FG to just do nothing for the next 5 years.

James Brown

Mortelaro wrote: »

It's not really
They're at the last resort now,not the middle resort or the first resort
It's as per what they said
That's what they are doing

Last resort suggests there were other 'resorts' or avenues for forming government and FG had exhausted them. That is not the case. It was opposition or FF. Initially it was opposition now they chose FF instead. That's the facts.

Pure baloney FG being the reluctant partner of FF. Laughable and false.

PommieBast

FrancieBrady wrote: »

They all do.

Haven't received any from anyone else since the election, but have had three from PBP.

FrancieBrady

PommieBast wrote: »

Haven't received any from anyone else since the election, but have had three from PBP.

Algorithm isn't targeting you. I get them from most of them. Is there a point to this btw?

James Brown

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Algorithm isn't targeting you. I get them from most of them. Is there a point to this btw?

Commending PBP on their social media marketing skills most likely. A lot to be said for such a small party utilising such a resource so well.

Mortelaro

Bowie wrote: »

Last resort suggests there were other 'resorts' or avenues for forming government and FG had exhausted them. That is not the case. It was opposition or FF. Initially it was opposition now they chose FF instead. That's the facts.

Pure baloney FG being the reluctant partner of FF. Laughable and false.

No
Its actually simple enough and very transparent
Fine Gael would prefer to have been first like last time not third
They assumed that FF and SF would do business (so did I)
In other words that MM would relent his opposition to that
I think that marriage is what Leo was relishing or any opposition to it
That didn't happen of course and won't this term but the numbers were and are there for it
You seem to be discounting the fact that FG wanted to see first if FF and SF would dance or any other combination
FF needed either SF or FG
FG had the luxury of relishing opposition or as a last resort if no other match could happen go in with FF and the smaller parties
Its understandable that you'd discount all that, being a Sinn Fein supporter
But it doesn't change the situation

FrancieBrady

Mortelaro wrote: »

No
Its actually simple enough and very transparent
Fine Gael would prefer to have been first like last time not third
They assumed that FF and SF would do business (so did I)
In other words that MM would relent his opposition to that
I think that marriage is what Leo was relishing or any opposition to it
That didn't happen of course and won't this term but the numbers were and are there for it
You seem to be discounting the fact that FG wanted to see first if FF and SF would dance or any other combination
FF needed either SF or FG
FG had the luxury of relishing opposition or as a last resort if no other match could happen go in with FF and the smaller parties
Its understandable that you'd discount all that, being a Sinn Fein supporter
But it doesn't change the situation

Jeepers, talk about round the houses excuse making.
FG were gaming at best, lying at worst.
It was like a child who hurts themselves stupidly saying 'I meant to do that'.
They had just been embarrased at the polls and huffed for a while.

James Brown

Mortelaro wrote: »

No
Its actually simple enough and very transparent
Fine Gael would prefer to have been first like last time not third
They assumed that FF and SF would do business (so did I)
In other words that MM would relent his opposition to that
I think that marriage is what Leo was relishing or any opposition to it
That didn't happen of course and won't this term but the numbers were and are there for it
You seem to be discounting the fact that FG wanted to see first if FF and SF would dance or any other combination
FF needed either SF or FG
FG had the luxury of relishing opposition or as a last resort if no other match could happen go in with FF and the smaller parties
Its understandable that you'd discount all that, being a Sinn Fein supporter
But it doesn't change the situation

Nope.
If FG had to form a government by any means necessary the 'last resort' story might carry a little weight, had they not a prior relationship of convenience with FF. They merrily chose FF, they could have decided to go back to their initial choice of opposition. They never explored any other formation scenarios outside of accepting FF's invite.
You diluting and fudging to talk about pre-election wishes and wants is an irrelevance.
Again, what other match? They publicly announced they relished opposition. They knocked FF back not once, but twice affirming they wanted to go into opposition. They then chose to take FF's invite to try form a government.
I'm as much a SF supporter as I am a PBP supporter. I know it's easy to dismiss any FG criticism or comment as blind bias but every point is explained although your comprehension seems unable or unwilling to grasp, regardless of my or anyone else's voting habits.

