GE Exit Poll 10 pm

meeeeh

thequarefellow wrote: »

Would anyone step forth to support Michael Noonan? I think not.

I don't know why Noonan is so despised by some neither I particularly care but I have a lot worse opinion about people who just throw insults everywhere. I didn't reply to posts about Noonan because I thought it was beneath me and not because I agreed with the sentiment.

Maybe SF can sort the health crisis. We have a shocking health services for one of the most prosperous countries in the world

storker

storker wrote: »

Quite. I hope I'm wrong. C&S #2 would be a massive Foxtrot Yankee to the country.

to the country that..... voted for them in equal measures each (and likely higher after transfers) to the 'alternative?'

i dunno how that works

good that each party has been given a shot across the bows to be sure. but the electorate handed nobody any reins nor crowns this time around.

The Rape of Lucretia

efanton wrote: »

I would argue the rainbow coalition if off the table too.

If SF do as well as expected their transfers are less likely to go to FF or FG.

It will still leave SF around the 30 mark. Agree their transfer will break elsewhere in big numbers - but that will be to the advantage of the Greens and Labour. Either way, its sways the numbers towards a rainbow.

thequarefellow

efanton wrote: »

I would argue the rainbow coalition if off the table too.

If SF do as well as expected their transfers are less likely to go to FF or FG.
Yes the numbers might potentially be there for a FF lead rainbow coalition but it would end up being an extremely unstable rainbow government.
Would FF take that risk knowing that if their rainbow government collapsed SF are likely to field far more candidates and take far more seats in a subsequent election?

This has to be the nightmare scenario for FF HQ.

I voted 1 SF, 2 solidarity and 3 FG just so that it might affect FF.

I sincerely hope others did the same.

Blanco100

which of the bigger names are in trouble does anyone know?

BPKS

It's funny.

The 24% of the electorate who voted Peter Casey in the presidential election were branded as ignorant racists.

But the 23% of the electorate who voted SF today will be branded as a disaffected voice for change.

No wonder this country is all over the shop politically.

JohnnyFlash

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

FF and SF will have almost 80 seats between them. That’s what the electorate will have expressed a preference for. Time for the parties to sit down and work out a programme for government after that. The last thing Ireland needs is months of party political bullshît while the delicate business of an EU trade deal with the UK takes place without us having a government.

the electorate doesnt have that clear a voice

what % of ff votes would be "never with sf" though?

a simple analysis of the first preference wont tell you, but i bet m martin has a bloody good idea.

Plumbthedepths

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Maybe SF can sort the health crisis. We have a shocking health services for one of the most prosperous countries in the world

We have a great health service if you don't rely on the public health system, ask any patient in the Beacon or BlackRock.

joinme

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

When did FG destroy the economy? You live in one of the wealthiest and fairest countries in the world.

Wealthy yes. Fair, not a chance. If it was a fair country there would be decent and affordable healthcare, childcare and public transport available for the citizens who pay their taxes.

brendanwalsh

This is worse than Iowa guys.i can’t sleep. If the Sinn feiners get in we are all fuccked.

FrancieBrady

FrancieBrady wrote: »

FG and FF (particularly) adamant claims that they won't go in with SF didn't buy them a single percentage increase from 2016.

There will be a few backbenchers and leadership contenders mulling that one over.

im fairly certain that other things that have happened since 2016 may well have impacted on the voting

efanton

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

It will still leave SF around the 30 mark. Agree their transfer will break elsewhere in big numbers - but that will be to the advantage of the Greens and Labour. Either way, its sways the numbers towards a rainbow.

It looks that way, but is Martin a a gambling man?

His program for government would be torn to shreds before agreements could be made to get that rainbow coalition in place, it would be a government where FF HQ could not call all the shots, and there's no guarantee that the smaller parties would not defect after the first budget.

I dont like Michael Martin, never have, he strike me as the stereotype of all that is wrong with Irish politics. but I have to admit I would hate to be in his shoes tonight. What ever he chooses he knows this will be his swan song, there's no way he will be leader of FF in the next GE.

Patser

Guessing seats now is a fool's errand. This is not the UK with FPTP, transfers and local issues will be all important.

For example the Greens are on 7.9% but only ran in a small number or constituencies and will be transfer friendly (their innocuousness means they have few enemies) so could easily end up with 7 or 8 seats for such a low poll number but also be kingmaker.

Will FF to FG transfers and FG to FF transfers be high, if they see SF as a threat: SF are traditionally transfer toxic - but again is this part of the change.

