Why not have another GE

dxhound2005

Just on a general note. There have been much bigger movements in voting patterns in the past. This latest one is being made out to be somehow unique. It is different for the fact that SF have arrived as a third force.

But back in the 1980's before they were on the scene (when they did not recognise the Dáil as a legitimate assembly) there were three elections within the space of 18 months to finally settle matters. So another election would not be unprecedented.

Mike_C

Mike_C wrote: »

So FF say they won’t talk to SF because they said they would pre election. They also said they wouldn’t go back into gov with FG. The numbers therefore don’t add up for any minority gov so why not just call election no 2 now......see if the people really want change

So it's decided. We'll have another Mass.

Dampsquid

There is no benefit of FG propping up a FF/Greens gov with a confidence and supply arrangement. They will get punished at the next election if there is no improvement to housing/health, and will not get any credit if there is improvements.

They need to go into government to make a difference, and to implement policies that people voted them in for.

FF thought they were doing the country a favour last time, but were tarred with the same brush for FG failures at the election.

I can't see any other outcome other than back to the polls in 6 weeks

STB.

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Just on a general note. There have been much bigger movements in voting patterns in the past. This latest one is being made out to be somehow unique. It is different for the fact that SF have arrived as a third force.

But back in the 1980's before they were on the scene (when they did not recognise the Dáil as a legitimate assembly) there were three elections within the space of 18 months to finally settle matters. So another election would not be unprecedented.

SF are running away with themselves. The centre right parties have 73 seats between the two of them.

The biggest movement in this election has actually been missed. The Greens had a 500% increase in seats over 2016.

The 15 extra seats that SF gained over 2016 is directly connected to the demise of the Labour Party, who were seen as a safe coalition partner when people got sick of pick your centre right party in the past. That was until they went into government in 2011 and broke all their promises. They lost 31 seats in 2016. Labour now have approx 15% of what seats they had in 2011.

Change is just a word. Capability is another.


SF don't have the numbers. There will not be a second election.

dxhound2005

Dampsquid wrote: »

There is no benefit of FG propping up a FF/Greens gov with a confidence and supply arrangement. They will get punished at the next election if there is no improvement to housing/health, and will not get any credit if there is improvements.

They need to go into government to make a difference, and to implement policies that people voted them in for.

FF thought they were doing the country a favour last time, but were tarred with the same brush for FG failures at the election.

I can't see any other outcome other than back to the polls in 6 weeks

If SF got 50 or 55 seats they would likely be taking some from other Left TD's who came in on SF transfers. That would still see them having to get a collection of others to make up the numbers. I would need to examine every constituency to see what are the chances. Could they go for three in Donegal, in Cavan/Monaghan and in Louth?

James Brown

The good thing is even together FF/FG can't form a government. It bodes well for the possibility of a healthy democratic future.

dxhound2005

Bowie wrote: »

The good thing is even together FF/FG can't form a government. It bodes well for the possibility of a healthy democratic future.

We could be heading the way of Israel, which has a vibrant democracy.

joe40

The only solution to the impasse is a FF FG coalition with smaller party support.
They big parties however, want to avoid this for their own party political reasons rather than for the good of the country.

James Brown

dxhound2005 wrote: »

We could be heading the way of Israel, which has a vibrant democracy.

Is that a joke? Have you got a problem with the electorate having more viable options than FF/FG in the future?

dxhound2005

joe40 wrote: »

The only solution to the impasse is a FF FG coalition with smaller party support.
They big parties however, want to avoid this for their own party political reasons rather than for the good of the country.

And if they arrive at this solution, some people will say that the big parties did it for party political reasons, rather than for the good of the country.

James Brown

dxhound2005 wrote: »

And if they arrive at this solution, some people will say that the big parties did it for party political reasons, rather than for the good of the country.

So damned if they do, damned if they don't, so may as well be grown ups. What happened to 'stability'?

dxhound2005

Bowie wrote: »

Is that a joke? Have you got a problem with the electorate having more viable options than FF/FG in the future?

Other countries have democracies which get results like we got. Governments are formed and they come and go. Nothing wrong with it. And if it means the complete disappearance of FF and FG which you seem to want, so be it.

Spanish Eyes

If say FFG get together, then MM will be TS. That seems to be all he wants.

Grand let him have his day in the sun. But there are issues to be solved pronto.

Could be a good thing at the end of the day. Take the wind out of SF and Left sails and FF/FG try to do what SF say they can do in a week lol.

Interesting times ahead.

Sad that SF this time around won't have to put their money where their mouths are though. Continue to snipe from the sidelines. Bet there will be sighs of relief though if they do not have to play Senior Hurling in Gov.

Sir Oxman

Guy:Incognito wrote: »

They said before the election they wouldn't be talking to SF. Now people moan that they are sticking to what they said.
The election was held with everyone in full knowledge those 2 parties said they wouldn't be dealing with SF.

"We want politicians to stick to their word, except when it suits us"

And that immeasurably helped SF achieve the most votes and 37/42 seats.
It only appealed to their bases and even then not all of it, not the floating voter.

