GE Exit Poll 10 pm

shenanagans

Rjd2 wrote: »

Eoghan Murphy will haave a nervous few days according to the pundits.

I seen him 4/7 with the bookies to hold his seat before this poll and think he initially opened up at 1/10.

Ross another who will struggle.

Galway west will lose a FG td. Kyne/Naughton....only one will survive.

Looks like FG might not get a seat in Sligo/Leitrim.

The new candidate in Mayo will never hold Enda Kennys seat either.

irishfeen

shenanagans wrote: »

Could happen .....if no govt formed.

But Leo will call it on a weekday....the youth came out today.

And SF will run more candidates.

The youth could very well be what saved FG from an absolute wipeout, had SF being down at their normal 12/13% and FF had got the difference then your talking about Bertie Ahern type figures well up into the high 70 seats.

SafeSurfer

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

For the good of the country. This isn’t Man U vs Liverpool. It’s the branch of the State tasked with implementing policies and laws that our civil service and judiciary are tasked with upholding.

The people have voted in large numbers for SF with the expectation that their vote will influence how the country is run. It’s a central tenet of democracy.

Come Monday it will be beholden on FF, SF, and the Greens to form a coalition. We genuinely don’t have time for party politics.

It’s not beholden on any party to abandon all commitments to its voters 48 hours after they have voted.

JohnnyFlash

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Paschal Donoghue in trouble too according to Fionan Sheehan

Highly unlikely to happen, but if it were to happen, then it would be a tremendous loss to the body politic of the Irish state.

Fann Linn

irishfeen wrote: »

The youth could very well be what saved FG from an absolute wipeout, had SF being down at their normal 12/13% and FF had got the difference then your talking about Bertie Ahern type figures well up into the high 70 seats.

Tonight's exit poll has SF claiming the 50 - 64 age group also.

Kermit.de.frog

The Irish people seem to be about to put this Hicksville shower back in after what happened in 2010

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3elLmrCmOqo

Have people gone stupid or what?

efanton

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

This is yet another myth that is thrown around. We have better outcomes for cancer care than any other country in the EU apart from Finland. There are two main issues with our health service - people are living far longer because of our excellent health service (solve that one), and we have an obsession with having a small shîtty local hospital in the ‘big town’ in the county.

We need approximately 8 large hospitals in this country. Slainte care is the most radical approach to meeting this goal that Irish healthcare has seen. Ironically enough the sites for these hospitals will be former hospitals created by the church to deal with TB. Simon Harris was a reforming minister of health.

This old chestnut keeps getting thrown around.
Big hospitals could only work if the transport infrastructure was there to meet it.

You might live in Dublin, but there's a huge number of people who have to travel for an hour or more just to get to their closest hospital. Now you are suggesting that some of them be closed too.

What do you say to the family of the man or woman who died because of heart attack, blood loss, or other ailment simply because it took an hour and a half or more to get them to the appropriate place to treat them.

LRNM

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

This is yet another myth that is thrown around. We have better outcomes for cancer care than any other country in the EU apart from Finland. There are two main issues with our health service - people are living far longer because of our excellent health service (solve that one), and we have an obsession with having a small shîtty local hospital in the ‘big town’ in the county.

We need approximately 8 large hospitals in this country. Slainte care is the most radical approach to meeting this goal that Irish healthcare has seen. Ironically enough the sites for these hospitals will be former hospitals created by the church to deal with TB. Simon Harris was a reforming minister of health.

Spoken from somebody who knows nothing of the health service.
Try working in it, and you'll just how at crisis point it is.

irishfeen

Fann Linn wrote: »

Tonight's exit poll has SF claiming the 50 - 64 age group also.

And that’s exactly what I mean, SF has taken the traditional FF votes in this election, the crash of 2008 has fundamentally changed Irish politics it seems.

Had SF not taken “FF votes” then FG would be decimated.

JohnnyFlash

SafeSurfer wrote: »

It’s not beholden on any party to abandon all commitments to its voters 48 hours after they have voted.

Which party? Actually it doesn’t matter. People vote for the local representative of a party who they believe best represents their interests, policies, and views. If that party is in a position to go into government then that’s what they should do. This idea that you can somehow be an ideological party of protest only holds up until you actually get enough seats to go into government.

shenanagans

irishfeen wrote: »

The youth could very well be what saved FG from an absolute wipeout, had SF being down at their normal 12/13% and FF had got the difference then your talking about Bertie Ahern type figures well up into the high 70 seats.

