Ireland in 3 years under a left wing government.

IAMAMORON

StupidLikeAFox wrote: »

Slab Murphy to be appointed as minister for cross border trade maybe?

At least he has experience.

Cheerful Spring2

mullinr2 wrote: »

What would Ireland look like in 3 to 5 years if the lefties get their way?
I reckon there would be a high unemployment rate due to many multinationals upping sticks because of higher taxes. Not only will this affect those jobs in those industries, it would have a knock on affect in the service industry.
We would also be further away from a United Ireland. A border poll showing that people in the North don't want to be part of a leftist state and would be financially better off in the UK.
By abolishing the USC and Property Taxes along with many multinationals leaving, the government has **** all money to spend.

How do you see Ireland under a left government? Be realistic.

Pearse Doherty also said that his party's plans will deliver a surplus of over €3 billion annually.

"We are committed to maintaining the 12.5% Corporation Tax rate and supporting R&D," he said.

https://www.rte.ie/news/election-2020/2020/0204/1113152-ibec-sinn-fein-manifesto/

The status quo, not changing. Most of the CEOs live outside this country, they just care about profits and there costs not rising to produce goods.

nthclare

It won't be hard to find locations to film movies similar to Angela's Ashes and movies similar.

Anyone working in tourism or hospitality will probably be ok, tourism will be a big thing, people will be definitely brought down a peg or two..

Already a lot of the semistates and state jobs will be peppering it because their cushy manager's positions which were politically motivated will be in jeopardy.

Especially Airports, County Councils and hospitals.

Mefistofelino

Cheerful Spring2 wrote: »

Pearse Doherty also said that his party's plans will deliver a surplus of over €3 billion annually.

"We are committed to maintaining the 12.5% Corporation Tax rate and supporting R&D," he said.

An armagnac in one hand and the ballot box in the other?

griffdaddy

Any chance da weed will be freed?

Donadea Leo

Why are so many people so afraid of change. I keep hearing about the electorate being young and naive and not old enough to know the history of sinn Fein, those older if us certainly don't forget the past, most of out generation and older vote for whoever their family supported in the civil war. I m not sure who exactly is naive.

We have one of the highest proportions of billionaires in the world, lots of very serious wealth yet we have a huge homelessness crisis, we promote inequality without shame in our health service, if you have health insurance you can have your ingrown toenail reviewed within a week or two yet without you could be waiting 5 years for a test for some test for a terminal illness. Can anyone here really stand over a system that allows this type of inequality to thrive.
It remains to be seen if sinn fein can form a government. If they do, I can't imagine they ll be able to stick rigidly to their manifesto and deliver everything they ve promised (they certainly wouldn't 't be the first party to not deliver all their promises) but if they can improve the lives of the people who need it most I.e. people who are homeless, people in need of a fairer better quality health service, they ll have done a damn good job. I m happy to let them try cause it certainly isn't happening under the last government or the one before that or the one before that.

shesty

Honestly I don't think much will change.
SF will be hamstrung by the Dept of Finance pointing out that there is no money to do all the stuff they have promised to do. The electorate that voted them in isn't prepared to pay extra tax, or accept cuts in things like social welfare in order to afford SF's plans.
We want change but we aren't prepared to put our money where our mouth is as a nation.

tayto lover

shesty wrote: »

Honestly I don't think much will change.
SF will be hamstrung by the Dept of Finance pointing out that there is no money to do all the stuff they have promised to do. The electorate that voted them in isn't prepared to pay extra tax, or accept cuts in things like social welfare in order to afford SF's plans.
We want change but we aren't prepared to put our money where our mouth is as a nation.

Ffs the lads who don’t work but vote SF will crack up.
They were expecting a rise and a free house.

Bill 2.0

Donadea Leo wrote: »

We have one of the highest proportions of billionaires in the world, lots of very serious wealth yet we have a huge homelessness crisis,

We have a lot of billionaires because we are a very wealthy country.


A huge homeless crisis? .2% of the population isn't a huge anything, it's a rounding error.

douglashyde

- They'll nationalise housing - in effect building swaths of social/council housing on public land at higher costs than the private sector as you can't massively ramp up supply without an counteracting effect, driving up costs. There's potential for new Ballymuns / Tallaghts resulting from this. The number of homeless will continue to decrease (the number of rough sleepers will remain the same)

- They'll make sweeping changes to the private rental sector (rent freezes, more rights to tenants, higher taxes on landlords and REITs) - Short-term (3 years) this will decrease supply of private landlords into the market in turn reducing the short term supply of rental properties available- rentals will become more difficult to secure for private renters.

