GE Exit Poll 10 pm

sdanseo

3 way neck and neck.
I'd be very surprised if we're not doing it all again within six months.

flexcon

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

That does seem to be the problem. From the RTE figures, it certainly looks like we shall have to raise the voting age to 25+ before permanent damage is done to the country.

Yikes. Let’s not turn into Britain and their way of dividing each other with garbage like that.

Darc19

A government will be near impossible to form unless ff/FG coalition.

Numbers unlikely to stack up any other way except possibly FF SF green

Westernyelp

interesting to see what paddy power thinks

The Rape of Lucretia

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Good I have money on that. Looking like a stretch though with FF on 22%

That will come through to about 28-30% of the seats though, where for SF it will not.

bilbot79

How does the transfer system work?

gmisk

RMAOK wrote: »

Another election could well suit Sinn féin

Your a candidate your a candidate your all candidates!

Zeek12

RMAOK wrote: »

That's possibly what could happen as a means of keeping Sinn féin out of government.

Confidence and supply again, perhaps?

Only likely government from this is FF/FG

I reckon the FF vote will be slightly higher than the exit poll suggests. There is still an embarrassment factor there for some voters since 2010....who just won’t admit they voted FF.

Varadkar is probably breathing a little easier tonight.
Not a brilliant poll for them. But by no means the predicted FG collapse either

sdanseo

bilbot79 wrote: »

How does the transfer system work?

Explained here
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Single_transferable_vote

jpfahy

sdanseo wrote: »

3 way neck and neck.
I'd be very surprised if we're not doing it all again within six months.

Six weeks more like

gmisk

bilbot79 wrote: »

How does the transfer system work?

There was a great little video on rte with lines of school children. Will see if I can find

Westernyelp

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

That does seem to be the problem. From the RTE figures, it certainly looks like we shall have to raise the voting age to 25+ before permanent damage is done to the country.

Shakin in your right wing boots. Love it.

christy c

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Good I have money on that. Looking like a stretch though with FF on 22%

Yeah definitely a stretch, 5/1 which suggests there's no clear favourite

Caquas

No media commentator has yet twigged the real significance of this poll, if it’s accurate.

It means a “confidence and supply “ arrangement between FF and FG won’t work. Neither party will be within an ass’s roar of a majority, even if the other party abstains. Will they even have a majority if they went into coalition? And we all know they’d rather sup with the “devil” (SF) before forming a coalition together.

bilbot79

FF and FG should just amalgamate instead of pretending they're a different party. Picking one over the over is the political version of football fandom

dxhound2005

That's some disaster for FF if 22% is true. 41.6% in 2007 (Bertie), 17.4 2011, 24.3 2016 Micheál. Any other party would have ditched him long ago.

gmisk

bilbot79 wrote: »

How does the transfer system work?

https://www.rte.ie/amp/1113400/
Best explanation I've seen in video

Spanish Eyes

Banana Republic. wrote: »

Ppl want change, simple as.

Some younger voters in the Universities and right on Millennials want change alright, no doubt.

But more mature voters who have seen everything seem to be happy enough with a steady ship, even though it is leaking holes everywhere. We have a good economy don't we (stupid), lowest unemployment rate, and so on.

Many are happy enough with the status quo. And in saying that I do understand the gripes the younger people have regarding housing. But most of the Uni types feck off to ME and elsewhere after we have paid for their tuition and couldn't give a whatnot eventually.

It's a herd mentality. But it's working and whilst I don't agree with SF and would never give them a scratch ever, in time the old codgers will ease off their mortal coil, and there will/may eventually be a SF led Government. Hope I'm retired to an offshore island by then!

But credit where it is due just the same, SF pitched to a certain demographic who have never witnessed or heard of nor care that the Army Council, not MLMD is in charge of SF.

godtabh

Zetor19 wrote: »

Rte and the media’s dirty campaign the last week backfired big time by the looks of it.

calling out a party for what it is is a dirty campaign?

Blaze420

bilbot79 wrote: »

FF and FG should just amalgamate instead of pretending they're a different party. Picking one over the over is the political version of football fandom

Picking any of them over the other is pointless, the funding is finite despite what the likes of SF would want people to believe.

STB.

GDK_11 wrote: »

As a Brit living in Ireland the SF vote reminds me so much of the Brexit vote back in the uk. Neither manifesto remotely adds up and I feel like people know that half of what is promised won’t be close to being delivered but I guess it’s a protest vote. Interestingly lots of young ones on the vote

Politicians in Ireland are the benchmark for other politicians worldwide. They aspire to have that Irish ability to speak out of both sides of their mouths and hope voters develop amnesia come the next election day.

velo.2010

Fianna Fail missed a trick by not positioning themselves to the left of centre. Sinn Fein have filled that void and are now the party of the left. Labour are no longer a player and the far left support has plateaued.

I'm surprised that Sinn Fein have done so well with youth voters. Yes, it was expected to gain support from that demographic, but nobody thought to that extent. Is it a protest vote or do young people genuinely believe that Sinn Fiein can do something for them?

Like I said earlier, more trip ups by a another FF-FG agreement might just push Sinn Fein over the line, next time round.

FrancieBrady

The in-fighting in FF tonight would be good to be party too.

Phones will be glowing red as alliances form. 22% is the same as they finished in 2016. Michael has pedaled furiously to stand still.

FG have to be happy with that.

And SF can just sit back now and let it all happen. They cannot lose here.

jos28

Hurrache wrote: »

The thing is, our economy is in good shape and pretty much full employment levels, so not a bad state in reality, despite the well publicised social issues.

I have to agree - major social issues to be sorted but credit has to be given where it's due. When the horrendous reign of Brian Cowen ended I was on a 3 day week and was subsequently made redundant after 23 years. My son graduated in November and within 2 weeks was working and living abroad along with every single graduate in his class. The public service embargo closed Templemore, saw our nursing graduates heading for the airports and newly qualified teachers unable to get near a classroom.
I'm now employed in a job I love, the son is home and has bought a house.
We have choices that were not available 10 years ago. I realise that I am only speaking for myself and that the Government owes more to it's citizens but time will tell.

Westernyelp

Westernyelp wrote: »

interesting to see what paddy power thinks

Well, he has just slashed his odds on there being a second general election in 2020 haha.

Borgo

PP giving 2/1 for another election

freshpopcorn

Oh God some people are slow.
I've seen comments online and people actually think this is the result of the election.(I think these are first time voters of all ages).

RandomViewer

Millionaire only not wrote: »

The shinners will stay in opposition , there not capable or don want to be in government ! Especially a rainbow government

FF are hungry for power, MM will step aside and let the new leader make a deal with SF. Any deal with FG would destroy both parties next election.

gmisk

So who is more transfer friendly FF or FG generally?

Edgware

bilbot79 wrote: »

How does the transfer system work?

Follow it on Sky Sports. They give a run down on all the latest transfers e.g Joe Blogs goes on loan from Crewe to Wigan