That's another way of looking at it. I'd have thought most young people living in cities like Dublin paying crazy rent would vote at home (rural...parents house). More likely they'd vote on a Saturday.....maybe I'm totally of the mark.

storker

Deleted User wrote: »

to the country that..... voted for them in equal measures each (and likely higher after transfers) to the 'alternative?'

i dunno how that works

good that each party has been given a shot across the bows to be sure. but the electorate handed nobody any reins nor crowns this time around.

Confidence and Supply #2 would mean no change. The electorate didn't vote for them all equally (if indeed it did), in order to get that. If no change was required, then FFG would have done much better.

JohnnyFlash

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Which party? Actually it doesn’t matter. People vote for the local representative of a party who they believe best represents their interests, policies, and views. If that party is in a position to go into government then that’s what they should do. This idea that you can somehow be an ideological party of protest only holds up until you actually get enough seats to go into government.

i dunno why, with that said, you think theres any more pressure on any one of the big two/three than the others

what odds a three way conf/supply!

charlie14

meeeeh wrote: »

I don't know why Noonan is so despised by some neither I particularly care but I have a lot worse opinion about people who just throw insults everywhere. I didn't reply to posts about Noonan because I thought it was beneath me and not because I agreed with the sentiment.

Any time I had for him went out the window whit how Bridget McCole was dragged through the courts during the hepatitis C scandal.

JohnnyFlash

LRNM wrote: »

Spoken from somebody who knows nothing of the health service.
Try working in it, and you'll just how at crisis point it is.

How would you solve the issues with our health service, and how would you propose to pay for these solutions?

storker

storker wrote: »

Confidence and Supply #2 would mean no change. The electorate didn't vote for them all equally (if indeed it did), in order to get that. If no change was required, then FFG would have done much better.

the electorate voted 44% for ff/fg

in transfer/seat terms, itll be higher

no coherent alternative will match it in all likelihood

"change" isnt a viable alternative if "change" has to cover from PBP all the way over to Aontú, is it?

forcing a narrative wont make any difference.

irishfeen

shenanagans wrote: »

That's another way of looking at it. I'd have thought most young people living in cities like Dublin paying crazy rent would vote at home (rural...parents house). More likely they'd vote on a Saturday.....maybe I'm totally of the mark.

If these figures ring thru for FG then it’s a bad day in the office but nothing catastrophic, they will be behind FF in terms of seats but the extra seats FF get mean nothing as they won’t have enough.

You have to wonder how worse things could get for FG - not very much I don’t think given the housing/homeless mess, healthcare and the RIC debacle... that’s the most worrying thing for Fianna Fáil - what if Ireland never forgives them for the crash.

Calhoun

tastyt wrote: »

I get it, people are sick of some of the issues facing the country and want change so voted SF.

I also get that people think FG took over an absolute **** show and steadied the ship somewhat and the economy / employment is in a healthy enough place so voted FG.

But whoever the **** voted for FF needs a good look at themselves. If they hadnt broke us as a nation, forcing half our young people to the other side of the world for employment while lining their own fat pockets then we might be in a better position overall in health, housing, law & order.

Problem with this though is FF is a fallguy for allot of greed that happened around then. They played a major hand in it but so did allot of people at the time.

People seem to forget the greed at the time, the keeping up with the jones and the like.

Fann Linn

Calhoun wrote: »

Problem with this though is FF is a fallguy for allot of greed that happened around then. They played a major hand in it but so did allot of people at the time.

People seem to forget the greed at the time, the keeping up with the jones and the like.

That's fine and dandy if only the greedy suffered for their vices, the reality is however everyone suffered and everyone paid and some continue to pay.

That is FF fault.

Plumbthedepths

charlie14 wrote: »

Any time I had for him went out the window whit how Bridget McCole was dragged through the courts during the hepatitis C scandal.

For how B McCole was treated by Noonan and his party, they will forever be scum in my eyes.

Fann Linn

Fann Linn wrote: »

That's fine and dandy if only the greedy suffered for their vices, the reality is however everyone suffered and everyone paid and some continue to pay.

Tha is FF fault.

and the people paying most now- taxpayers who rent- are the people who gained nothing

an awful lot of the people who gained most have been very well looked after by fg - banks have recovered, property has recovered, very few lost their houses, thanks lads we made it!

JohnnyFlash

efanton wrote: »

This old chestnut keeps getting thrown around.
Big hospitals could only work if the transport infrastructure was there to meet it.