- We will see a modest but impactful increase in income tax on top tier jobs in tech (80,000 currently directly employed by tech in Ireland), medical professionals, self employed entrepreneurs - they'll fly the banner "social equality". These are a highly in-demand professionals, many will look to relocate to countries with similarly excellent living conditions as Ireland but that doesn't see a higher tier of 60%+ on income tax.

- Very slight (in the short term) tax increases will be made to the corporate tax rate, this alongside increased income tax for it's workers will lead to a reduction but not exodus of Foreign direct investment in Ireland along with it's jobs- this will reduce Ireland's tax take in 2-3 years. Long term we would see this corporate rate increase as a left government tries to plug the budget hole however.

- Tax breaks will decrease and capital gain tax will increase for Investors/moneymen (a demonised group) & startups - who invest in mixed assets in Ireland, this will see a sharp decrease in domestic and international investment in Ireland as the money goes to more favourable tax locations.

I'm no fan of Tatcher, but as she said "The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money"

The best scenario I can personally see out of this a failed government after 6 months with min. damage. FF/FG government with a complete shake up to address rental and affordable homes through tax breaks and incentives (diverting money away from commercial construction) and increased investment in trades and apprenticeships. Health... f$£k$d I know.

jimmycrackcorm

splinter65 wrote: »

People have voted for SF based on their extensively publicized manifesto and all its promises. Why on earth else do you imagine they voted for them when they never voted for them before?

Is it the same reason that poorer people are more prone to buying lotto tickets?

jimmycrackcorm

Anthony Fit Technician wrote: »

I'm looking forward to them doing what 100 years of government couldn't do. Give us a state where housing, health, childcare and infrastructure are perfect and we are not bankrupt.

Like Cuba?

tayto lover

tayto lover wrote: »

I haven’t seen the Sinn Fein manifesto.
Could anyone point me in the direction of it please.

Here you go. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/cianan-brennan-the-sinn-fein-manifesto-what-is-doable-what-is-not-981202.html

Achasanai

_Brian wrote: »

If you want to get a glimpse of how bad policy affects the real world look at housing, the left moaned and insisted landlords we’re reigned in and taxed heavily, they left the market in droves and now the rental stock is a mere fraction of what It was, multiply this across most industry and you see how the left increasing taxation on “the wealthy” will affect the economy.

When did this happen though? I've heard that this is the case over the last decade or so, which would have been during the lifetime of Fine Gael. The left can 'moan' all they like, but surely can't be blamed for something that happened under Fine Gael?

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

The economics of socialism just do not stand up. You simply cannot spend what you cant earn or ever payback.

America's ever-increasing debt would suggest it's a huge problem with capitalism too.

Idbatterim

I'm no fan of Tatcher, but as she said "The trouble with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money"

the massive multinationals etc, have more money than god and are charged a pittance, so that isnt quite true. I am not agreeing with the transfer of wealth from comparies or hard working people , to benefit huge amounts of scroungers here, but the banks and companies , are charged nowhere near the point of diminishing returns or danger of them going elsewhere etc

ednwireland

Originally Posted by tayto lover
I haven’t seen the Sinn Fein manifesto.
Could anyone point me in the direction of it please.

Deleted User wrote: »

Here you go. https://www.irishexaminer.com/breakingnews/views/analysis/cianan-brennan-the-sinn-fein-manifesto-what-is-doable-what-is-not-981202.html

or even https://www.sinnfein.ie/files/2020/SF_GE2020_Manifesto.pdf from the horses mouth

Idbatterim

the bloody irony is, Varadkar must have thought FG that he was actually running a left wing party these last few years, because if Fg rewarded those that voted them in, they would still be the largest party! I think he flew a kite one day and the public wanted more tax and more spending, pity they werent FG voters :rolleyes:

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

the massive multinationals etc, have more money than god and are charged a pittance, so that isnt quite true. I am not agreeing with the transfer of wealth from comparies or hard working people , to benefit huge amounts of scroungers here, but the banks and companies , are charged nowhere near the point of diminishing returns or danger of them going elsewhere etc

How do you know?

I mean it. Profit is king for these organisations. They're international companies with no real loyalty to any nation, although some might make token gestures to the US. They'll go where they can make the most profits. There are plenty of countries in Europe which would bend over backwards to encourage these multinationals entry into their economies, and being a native English country is no longer as amazing since many eastern countries have developed highly skilled English speakers of their own. They've had decades of preferential treatment in Ireland, and if that is dropped, why would they stay to face a semi-hostile government....?

So... how do you know that they won't leave when the costs rise (both for themselves and their workforce), and they're not getting the bribes to stay?

