GE Exit Poll 10 pm

LeinsterDub

jos28 wrote: »

My understanding is that ALL ballot papers are examined again.

For example:

Candidate A receives 6000 first preference votes at the first count. The quota is 5000. A is elected with a surplus of 1000 votes.

Out of A’s 6000 total votes, 30% gave their second preference to B, and 20% gave their second preference to C.

B receives 300 votes (30% of 1000) and C receives 200 votes (20% of 1000) etc

The would take a month to count.

The random element may occur as a consequence of surplus distribution. If the
surplus votes of an elected candidate are fewer than the number of transferable votes in the parcel being
examined, Irish electoral law provides, in effect, for a random selection of papers to pass to continuing
candidates. Further preferences on these papers may affect the final outcome of the election


https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=http://www.tara.tcd.ie/bitstream/handle/2262/68751/v16n11984_1.pdf%3Fsequence%3D1%26isAllowed%3Dy&ved=2ahUKEwiL5-bGtsXnAhVgRBUIHTTICKwQFjATegQIBxAB&usg=AOvVaw3IBl5ZRhCblSotQp0ATwQ_&cshid=1581284240821

Muahahaha

FrancieBrady wrote: »

I think O'Cuiv is in a humdinger fight for a seat with the SF candidate.

O'Cuiv will be grand though, the only a question is if he gets elected first or second. He has a political monopoly on the Aran islands and in Connemara because he secured them subsidies for living there.

is_that_so

blackcard wrote: »

What are the latest projections of seats for each party? I am hoping that SF gets more seats than FG and go into government with FF. See what they can do.

Paddy Power might be a good place to look. Nobody else is risking a guess!

tikkahunter

limnam wrote: »

joan burton gone

In fairness she has done good work for her constituency for years but she was really up against it this time.

listermint

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Five more years of FFG would mean they REALLY have to do what the electorate want. Deliver change and quickly. Their strategists know this now.

But to be fair, I am a worry wart, and do not want instability or any danger to the economy right now. We are doing alright with a steady ship, albeit with many holes in the bow.

But then again recession beckons, the cycle of boom is nearing completion. So let's see who gets to clean up the next mess.

We aren't doing alright.

If this housing problem continues for another year or two it will kill growth.

Multinationals are no longer concerned about tax issues it's no where to put their staff. People won't come because they can't get homes.

This isn't rocket science...

The Rape of Lucretia

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

Shane ‘No bailout for the FAI’ Ross, who gave them a €20m bailout?

Good riddance.

It was a financial instrument, not a bailout.

limnam

from_atozinc wrote: »

When a politician does not get elected who was elected last time, what do they do with themselves or work at etc?

go back to teaching usually. or running the pub or landlording

Sir Oxman

from_atozinc wrote: »

When a politician does not get elected who was elected last time, what do they do with themselves or work at etc?

A lot have other jobs/businesses
They get a parachute payment to help them with the shock

amadangomor

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

SF electoral strategists fielding so few candidates must be terrified of Gerry and the Army Council right now. I'd say they've gone to Oz.

Gerry and the army council are the electoral strategists

Fr_Dougal

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Five more years of FFG would mean they REALLY have to do what the electorate want. Deliver change and quickly. Their strategists know this now.

But to be fair, I am a worry wart, and do not want instability or any danger to the economy right now. We are doing alright with a steady ship, albeit with many holes in the bow.

But then again recession beckons, the cycle of boom is nearing completion. So let's see who gets to clean up the next mess.

They had an enormous kick up the backside thanks to SF voters, but I believe SF in government would be disastrous.

Hercule Poirot

from_atozinc wrote: »

When a politician does not get elected who was elected last time, what do they do with themselves or work at etc?

I assume they get a seat in the Senate like Mulherin did

LeinsterDub

The Rape of Lucretia wrote: »

It was a financial instrument, not a bailout.

A zero interest loans which they couldn't survive without is basically the dictionary definition of a bail out

perrito caliente

from_atozinc wrote: »

When a politician does not get elected who was elected last time, what do they do with themselves or work at etc?

Dole.

blackcard

drunkmonkey wrote: »

Serious question do you work for a living and have any ambition to better your lot.

Yes. I work and am happy with my lot. How about you?

ygolometsipe

is_that_so wrote: »

He's really not. Look at the votes of his running mate, she'll take him home comfortably.

I was thinking the transfers might work against him since SF has such a high quota but then I noticed its 5 seats.

tikkahunter

Be interesting to see when all these students do qualify into good jobs how they will feel being taxed to the hilt with SF.

LeinsterDub

perrito caliente wrote: »

Dole.

Is that what they are calling the Seanad now?

is_that_so

ygolometsipe wrote: »

I was thinking the transfers might work against him since SF has such a high quota but then I noticed its 5 seats.

Exactly, he'll be safe!

lmimmfn

LeinsterDub wrote: »

A zero interest loans which they couldn't survive without is basically the dictionary definition of a bail out

Should have been dismantled and recreated from scratch, that's OUR money

LeinsterDub

tikkahunter wrote: »

Be interesting to see when all these students do qualify into good jobs how they will feel being taxed to the hilt with SF.

Are you claiming 25 % of the people in this country are students?

efanton

from_atozinc wrote: »

When a politician does not get elected who was elected last time, what do they do with themselves or work at etc?

For most of them basically the same as they have been doing for the last 4 years.
Absolutely nothing:D

Millionaire only not

jos28 wrote: »

Each of those 2000 surplus papers are distributed to the second preference on each paper.

But how do they decide which 2000 votes they use if they got 10000 in first count thereby elected and the said 2000 to be distributed!
For example say 8000 was the quota and 6000 of them had a second preference ?

Sir Oxman

UCD seat projection
FF 45
SF 37
FG 36
L 6
SPBP 5
G 10
SD 5
Ind 16

efanton

latest UCD prediction

FF 45
FG 36
SF 37

drunkmonkey

blackcard wrote: »

Yes. I work and am happy with my lot. How about you?

I want more money in my pocket. It's why I didn't vote Sinn Fein and don't want them in Government.

ShaneU

Michael Martin 1/5 to be back as Taoiseach

road_high

Sir Oxman wrote: »

i'm not advocating for it but it is the natural coalition and they will get the largest bloc of seats.
And I'd question that the entirety of their voters didn't take it into account and would be ok with it bar a few fanatics.



It would be advantageous for SF if this happens but not for the public unless they both have learned their lesson on housing and the cost of living

SF have a mandate to govern - while I’m sure they’d just love to play out yet another round of hurling on the ditch, they’re potentially the lead party and given a big mandate to implement that manifesto they’re elected to deliver.
While I’m sure they love another election after opposing everything and everyone else the time has now come to govern. It’s supposed to be about the people and not how the SF can grow further.

Higgins5473

Fr_Dougal wrote: »

They had an enormous kick up the backside thanks to SF voters, but I believe SF in government would be disastrous.

It’s looking quite that they will be in some capacity so it’s probably time to discuss why they would be ‘disastrous’ maybe with some context given versus FF/FG.

I will honestly tip my hat to you if you can come up with anything other than IRA terrorism.

Christy42

pimpmyhat wrote: »

I know it will even out later, but it's currently
Fg-2
Ff-2
Sf-27

To be fair a lot of that is SF misjudging the election badly.

They are overblowing quotas like mad in areas that FG or ff will get two in.

Still a big election for them.

Hercule Poirot

tikkahunter wrote: »

Be interesting to see when all these students do qualify into good jobs how they will feel being taxed to the hilt with SF.

You're aware that SF polled highest in every age group bar 65+? They were all students were they?