GE Exit Poll 10 pm

devnull

FF have this by several percent sadly, the exit poll was a poor one and not representative of the electorate and those responsible need to look at their methodology and how they are selecting people to ask.

This graph shows it wasn't reflective of the overall electorate



If it was reflective you'd expect that graph to resemble more the 2016 result but it doesn't, it suggests those who were polled at the exit poll were not a proper cross section of the population and there were a far bigger share of people who voted Fine Gael in 2016.

lawred2

Amira Fancy Thriller wrote: »

Why not, SF and a right wing party would provide a clear choice that voters could make.

Oh yeah because partisan politics is a great place to be..

Two of the most dysfunctional political systems spring to mind in the UK and US where it's all adversarial and nothing else. If you're not with us you're against us leads to all manners of ills being forgiven as long as they are on 'your side'..

It's not something to wish for

um7y1h83ge06nx

lawred2 wrote: »

It's not something to wish for

Absolutely not but FF and FG appear to be slowly dying particularly among younger voters. Partisan politics is better than having any one political party get too big. Give voters a choice, that's democracy.

lawred2

lawred2 wrote: »

SF are not socialist. They are populist.

Social policies does not mean socialism.

They haven't done anything yet anyway and it's more likely that FF and FG will do their utmost to put SF in opposition. So unbunch your knickers and relax.

What if it's a hung dail and it goes to re election

If FG and FF dont sort out the problems in the next Dail, SF will get a majority in the GE

pc7

Has any site/paper done a breakdown of how this could translate into seats?

Widdensushi

Deleted User wrote: »

What if it's a hung dail and it goes to re election

If FG and FF dont sort out the problems in the next Dail, SF will get a majority in the GE

don't be ridiculous, sf are never getting a majority and will be far from it if there is an election in the next year. People were rethinking voting for them as it was. Many that were voting for them a couple of weeks ago had changed their minds.

olestoepoke

Widdensushi wrote: »

don't be ridiculous, sf are never getting a majority and will be far from it if there is an election in the next year. People were rethinking voting for them as it was. Many that were voting for them a couple of weeks ago had changed their minds.

Say to yourself whatever makes you feel better:D

listermint

Amira Fancy Thriller wrote: »

Absolutely not but FF and FG appear to be slowly dying particularly among younger voters. Partisan politics is better than having any one political party get too big. Give voters a choice, that's democracy.

What party is getting to big.

There you go on your rethoric again.

We've an even split in a turnout poll and you've gone off on a wild one calling for divisive politics. Your part of the problem. We don't need this sort of absurdism in the country.

is_that_so

pc7 wrote: »

Has any site/paper done a breakdown of how this could translate into seats?

Michael Marsh has put something together on RTE but with lots of health warnings, probably on IT as well. Final seat totals are very hard to call if this is how people went on 1st prefs, especially with likely transfers available from SF.

8-10

pc7 wrote: »

Has any site/paper done a breakdown of how this could translate into seats?

Irish Times estimate 32 for Sinn Fein and somewhere in the low to mid 40’s for the other 2

namloc1980

Oh dear

um7y1h83ge06nx

listermint wrote: »

What party is getting to big.

There you go on your rethoric again.

We've an even split in a turnout poll and you've gone off on a wild one calling for divisive politics. Your part of the problem. We don't need this sort of absurdism in the country.

Apologies I'll stay obedient and quiet, wouldn't want to be abducted or kneecapped.

Widdensushi

Widdensushi wrote: »

don't be ridiculous, sf are never getting a majority and will be far from it if there is an election in the next year. People were rethinking voting for them as it was. Many that were voting for them a couple of weeks ago had changed their minds.

If the status quo continues with health, housing etc, people will be even more frustrated come the next election so SF will rise even further.

Only hope is the economy continues to grow and rather than wasting money that they sort out the current mess.

There is lots of positives but also lots of negatives at the moment

olestoepoke

Amira Fancy Thriller wrote: »

Apologies I'll stay obedient and quiet, wouldn't want to be abducted or kneecapped.

Or worse left on a hospital trolley for 72 hours.

Edgware

VinLieger wrote: »

God its infuriating seeing how many people said pensions was a major issue for why they voted for SF.

Not tackling the pension time bomb like SF want to do will screw the country.

Pensions Housing Health. It's not Sinn Fein. It's Me Fein.
It is in this election as it's been in every election.
And like every election people are going to end up disappointed. Parties were lured into promises of tax cuts, free healthcare etc. Sorry folks it won't work that way.

is_that_so

Amira Fancy Thriller wrote: »

Absolutely not but FF and FG appear to be slowly dying particularly among younger voters. Partisan politics is better than having any one political party get too big. Give voters a choice, that's democracy.