Also for what its worth, the last election was a real hedge podge of indecision that resulted in a minority Govt backed by a hedge podge of all sort Independents. Independents this time seem to have suffered a lot. Also what happens to the SDs, way way down at a time people declare for Change

purple hands

Is there anything to be said for another general election?

Fann Linn

MM should start reading a bit on John Nash's Game Theory.
He's gonna need it.

BPKS

BPKS wrote: »

It's funny.

The 24% of the electorate who voted Peter Casey in the presidential election were branded as ignorant racists.

But the 23% of the electorate who voted SF today will be branded as a disaffected voice for change.

No wonder this country is all over the shop politically.

its almost as if they were different elections for different things with different alternatives isnt it by gwash

Plumbthedepths

purple hands wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another general election?

Don't worry based on the exit poll you'll get one in the Summer unless FF and FG merge.

Fann Linn

purple hands wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another general election?

An extrav5 seats in Dublin for SF plus another in Cork according to the Times.

JohnnyFlash

[Deleted User] wrote: »

Maybe SF can sort the health crisis. We have a shocking health services for one of the most prosperous countries in the world

This is yet another myth that is thrown around. We have better outcomes for cancer care than any other country in the EU apart from Finland. There are two main issues with our health service - people are living far longer because of our excellent health service (solve that one), and we have an obsession with having a small shîtty local hospital in the ‘big town’ in the county.

We need approximately 8 large hospitals in this country. Slainte care is the most radical approach to meeting this goal that Irish healthcare has seen. Ironically enough the sites for these hospitals will be former hospitals created by the church to deal with TB. Simon Harris was a reforming minister of health.

shenanagans

Blanco100 wrote: »

which of the bigger names are in trouble does anyone know?

Regina Doherty.....gone.
Joan Burton.....gone.
Either O'Connell/Eoghan Murphy gone....only one will survive.
Lisa Chambers could be in trouble too.

Those the biggest names to go I'd say.

joinme

joinme wrote: »

Wealthy yes. Fair, not a chance. If it was a fair country there would be decent and affordable healthcare, childcare and public transport available for the citizens who pay their taxes.

and accommodation wouldnt cost a working couple 40% of their joint income

if ff/fg get back in in any guise, they cannot ignore the pointers, you'd hope

cameramonkey

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

We have a great health service if you don't rely on the public health system, ask any patient in the Beacon or BlackRock.

Have you been in the Beacon recently? waiting times a few hour and problems with bed shortages.

efanton

purple hands wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another general election?

LOL.

Do you honestly think that either FF or FG could possible let that happen?

You can guarantee that there would be 50 and more SF candidates standing if another election was called. That would be bad enough, but then there would be voters that would punish FF and FG for forcing another GE.

Martin might as well announce his resignation there and then if he allowed that to happen.

shenanagans

purple hands wrote: »

Is there anything to be said for another general election?

Could happen .....if no govt formed.

But Leo will call it on a weekday....the youth came out today.

And SF will run more candidates.

Rjd2

shenanagans wrote: »

Regina Doherty.....gone.
Joan Burton.....gone.
Either O'Connell/Eoghan Murphy gone....only one will survive.
Lisa Chambers could be in trouble too.

Those the biggest names to go I'd say.

Eoghan Murphy will haave a nervous few days according to the pundits.

I seen him 4/7 with the bookies to hold his seat before this poll and think he initially opened up at 1/10.

Ross another who will struggle.

Plumbthedepths

cameramonkey wrote: »

Have you been in the Beacon recently? waiting times a few hour and problems with bed shortages.

Only a few hours, sure that's nothing compared to 12 hours + on a trolley in a public AandE.

FrancieBrady

shenanagans wrote: »

Regina Doherty.....gone.
Joan Burton.....gone.
Either O'Connell/Eoghan Murphy gone....only one will survive.
Lisa Chambers could be in trouble too.

Those the biggest names to go I'd say.

Paschal Donoghue in trouble too according to Fionan Sheehan

R.F.

Deleted User wrote: »

Maybe SF can sort the health crisis. We have a shocking health services for one of the most prosperous countries in the world

It’s a poison chalice. Health services are a huge issue worldwide no matter what country

Kermit.de.frog

shenanagans wrote: »

Lisa Chambers could be in trouble too.

Those the biggest names to go I'd say.

lol, so if FF do get in - and we were talking about their appalling list of those who would be ministers - Sean Haughey would probably be effectively our Brexit minister.

It gets worse and worse.