New Dail / New Taoiseach

is_that_so

storker wrote: »

This would just be a water-down version of FPTP, and would ditch the main advantage of STV: that you end up with seats allocated as closely as possible in the same proportion as vote share.

What's so wrong with STV all of a sudden anyway?

It's just another phase of the cycle of people being dismayed that voters didn't separate the three parties and vexed that a preferred change of government may not come out it. They imagine FPTP would address that, with this result it really wouldn't either.

Johnboy1951

is_that_so wrote: »

It's just another phase of the cycle of people being dismayed that voters didn't separate the three parties and vexed that a preferred change of government may not come out it. They imagine FPTP would address that, with this result it really wouldn't either.

Nothing at all to do with what your imagination has produced.

Johnboy1951

storker wrote: »

This would just be a water-down version of FPTP, and would ditch the main advantage of STV: that you end up with seats allocated as closely as possible in the same proportion as vote share.

What's so wrong with STV all of a sudden anyway?

Nobody said there was anything wrong with STV ....... did you read that somewhere?

It was presented with the hope that a comparison could be made between the two and advantages/disadvantages of each discussed.

Obviously this is not the place to present such discussion topics, going on the majority of posts in response.

Sam Russell

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

I find it interesting that you do not see this as a second vote, yet when I proposed that all preferences be taken into account you see that as multiple votes.

Well, if a vote applies to more than one candidate, it is more than one vote.

Really? That is the best you have to offer?
That you want to question my personal motives rather than discuss the comparative merits of each is sufficient for me to stop here.

Sorry if you take this other than a light hearted dig.

You may be testing the ideas behind STV, but I find your approach to be difficult to understand. The fact that the leading parties' number of seats mirrors their 1st pref vote is remarkable and is an argument for its democratic credentials.

Remember, we vote for candidates, not parties.

seamus

The numbers at the heart of STV are pretty simple.

You have X amount of voters and Y amount of seats. Thus, in order to be elected, a candidate needs to have x/y votes.

If every voter in the constituency gives a preference to every candidate and doesn't spoilt their vote, then the outcome is perfect. The candidates who occupy the seats will be the candidates that the voters most prefer to represent them. Every person's vote has been allocated to someone, nobody is unrepresented.

One could argue that you might be sub-optimally represented because your vote was allocated to a less-preferred candidate. But represented nonetheless. Other systems leave people unrepresented.

Of course, there are always spoiled votes and votes with a single preference. But that doesn't mean no representation. A spoiled vote is the same as not voting; "I am happy with whatever the electorate chooses". Likewise a ballot without full preferences is stating, "Whatever happens after my preferences are exhausted, is fine by me".

zimmermania

Getting back on track,can anyone tell me why Lady Lou would want to go into government with FF or FG when SF say they have little in common with both parties?,is she just playing a game,hoping they would talk to her? and when the talks would break down Lady Lou would come out and say she could not betray her supporters by entering into a arrangement with the right wing parties who were not prepared to accede to her demands.

It will take a while to sort out a government and the saying "it aint over until the fat lady sings" was never more true.

is_that_so

Johnboy1951 wrote: »

Nothing at all to do with what your imagination has produced.

Another day, another post. One anonymous voter on the interweb imagines they know better than someone else!

Oh, Dear. Mammy won’t be best pleased. SF TDs not paying into the party coffers. How very dare they! https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/sinn-fein-gets-less-from-tds-wages-than-required-982340.html

is_that_so

zimmermania wrote: »

Getting back on track,can anyone tell me why Lady Lou would want to go into government with FF or FG when SF say they have little in common with both parties?,is she just playing a game,hoping they would talk to her? and when the talks would break down Lady Lou would come out and say she could not betray her supporters by entering into a arrangement with the right wing parties who were not prepared to accede to her demands.

It will take a while to sort out a government and the saying "it aint over until the fat lady sings" was never more true.

It is about giving the right impression. The options are very limited and diminishing in likelihood - a cobbled left thing propped up by FF, a straight coalition between FF and SF and that grand coalition/alliance FF might beg FG for. The more likely option as we stand is Round 2 and MLM being all stateswomanlike in the face of the "undemocratic" FF & FG will be a core feature of their next campaign.

Stewball

Ged Nash ruling himself out of the leadership race this morning.

PatrickSmithUS

Howlin not running for Ceann Comhairle is costing them an easy additional seat in the next election.

George Lawlor would romp home in Wexford without Howling in the race.

James Brown

They would be nuts to have Kelly as the new leader. He's mouthy and immature.

sdanseo

Sleeper12 wrote: »

He can refuse to dissolve the Dail. Brian Lenihan senior famously called the president to ask him not to dissolve the Dail. If he feels there is a better option he could refuse. I think if Leo went to the president in the next few weeks the president can refuse & suggest that they try harder. Obviously eventually if no government is formed the president would agree to an election.
I think I'm correct in the above. Happy to be corrected

Spot on.

blanch152

Deleted User wrote: »

Oh, Dear. Mammy won’t be best pleased. SF TDs not paying into the party coffers. How very dare they! https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/sinn-fein-gets-less-from-tds-wages-than-required-982340.html

Interesting name on the list of those not paying is John Brady.