Bishop of hope

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'con artists'

All three of the parties in talks have lambasted the policy of the other two. Two of those party's ruled out coalition with the others.

Con artists? Yeh, sure.

I have no bother admitting they're all con artists, all I believe. The FF/FG document is unachievable as much as the SF manifesto is or was, even before this crisis.
The greens supporters are going to be dissapointed too, their targets aren't achievable re climate change.
But Joe soap will have to cough up hefty taxes because of this re paying the carbon taxes they will introduce if the Govt with them in it goes ahead.
Are you prepared to admit SF are con artists?

PS, it must be hard to shout about the others Desperation for power, when none are desperate enough to deal with you, so, desperate but not that desperate?

Podge_irl

Bowie wrote: »

Last resort suggests there were other 'resorts' or avenues for forming government and FG had exhausted them. That is not the case. It was opposition or FF. Initially it was opposition now they chose FF instead. That's the facts.

Pure baloney FG being the reluctant partner of FF. Laughable and false.

It is not within FG's remit or powers to "choose" opposition. They remain the government until either an election is called or another Taoiseach is elected. They are, presumably, working on the basis that an interim government long term is not the ideal scenario and an election right now is basically impossible. I suppose remaining as an interim govt is the actual last resort if you want to be particularly picky.

McMurphy

Podge_irl wrote: »

It is not within FG's remit or powers to "choose" opposition. They remain the government until either an election is called or another Taoiseach is elected. They are, presumably, working on the basis that an interim government long term is not the ideal scenario and an election right now is basically impossible. I suppose remaining as an interim govt is the actual last resort if you want to be particularly picky.

That's how that particular topic of conversation led here.

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Are you prepared to admit SF are con artists?

'Con artists'...is your term.

FG conned me and a lot of others in 2011.
I voted SF this time after giving Enda another chance in 2016 (I know...fool me once etc etc) I wasn't expecting delivery of all they promised but they failed so abjectly to deliver the new politics they promised it amounted to a con job.

I will let you know after a term in government if SF deliver or not.

James Brown

Podge_irl wrote: »

It is not within FG's remit or powers to "choose" opposition. They remain the government until either an election is called or another Taoiseach is elected. They are, presumably, working on the basis that an interim government long term is not the ideal scenario and an election right now is basically impossible. I suppose remaining as an interim govt is the actual last resort if you want to be particularly picky.

You are talking about something completely different. They are the current caretaker government. We are discussing FG's plans. The point is FF invited FG to try form a government and FG accepted. They are not forced to be a part of the formation of the next government. They chose to accept FF's invite. They chose not to work with SF, just like they initially chose to relish opposition despite being the caretaker government until a new one is formed at that time too.
Being a caretaker government is not a choice, so therefore not a first, second or last resort either.

Mortelaro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Jeepers, talk about round the houses excuse making.
FG were gaming at best, lying at worst.
It was like a child who hurts themselves stupidly saying 'I meant to do that'.
They had just been embarrased at the polls and huffed for a while.

Not excuses
Just the facts
FG know how to haggle you see
I'd expect nothing less
As for your analysis, I'd expect nothing less than what you've been saying either

Mortelaro

Bowie wrote: »

Nope.
If FG had to form a government by any means necessary the 'last resort' story might carry a little weight, had they not a prior relationship of convenience with FF. They merrily chose FF, they could have decided to go back to their initial choice of opposition. They never explored any other formation scenarios outside of accepting FF's invite.
You diluting and fudging to talk about pre-election wishes and wants is an irrelevance.
Again, what other match? They publicly announced they relished opposition. They knocked FF back not once, but twice affirming they wanted to go into opposition. They then chose to take FF's invite to try form a government.
I'm as much a SF supporter as I am a PBP supporter. I know it's easy to dismiss any FG criticism or comment as blind bias but every point is explained although your comprehension seems unable or unwilling to grasp, regardless of my or anyone else's voting habits.

Were you asleep during the election?
FF and FG campaigned as adversaries
Except Leo answered a question saying hed go with them as a last resort only
What part of first and middle resort being let the rest get on with their negotiations before that last resort is reached do you not understand?

efanton

Mortelaro wrote: »

Were you asleep during the election?
FF and FG campaigned as adversaries
Except Leo answered a question saying hed go with them as a last resort only
What part of first and middle resort being let the rest get on with their negotiations before that last resort is reached do you not understand?