You might live in Dublin, but there's a huge number of people who have to travel for an hour or more just to get to their closest hospital. Now you are suggesting that some of them be closed too.

What do you say to the family of the man or woman who died because of heart attack, blood loss, or other ailment simply because it took an hour and a half or more to get them to the appropriate place to treat them.

Talk to people in rural Finland, Canada, and Norway. All vaunted as having world class health systems. Their model certainly doesn’t involve having a local hospital with the expertise to solve every complex health issue affecting those who need urgent healthcare. We live in a tiny island. Parochial hospitals are one of the major issues we have with our legacy health service.

The major issue of course is having such a good health service, and access to increasingly transformative medication, that we now have people living into their late 80’s.

For further issues relating to this see our upcoming pension crisis, and the lack of housing stock that would naturally come on the market due to death.

Big issues. Macro issues.

Calhoun

Fann Linn wrote: »

That's fine and dandy if only the greedy suffered for their vices, the reality is however everyone suffered and everyone paid and some continue to pay.

Tha is FF fault.

Indeed but allot of the electorate of a certain age need to look at themselves as they were the pigs happily feeding at the trough.

Just blaming FF is simplistic and stupid, because it takes the blame off the voting idiots who will make the same mistake again and vote for shiny trinkets while bad policy is put in place.

Plumbthedepths

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

For how B McCole was treated by Noonan and his party, they will forever be scum in my eyes.

what party dyou support yrself that havent been responsible for someone being the brunt of ****ty policies or positions?

cant be either of the two other 22 percenters, surely?

charlie14

efanton wrote: »

I would argue the rainbow coalition if off the table too.

If SF do as well as expected their transfers are less likely to go to FF or FG.
Yes the numbers might potentially be there for a FF lead rainbow coalition but it would end up being an extremely unstable rainbow government.
Would FF take that risk knowing that if their rainbow government collapsed SF are likely to field far more candidates and take far more seats in a subsequent election?

This has to be the nightmare scenario for FF HQ.

It would also be the nightmare scenario for FG.

The most likely government, as it has looked from the outset, will be a confidence and supply agreement and have a better chance of surviving as neither will be keen to go back to the country anytime soon.

Kermit.de.frog

Calhoun wrote: »

Just blaming FF is simplistic and stupid, because it takes the blame off the voting idiots who will make the same mistake again

Erm, Fine Gael have not been making the same mistakes again that's why people are voting against them.

They are running a government surplus and keeping spending under control.

The Irish want incompetent gombeens in government and the same wreckless policies that went before and led to disaster.

It's plain as day.

storker

Deleted User wrote: »

the electorate voted 44% for ff/fg

"change" isnt a viable alternative if "change" has to cover from PBP all the way over to Aontú, is it?
.

"Change" is about what change actually delivers, not about the optics of the makeup of the Dail. If "more of the same" was what was wanted, then I submit that it should have scored a lot higher than 44%.

irishfeen

charlie14 wrote: »

It would also be the nightmare scenario for FG.

The most likely government, as it has looked from the outset, will be a confidence and supply agreement and have a better chance of surviving as neither will be keen to go back to the country anytime soon.

I would actually disagree, as I say I don’t think it can get much worse for FG, better candidate selection and an extended period of uncertainty means they would likely recover some support.

As I say I think it’s FF in big trouble here, FG have a solid core support, SF is a massive threat to FF and the likelihood of a massive swing back to FF is remote.

shenanagans

Deleted User wrote: »

and the people paying most now- taxpayers who rent- are the people who gained nothing

an awful lot of the people who gained most have been very well looked after by fg - banks have recovered, property has recovered, very few lost their houses, thanks lads we made it!

FG failed to see the rental crisis....and failed to do anything about it. It's been brewing for at least 7 years. Nothing was done and the renters came out today and punished Leo and co. that's the long and short of it.

They did a good job with the economy but tell that to someone paying an enormous % of their income on rent....who can't save and can't buy a home.

The rental crisis lost FG this election.

James Brown

meeeeh wrote: »

Personally I think Labour or Greens are a viable third option. People don't agree with me and that's fine but no I don't think SF won because their programme is that great. It was more or less the same a few years ago and they burned in local elections. It's a protest vote against establishment.

Isn't every vote for FG a protest vote when FF are in and vice versa?
Housing, homelessness, health and the ignorant arrogance of FG added to that.
How do you square FF getting the same as FG, SF? Corn circles?