Who will win the election in a few months time?

realdanbreen

tipptom wrote: »

I don't have a problem with someone starting up their SF bashing thread but at least be man enough to set it up as that, instead of pretending its something else.

Do you seriously think that I give 2 f***s what you have a problem with?

realdanbreen

tipptom wrote: »

.

Something similar with a lot of these same posters calling SF voters scum,unintelligent,unemployed,scroungers etc..

You are the only one here using those words.

tipptom

realdanbreen wrote: »

Are you ever going to post something constructive or come to think of it are you capable of posting something constructive?

Your bitter now because you got called out on your BS thread starter that has nothing to do with it which you haven't even refuted.
That's a lot of bitterness in one week.

One page in and you posted nine of your own posts ranting about SF which had nothing to do with your opening post.

Blanco100

Party politics is pretty tedious to watch. Watching these a**holes playing a game of political chicken in order to preserve their parties reputation and history is sickening really.

Whats best for FF, whats best for FG, whats best for SF??? Seriously, who gives a flying f*ck. Put together a government that serves the people in the best possible way. A great example of this was when Cowan made a massive event out of stepping down as leader of FF, he still remained on as Taoiseach for the interim, but that was no big deal, stepping down as leader of his own great institution was the big deal. This is the kind of sh*t that annoys me.

Would be brilliant to see that political system ripped up and politicians allowed to think for themselves. Not voting for something to toe their stupid party line. Its a broken system, independents being elected who are glorified county councillors. TDs having served for decades when there will never be a sniff of making any contribution to policy change, simply spending their career telling everyone "how the other crowd are doing it wrong", but they are f*cked to tell us how they would do it any better.

Would be a novel system to see party politics thrown to one side and the best TDs from each of the parties come together to govern, I know the system doesn't allow it, but this stupid game of one upmanship doesn't benefit anyone.

UDAWINNER

realdanbreen wrote: »

Do you seriously think that I give 2 f***s what you have a problem with?

Another keyboard warrior, did your parents tell you who to vote for?:D

bunderoon

gmisk wrote: »

I thought FF said constantly they didn't want to go in with SF? That's what they said in every debate going...I don't think I heard the same from SF?

Sinn Fein will likely win the most seats if they run more candidates.

Not a fan of SF but it is clear here that FG and FF are in bed together.
If SF were able to tackle even one area where FF and FG failed (or made their buddies millions) then it would highlight how both parties really dont represent the people.

Idbatterim

Floppybits wrote: »

It was the treatment of the SF by the media that really pushed people to vote for them. When they didn't let Mary Lou into the first Leaders debate after the polls had SF neck and neck with FF and FG. That really played into their narrative that FF, FG and media do not want change and are excluding SF from government.

FF, FG and the media will need to be careful if a new election is called in their attacks and treatment of SF will not drive more people to them and FF and FG try to protect their place in Irish Society.

Lets be honest there is no room for FF and FG. they either need to join together or one of them needs to go.

both F'ing useless, but FF worse in my opinion. Also if they cant even go into coalition... anyone thinking they will merge is insane! they would do a decent job of running the country first and even that is an obscene prospect!

tipptom

realdanbreen wrote: »

4 days since the election and SF supporters already want to bring in censorship!

No one wants censorship but grow a pair and say what you really set up the thread for with your 14 post rant about SF.

"Who do you think will win the next election"?,Yeah Right.

realdanbreen

I'm one of the few who actually said who I gave no 1 to and will do again Joe Hannigan-ind Tipperary.

is_that_so

bunderoon wrote: »

Not a fan of SF but it is clear here that FG and FF are in bed together.
If SF were able to tackle even one area where FF and FG failed (or made their buddies millions) then it would highlight how both parties really dont represent the people.

How could they tackle one area without getting into power? As for representing people they had about 500k voters each.

Conall Cernach

osarusan wrote: »

Who will do the best job of convincing the public that the second election so soon after the first is the fault of (insert party here)?

FG have already started this by coming out and saying it's up to SF to form a government.

Surely it should be up to FF seeing as they have the most seats.

realdanbreen

Now that FG and FF have ruled out forming a government with SF mainly they say because the SF manifesto is simply pie in the sky is it not now time for SF to concede that they cannot form a government and stop this pretending that they can.

tipptom

Looks like there will be no election.

