New Dail / New Taoiseach

road_high

ddarcy wrote: »

Except the numbers aren’t there and you well know it. A stable government needs to be formed and inherently that is not possible with loads of independents (a lot of whom are former FF and FG TDs). So it’s either FF-SF, FF-FG or SF-FG plus another smaller party (really has to be the greens). Or another election and FF and FG crying about the electorate being wrong won’t help them.

MLM has nothing to lose by trying to form a government. It makes FF and FG look even worse. And quite frankly SF policies are a bit nuts, so the former two big parties hold their nose and go into coalition or risk losing more seats and being given the same option again of them going into coalition.

I think in all this SF reticence and game playing some are losing sight of what an election's aim actually is- electing a government to govern. The easy part is actually the governemnt formation- it's the getting in there and delivering on impossible promises that will be the real test. From a SF/others frontbench of extremely limted abilities and experience.
MLM has everything lo lose in forming a governemnt as there's no where to hide anymore. No blaming "the men" as she does daily and gets away with. No blaming FF or FG. It'll all be on her and co from here on in.

PatrickSmithUS

Bowie wrote: »

They would be nuts to have Kelly as the new leader. He's mouthy and immature.

That looks like how they're going though.



O'Riordain, though he loves himself, always come across as extremely ethical in most things he does (Paddy Jackson tweeting aside). If Labour have any hope of appealing to young voters and the vital Dublin based electorate then they have no option but to pick him.

subpar

If you had a problem , who who you rather see come into the room to help . Whilst O'Riordan would talk and listen nicely . Kelly would fix it . Thats the essential difference and thats what Labour needs .

blanch152

ddarcy wrote: »

Except the numbers aren’t there and you well know it. A stable government needs to be formed and inherently that is not possible with loads of independents (a lot of whom are former FF and FG TDs). So it’s either FF-SF, FF-FG or SF-FG plus another smaller party (really has to be the greens). Or another election and FF and FG crying about the electorate being wrong won’t help them.

MLM has nothing to lose by trying to form a government. It makes FF and FG look even worse. And quite frankly SF policies are a bit nuts, so the former two big parties hold their nose and go into coalition or risk losing more seats and being given the same option again of them going into coalition.

The numbers are there, up to 86 non-FF, non-FG votes available to Sinn Fein.

Fine Gael managed to pull a government together in 2016 from a similar position, others did it in the 1980s with more precarious numbers, are you suggesting that Mary-Lou is less of a politician than Enda Kenny, CJH or Garrett?

topmanamillion

The Tetrarch wrote: »

Perhaps Sinn Fein might recognise reality.
They do not recognise Northern Ireland or Ireland.

From the Sinn Fein mainfesto

Political unionism has lost its electoral majority in four consecutive elections and the exit poll conducted across the 26 counties in the wake of the Local Government and European elections in 2019 showed a huge majority in support of Irish Unity.

Demographic trends suggest a nationalist voting majority in the north is close.
shifts in population and identity demographics in the North in recent decades.
in the event of Unity, the North would automatically
In the North, Tory-imposed austerity has placed
Continued access to citizens in North to the
currently carried out by the HSE in the South and the NHS in the North
based on the model in the North of Ireland
supporting the LGBTQI community North and South
In the North, we have
linking larger cities North and South
authorities in the North
coastal counties in the North of Ireland
people living in the North

Not a fan of SF but this is surely consistent with a party whose primary goal is reunification.
Essentially the nation they represent doesn't exist yet. Not in a political sense anyway.
If you're a hard line republican from the anti treaty side then both the North and Republic are imposters and merely stop gap solutions.

Sam Russell

Mearings wrote: »

If SF assume power who will play the part of Dominic Cummings?

That is what is worrying. Who will be these nameless backroom group who will decide the direction of the SF led gov? They have not gone away, you know.

Sam Russell

topmanamillion wrote: »

Not a fan of SF but this is surely consistent with a party whose primary goal is reunification.
Essentially the nation they represent doesn't exist yet. Not in a political sense anyway.
If you're a hard line republican from the anti treaty side then both the North and Republic are imposters and merely stop gap solutions.

