Which Coalition Government would you prefer?

rafatoni

Snow Garden wrote: »

Yates saying FF + FG + a group of rural Independents.

If i was putting my money on it, i would say FF + FG + SD, the rural vote is exactly why FF wont want the greens in there so SD is a way easier sell.

KWAG2019

I want FF and FG in govt together. There is no reason ideologically for that not to happen. The civil war division is obviously irrelevant. Time they got together.

Floppybits

No matter what way the numbers are added up, its a hung parliament and either all parties come together and form a National Government with an all party strategy to tackle the major crises in the country or they go back to the electorate and we have another election.

blanch152

Lochlan Victorious Doctor wrote: »

Sinn Féin (37) + Greens (12) + Social Democrats (6) + Labour (6) + Solidarity-People Before Profit (5) + left-leaning independents (6) = 72 seats.

The "grand coalition of the left" is still 8 seats short. So how do they make up that shortfall?

Rural Independents.

I don't know who you are including in your 6 left-leaning independents but Joan Collins, Carol Nolan, Peadar Toibin, Michael McNamara, Catherine Connolly and Thomas Pringle would be the six I would pick as likely to vote for a grand coalition of the left.

Of the others....

Matt Shanahan is a Waterford hospital candidate, also wants the new university down there. He can be easily bought off.

The Healy-Raes are for sale to anyone. A couple of roads, a bail-out for IT Tralee and you are nearly there with them.

Sean Canney has said he is willing to talk to anyone.

Cathal Berry is willing to support Sinn Fein, a pay rise for the Defence Forces and you have his support.

After that is gets more difficult but if Marian Harkin was to pull the likes of Mattie McGrath, Michael Fitzmaurice, Denis Naughten, Richard O'Donoghue etc together in a rural collection of independents, Mary-Lou could get over the magic numbers with even some to spare.

That leaves Lowry, Grealish, Collins, Murphy outside the numbers but some of their views/history see them as unlikely supporters of a coalition of the Left. Peter Fitzpatrick, is unlikely either.

The real challenge comes after. With FF and FG sitting on the opposition benches, they will slowly roast the coalition of the left. Turning up the heat gradually, referring back to election promises unfulfilled, they could have it turfed out before it has even passed a budget. November election anyone?

Wombatman

Lochlan Victorious Doctor wrote: »

Sinn Féin (37) + Greens (12) + Social Democrats (6) + Labour (6) + Solidarity-People Before Profit (5) + left-leaning independents (6) = 72 seats.

The "grand coalition of the left" is still 8 seats short. So how do they make up that shortfall?

Confidence and Supply agreement.

Wombatman

KWAG2019 wrote: »

I want FF and FG in govt together. There is no reason ideologically for that not to happen. The civil war division is obviously irrelevant. Time they got together.

If this happened they would most likely be decimated in the next election, which could also see the Shinners having an overall majority. Do you think they are prepared to take that chance?

4 or 5 more years of power and expenses might be too hard to resist.

nkl12xtw5goz70

blanch152 wrote: »

Rural Independents.

Fair enough — I take your point that some independents are essentially for sale to the highest bidder, and might be willing to prop up a left coalition if they get enough goodies to keep their constituents happy.

My only point was that there aren't enough bona fide left-wing TDs to form a government. If the "grand coalition of the left" has to be propped up by the likes of the Healy-Raes, etc., how "left" is it really?

I also have my doubts about how long the likes of the Greens and the Social Democrats, parties that pride themselves on their clean image, will tolerate Sinn Fein as a coalition partner. The mask has already slipped with SF's widely publicized "Up the Ra" celebrations, and we know that party has numerous other skeletons in the closet. Coalition partners will have to turn a blind eye to principle to go into government with them, which could seriously affect their support and their future prospects.

Idbatterim

How about FF and FG flip a coin to decide it? let faith decide!

blanch152

Lochlan Victorious Doctor wrote: »

Fair enough — I take your point that some independents are essentially for sale to the highest bidder, and might be willing to prop up a left coalition if they get enough goodies to keep their constituents happy.

My only point was that there aren't enough bona fide left-wing TDs to form a government. If the "grand coalition of the left" has to be propped up by the likes of the Healy-Raes, etc., how "left" is it really?

I also have my doubts about how long the likes of the Greens and the Social Democrats, parties that pride themselves on their clean image, will tolerate Sinn Fein as a coalition partner. The mask has already slipped with SF's widely publicized "Up the Ra" celebrations, and we know that party has numerous other skeletons in the closet. Coalition partners will have to turn a blind eye to principle to go into government with them, which could seriously affect their support and their future prospects.