As I understand it he lives in a council house despite raking in over 100k in salary and expenses. This was defended at the tie. By the usual group of supporters on the basis that he was on a lot less because he was contributing to the party.

Seems that wa a white lie.

Dyr

Deleted User wrote: »

Oh, Dear. Mammy won’t be best pleased. SF TDs not paying into the party coffers. How very dare they! https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/ireland/sinn-fein-gets-less-from-tds-wages-than-required-982340.html

It's a stupid policy, nothing more than a PR stunt that keeps biting them on the arse, as stupid as the stunt where they claimed that they were on the AIW and then got caught (oops Dessie) taking their full wage.

A few years back one of their party staff actually called in his union because he rightfully claimed that his employer was trying to strong arm a portion of his wages back off him.

FrancieBrady

Seems 42% want MLMD as Taoiseach.


https://twitter.com/caulmick/status/1230016828967092231?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1230016828967092231&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058045382%26page%3D90

is_that_so

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seems 42% want MLMD as Taoiseach.


https://twitter.com/caulmick/status/1230016828967092231?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1230016828967092231&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058045382%26page%3D90

Nearly 50% of the Dail do not!

Salary Negotiator

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seems 42% want MLMD as Taoiseach.


https://twitter.com/caulmick/status/1230016828967092231?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1230016828967092231&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058045382%26page%3D90

Shows that Varadkar is doing the right thing by aiming to go into opposition.

blanch152

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Seems 42% want MLMD as Taoiseach.


https://twitter.com/caulmick/status/1230016828967092231?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1230016828967092231&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.boards.ie%2Fvbulletin%2Fshowthread.php%3Ft%3D2058045382%26page%3D90

Let them have her.

She has the numbers, there are 86 non-FF, non-FG TDs in the Dail. Her negotiating skills should be able to pull a government together.

FrancieBrady

Salary Negotiator wrote: »

Shows that Varadkar is doing the right thing by aiming to go into opposition.

Based on that poll is Varadkar (not to mention Martin) doing anything 'right'?

ednwireland

blanch152 wrote: »

Let them have her.

She has the numbers, there are 86 non-FF, non-FG TDs in the Dail. Her negotiating skills should be able to pull a government together.

this, get on with it

celt262

ednwireland wrote: »

this, get on with it

Yes I voted for change.

LuckyLloyd

blanch152 wrote: »

Let them have her.

She has the numbers, there are 86 non-FF, non-FG TDs in the Dail. Her negotiating skills should be able to pull a government together.

FG and FF can continue being salty and refusing to negotiate an equal partnership and we’ll go back to the electorate to sort it out. SF don’t appear to have much to fear there.

blanch152

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

FG and FF can continue being salty and refusing to negotiate an equal partnership and we’ll go back to the electorate to sort it out. SF don’t appear to have much to fear there.

Why would we vote again? Mary-Lou has the numbers, do it. The people voted for change, and if Mary-Lou isn't up to delivering it, let them vote for someone else to do it.

FrancieBrady

blanch152 wrote: »

Why would we vote again? Mary-Lou has the numbers, do it. The people voted for change, and if Mary-Lou isn't up to delivering it, let them vote for someone else to do it.

That's the same thing as saying 'vote again'.

LuckyLloyd

blanch152 wrote: »

Why would we vote again? Mary-Lou has the numbers, do it. The people voted for change, and if Mary-Lou isn't up to delivering it, let them vote for someone else to do it.

Yeah yeah, you know that isn’t true but whatever.

Two of FFG and SF need to do a deal, with help from at least one smaller party. Otherwise we’re back at the polls.

That’s the reality and you know it, as much as I enjoy your displeasure at the situation.

Chips Lovell

There's a lot of haggling left to be done but I suspect we're heading towards a minority government and the route to that may lie in at least one of the big three parties abstaining on a vote for Taoiseach.

Mearings

If SF assume power who will play the part of Dominic Cummings?

blanch152

LuckyLloyd wrote: »

Yeah yeah, you know that isn’t true but whatever.

Two of FFG and SF need to do a deal, with help from at least one smaller party. Otherwise we’re back at the polls.

That’s the reality and you know it, as much as I enjoy your displeasure at the situation.

We don't need another election, Mary-Lou just needs to get on with delivering the change she promised.

The numbers are there for her, we have been through this already. Now that the rural independents want to do a deal, there is no issue.

ddarcy

blanch152 wrote: »

We don't need another election, Mary-Lou just needs to get on with delivering the change she promised.

The numbers are there for her, we have been through this already. Now that the rural independents want to do a deal, there is no issue.

Except the numbers aren’t there and you well know it. A stable government needs to be formed and inherently that is not possible with loads of independents (a lot of whom are former FF and FG TDs). So it’s either FF-SF, FF-FG or SF-FG plus another smaller party (really has to be the greens). Or another election and FF and FG crying about the electorate being wrong won’t help them.

MLM has nothing to lose by trying to form a government. It makes FF and FG look even worse. And quite frankly SF policies are a bit nuts, so the former two big parties hold their nose and go into coalition or risk losing more seats and being given the same option again of them going into coalition.