After nearly a century?

It was a shame that those that drafted the agreement did not agree a single name for it. 'The Good Friday Agreement' or 'The Belfast Agreement'

They should also have got all sides to agree names for the various entities. Ireland, Northern Ireland, Great Britain - meaning the island of GB including small islands, but not including NI, The UK - meaning NI plus GB, etc. etc. All media should be required to use these terms exclusively.

A missed opportunity.

seamus

Chips Lovell wrote: »

There's a lot of haggling left to be done but I suspect we're heading towards a minority government and the route to that may lie in at least one of the big three parties abstaining on a vote for Taoiseach.

I know FG are relishing the benches, but there's a lot to be said for Leo doing a "white knight" on this "for the good of the country", and giving SF the opportunity to govern as a minority.

FG will come out of this looking good either way - if SF make a mess, FG can pull the plug. If SF do well, FG can say they enabled it while FF stood idly by.

I'm not sure the same can be said for FF because they're the largest party. A stint as the C&S partner again, could be used against them as an accusation that they're too cowardly to go into coalition with SF. The same can't really be said of FG because we know SF won't go into coalition with FG anyway.

Difficult poll out of NI yesterday which indicated just 30% support for a United Ireland. If SF decide to bang that drum while they're in power they could be accused of wasting time and resources on a white elephant, like the Bertie Bowl.

Chips Lovell

I'm not sure we'll see any Confidence & Supply arrangements this time around. While it worked last time from a practical perspective by giving us a stable government for longer than anyone expected, it didn't work from a PR perspective. In the eyes of many voters, it was no different to coalition. As a result, parties will just see it as having none of the benefits and all of the downsides of going into a coalition.

Minority governments can have more longevity than you'd expect. The sword will only fall if your opponents think they can gain from a new election. I think it'll be at least a year, possibly two, before anyone in the Dail will brave going to the polls again.

jimmycrackcorm

seamus wrote: »

I know FG are relishing the benches, but there's a lot to be said for Leo doing a "white knight" on this "for the good of the country", and giving SF the opportunity to govern as a minority.

FG will come out of this looking good either way - if SF make a mess, FG can pull the plug. If SF do well, FG can say they enabled it while FF stood idly by.

.

That's the equivalent of saying Sinn Fein should just give the DUP a free hand to govern in the North.

topmanamillion

Sam Russell wrote: »

After nearly a century?

It was a shame that those that drafted the agreement did not agree a single name for it. 'The Good Friday Agreement' or 'The Belfast Agreement'

They should also have got all sides to agree names for the various entities. Ireland, Northern Ireland, Great Britain - meaning the island of GB including small islands, but not including NI, The UK - meaning NI plus GB, etc. etc. All media should be required to use these terms exclusively.

A missed opportunity.

There was 800 years of English/British rule so 100 years is really only a blink of an eye compared to that.
Also, The Republic of Ireland has been in existence for 81 years since the Republic of Ireland act of 1949.

machaseh

As much as I'd like to see it, I dont see SF leading a majority coalition without FF.

The most sensible solution would be a minority coalition with SF , all the leftwing parties and then an agreement with FF/leftwing indepeendents.

Salary Negotiator

topmanamillion wrote: »

There was 800 years of English/British rule so 100 years is really only a blink of an eye compared to that.
Also, The Republic of Ireland has been in existence for 81 years since the Republic of Ireland act of 1949.

71.

Sam Russell

topmanamillion wrote: »

There was 800 years of English/British rule so 100 years is really only a blink of an eye compared to that.
Also, The Republic of Ireland has been in existence for 81 years since the Republic of Ireland act of 1949.

I do not think there any living memories of the 800 years, and very few of the 100 years, and not may of the 71 years either.

road_high

machaseh wrote: »

As much as I'd like to see it, I dont see SF leading a majority coalition without FF.

The most sensible solution would be a minority coalition with SF , all the leftwing parties and then an agreement with FF/leftwing indepeendents.