Isn't that just the problem for the Greens and the Social Democrats.

Go in with Sinn Fein and the mad left and the instability could mean the whole thing comes crashing down in a few months in some scandal over child abuse in Louth or singing about terrorists or some walkout over a mad PBP idea and you lose seats.

Go in with FF and FG, and the electorate will wait and wait and get you for it, even if it takes five years and you lose seats.

How do you get around that conundrum? SF/FF/Greens/Soc Dems gives you cover on both sides.

KWAG2019

Wombatman wrote: »

If this happened they would most likely be decimated in the next election, which could also see the Shinners having an overall majority. Do you think they are prepared to take that chance?

4 or 5 more years of power and expenses might be too hard to resist.

It is a risk: should they recognize they have made a strategic error in not tackling housing and health far more vigorously? Are they ideologically bound not to solve these issues? FG seem so in regard to public housing. That is a failure of leadership and vision. Lashing out at ordinary people for the benefit of landlords has doomed them. FF were among others things, since the Lemass era a pragmatic party.Will that prevail? If FG are going to corner the market on unionism and Toryism as they have they will have a long while as spectators. They will get direction from shadowy financial backers.

I think FFG will fear a SF govt launching an all out building program and being seen to get to grips with the issue. That might be a bigger risk.

JohnnyFlash

KWAG2019 wrote: »

It is a risk: should they recognize they have made a strategic error in not tackling housing and health far more vigorously? Are they ideologically bound not to solve these issues? FG seem so in regard to public housing. That is a failure of leadership and vision. Lashing out at ordinary people for the benefit of landlords has doomed them. FF were among others things, since the Lemass era a pragmatic party.Will that prevail? If FG are going to corner the market on unionism and Toryism as they have they will have a long while as spectators. They will get direction from shadowy financial backers.

I think FFG will fear a SF govt launching an all out building program and being seen to get to grips with the issue. That might be a bigger risk.

SF are terrified of getting caught out having to implement even a fraction of their outrageously stupid manifesto.

All fart and no follow through with those lads and ladies.

Yurt2

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

SF are terrified of getting caught out having to implement even a fraction of their outrageously stupid manifesto.

All fart and no follow through with those lads and ladies.

Was that what you concluded with the cumann at the post-election wake when ye all agreed that FG should head for opposition?

nkl12xtw5goz70

blanch152 wrote: »

Isn't that just the problem for the Greens and the Social Democrats.

Go in with Sinn Fein and the mad left and the instability could mean the whole thing comes crashing down in a few months in some scandal over child abuse in Louth or singing about terrorists or some walkout over a mad PBP idea and you lose seats.

Go in with FF and FG, and the electorate will wait and wait and get you for it, even if it takes five years and you lose seats.

How do you get around that conundrum? SF/FF/Greens/Soc Dems gives you cover on both sides.

I honestly don't know. A game theorist would love the current scenario.

In Ireland, going into government is a huge risk for any smaller party. The Green Party lost all its seats in 2011. Labour lost 30 of its 37 seats in 2016. The Progressive Democrats no longer exist. This will continue to be a feature of Irish politics as the electorate has become accustomed to seeing a GE as an opportunity to punish any and every sitting government — even one that is objectively performing relatively well.

Now, there's the added credibility risk of going into government with Sinn Fein. Who knows what scandal will next engulf that party — but when it happens, it won't just affect SF; it will affect the entire government of which SF may be a part. Others will be tainted by association.

Party leaders are now weighing the short-term benefits of going into power against the long-term repercussions of going into power. A party that is playing the long game will seek safe haven on the opposition benches and let others stick their necks out.

I bet Fine Gael would love to see a SF/FF/Greens/Soc Dems coalition. They will sit back and watch the circus, knowing that they'll be back to do another cleanup job after the next GE.

RandomViewer

Odhinn wrote: »

"grand coalition of the left" hasn't the numbers - they need most of the independents as well.

Most of the Independants are FF/FG who have done something dodgy, Lowry and Naughten are in the FG in all but name.

jimmycrackcorm

Pauliedragon wrote: »

Whichever one can explain to me why a 20 min eye test takes over 2 years on a waiting list.

What waiting list? I got one and glasses within a day using my PRSI free entitlement.

RandomViewer

Lochlan Victorious Doctor wrote: »

I honestly don't know. A game theorist would love the current scenario.

In Ireland, going into government is a huge risk for any smaller party. The Green Party lost all its seats in 2011. Labour lost 30 of its 37 seats in 2016. The Progressive Democrats no longer exist. This will continue to be a feature of Irish politics as the electorate has become accustomed to seeing a GE as an opportunity to punish any and every sitting government — even one that is objectively performing relatively well.

