
    Its a simple decision. Not that many IF's at all

    The outside shot is that both FF ad FG decide to retire to the opposition benches and let SF form a minority government, but could you really see that as an option.

    As I wondered, what do you think is going through Micheal Martins mind right now?
    Either way FF are screwed and poor old Martin can say goodbye to standing for Taoiseach in the next general election.

    FG could decide to form a government with SF.


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    #647
    UDAWINNER
    Registered Users Posts: 860 ✭✭✭UDAWINNER


    Deleted User wrote: »
    FG will probably end up in government again. Judging by the voting demographics for SF, their 2 priorities will be to get houses built and the pension age.

    That’ll wipe out the SF protest vote.
    You should lead FG, if only they'd done this years ago rather than protecting vested interest groups:)


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    #648
    [Deleted User]
    Posts: 0 ✭ [Deleted User]


    retalivity wrote: »
    I normally dont condone abuse but noonan is one evil prick that i will be happy to never hear off again til the day he dies. At which point i will have a large whiskey.

    i was ****ed outtve a thread about brian cowan once for saying fairly similar to this, my appeal was treated with some disdain and all!


  • Options
    #649
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    storker wrote: »
    Quite. I hope I'm wrong. C&S #2 would be a massive Foxtrot Yankee to the country.

    How so that, if they are the two largest parties elected ? Surely that means they most represent the will of the people ?


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    #650
    tastyt
    Registered Users Posts: 2,022 ✭✭✭tastyt


    I get it, people are sick of some of the issues facing the country and want change so voted SF.

    I also get that people think FG took over an absolute **** show and steadied the ship somewhat and the economy / employment is in a healthy enough place so voted FG.

    But whoever the **** voted for FF needs a good look at themselves. If they hadnt broke us as a nation, forcing half our young people to the other side of the world for employment while lining their own fat pockets then we might be in a better position overall in health, housing, law & order.


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    #651
    thequarefellow
    Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭thequarefellow


    Deleted User wrote: »
    i was ****ed outtve a thread about brian cowan once for saying fairly similar to this, my appeal was treated with some disdain and all!

    Would anyone step forth to support Michael Noonan? I think not.


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    #652
    meeeeh
    Registered Users Posts: 11,624 ✭✭✭✭meeeeh


    efanton wrote: »
    The outside shot is that both FF ad FG decide to retire to the opposition benches and let SF form a minority government, but could you really see that as an option..

    That would be actually funny. People Before Profit & co who made very comfortable living from knowing they will never have to govern might be suddenly in trouble. Ruth Coppinger woul have to try to implement her ideas. I wouldn't overly worry about the country because the
    government wouldn't last more than a year but it would be a mad year.


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    #653
    storker
    Registered Users Posts: 5,679 ✭✭✭storker


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    How so that, if they are the two largest parties elected ? Surely that means they most represent the will of the people ?

    Because it would mean "business as usual".


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    #654
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    JohnnyFlash wrote: »
    FF and SF will have almost 80 seats between them. That’s what the electorate will have expressed a preference for. Time for the parties to sit down and work out a programme for government after that. The last thing Ireland needs is months of party political bullshît while the delicate business of an EU trade deal with the UK takes place without us having a government.

    How can you possibly reason that. FF and FG would have 90 to 100 seats and be much closer politically. Surely that is a much better implementation of the electorates expressed wishes ?


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    #655
    Loafing Oaf
    Registered Users Posts: 16,577 ✭✭✭✭Loafing Oaf


    easypazz wrote: »
    FG could decide to form a government with SF.

    Yeah and the entire Dail could get together and vote Mattie McGrath as taoiseach...


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    #656
    storker
    Registered Users Posts: 5,679 ✭✭✭storker


    Tony EH wrote: »
    That's my take on things too. Can't realistically see any actual changes going on.

    Bu a surge in Shinner support will certainly have a "kick up the arse" effect on the usual bozos.

    We can but hope...


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    #657
    efanton
    Registered Users Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »
    No. It looks like a rainbow coalition, or FG supporting an FF minority govt.
    They other permutation are pretty much off the tablenow unless the exit poll is misleading or has bigger error margins than its claiming.

    I would argue the rainbow coalition if off the table too.

    If SF do as well as expected their transfers are less likely to go to FF or FG.
    Yes the numbers might potentially be there for a FF lead rainbow coalition but it would end up being an extremely unstable rainbow government.
    Would FF take that risk knowing that if their rainbow government collapsed SF are likely to field far more candidates and take far more seats in a subsequent election?

    This has to be the nightmare scenario for FF HQ.


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    #658
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    storker wrote: »
    Because it would mean "business as usual".

    But if that what the people voted for...


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    #659
    thequarefellow
    Registered Users Posts: 325 ✭✭thequarefellow


    tastyt wrote: »
    I get it, people are sick of some of the issues facing the country and want change so voted SF.

    I also get that people think FG took over an absolute **** show and steadied the ship somewhat and the economy / employment is in a healthy enough place so voted FG.

    But whoever the **** voted for FF needs a good look at themselves. If they hadnt broke us as a nation, forcing half our young people to the other side of the world for employment while lining their own fat pockets then we might be in a better position overall in health, housing, law & order.

    Agreed. They should have been wiped off the the political map. Would have been a good system if we were left with one centre right party and strong, left leaning opposition.


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    #660
    The Rape of Lucretia
    Closed Accounts Posts: 7,440 ✭✭✭The Rape of Lucretia


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Yeah and the entire Dail could get together and vote Mattie McGrath as taoiseach...

    I think there is something in the constitution about that accent that means they woudnt be allowed to do that.


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    #661
    FrancieBrady
    Registered Users Posts: 69,184 ✭✭✭✭FrancieBrady


    Loafing Oaf wrote: »
    Yeah and the entire Dail could get together and vote Mattie McGrath as taoiseach...

    FG and FF (particularly) adamant claims that they won't go in with SF didn't buy them a single percentage increase from 2016.

    There will be a few backbenchers and leadership contenders mulling that one over.


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