FF/FG,Lowry,Greens it is.

Denis o Brien,Owen o Callaghan,wolves and cute Tipperary heurs will be so happy.

If it has forced their hands to do something for all the people then the SF votes and their transfers have done the country a great service.

Fann Linn

realdanbreen wrote: »

Now that FG and FF have ruled out forming a government with SF mainly they say because the SF manifesto is simply pie in the sky is it not now time for SF to concede that they cannot form a government and stop this pretending that they can.

And become the main opposition party.

joe40

realdanbreen wrote: »

Now that FG and FF have ruled out forming a government with SF mainly they say because the SF manifesto is simply pie in the sky is it not now time for SF to concede that they cannot form a government and stop this pretending that they can.

Yeah Fianna Fail and Fine Gael can drop the charade that there is in difference between them and let Sinn Fein be the main opposition party.

tipptom

Fann Linn wrote: »

And become the main opposition party.

Should not have even contemplated going in with FF/FG before the election and should have made that clear, especially to even consider FF who are the most corrupt party in the history of the state.

realdanbreen

joe40 wrote: »

Yeah Fianna Fail and Fine Gael can drop the charade that there is in difference between them and let Sinn Fein be the main opposition party.

Do you really think SF are going to get away with sitting on the opposition yet again criticising and drawing money doing nothing! . No way, let's just have an election and be done with it.

ThunbergsAreGo

realdanbreen wrote: »

Do you really think SF are going to get away with sitting on the opposition yet again criticising and drawing money doing nothing! . No way, let's just have an election and be done with it.

Yes I do, they have been doing it for years

joe40

realdanbreen wrote: »

Do you really think SF are going to get away with sitting on the opposition yet again criticising and drawing money doing nothing! . No way, let's just have an election and be done with it.

Sinn Fein have no option but to be in opposition if neither Fianna Fail or Fine Gael are willing to go into coalition with them. There aren't the numbers for any alternative.
Sinn Fein have clearly expressed a wish to be in government, but it's not up to them now.

Loafing Oaf

realdanbreen wrote: »

is it not now time for SF to concede that they cannot form a government and stop this pretending that they can.

Do they explicitly say they hope to form a non-FG/FF government from this 'networking'? Eoin O'Broin on tv the other night said he did not believe that was possible and the object of the exercise was to put together a loose left alliance to negotiate with FF, if that party was interested...

ShylockWept

realdanbreen wrote: »

Do you really think SF are going to get away with sitting on the opposition yet again criticising and drawing money doing nothing! . No way, let's just have an election and be done with it.

We had an election last weekend, we have a result. We will not have another one, and even if we did nothing will change. The issue in Waterford will not sway things, one way or the other.

We have to go through the motions now - FF have to create the pretense of allowing SF to see if they can get the numbers; FF have to further create the pretense than they are interested in forming a govt. will smaller parties; FG will create the pretense that they are happy to be out of government

Backchannel communications are meanwhile open - red lines, etc. FG want tax cuts, FF want more investment. The negotiations are probably mostly over. They just need to weave the Green's red lines.

The inevitable will be an FF-FG-Green coalition, with a rotating Taoiseach at 2.5 years; MM as Taoiseach and LV as Tánaiste. FF will get finance, housing, health, agriculture and justice; FG will get foreign affairs, public expenditure, business, and whatever remains. Greens will get climate and possibly transport. FG will go in other these terms as they can take credit for economy and trade deal, and they shed health and housing.

FF are probably meeting SDs as an insurance policy.

SF will do well as main opposition party.

Idbatterim

I think the greens could pick up more seats, if the dropped the proposed carbon tax increases. A proper transport system for dublin , would take insane amounts of traffic off the road. The metro line in planning, would take 100,000,000 a year, from opening (if built to metro to Sandyford as originally planned). Surely the massive carbon savings, will come from the win / win of providing way better public transport, not just in dublin, but elsewhere. There is going to be a big move to electric organically anyway. If you want to reduce fossil fuel powered cars (at the pump), just up the tax and vrt from the next budget, say to a minimim of E500 a year for new cars...

they will forever be stuck on a low number of seats, with their current policies...

Loafing Oaf

ShylockWept wrote: »

We had an election last weekend, we have a result. We will not have another one, and even if we did nothing will change. The issue in Waterford will not sway things, one way or the other.