Now, there's the added credibility risk of going into government with Sinn Fein. Who knows what scandal will next engulf that party — but when it happens, it won't just affect SF; it will affect the entire government of which SF may be a part. Others will be tainted by association.

Party leaders are now weighing the short-term benefits of going into power against the long-term repercussions of going into power. A party that is playing the long game will seek safe haven on the opposition benches and let others stick their necks out.

I bet Fine Gael would love to see a SF/FF/Greens/Soc Dems coalition. They will sit back and watch the circus, knowing that they'll be back to do another cleanup job after the next GE.

FG won't come back as quick this time, there is something going to happen in the next year or so and the fall out from that will make them toxic,

Riskymove

jimmycrackcorm wrote: »

What waiting list? I got one and glasses within a day using my PRSI free entitlement.

this has come up a few times, perhaps the original post should be amended to reflect he is not taking about an eyesight test but in fact a test for glaucoma

suicide_circus

i want to see Paul Murphy and Richard Boyd Barrett in government. They've been talking a big game for years, lets see yiz in action lads.

Yurt2

suicide_circus wrote: »

i want to see Paul Murphy and Richard Boyd Barrett in government. They've been talking a big game for years, lets see yiz in action lads.

I'd say Richard Boyd Barrett is actually an alright sort, but Paul Murphy would start a fight with himself in the changing room of Penny's trying on a new pair of jocks.

nkl12xtw5goz70

suicide_circus wrote: »

i want to see Paul Murphy and Richard Boyd Barrett in government. They've been talking a big game for years, lets see yiz in action lads.

Too right. Time for them to put our money where their mouth is.

blanch152

RandomViewer wrote: »

FG won't come back as quick this time, there is something going to happen in the next year or so and the fall out from that will make them toxic,

I doubt that very much. If it is a personal issue related to one or other of their leading figures drop the person. After all, they ended up in government after getting rid of Lowry.

If it is policy, by then they will be long out of government and can blame someone else.

jmayo

Odhinn wrote: »

"grand coalition of the left" hasn't the numbers - they need most of the independents as well.

And what would be wrong with that.
After all a cabinet with Eamon Ryan and Danny Healy Rae arguing about God making the weather and reintroduction of wolves would be priceless in terms of TV time.
Oireachtas TV would be major world wide.

Also major plus point would be watching all the ones that look down their noses at the Healy Raes cr** themselves with rage.

On a more serious note Leo would be lynched within FG if he went in with either SF or FF.
Likewise Michael is on slippery ground and this is his last chance.

And there may be a mood in both FF and FG to just let Mary Lou form a minority government with likes of SD, PBP, Greens, etc.
FF and FG want SF to be the ones responsible for health and housing no matter what, even if in a coalition.

Then let them start implementing their lavish plans and when taxes skyrocket pull the plug having shown them all up for the bluffers they are.

blanch152

jmayo wrote: »

And what would be wrong with that.
After all a cabinet with Eamon Ryan and Danny Healy Rae arguing about God making the weather and reintroduction of wolves would be priceless in terms of TV time.
Oireachtas TV would be major world wide.

Also major plus point would be watching all the ones that look down their noses at the Healy Raes cr** themselves with rage.

On a more serious note Leo would be lynched within FG if he went in with either SF or FF.
Likewise Michael is on slippery ground and this is his last chance.

And there may be a mood in both FF and FG to just let Mary Lou form a minority government with likes of SD, PBP, Greens, etc.
Those parties want SF to be the ones responsible for health and housing no matter what, even if in a coalition.

Then let them start implementing their lavish plans and when taxes skyrocket pull the plug having shown them all up for the bluffers they are.

If SF get to 70, one or other may abstain on the nomination for Taoiseach citing the "new politics" we were told about in 2016, but promising to hold them to account for every single issue. It might not be pretty, but it would be fun.

TheBoyConor

Pauliedragon wrote: »

Whichever one can explain to me why a 20 min eye test takes over 2 years on a waiting list.

maybe one of them could explain to you that you could also just go to any opticians like a normal person and have it done in 15 minutes.

RandomViewer

blanch152 wrote: »

I doubt that very much. If it is a personal issue related to one or other of their leading figures drop the person. After all, they ended up in government after getting rid of Lowry.

If it is policy, by then they will be long out of government and can blame someone else.

If what I heard is true, there was a cover up, basically the truth would be too damaging to party so blind eye was turned to something very ,very serious that happened 20 something years ago. It may be why FG made sure they lost the election.

Wombatman

Looks like FF SF off the table.

https://www.rte.ie/news/politics/2020/0213/1114963-sinn-fein-talks/