Next Irish Government & formation

Muahahaha

What parties do you see leading the next government and what is your most preferred option?


Heres the viable possibilities:-

FF-FG Grand Coalition
Would likely involve the Taoiseachs position being divided between Varadkar and Martin over the governments term. FF were offered this in 2016 but refused it.

FF-SF
Will be close to 80 seats but might need outside support. Despite Michael Martins promises not to entertain SF after the election the political sands have shifted and Michael is clearly shifting with them. Martin does not want the ignominy of being the first FF leader not to be Taoiseach so a FF-SF coalition is a strong possibility

FG-SF
Viable but highly unlikely as Leo has stated he just wont consider it. Even if he did it would be way too hard a sell to FG members and would divide the party. This option would also need support from independents or smaller parties

Fianna Fail, Soc Dems, Labour, Greens & Independents
Will struggle to make the numbers up to 80 so would need support from elsewhere in the Dail to pass legislation. With so many independents it would be a pretty unstable government. Least likely option of them all.

In 2016 it took 70 days to form the new government so we've a fair number of weeks of negotiations
bickering ahead of us to form the next government

So with the options on the table what is your preference? Personally feel that a FG-SF government would be best for the country with FG steering the economy and SF bringing fresh faces and ideas to housing and health. Cant see it happening though. More likely is something involving Fianna Fail as they're the biggest party but the potential Fianna Fail front bench is pretty dire as outlined in this thread here


Will add a poll, vote for your preference coalition rather than what you think we will end up with

seannash

Can SF and absolutely everyone else who isn't FG or FF not join to form a coalition?

rob316

seannash wrote: »

Can SF and absolutely everyone else who isn't FG or FF not join to form a coalition?

You'd need pretty much every Independent to make up the numbers. It wouldn't last a month.

FF/SF is the only option, but I couldn't see it lasting long either.

Fr_Dougal

seannash wrote: »

Can SF and absolutely everyone else who isn't FG or FF not join to form a coalition?

Labour have already said that they won’t go into government with SF.

Zetor19

The best case now is every one tells sf to fcuk off and hope by the time the new election comes we the people have come to our senses. We gave the big 2 a fright but now we have frightened ourselves.

rob316

Zetor19 wrote: »

The best case now is every one tells sf to fcuk off and hope by the time the new election comes we the people have come to our senses. We gave the big 2 a fright but now we have frightened ourselves.

There is absolutely no mandate for FG to govern, none. Its up to FF and SF its the only option.

Gamb!t

rob316 wrote: »

There is absolutely no mandate for FG to govern, none. Its up to FF and SF its the only option.

FF,the turd(s) that wont flush from running the country.

Feisar

rob316 wrote: »

There is absolutely no mandate for FG to govern, none. Its up to FF and SF its the only option.

Do FG not have roughly as much of a mandate as the others?

James Brown

SF, SD, PBP, Greens etc.

rafatoni

Matt Barrett wrote: »

SF, SD, PBP, Greens etc.

Can FF not make up a coalition with SD, PBP, Greens etc in that case? Presume they will have more TD's by the end of play.

blanch152

Matt Barrett wrote: »

SF, SD, PBP, Greens etc.

Not enough numbers, just do the maths.

ricero

rafatoni wrote: »

Can FF not make up a coalition with SD, PBP, Greens etc in that case? Presume they will have more TD's by the end of play.

PBP refuse to govern with FF or FG

One eyed Jack

Muahahaha wrote: »

FF-FG Grand Coalition
Would likely involve the Taoiseachs position being divided between Varadkar and Martin over the governments term. FF were offered this in 2016 but refused it.

This would be my preferred option anyway, but whether it comes to fruition or not is something still very much open to debate.

CIARAN_BOYLE

rafatoni wrote: »

Can FF not make up a coalition with SD, PBP, Greens etc in that case? Presume they will have more TD's by the end of play.

You would need basically all the independents.

I'm not sure what the latest seat predictions are but ff will finish somewhere between 39 and 44 seats. Sf on 36/37 and FG on 36/39.

You need 80 to run the country. You wont get all the independents and pbf sd labour greens no matter who you are.

You need two of sf/ff/fg possibly with some extra support from smaller parties or independents to add some stability.

jmayo

FF, SF, Greens = 41+37+11 = 89

FF, SF, SD = 41+37+6 = 84

These are based on approx. end results for parties.

FG leadership would have huge huge problem selling coalition with SF to membership.
Likewise a huge chunk of membership would go against coalition with FF and would spell end of party.
Expect Leo to fook off to his reward in Europe or even further afield.
All that right on mood music might payoff.
Can't see him having ability or desire to travel around country and rebuild party ala Enda or sit on opposition benches now he has sampled the high life.

FF would not want to do coalition with FG as would spell end of them.
FF has Martin with his last chance saloon, have been out of power for 9 years and will go in with mindset of using it to long term harm SF.

Labour will not want to get subsumbed into SF government as they would be lost in there.


Greens are led by a moron who will willingly go in thinking about saving the planet.

SD might go in believing they will have fellow socially aware SF in there to help them in their goals.

Muahahaha

One eyed Jack wrote: »

This would be my preferred option anyway, but whether it comes to fruition or not is something still very much open to debate.

They would have to do a lot of soul searching alright. The leaders would do it but the question is could it pass the party membership.