Charles Babbage

Given the usual speed of Irish politicans implementing their manifestos, in 3 years I would expect feck all change.

Idbatterim

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you know?

I mean it. Profit is king for these organisations. They're international companies with no real loyalty to any nation, although some might make token gestures to the US. They'll go where they can make the most profits. There are plenty of countries in Europe which would bend over backwards to encourage these multinationals entry into their economies, and being a native English country is no longer as amazing since many eastern countries have developed highly skilled English speakers of their own.

So... how do you know that they won't leave when the costs rise (both for themselves and their workforce), and they're not getting the bribes to stay?

there are far too many, paying little to no tax. When they are making a killing here, they are going to move, because they make a fraction less of a killing? Some might, I wouldnt be scared of it though. They use this a weapon and threat. Sure wouldnt it suit them better, if they didnt pay any tax? Yet the working man here, is taxed at a marginal rate of FIFTY percent.

Boredstiff666

Idbatterim wrote: »

the massive multinationals etc, have more money than god and are charged a pittance, so that isnt quite true. I am not agreeing with the transfer of wealth from comparies or hard working people , to benefit huge amounts of scroungers here, but the banks and companies , are charged nowhere near the point of diminishing returns or danger of them going elsewhere etc

Yeah the lefties tried that in the UK in the late 1970's.........everybody left thats why so many celebs ended up in Ireland.

So taxing those people more will just send them away. The only reason they are in Ireland anyway is because of the tax and tax payers money they receive. Take either one off them and they will go.

Yellow_Fern

Charles Babbage wrote: »

Given the usual speed of Irish politicans implementing their manifestos, in 3 years I would expect feck all change.

The manifesto would require breath taking speed to implement but a lot of damage could be done for example ending property tax, cutting UCS and ending the Apple appeal. We should take it lightly, Sinn Fein are a threat. Take for example, income taxes, they plan to cut taxes on the bottom 95% of workers and increase taxes on the top 5 % topping out at with a marginal rate of over 57%. Bear in mind we are already 52% which is 8% above the ideal rate from a government revenue-maximising perspective according to the IMF. We are already punishing work out of ideology without even a return for the tax payer.

Idbatterim

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Yeah the lefties tried that in the UK in the late 1970's.........everybody left thats why so many celebs ended up in Ireland.

So taxing those people more will just send them away. The only reason they are in Ireland anyway is because of the tax and tax payers money they receive. Take either one off them and they will go.

nobody is talking about taxing them at penal rates, just not farcially low ones. Everyone sticks up for the companies, do you think taxing labour at FIFTY percent is a sound strategy?!

Idbatterim

Idbatterim wrote: »

there are far too many, paying little to no tax. When they are making a killing here, they are going to move, because they make a fraction less of a killing? Some might, I wouldnt be scared of it though. They use this a weapon and threat. Sure wouldnt it suit them better, if they didnt pay any tax? Yet the working man here, is taxed at a marginal rate of FIFTY percent.

So, realistically speaking, you don't know.

Instead, you talk about other things, to vaguely justify your opinion. You wouldn't be scared of it, because you don't care about the direct revenue intake from them, the income taxes on the salaries their staff pay, the vat that their employees generate, etc... all of which is needed to power the economy. You wouldn't care because I'm guessing you're one of those people not afraid of Ireland increasing it's national debt... and you're not afraid because it'll all just be grand. Somehow, something will happen to replace that revenue lost. Yup.

Yellow_Fern

Boredstiff666 wrote: »

Yeah the lefties tried that in the UK in the late 1970's.........everybody left thats why so many celebs ended up in Ireland.

So taxing those people more will just send them away. The only reason they are in Ireland anyway is because of the tax and tax payers money they receive. Take either one off them and they will go.

Just to add to this. The extraordinary Chester Beatty Museum in Dublin was founded to house the collection of the oil tycoon who moved to Ireland to escape the penal taxes of postwar UK. So not just talk.

growleaves

Deleted User wrote: »

How do you know?

I mean it. Profit is king for these organisations. They're international companies with no real loyalty to any nation, although some might make token gestures to the US. They'll go where they can make the most profits. There are plenty of countries in Europe which would bend over backwards to encourage these multinationals entry into their economies, and being a native English country is no longer as amazing since many eastern countries have developed highly skilled English speakers of their own. They've had decades of preferential treatment in Ireland, and if that is dropped, why would they stay to face a semi-hostile government....?

So... how do you know that they won't leave when the costs rise (both for themselves and their workforce), and they're not getting the bribes to stay?

I don't doubt you.

What about taxing domestic banks? AIB won't move to Tuscany and become Allied Italian Bank.