Lets be blunt about the whole situation.

FG took a massive slap in the recent election, far bigger than they expected.
FF didnt come close to their expectations, in fact the recent election is probably the death knell for the FF party unless it is prepared to totally reform itself into something totally different. I cant see that ever happening especially when you have Micheal Martin at the helm and many of those sat around the cabinet table making the disastrous decisions that led to a total bank and bondholder bailout and years of austerity in this country still largely in control of FF.

The reality is Micheal Martin sees this as his last possible chance of being Taoiseach, and if he fails in that then he will simply be sidelined and replaced and he knows this is an all or nothing effort for him. If FF fail to enter government then its likely that there will be a major schism within the party either resulting in a complete replacement of the 'top dogs' in the party or a inevitable disintegration of the party. If another election is called, it is likely that some of the FF TD's that were elected, and some of those that were not but expected to be elected will go independent, or actually switch to another party unless there is serious and immediate reform within FF.

Leo and the front bench in FG know this as well. If they step away from this opportunity to remain in government, FF as a force in politics are dead.
As much as each of the two parties (FF and FG) claim that they are adversaries, each to a large degree depends on the other. If FF disintegrates which parties fill the void they leave behind, FG might pick up some of this vote but most of it would be going to Labour, SF, Greens and the SD's, in fact it is likely that some FF TD's (current and past) would consider defecting to these parties as an act of political self preservation.

FG are playing the only cards they have. They could opt for a new election, but are probably terrified that even though they will do slightly better the FF vote will collapse leaving them with zero options of going into government, and it being unlikely that they would ever be in a position where they could ever easily form a government in the future. FG need FF to survive.

They could hang on in there form a coalition, any coalition, hope beyond hope that they pull of some sort of minor miracle getting through the virus crisis, addressing the mistakes they made in the past to some degree, and bringing the economy back to some sort of stability over the period of another term in government and somehow redeem themselves in the eyes of the electorate.

A man is only prepared to lose everything when he has nothing else left to loose.

We have two parties FF and FG who at this time have nothing left to lose.
It has nothing to do with what was said during the election, nothing to do with election promises and absolutely nothing to do with what is good for the country.
Leo will bail out Micheal Martin because the alternative for FG is unthinkable.

FrancieBrady

efanton wrote: »

Lets be blunt about the whole situation.

FG took a massive slap in the recent election, far bigger than they expected.
FF didnt come close to their expectations, in fact the recent election is probably the death knell for the FF party unless it is prepared to totally reform itself into something totally different. I cant see that ever happening especially when you have Micheal Martin at the helm and many of those sat around the cabinet table making the disastrous decisions that led to a total bank and bondholder bailout and years of austerity in this country still largely in control of FF.

The reality is Micheal Martin sees this as his last possible chance of being Taoiseach, and if he fails in that then he will simply be sidelined and replaced and he knows this is an all or nothing effort for him. If FF fail to enter government then its likely that there will be a major schism within the party either resulting in a complete replacement of the 'top dogs' in the party or a inevitable disintegration of the party. If another election is called, it is likely that some of the FF TD's that were elected, and some of those that were not but expected to be elected will go independent, or actually switch to another party unless there is serious and immediate reform within FF.

Leo and the front bench in FG know this as well. If they step away from this opportunity to remain in government, FF as a force in politics are dead.
As much as each of the two parties (FF and FG) claim that they are adversaries, each to a large degree depends on the other. If FF disintegrates which parties fill the void they leave behind, FG might pick up some of this vote but most of it would be going to Labour, SF, Greens and the SD's, in fact it is likely that some FF TD's (current and past) would consider defecting to these parties as an act of political self preservation.

FG are playing the only cards they have. They could opt for a new election, but are probably terrified that even though they will do slightly better the FF vote will collapse leaving them with zero options of going into government, and it being unlikely that they would ever be in a position where they could ever easily form a government in the future. FG need FF to survive.