Give people a reason to be angry at parties and this is what you get. This is the same kind of volatile vote that brought Labour to nearly 40 seats and down to 7. The core vote of most parties at this stage is becoming a lot smaller with a floating vote that could literally go anywhere.

listermint

Amira Fancy Thriller wrote: »

Apologies I'll stay obedient and quiet, wouldn't want to be abducted or kneecapped.

You've made my point for me....


Absurd. When's your flight to the super utopia....

FrancieBrady

pc7 wrote: »

Has any site/paper done a breakdown of how this could translate into seats?

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0208/1114081-election-seat-predictions/

is_that_so

Edgware wrote: »

Pensions Housing Health. It's not Sinn Fein. It's Me Fein.
It is in this election as it's been in every election.
And like every election people are going to end up disappointed. Parties were lured into promises of tax cuts, free healthcare etc. Sorry folks it won't work that way.

Well, housing and health, campaign issues that could be flagged in your sleep.

VinLieger

is_that_so wrote: »

Well, housing and health, campaign issues that could be flagged in your sleep.

Indeed but the pensions thing is just fvcking stupid, FG should have grabbed it by the balls at the start of the election and explained it properly instead of letting SF and FF turn it into a populist football

Richard Hillman

If you go by the exit poll of the last election by ipsos/mrbi and how it differed from the actual vote
FG -0.6%
FF +1.4%
SF - 1.2%

Translate that difference to this year's exit poll
FG 21.8%
FF 23.7%
SF 21.0%

That seems more in line to what we were getting over the last couple of weeks

is_that_so

VinLieger wrote: »

Indeed but the pensions thing is just fvcking stupid, FG should have grabbed it by the balls at the start of the election and explained it properly instead of letting SF and FF turn it into a populist football

I think they were too busy promoting the things they had done well but that nobody cared about. It's also a bit too emotive. Now, if they'd spotted the anomaly well in advance of the election and moved to address it, it would have nullified any other party policies around it.

listermint

is_that_so wrote: »

I think they were too busy promoting the things they had done well but that nobody cared about. It's also a bit too emotive. Now, if they'd spotted the anomaly well in advance of the election and moved to address it, it would have nullified any other party policies around it.

Avoiding working adults having to sign up for the dole on retirement who'd have thought it might cause a problem..........

is_that_so

listermint wrote: »

Avoiding working adults having to sign up for the dole on retirement who'd have thought it might cause a problem..........

Should have been part of the plan to look at employment contract laws, when they raised it to 66.

namloc1980

FF all over the shop. Thomas Byrne saying they want to lead the next govt but again ruling out a coalition with FG and won't do business with SF. Deluded.

is_that_so

namloc1980 wrote: »

FF all over the shop. Thomas Byrne saying they want to lead the next govt but again ruling out a coalition with FG and won't do business with SF. Deluded.

Nobody who knows who Thomas Byrne is quotes him! Great man for bravado and lack of insight.

devnull

namloc1980 wrote: »

FF all over the shop. Thomas Byrne saying they want to lead the next govt but again ruling out a coalition with FG and won't do business with SF. Deluded.

FF have this by several percent sadly, the exit poll was a poor one and not representative of the electorate and those responsible need to look at their methodology and how they are selecting people to ask.

This graph shows it wasn't reflective of the overall electorate



If it was reflective you'd expect that graph to resemble more the 2016 result but it doesn't, it suggests those who were polled at the exit poll were not a proper cross section of the population and there were a far bigger share of people who voted Fine Gael in 2016.

listermint

is_that_so wrote: »

Should have been part of the plan to look at employment contract laws, when they raised it to 66.

Absolute idiocy when you think about it for even half a second

Bobeagleburger

Over 65s the only age category that didn't have SF as number 1. Incredible really.

They'll be the biggest party in 20 years. 30/40 years ago FF and FG has 80% of the vote between them. They are gradually being eaten up.

Still not convinced at Sinn Feins economic policies. Seems pie in the sky. It's based a lot on taxing the wealthy more. How does that work if the economy downturns? A lot of spoofing that people fell for. Can't blame them with the rent, house and hospital mess.

is_that_so

listermint wrote: »

Absolute idiocy when you think about it for even half a second

Yeah, I understand why they wouldn't have promised any resources at that time but it should have been parked until a time when they could.