Pascal Donohoe's objection to this was that it would raise the share price and that's bad because lots of Irish people hold bank shares.

What do you think?

growleaves

growleaves wrote: »

I don't doubt you.

What about taxing domestic banks? AIB won't move to Tuscany and become Allied Italian Bank.

Pascal Donohoe's objection to this was that it would raise the share price and that's bad because lots of Irish people hold bank shares.

What do you think?

Oh, I'd be fully in favor of hitting the banks. They're already fleecing the Irish people. The raising of share price wouldn't be the issue though... it's the lower dividends for their shareholders and smaller bonuses for their management.

But No objections there at all, from me.

sondagefaux

Portugal three years into a left-wing government.

LISBON — Ramón Rivera had barely gotten his olive oil business started in the sun-swept Alentejo region of Portugal when Europe’s debt crisis struck. The economy crumbled, wages were cut, and unemployment doubled. The government in Lisbon had to accept a humiliating international bailout.

But as the misery deepened, Portugal took a daring stand: In 2015, it cast aside the harshest austerity measures its European creditors had imposed, igniting a virtuous cycle that put its economy back on a path to growth. The country reversed cuts to wages, pensions and social security, and offered incentives to businesses.

The government’s U-turn, and willingness to spend, had a powerful effect. Creditors railed against the move, but the gloom that had gripped the nation through years of belt-tightening began to lift. Business confidence rebounded. Production and exports began to take off — including at Mr. Rivera’s olive groves.
“We had faith that Portugal would come out of the crisis,” said Mr. Rivera, the general manager of Elaia. The company focused on state-of-the-art harvesting technology, and it is now one of Portugal’s biggest olive oil producers. “We saw that this was the best place in the world to invest.”

...

The renewal is visible just about everywhere. Hotels, restaurants and shops have opened in droves, fueled by a tourism surge that has helped cut unemployment in half. In the Beato district of Lisbon, a mega-campus for start-ups rises from the rubble of a derelict military factory. Bosch, Google and Mercedes-Benz recently opened offices and digital research centers here, collectively employing thousands.

Foreign investment in aerospace, construction and other sectors is at a record high. And traditional Portuguese industries, including textiles and paper mills, are putting money into innovation, driving a boom in exports.
“What happened in Portugal shows that too much austerity deepens a recession, and creates a vicious circle,” Prime Minister António Costa said in an interview. “We devised an alternative to austerity, focusing on higher growth, and more and better jobs.”

Voters ushered Mr. Costa, a center-left leader, into power in late 2015 after he promised to reverse cuts to their income, which the previous government had approved to reduce Portugal’s high deficit under the terms of an international bailout of 78 billion euros, or $90 billion. Mr. Costa formed an unusual alliance with Communist and radical-left parties, which had been shut out of power since the end of Portugal’s dictatorship in 1974. They united with the goal of beating back some of the toughest aspects of austerity, while balancing the books to meet eurozone rules.

The government raised public sector salaries, the minimum wage and pensions and even restored the amount of vacation days to prebailout levels over objections from creditors like Germany and the International Monetary Fund. Incentives to stimulate business included development subsidies, tax credits and funding for small and midsize companies.

Mr. Costa made up for the givebacks with cuts in infrastructure and other spending, whittling the annual budget deficit to less than 1 percent of its gross domestic product, compared with 4.4 percent when he took office. The government is on track to achieve a surplus by 2020, a year ahead of schedule, ending a quarter-century of deficits.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/22/business/portugal-economy-austerity.html

Tremble in fear!

douglashyde

Idbatterim wrote: »

the massive multinationals etc, have more money than god and are charged a pittance, so that isnt quite true. I am not agreeing with the transfer of wealth from comparies or hard working people , to benefit huge amounts of scroungers here, but the banks and companies , are charged nowhere near the point of diminishing returns or danger of them going elsewhere etc

About 20% of employment is directly FDI (not inc. indirect employment) generating a significant amount of income tax, also 11bn was paid in corporate tax in 2019.

We can't compete like a large economy and we need to offer a range of incentives from talent, infrastructure and tax.

A populist vote to the left while people's intentions are good, will none the less (ironically) have the opposite effect in the long term.

Fred Cryton

We have got to keep those Shinners out for as long as possible. Pascal having to reassure the multinationals today to continue to invest. I work with multinationals and this country is going down the toilet if SF get in. Give it 5 years and FF /FG can co-ordinate at the next election, perhaps stepping aside in certain constituencies to help the other. The situation is that serious people, the country is really on the edge of a precipice now. If you are middle class, the enemy are at the gates.