They could hang on in there form a coalition, any coalition, hope beyond hope that they pull of some sort of minor miracle getting through the virus crisis, addressing the mistakes they made in the past to some degree, and bringing the economy back to some sort of stability over the period of another term in government and somehow redeem themselves in the eyes of the electorate.

A man is only prepared to lose everything when he has nothing else left to loose.

We have two parties FF and FG who at this time have nothing left to lose.
It has nothing to do with what was said during the election, nothing to do with election promises and absolutely nothing to do with what is good for the country.
Leo will bail out Micheal Martin because the alternative for FG is unthinkable.

Good post.

Covid hasn't changed the game, it has just ushered endgame closer.

One of the power swap party's is leaving the stage, at the moment FG have the upper hand, but it is a tenuous one. They have to play this right. They cannot be the party that mops up the mess or all the gains will disappear.
Covid, was an out of the blue lifeline for them, nobody would want that, but it happened. FG are playing it well so far. FF down to 14%. Can they keep it up?
I doubt it, but who knows.
One thing is certain, it is FF/FG and one parachute, clinging to each other afraid to let go, in case the other one is wearing the good parachute.

PommieBast

My pre-Covid thinking was that MM would be deposed and some sort of FF-SF coalition would emerge. That looks well off the agenda now.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Covid, was an out of the blue lifeline for them, nobody would want that, but it happened. FG are playing it well so far.

Based on how the "handing of Brexit" campaign they ran back in feb went, I doubt they will be thanked for it.

blanch152

efanton wrote: »

Lets be blunt about the whole situation.

FG took a massive slap in the recent election, far bigger than they expected.
FF didnt come close to their expectations, in fact the recent election is probably the death knell for the FF party unless it is prepared to totally reform itself into something totally different. I cant see that ever happening especially when you have Micheal Martin at the helm and many of those sat around the cabinet table making the disastrous decisions that led to a total bank and bondholder bailout and years of austerity in this country still largely in control of FF.

The reality is Micheal Martin sees this as his last possible chance of being Taoiseach, and if he fails in that then he will simply be sidelined and replaced and he knows this is an all or nothing effort for him. If FF fail to enter government then its likely that there will be a major schism within the party either resulting in a complete replacement of the 'top dogs' in the party or a inevitable disintegration of the party. If another election is called, it is likely that some of the FF TD's that were elected, and some of those that were not but expected to be elected will go independent, or actually switch to another party unless there is serious and immediate reform within FF.

Leo and the front bench in FG know this as well. If they step away from this opportunity to remain in government, FF as a force in politics are dead.
As much as each of the two parties (FF and FG) claim that they are adversaries, each to a large degree depends on the other. If FF disintegrates which parties fill the void they leave behind, FG might pick up some of this vote but most of it would be going to Labour, SF, Greens and the SD's, in fact it is likely that some FF TD's (current and past) would consider defecting to these parties as an act of political self preservation.

FG are playing the only cards they have. They could opt for a new election, but are probably terrified that even though they will do slightly better the FF vote will collapse leaving them with zero options of going into government, and it being unlikely that they would ever be in a position where they could ever easily form a government in the future. FG need FF to survive.

They could hang on in there form a coalition, any coalition, hope beyond hope that they pull of some sort of minor miracle getting through the virus crisis, addressing the mistakes they made in the past to some degree, and bringing the economy back to some sort of stability over the period of another term in government and somehow redeem themselves in the eyes of the electorate.

A man is only prepared to lose everything when he has nothing else left to loose.

We have two parties FF and FG who at this time have nothing left to lose.
It has nothing to do with what was said during the election, nothing to do with election promises and absolutely nothing to do with what is good for the country.
Leo will bail out Micheal Martin because the alternative for FG is unthinkable.

This doesn’t make sense at all based on the recent opinion poll. If it is right, forming a government without FG would be close to impossible.

FrancieBrady

PommieBast wrote: »

My pre-Covid thinking was that MM would be deposed and some sort of FF-SF coalition would emerge. That looks well off the agenda now.



Based on how the "handing of Brexit" campaign they ran back in feb went, I doubt they will be thanked for it.

Outside threats would be handled more or less the same way by whoever is in power here IMO.