Well then the electorate have to seriously question what on Earth they are electing all these people to the Dáil for? For decades now there’s been a never ending screen of opposition these people could hide behind. Now the ff FG vote has been hollowed out to such an extent- their purpose must be taken into sharp review and the excuses redundant. There’s a clear and healthy majority outside of FG and ff. They must get on with it now

kah22

From where I’m sitting, down here in the North the present situation really is quite interesting

It seems to me that FG and FF are both right of centre, FG more so.

SF policies are pretty left, but I wonder if the Party members are as left as the leadership, Ireland is, after all a conservative country, in my opinion anyway and SF wants their bums on cabinet seats.

FF, if my history serves me right, was born out of the old IRA and yet they are insisting SF is not fit for government because of their past.

Take a look at SF the Adams McGuinness are gone, the Mary Lou’s, the Pearse Doherty’s and the Michelle O’Niels are firmly in the driving seat. It does seem hypocritical that both FG and FF were pushing SF into a coalition with the DUP and them an extreme right wing party

Watching Prime Time last night and the Ballroom of Romance brought back memories of my own dancing days, 50 years ago, when we all lined upon one side of the hall and the girls the other side. I remember quite well my self and others eyeing a girl and venturing across that floor only to see the girl we were aiming for turn her head and that long walk back, even worse was when some other fellow got there first and worst of all her saying no - that long walk back

It would be interesting to know who is crossing the floor at the moment, who is been wooded by who. More interesting to know how will be going home together. The dancing has just started and like the old dance hall everyone wants to walk away with a prize on their arm

My bet SF, FF and the Green’s, what’s yours

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Well then the electorate have to seriously question what on Earth they are electing all these people to the Dáil for? For decades now there’s been a never ending screen of opposition these people could hide behind. Now the ff FG vote has been hollowed out to such an extent- their purpose must be taken into sharp review and the excuses redundant. There’s a clear and healthy majority outside of FG and ff. They must get on with it now

Ridiculous harumphing going on here.

Nobody should be going into government with anybody unless they can come up with a compatible programme for government.

Parties doing that for the comfy seats is what has been wrong with this country.

It makes a mockery of government.

road_high

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Ridiculous harumphing going on here.

Nobody should be going into government with anybody unless they can come up with a compatible programme for government.

Parties doing that for the comfy seats is what has been wrong with this country.

It makes a mockery of government.

Sf have been at it since time immorial. Their time has now come - but all we get of course is lectures about governance and others not holding their hands. Pathetic carry on- if this is the attempts at government formation well all those change seekers are in a for a big shock

FrancieBrady

road_high wrote: »

Sf have been at it since time immorial. Their time has now come - but all we get of course is lectures governance and others not holding their hands. Pathetic carry on- if this is the attempts at government formation well all those change seekers are in a for a big shock

Nobody said that they could form a government from everyone but FF/FG.

All anyone (I heard) said was that they 'would try to' and would prefer a government without FF/FG.

mickdw

blanch152 wrote: »

are you suggesting that Mary-Lou is less of a politician than Enda Kenny, CJH or Garrett?

I would certainly suggest that yes she most certainly is less of a politician than Haughey, Fitzgerald and Enda Kenny.
Not only that but she is a politician at the helm of a tainted party that nobody wants to touch so to suggest the numbers are there for a majority is silly.

Robert McGrath

blanch152 wrote: »

Let them have her.

She has the numbers, there are 86 non-FF, non-FG TDs in the Dail. Her negotiating skills should be able to pull a government together.

Have we ever seen any evidence that MLM has any negotiating skills? Genuine question

Brussels Sprout

Let's look at the myth of the "There's 86 non-FF/FG TDs for SF to do business with". This appears to be the new slogan for the slapped arse brigade of FF/FG TDs and their supporters who are not dealing with their party’s new, lower political standing in a healthy manner.

Although mathematically true, this collapses under the smallest bit of scrutiny.

Labour Party (6 TDs). Have categorically said they won’t go into government as their focus is on surviving as a party and rebuilding. Down to 80 straight away.

