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Who will win the election in a few months time?

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    #62
    efanton
    Registered Users Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    realdanbreen wrote: »
    Do you really think SF are going to get away with sitting on the opposition yet again criticising and drawing money doing nothing! . No way, let's just have an election and be done with it.

    Its not SF that's deciding to sit on the opposition benches.

    That decision is being made for them by FF and FG.


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    #63
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users Posts: 7,449 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    efanton wrote: »
    Its not SF that's deciding to sit on the opposition benches.

    That decision is being made for them by FF and FG.

    Mary Lou said after the election it would be a disaster of FF or FG got into government.

    She can't back track on that now.


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    #64
    Rufeo
    Closed Accounts Posts: 503 ✭✭✭Rufeo


    So if FF or FG changed their manifesto to focus on housing and health?


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    #65
    Edgware
    Registered Users Posts: 5,874 ✭✭✭Edgware


    efanton wrote: »
    Its not SF that's deciding to sit on the opposition benches.

    That decision is being made for them by FF and FG.

    Welcome to democracy


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    #66
    efanton
    Registered Users Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    Mary Lou said after the election it would be a disaster of FF or FG got into government.

    She can't back track on that now.

    And she will not. She has no need too.

    This election has been a disaster for both FF and FG. Im listening to FF and FG party members I know and they are absolutely livid. If they could have their party leaders head on a plate tomorrow morning it wouldn't be soon enough.

    I think you miss the point, as has the leadership of both FF and FG.
    It doesn't matter what SF say or SF think, they are not the problem.
    The problem is you have the two leading parties both losing over 10 seats each at a general election and their part leaders getting elected after the 5 count. This is unheard of.

    The only reason FF and FG are not demanding another election immediately is that they know they would lose yet more front benches even if SF did not increase their number of seats but that is pretty unlikely. Its a lose/lose situation for both parties. If they call an election and they will get hammered further, if they form a government they know it will have to be the best government that this state has ever had and they will have to U-turn on a lot of policies if they want to prevent being wiped out in a subsequent election.

    Mary Lou is not getting what she wants, but the point is the way FF and FG are handling the situation she is guaranteed to get what she wants in a subsequent general election whether that be in a months time or 4 or 5 years down the line.


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    #67
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users Posts: 7,449 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    efanton wrote: »
    And she will not. She has no need too.

    This election has been a disaster for both FF and FG. Im listening to FF and FG party members I know and they are absolutely livid. If they could have their party leaders head on a plate tomorrow morning it wouldn't be soon enough.

    I think you miss the point, as has the leadership of both FF and FG.
    It doesn't matter what SF say or SF think, they are not the problem.
    The problem is you have the two leading parties both losing over 10 seats each at a general election and their part leaders getting elected after the 5 count. This is unheard of.

    The only reason FF and FG are not demanding another election immediately is that they know they would lose yet more front benches even if SF did not increase their number of seats but that is pretty unlikely. Its a lose/lose situation for both parties. If they call an election and they will get hammered further, if they form a government they know it will have to be the best government that this state has ever had and they will have to U-turn on a lot of policies if they want to prevent being wiped out in a subsequent election.

    Mary Lou is not getting what she wants, but the point is the way FF and FG are handling the situation she is guaranteed to get what she wants in a subsequent general election whether that be in a months time or 4 or 5 years down the line.

    Bring it on.

    Lets see what they can do.


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    #68
    efanton
    Registered Users Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    Bring it on.

    Lets see what they can do.

    You're not quoting Mary Lou again are you?

    Personally I am hoping for another General Election. A lot of people I have spoke too who dont like SF are looking for another election too.
    THe point you dont get, is a lot of people dont like SF, but given the current choice they are now prepared to give them one opportunity to prove themselves.
    If another election is forced by FF they are going to pay heavily at the polls.

    We both know what is going to happen, so you can put the bravado back where ever you store it, Micheal Martin has no other choice but to accept a FF/FG coalition knowing that it is likely to destroy his party in the long run.
    But better that and become Taoiseach than go down in history as the only FF leader that failed so badly that he was never taoiseach. He knows if a general election is called he is committing political suicide.

    But like you said, bring it on


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    #69
    Jinglejangle69
    Registered Users Posts: 7,449 ✭✭✭Jinglejangle69


    efanton wrote: »
    You're not quoting Mary Lou again are you?

    Personally I am hoping for another General Election. A lot of people I have spoke too who dont like SF are looking for another election too.
    THe point you dont get, is a lot of people dont like SF, but given the current choice they are now prepared to give them one opportunity to prove themselves.
    If another election is forced by FF they are going to pay heavily at the polls.

    We both know what is going to happen, so you can put the bravado back where ever you store it, Micheal Martin has no other choice but to accept a FF/FG coalition knowing that it is likely to destroy his party in the long run.
    But better that and become Taoiseach than go down in history as the only FF leader that failed so badly that he was never taoiseach. He knows if a general election is called he is committing political suicide.

    But like you said, bring it on

    Yes as I said bring in SF as the largest party.

    I get it, I want SF in power as the largest party.


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    #70
    SafeSurfer
    Registered Users Posts: 6,519 ✭✭✭SafeSurfer


    Jinglejangle69 wrote: »
    Yes as I said bring in SF as the largest party.

    I get it, I want SF in power as the largest party.

    Sinn Fein being the largest party after the next election will not automatically see them get into government. SF seat gains will likely be at the expense of left wing parties and independents that they would be relying on to get into power. They would just be a bigger opposition party.

    Multo autem ad rem magis pertinet quallis tibi vide aris quam allis



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    #71
    efanton
    Registered Users Posts: 1,164 ✭✭✭efanton


    SafeSurfer wrote: »
    Sinn Fein being the largest party after the next election will not automatically see them get into government. SF seat gains will likely be at the expense of left wing parties and independents that they would be relying on to get into power. They would just be a bigger opposition party.

    YES and NO

    SF made two mistakes that they will not make again.
    They didnt field enough candidates and they didnt have a transfer strategy in place with the parties that they would rely on to form a government.

    If another election is called the number of SF seats is definitely going to go up, but not necessarily at the expense of the smaller parties.
    SF had huge transfer potential in the latest election. Most of which was complete wasted as those votes were not transferred to like minded parties.
    FF and FG are likely to lose a few seats or gain a few seats if another election is called. The big losers will be the independents, many voted for them as a protest vote against FF and FG, now given a potential option of another party forming a government may will vote tactically, voting SF 1st and then giving their transfer to their local independent.

    So will the smaller parties suffer at the expense of SF, I dont think so with a solid transfer agreement in place, but the independents could lose heavily.

    The problem is SF realistically are looking to get about 45 seat to do what they want do, that is form a left of centre government not involving FF or FG.
    That's not impossible for SF, but its not going to be as simple as fielding more candidates


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