I praised Coveney, McEntee, Richmond highly for their handling of Brexit, but any of the main parties would have done much the same.
Same goes for Covid, any of them would have done the same thing. And made mistakes too and had lapses.

There is no doubt about it, Covid has saved FG, they are playing a blinder in saving themselves too...so far. The hard bit has yet to come.

I'll be gobsmacked if they go in with FF, I think they will set the bar too high for the Greens and The Greens will walk.
FG will then fall back to their carefully stated, 'no coalition without a 3rd party' position hoping that will be aenough of a smokescreen to get them to an election, not of their making(crucial).

That is where they will hope the gains from the crisis gets them ahead of FF, which is priority now for both of them - FF and FG. Get ahead of each other.

They could care less about SF, they know they can do nothing about that. They just need to stay ahead of FF. It's working so far.

markodaly

efanton wrote: »

If FF disintegrates which parties fill the void they leave behind, FG might pick up some of this vote but most of it would be going to Labour, SF, Greens and the SD's, in fact it is likely that some FF TD's (current and past) would consider defecting to these parties as an act of political self preservation.

How do you know this? Any actual data to back that up?
I dont think so.

FG are playing the only cards they have. They could opt for a new election, but are probably terrified that even though they will do slightly better the FF vote will collapse leaving them with zero options of going into government, and it being unlikely that they would ever be in a position where they could ever easily form a government in the future. FG need FF to survive.

Terrified of what exactly? If FF collapse as you put it, most of the vote will be drawn back into FG, seeing as all the other parties are on the other side of the political spectrum.

They could hang on in there form a coalition, any coalition, hope beyond hope that they pull of some sort of minor miracle getting through the virus crisis, addressing the mistakes they made in the past to some degree, and bringing the economy back to some sort of stability over the period of another term in government and somehow redeem themselves in the eyes of the electorate.

Looking at the latest RedC poll this is already happening

A man is only prepared to lose everything when he has nothing else left to loose.

I have to love these long posts of yours, from time to time, as you chop and change your stated position more times than the Karma Sutra.

We have two parties FF and FG who at this time have nothing left to lose.
It has nothing to do with what was said during the election, nothing to do with election promises and absolutely nothing to do with what is good for the country.
Leo will bail out Micheal Martin because the alternative for FG is unthinkable.

The unthinkable that FG go into opposition, let SF who 'won' the election apparently try and form a government and let them at it for a few years. Yes, terrible from a FG point of view alright.

SF is like a new shiny football player, hot from a big summer transfer from abroad. Lots of hype but has done nothing on the pitch. Give them a few years playing and we will see how the electorate view SF because I can tell you, SF are in for a reckoning. Are you keeping an eye on the John Waters and Gemma o'Doherty case and the rabble that follows it? That is the future of SF right there as they try to wrestle and appease their core vote against the realities of government and internationalism.

SF are the nativist party yet they don't know it.

efanton

blanch152 wrote: »

This doesn’t make sense at all based on the recent opinion poll. If it is right, forming a government without FG would be close to impossible.

how do you mean it doesn't make sense?

If the coalition fails and FF disintegrate, how is it going to be possible for FG to join ANY coalition let alone go solo and form a government with a few indy's to make up the numbers.

With a FF party falling apart if a coalition is not formed where do you think those votes are going to go?

The recent opinion poll gave FG a bit of a bounce, it didnt put them leagues ahead of every other party. It had the Green down 2% and FF down 4% with SF getting a modest increase of 3%.


The reality is FG need FF as much as FF currently needs FG. If FF nosedived in a repeat election FG will not be in government and neither would FF.




https://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/423820-SBP-29-March-2020-Poll-Report.pdf

efanton

Mark, I have long given up reading all your posts, let alone bothering to reply to them.

markodaly

efanton wrote: »

Mark, I have long given up reading all your posts, let alone bothering to reply to them.

Well it is a public forum not a personal blog.

I have taken you to task over many of your points, and rightly so because a lot of what you say is wrong.

markodaly

efanton wrote: »

If the coalition fails and FF disintegrate, how is it going to be possible for FG to join ANY coalition let alone go solo and form a government with a few indy's to make up the numbers.

FG have been in government numerous times, all without the help of FF

With a FF party falling apart if a coalition is not formed where do you think those votes are going to go?