We have to go through the motions now - FF have to create the pretense of allowing SF to see if they can get the numbers; FF have to further create the pretense than they are interested in forming a govt. will smaller parties; FG will create the pretense that they are happy to be out of government

Backchannel communications are meanwhile open - red lines, etc. FG want tax cuts, FF want more investment. The negotiations are probably mostly over. They just need to weave the Green's red lines.

The inevitable will be an FF-FG-Green coalition, with a rotating Taoiseach at 2.5 years; MM as Taoiseach and LV as Tánaiste. FF will get finance, housing, health, agriculture and justice; FG will get foreign affairs, public expenditure, business, and whatever remains. Greens will get climate and possibly transport. FG will go in other these terms as they can take credit for economy and trade deal, and they shed health and housing.

FF are probably meeting SDs as an insurance policy.

SF will do well as main opposition party.

Wouldn't say it's a done deal just yet; strong body of opinion in FF opposed to any deal with FG. Odds on a second GE this year have come in from 5/2 to 15/8 this evening...

efanton

Idbatterim wrote: »

I think the greens could pick up more seats, if the dropped the proposed carbon tax increases. A proper transport system for dublin , would take insane amounts of traffic off the road. The metro line in planning, would take 100,000,000 a year, from opening (if built to metro to Sandyford as originally planned). Surely the massive carbon savings, will come from the win / win of providing way better public transport, not just in dublin, but elsewhere. There is going to be a big move to electric organically anyway. If you want to reduce fossil fuel powered cars (at the pump), just up the tax and vrt from the next budget, say to a minimim of E500 a year for new cars...

they will forever be stuck on a low number of seats, with their current policies...

I think the opposite.

f there was another general election called SF would definitely field more candidates.
There would be a transfers agreement by those parties that would form a left of centre government.
Those two changes alone would eat into the Green vote.

But then you would have the electorate, and factor in how they perceived the results of the general election. Knowing how close SF came to kicking both FF and FG out of government, many who did not vote SF in the recent general election would be encouraged to do so. Many who voted for smaller parties (Greens included) would be tempted to give their 1st preference to SF and their 2nd preference to the party they previously voted for to ensure SF got across the line in terms of seats.

I would imagine that with the current situation many that voted FG or FF seeing that there was a huge appetite for a non FF or FG government might be tempted to vote Green. This could possibly keep the Green seats as they are but I doubt we would see an increase in Green seats, unless the Greens entered into a pre-election pact to form a left of centre government. I cant see them doing it, the Green are the new Labour, the whore party of the Dail that will be happy to join any government if it means that even one of two of their policies get enacted.

osarusan

Conall Cernach wrote: »

Surely it should be up to FF seeing as they have the most seats.

I don't think SF can take that approach given how much they talked about having being given a mandate for change and all that.

Loafing Oaf

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

Wouldn't say it's a done deal just yet; strong body of opinion in FF opposed to any deal with FG. Odds on a second GE this year have come in from 5/2 to 15/8 this evening...

And surprise surprise backing up this point is Dev (not so) Og (anymore):

‘Significant people’ in Fianna Fáil oppose Fine Gael deal, says Ó Cuív

But he would say that wouldn't he?

is_that_so

Loafing Oaf wrote: »

And surprise surprise backing up this point is Dev (not so) Og (anymore):

‘Significant people’ in Fianna Fáil oppose Fine Gael deal, says Ó Cuív

But he would say that wouldn't he?

It is not a choice many would embrace willingly, no more than on the other side of the fence.

Loafing Oaf

is_that_so wrote: »

It is not a choice many would embrace willingly, no more than on the other side of the fence.

I don't believe there will be much serious pushback within FG when the rubber hits the road. Not so sure about FF yet.

firemansam4

FG and FF should both supply SF with a confidence and supply agreement for a minority government, that way they can't lose out to each other for doing it.
Then the ball is firmly with SF then to see what they can do. If things start to get real ugly with the economy they can both pull the plug.

If FG and FF form the next government with the Greens and others, then SF will be by far the largest party next election IMO.

smurgen

gmisk wrote: »

Errr Maria Bailey?

That wan also seems to drink during the day on the radio.Seaaaaaaannnn!