Carol Nolan & Peader Tobín: lost the whip in SF over the abortion votes and had to leave the party. Tobín in particular launched a scathing attacked of the party during the GE campaign. Not a hope they’ll be supporting MLM.

Michael Collins, Michael & Danny Healy-Rae, Mattie McGrath, Noel Grealish & Verona Murphy. All ex FF/FG/PD who on average are further to the right of FF/FG. Not a hope of cutting a deal that would keep this lot, the Greens and SOL-PBP all happy. That’s before you look at the fact that the Healy-Raes and McGrath are only interested in ever supporting their ancestral home of FF.

That blows the possibility of a majority out of the water.

Any minority would need the acquiescence of FF or FG in a confidence & supply arrangement. Not a hope of either of them going down that route after seeing how it worked out for FF.

realdanbreen

Another SF TD out today apologising for tweets she sent about Nazis and Jews! Mammy seems to have no control over her TD's!

Bishop of hope

blanch152 wrote: »

The numbers are there, up to 86 non-FF, non-FG votes available to Sinn Fein.

Fine Gael managed to pull a government together in 2016 from a similar position, others did it in the 1980s with more precarious numbers, are you suggesting that Mary-Lou is less of a politician than Enda Kenny, CJH or Garrett?

The numbers aren't there in groups for her and that's that.
Besides the fact that her own party has promised the impossible, how could she possibly afford the cost of the demands of the independents.
Even Haughley, Fitzgerald or Kenny couldn't come up with a Govt out of what she is facing, as she herself doesent have the numbers to start with that they had.

road_high

Bishop of hope wrote: »

The numbers aren't there in groups for her and that's that.
Besides the fact that her own party has promised the impossible, how could she possibly afford the cost of the demands of the independents.
Even Haughley, Fitzgerald or Kenny couldn't come up with a Govt out of what she is facing, as she herself doesent have the numbers to start with that they had.

Just because she promised a load of undeliverable rubbish, doesn’t mean her and her party get off Scott free absconding from those promises. Those people had to form governments in the past in not too dissimilar numbers to sf. Just because they have a glaring lack of negotiating ability doesn’t mean they don’t have to on this occasion. There are 87 Tds outside of ff or FG elected to the Dáil in change of various guises. Surely it’s not beyond Mary lou to master up a government from these?

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

The numbers aren't there in groups for her and that's that.
Besides the fact that her own party has promised the impossible, how could she possibly afford the cost of the demands of the independents.
Even Haughley, Fitzgerald or Kenny couldn't come up with a Govt out of what she is facing, as she herself doesent have the numbers to start with that they had.

It's almost as if people have been briefed to keep this up as some kind of taunt, as there seems to be no critical thought behind it.

Is it FG's new strategy, one wonders?

Quin_Dub

Brussels Sprout wrote: »

Let's look at the myth of the "There's 86 non-FF/FG TDs for SF to do business with". This appears to be the new slogan for the slapped arse brigade of FF/FG TDs and their supporters who are not dealing with their party’s new, lower political standing in a healthy manner.

Although mathematically true, this collapses under the smallest bit of scrutiny.

Labour Party (6 TDs). Have categorically said they won’t go into government as their focus is on surviving as a party and rebuilding. Down to 80 straight away.

Carol Nolan & Peader Tobín: lost the whip in SF over the abortion votes and had to leave the party. Tobín in particular launched a scathing attacked of the party during the GE campaign. Not a hope they’ll be supporting MLM.

Michael Collins, Michael & Danny Healy-Rae, Mattie McGrath, Noel Grealish & Verona Murphy. All ex FF/FG/PD who on average are further to the right of FF/FG. Not a hope of cutting a deal that would keep this lot, the Greens and SOL-PBP all happy. That’s before you look at the fact that the Healy-Raes and McGrath are only interested in ever supporting their ancestral home of FF.

That blows the possibility of a majority out of the water.

