FG to just do nothing for the next 5 years.

aido79

markodaly wrote: »

SF is like a new shiny football player, hot from a big summer transfer from abroad. Lots of hype but has done nothing on the pitch. Give them a few years playing and we will see how the electorate view SF because I can tell you, SF are in for a reckoning. Are you keeping an eye on the John Waters and Gemma o'Doherty case and the rabble that follows it? That is the future of SF right there as they try to wrestle and appease their core vote against the realities of government and internationalism.

SF are the nativist party yet they don't know it.

This is exactly why part of me would like to see SF go into government and now is the best time for that to happen when the country will be on its knees after the fallout of covid19. Throw them in at the deep end and see if they sink or swim.
I'd be very interested to see how differently they would do things compared to what the government done in the last recession.
I'm not ready to emigrate again but by the time SF had their way for a couple of years I most definitely would be.

seamus

blanch152 wrote: »

This doesn’t make sense at all based on the recent opinion poll. If it is right, forming a government without FG would be close to impossible.

This. The current situation is that nobody wants to be the one who forces an election during this crisis, and FG stand to nearly double their votes if there is one.

This is a last gasp for FF. The Greens see this as the most powerful position they could find themselves in. Even though the polls suggest they could gain a seat or two, in an election they'd be going in with a much larger FG and would therefore have far less ability to get their policy on the table.

FrancieBrady

Bishop of hope wrote: »

Well I'd say you're being conned again.
One thing I learned about politics, its not what you want to do in it, its what you can do realistically, but if you can convince people that you can do what you say then you can get elected.
Very few ever achieve it.
Given the situation we find ourselves in right now I don't believe SF have the experience or the capabilities of getting us back on a good economic footing, I think they realise that too and are happy to sit back and wait till the hard decisions are made, the unpopular ones.
Then maybe when a bit of a semblance of balance returns., when the unpopular hard choices are made and people are starting to get greedy again, they can ride in on a wave of Populist bull**** again and save us from the bastards that saved us

Anyone would think that Ireland was devoid of 'populism' 'bull****' 'greed' greedy politics' 'bad economic choices' 'an unbalanced society' etc until SF came along, from your posting.

Mortelaro

McMurphy wrote: »

I gave an analysis on how FGs election results have been since 2011 - from needing labour to prop them up - to needing FF to allow them to govern - to both FG and FF combined needing a smaller party and some independents to get on board to make a government possible.

Meanwhile the shinners have went from

2011 - 14 seats (previously 4) +175%
2016 - 23 seats +72%
2020 - 37 seats +60%

So from 2011 the shinners have went from 14 seats to 37 an increase of 164%
FG on the other hand have went from 76 seats to 35. A decrease of 54%.

River in Africa comes to mind.

You omitted 2 crucial points,I wonder why...
Last summers disastrous SF council elections and that the last Dail majority received by a party in Ireland was 43 years ago

McMurphy

Mortelaro wrote: »

You omitted 2 crucial points,I wonder why...
Last summers disastrous SF council elections and that the last Dail majority received by a party in Ireland was 43 years ago

You want me to make the exact same post I did last time when I was asked about this by yourself

You think I've changed my mind in a week? :pac:

Snow Garden

FrancieBrady wrote: »

One thing is certain, it is FF/FG and one parachute, clinging to each other afraid to let go, in case the other one is wearing the good parachute.

FF & FG going into coalition is the best result of the election. It is exactly what I hoped for and hopefully ends the so called 'civil war politics'.
It will be interesting to see if new opposition parties emerge over the next 4/5 years.

FrancieBrady

On the original topic of the thread - The Minister For Education, have we ever had a more dithering/do nothing one?
The absolute torture and unnecessary stress he is putting students under after a 5 or 6 year cycle is a disgrace at this stage.


No decision is going to be the right one for everyone, it is long past time he got off the pot and did his job.

Why can he not make a decision on this? Is he afraid of being unpopular?

Mortelaro

McMurphy wrote: »

You want me to make the exact same post I did last time when I was asked about this by yourself

You think I've changed my mind in a week? :pac:

Well the important thing is it's your mind and not everyone else's thank fuck

aido79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

On the original topic of the thread - The Minister For Education, have we ever had a more dithering/do nothing one?
The absolute torture and unnecessary stress he is putting students under after a 5 or 6 year cycle is a disgrace at this stage.


No decision is going to be the right one for everyone, it is long past time he got off the pot and did his job.

Why can he not make a decision on this? Is he afraid of being unpopular?

Maybe because it's actually a very difficult to decision to make and one that would may change how the leaving cert and Cao application system is done from this year on.
It's not simply just a matter of will the exams go ahead or not.
There were almost 3000 appeals last year. Can you imagine how many there might be if a change is done to how the exams are done? And that's without even considering appeals from other years where a student might have done better in the mocks than the real exam.

It's not about popularity. It's about making a decision for the best outcome.

FrancieBrady

aido79 wrote: »

Maybe because it's actually a very difficult to decision to make and one that would may change how the leaving cert and Cao application system is done from this year on.
It's not simply just a matter of will the exams go ahead or not.
There were almost 3000 appeals last year. Can you imagine how many there might be if a change is done to how the exams are done? And that's without even considering appeals from other years where a student might have done better in the mocks than the real exam.