Parties with similar interests

The recent opinion poll gave FG a bit of a bounce, it didnt put them leagues ahead of every other party. It had the Green down 2% and FF down 4% with SF getting a modest increase of 3%.

Bit of a bounce? 20.9% in Feb to 35% in the last Red C poll. That is nearly doubling of support.
35% in a General election would yield FG over 70 seats (They got 76 seats on 36.1% in 2011)

The reality is FG need FF as much as FF currently needs FG. If FF nosedived in a repeat election FG will not be in government and neither would FF.

When was the last time FG were in government with FF?

McMurphy

markodaly wrote: »

FG have been in government numerous times, all without the help of FF

When was the last time FG were in government with FF?

I gave an analysis on how FGs election results have been since 2011 - from needing labour to prop them up - to needing FF to allow them to govern - to both FG and FF combined needing a smaller party and some independents to get on board to make a government possible.

Meanwhile the shinners have went from

2011 - 14 seats (previously 4) +175%
2016 - 23 seats +72%
2020 - 37 seats +60%

So from 2011 the shinners have went from 14 seats to 37 an increase of 164%
FG on the other hand have went from 76 seats to 35. A decrease of 54%.

River in Africa comes to mind.

christy c

McMurphy wrote: »

So from 2011 the shinners have went from 14 seats to 37 an increase of 164%
FG on the other hand have went from 76 seats to 35. A decrease of 54%.

Unfortunately for all of us is that during this time, SF have been using the tried and trusted Bertie Ahern spend like drunken sailors strategy. So while the increase in seats is good news for their supporters and members, not so much so for the rest of us.

I really despair at what the next few years of going to be like, a projected €30 billion deficit this year but all the main parties seem to be living in cloud cuckoo land. Very little detail about the harsh reality that's facing us, I expect that's because they all expect an election relatively soon.

Bishop of hope

FrancieBrady wrote: »

'Con artists'...is your term.

FG conned me and a lot of others in 2011.
I voted SF this time after giving Enda another chance in 2016 (I know...fool me once etc etc) I wasn't expecting delivery of all they promised but they failed so abjectly to deliver the new politics they promised it amounted to a con job.

I will let you know after a term in government if SF deliver or not.

Well I'd say you're being conned again.
One thing I learned about politics, its not what you want to do in it, its what you can do realistically, but if you can convince people that you can do what you say then you can get elected.
Very few ever achieve it.
Given the situation we find ourselves in right now I don't believe SF have the experience or the capabilities of getting us back on a good economic footing, I think they realise that too and are happy to sit back and wait till the hard decisions are made, the unpopular ones.
Then maybe when a bit of a semblance of balance returns., when the unpopular hard choices are made and people are starting to get greedy again, they can ride in on a wave of Populist bull**** again and save us from the bastards that saved us

Wanderer78

christy c wrote:

I really despair at what the next few years of going to be like, a projected €30 billion deficit this year but all the main parties seem to be living in cloud cuckoo land. Very little detail about the harsh reality that's facing us, I expect that's because they all expect an election relatively soon.

Budget deficits aren't necessarily a bad thing, provided the money is put to good use, such as infrastructure spending etc, also baring in mind that many of these loans are at record low rates, some negative. Provided these loans are continually serviced, they can in fact be continually rolled over for many decades, and there's no need for tax hikes to do so, we effectively grow our way out of this crisis

McMurphy

christy c wrote: »

Unfortunately for all of us is that during this time, SF have been using the tried and trusted Bertie Ahern spend like drunken sailors strategy. So while the increase in seats is good news for their supporters and members, not so much so for the rest of us.

I really despair at what the next few years of going to be like, a projected €30 billion deficit this year but all the main parties seem to be living in cloud cuckoo land. Very little detail about the harsh reality that's facing us, I expect that's because they all expect an election relatively soon.

National broadband plan and the children's hospital is hardly a ringing endorsement of financial prudence Christy.

christy c

McMurphy wrote: »

National broadband plan and the children's hospital is hardly a ringing endorsement of financial prudence Christy.

Agreed, hence why I said I despair at the next few years and why I said all main parties are living in cloud cuckoo land.