Any minority would need the acquiescence of FF or FG in a confidence & supply arrangement. Not a hope of either of them going down that route after seeing how it worked out for FF.

If MLM came to the table with a minority government with somewhere in the low 70's seats they'd get it done..No requirement for a formal C&S deal.

FF & FG won't vote against it as they don't want another election in the short term.

That would be a government that would be safe for at least 12 to 18 months , which should give them time to prove their worth.

And again , FF/FG would only attempt a Vote of No Confidence if they thought they could win the election.. So if SF et al are doing what people want they are safe.

Yes , they might lose a few individual votes on legislation , but again if that legislation is what a majority actually want then if FF or FG are the cause of those losses and people turn even further against them, that gives SF the chance to call an election and win a stronger majority.

It's time for SF to actually step up and put forward a proposal.

They can't continue to refuse to play until they achieve the perfect Utopian ideal..It's now their ball.

Get in there and get to work and let's see if they can actually do all the great stuff they claim..

Bishop of hope

road_high wrote: »

Just because she promised a load of undeliverable rubbish, doesn’t mean her and her party get off Scott free absconding from those promises. Those people had to form governments in the past in not too dissimilar numbers to sf. Just because they have a glaring lack of negotiating ability doesn’t mean they don’t have to on this occasion. There are 87 Tds outside of ff or FG elected to the Dáil in change of various guises. Surely it’s not beyond Mary lou to master up a government from these?

They all have the same numbers available to them, so your post doesent make sense really.

If its a battle of left or right then with FF and FG and like minded independents then that's where the real majority lies.

road_high

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If MLM came to the table with a minority government with somewhere in the low 70's seats they'd get it done..No requirement for a formal C&S deal.

FF & FG won't vote against it as they don't want another election in the short term.

That would be a government that would be safe for at least 12 to 18 months , which should give them time to prove their worth.

And again , FF/FG would only attempt a Vote of No Confidence if they thought they could win the election.. So if SF et al are doing what people want they are safe.

Yes , they might lose a few individual votes on legislation , but again if that legislation is what a majority actually want then if FF or FG are the cause of those losses and people turn even further against them, that gives SF the chance to call an election and win a stronger majority.

It's time for SF to actually step up and put forward a proposal.

They can't continue to refuse to play until they achieve the perfect Utopian ideal..It's now their ball.

Get in there and get to work and let's see if they can actually do all the great stuff they claim..

Sadly you’ve stumbled on the big issue here -“get in and deliver the stuff they claimed”. This is the key to the obvious reticence, excuses and constant putting back in ff or FG. That’s why you have MLM dancing and singing like an idiot on tv instead of the real work. Very little of the slurry that was the SF election manifesto is remotely deliverable. They know this. This is the oppositions ace card and they’d be very foolish to let sf off the hook now. The only way you show SF up for what they are is making sure they govern, no weaselling out of it and show us the “change” they sold

Bishop of hope

Quin_Dub wrote: »

If MLM came to the table with a minority government with somewhere in the low 70's seats they'd get it done..No requirement for a formal C&S deal.

FF & FG won't vote against it as they don't want another election in the short term.

That would be a government that would be safe for at least 12 to 18 months , which should give them time to prove their worth.

And again , FF/FG would only attempt a Vote of No Confidence if they thought they could win the election.. So if SF et al are doing what people want they are safe.

Yes , they might lose a few individual votes on legislation , but again if that legislation is what a majority actually want then if FF or FG are the cause of those losses and people turn even further against them, that gives SF the chance to call an election and win a stronger majority.

It's time for SF to actually step up and put forward a proposal.

They can't continue to refuse to play until they achieve the perfect Utopian ideal..It's now their ball.

Get in there and get to work and let's see if they can actually do all the great stuff they claim..

Sour grapes post really. This isn't a reality that's going to happen and its not SF's fault that it won't.
They won't get support from sol/pbp, the Labour Party or the sds most likely.
The best chance of forming a Govt, probably the only one is for two of the three biggies to come together, and since neither FG or FF will countenance doing business with SF then it's up to them to do something that is an alternative.