It's not about popularity. It's about making a decision for the best outcome.

Why does dithering on it make it easier? His job is to make decisions.

Nothing is going to change the permutations/issues, they are a given here, and everyone in education knows what they are.

Mortelaro

Yes it reminds me of the testing 'furore'
If you were waiting for one you isolate for 2 weeks
If you're sympathetic you go to the gp or hospital
That covered transmission bases

Similar with the leaving
We know it's being delayed at least
So continue studying
Decision's need time to be got right

My solution would be though to have all students go into isolation after their exams are finished and police that via random Garda visits

Wanderer78

Mortelaro wrote: »

Yes it reminds me of the testing 'furore'
If you were waiting for one you isolate for 2 weeks
If you're sympathetic you go to the gp or hospital
That covered transmission bases

Similar with the leaving
We know it's being delayed at least
So continue studying
Decision's need time to be got right

My solution would be though to have all students go into isolation after their exams are finished and police that via random Garda visits

or maybe just dont bother with the exams, and go on the students work over the last year or two

Mortelaro

Wanderer78 wrote: »

or maybe just dont bother with the exams, and go on the students work over the last year or two

Problem with that is,as one college student told me yesterday, if they went on his mock results,he wouldn't be in college

aido79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Why does dithering on it make it easier? His job is to make decisions.

Nothing is going to change the permutations/issues, they are a given here, and everyone in education knows what they are.

The permutations/issues can change. Why do you say they are a given? The figures are dynamic and dependent on actions taken by the public in the next few months. That's exactly why making a decision would be difficult. How can they predict what the level of community transmissions will be when the exams are proposed to start on July 29th?

FrancieBrady

aido79 wrote: »

The permutations/issues can change. Why do you say they are a given? The figures are dynamic and dependent on actions taken by the public in the next few months. That's exactly why making a decision would be difficult. How can they predict what the level of community transmissions will be when the exams are proposed to start on July 29th?

There is a plan to come out of lockdown...how did they arrive at the decisions on that?

Students are in limbo at a critical juncture in their lives. They need clarity not dithering and rumour after rumour.
A decision is going to be unpopular with somebody but they won't make it.

Wanderer78

Mortelaro wrote: »

Problem with that is,as one college student told me yesterday, if they went on his mock results,he wouldn't be in college

there will always be fallout from whatever approach we take, theres many different avenues into third level, i wouldnt have gotten into two irish universities directly from leaving cert, but i did, it just took much longer than those that went directly

Mortelaro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is a plan to come out of lockdown...how did they arrive at the decisions on that?
.

That plan can be reversed it's the desired situation
The leaving cert has already got a tentative timeframe too
As Aidan has said,the advice currently is to continue studying until a firm decision is possible
I'm sure the department of health,the HSE and Education are working flat out on what can be done or not

aido79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

There is a plan to come out of lockdown...how did they arrive at the decisions on that?

Students are in limbo at a critical juncture in their lives. They need clarity not dithering and rumour after rumour.
A decision is going to be unpopular with somebody but they won't make it.

The plan to come out of lockdown is outlined in stages which can be reversed at any time if the numbers start to rise.
If they make a decision on the leaving cert it would be more or less set in stone and difficult to change the dates.
Do you see the difference?

Personally I agree with you that they need to make a decision on it but I can see the other side of the argument too and how it would be a difficult decision with a lot of possible knock on effects.

blanch152

efanton wrote: »

how do you mean it doesn't make sense?

If the coalition fails and FF disintegrate, how is it going to be possible for FG to join ANY coalition let alone go solo and form a government with a few indy's to make up the numbers.

With a FF party falling apart if a coalition is not formed where do you think those votes are going to go?

The recent opinion poll gave FG a bit of a bounce, it didnt put them leagues ahead of every other party. It had the Green down 2% and FF down 4% with SF getting a modest increase of 3%.


The reality is FG need FF as much as FF currently needs FG. If FF nosedived in a repeat election FG will not be in government and neither would FF.




https://www.redcresearch.ie/wp-content/uploads/2020/03/423820-SBP-29-March-2020-Poll-Report.pdf

https://www.thejournal.ie/government-formation-opinion-poll-5090839-May2020/

There is a more recent poll:

FG: 35%
SF: 27%
FF: 14%


Very difficult to form a government without FG if that poll came to pass.

FrancieBrady

aido79 wrote: »

The plan to come out of lockdown is outlined in stages which can be reversed at any time if the numbers start to rise.
If they make a decision on the leaving cert it would be more or less set in stone and difficult to change the dates.
Do you see the difference?

Personally I agree with you that they need to make a decision on it but I can see the other side of the argument too and how it would be a difficult decision with a lot of possible knock on effects.

The parameters affecting a decision have not changed, the knock on effects have been teased out to exhaustion.

It is the Minister's job to know these issues much much better than anyone.
A 'decision' has to be made, and that in itself has been known since this started. Excuses about it being 'set in stone' are just that, excuses. If the situation changes radically it can be looked at again as an 'emergency'. When 'lockdown' came...no event in Ireland was immune to cancellation or postponement.

aido79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The parameters affecting a decision have not changed, the knock on effects have been teased out to exhaustion.

It is the Minister's job to know these issues much much better than anyone.
A 'decision' has to be made, and that in itself has been known since this started. Excuses about it being 'set in stone' are just that, excuses. If the situation changes radically it can be looked at again as an 'emergency'. When 'lockdown' came...no event in Ireland was immune to cancellation or postponement.

How have the parameters not changed? They change with the rate of infection. A lot can happen between now and the end of July. Thousands of people going back to work and other activities could send us back to square one or worse for all we know.
It's easy to say make a decision and set a date but wouldn't setting a date and then having to change it again be the same if not worse for the students?

Mortelaro

FrancieBrady wrote: »

The parameters affecting a decision have not changed, the knock on effects have been teased out to exhaustion.

Well colour me pink
Along side all the storage you need for curly wigs and benches,your locker is now full of PhD manuscripts on virus control
My!

Truth is ,we do not know
But I suspect we will before the original leaving was to end
If so,and its held,then theres no adverse effects except lack of normal teacher pupil one on ones
I suspect also that they do want to hold it and not devalue the qualification like in the UK
Hence every detail must be crunched
Hence it's taking time

FrancieBrady

aido79 wrote: »

How have the parameters not changed? They change with the rate of infection. A lot can happen between now and the end of July. Thousands of people going back to work and other activities could send us back to square one or worse for all we know.
It's easy to say make a decision and set a date but wouldn't setting a date and then having to change it again be the same if not worse for the students?

If this ^ is what is affecting a decision being made...it might NEVER be made.

No decision need to be 'set in stone'. Everybody understands that public health is the priority.
The general populace understand this about the 'plan' that does exist, students need not be treated any differently.
Dithering is helping nobody.

markodaly

McMurphy wrote: »

I gave an analysis on how FGs election results have been since 2011 - from needing labour to prop them up - to needing FF to allow them to govern - to both FG and FF combined needing a smaller party and some independents to get on board to make a government possible.

'prop them up'
'allow them to govern'..

Listen to yourself. As I keep saying, Ireland has not had a majority government since 1977 and for the foreseeable future, that trend will continue.

Coalition governments are the ONLY game in town to form governments and this day will also come for SF, they will need the help of numerous other parties to, em, 'prop' them up and 'allow' them to govern.

River in Africa comes to mind.

What exactly am I in denial about?

markodaly

Deleted User wrote: »

Before x-mas....noone outside leinster house buys what they were upto as anything other than being in governement together

It was a minority government arrangement.
There is a difference between that and an actual coalition.


https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/generalelection/minority-government-coalitions-prime-minister-government-snp-labour-conservative-lib-dem-10232801.html

aido79

FrancieBrady wrote: »

If this ^ is what is affecting a decision being made...it might NEVER be made.

No decision need to be 'set in stone'. Everybody understands that public health is the priority.
The general populace understand this about the 'plan' that does exist, students need not be treated any differently.
Dithering is helping nobody.

I'll let you in on something else...it's affecting the reopening of thousands of businesses including pubs and shops around the country.
Lots of difficult decisions to be made.

FrancieBrady

aido79 wrote: »

I'll let you in on something else...it's affecting the reopening of thousands of businesses including pubs and shops around the country.
Lots of difficult decisions to be made.

They have their plan. It is mapped out.

Still, rumour, speculation and a total lack of decision making affecting Leaving Cert students at a critical juncture in their lives.

markodaly

aido79 wrote: »

This is exactly why part of me would like to see SF go into government and now is the best time for that to happen when the country will be on its knees after the fallout of covid19. Throw them in at the deep end and see if they sink or swim.
I'd be very interested to see how differently they would do things compared to what the government done in the last recession.
I'm not ready to emigrate again but by the time SF had their way for a couple of years I most definitely would be.

Their vote is an alliance of the left-wing Republican 'up da ra' types, right-wing 'up da ra' nationalists, economic populists and the new 'anyone but FF and FG' types, who have yet to see what SF are really about, but they will see soon enough.

The issue is, once they actually go into power, they won't be able to blame the DUP, Westminister or anyone else for the decisions they took or are unable to take.

Unless of course, they go after the EU, which I can see them doing by trying to deflect criticism.

'We can spend X billion on housing because the EU rules wont let us'

That will be like a war cry for the nativist, Gemma o'Doherty types and there you have it, Irelands very own version of UKIP and the Front Nationale are born.

Thus the new political split for the next generation is done.

markodaly

Deleted User wrote: »

And frankly many view as insulting their intelligence,

Well if one cannot distinguish between a majority coalition and a minority government, then it is not their intelligence I would be holding on a pedestal.

markodaly

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Students are in limbo at a critical juncture in their lives. They need clarity not dithering and rumour after rumour.
A decision is going to be unpopular with somebody but they won't make it.

FrancieBrady wrote: »

Dithering is helping nobody.

What are they doing in the North Francie? :P