WealthyB

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

Bet there will be sighs of relief though if they do not have to play Senior Hurling in Gov.

I cant take any more sporting parlance, whether its half time on Brexit, Senior Hurling, balls in other people's courts and leaders taking the ball and running with it... and while I'm here can anyone find this plate everyone is supposed to step up to

dxhound2005

WealthyB wrote: »

I cant take any more sporting parlance, whether its half time on Brexit, Senior Hurling, balls in other people's courts and leaders taking the ball and running with it... and while I'm here can anyone find this plate everyone is supposed to step up to

Backstop. That was another one.

Sir Oxman

dxhound2005 wrote: »

Just on a general note. There have been much bigger movements in voting patterns in the past. This latest one is being made out to be somehow unique. It is different for the fact that SF have arrived as a third force.

The difference is there is nothing seat wise between the three parties.
Labour in 92 and 2011 were by far the junior party.
Also, winning the national vote is game changing.
But this shift, if it is a permanent shift won't be tested until the next election for sure.

dxhound2005 wrote: »

But back in the 1980's before they were on the scene (when they did not recognise the Dáil as a legitimate assembly) there were three elections within the space of 18 months to finally settle matters. So another election would not be unprecedented.

Yes, I don't understand the horror of another election coming from some quarters.
It's not unusual here and it's not unusual elsewhere.

Jinglejangle69

Sinn Féin get plaudits for sticking to their absenteeism of Westminster up north and not breaking promises to their voters.

Now FF and FG do it and SF supporters are outraged.

Couldn't make up the hypocrisy.

Its mind boggling.

Plumbthedepths

dxhound2005 wrote: »

If they are people of principle they will put that urge for self preservation to one side, and let the electorate get the Change they really want.

I'm not being smart but self preservation once a seat is secured is all that matters to a politician. You only have to look at the behaviour of FG candidates in Mayo prior to the election. A return to the polls will be avoided at all costs.
If you feel that is not the case Paddy Power will be happy to take your money.

Plumbthedepths

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Sinn Féin get plaudits for sticking to their absenteeism of Westminster up north and not breaking promises to their voters.

Now FF and FG do it and SF supporters are outraged.

Couldn't make up the hypocrisy.

Its mind boggling.

Just wondering but do you know why they abstain?

jodome

I generally have no interest in politics (despite always voting) but this has definitely been an eye opener of an election.

I don't see another election happening (too much risk for FF and FG to lose more seats, they were the ones that were dragging up to the finish line in the end) but I don't think they will let SF get into power either.

Maybe that would suit Mary Lou just fine: by the looks of it SF didn't go into this thinking seriously they would come out on top. I would have thought their game plan was to lead the opposition and give FF/FG enough rope to hang themselves in the next few years. Now that SF have done so well there will be an expectation they show something for it.

I only hope the Greens don't walk into another disaster for the party after doing so well. Bit of a Catch-22 for them perhaps.

James Brown

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If say FFG get together, then MM will be TS. That seems to be all he wants.

Grand let him have his day in the sun. But there are issues to be solved pronto.

Could be a good thing at the end of the day. Take the wind out of SF and Left sails and FF/FG try to do what SF say they can do in a week lol.

Interesting times ahead.

Sad that SF this time around won't have to put their money where their mouths are though. Continue to snipe from the sidelines. Bet there will be sighs of relief though if they do not have to play Senior Hurling in Gov.

Hopefully FF/FG either tackle issues, great. Or are true to form and get wiped out next election. Either is good with me.

Jinglejangle69

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Just wondering but do you know why they abstain?

What does that matter??

They made a promise and they stuck to it.

Ditto FG and now they are sticking to it.

Plumbthedepths

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

What does that matter??

They made a promise and they stuck to it.

Ditto FG and now they are sticking to it.

So you have no idea, grand so. Just as an side SF voters in the north know there elected MP will not be taking their seat. FG voters did not know FG would not be seeking to walk off the pitch. They were voting for FG to be in government.

super_furry

Mad isn't it? Fine Gael and Fianna Fail specifically said that they wouldn't go into government pre-election. On that basis they got just under half the vote.

Now people are going mad because politicians won't break their word.

What about the people that voted for FF and FG because they specifically said they wouldn't enter into government with SF? Don't their votes deserve to be respected?

Jinglejangle69

Another election and let SF be the biggest party and see this change they are going about.

Bring it on.

Change change change!!

Arghus

Lads, lads, lads. They're still at the political posturing stage. This is just the hardball stage of negotiations.

James Brown

super_furry wrote: »

Mad isn't it? Fine Gael and Fianna Fail specifically said that they wouldn't go into government pre-election. On that basis they got just under half the vote.

Now people are going mad because politicians won't break their word.

What about the people that voted for FF and FG because they specifically said they wouldn't enter into government with SF? Don't their votes deserve to be respected?

Technically they are two separate parties.
I'm not in the mood of another election but sure why not.
What if we do and get the same result? Have a dance off?

White Clover

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

If say FFG get together, then MM will be TS. That seems to be all he wants.

Grand let him have his day in the sun. But there are issues to be solved pronto.

Could be a good thing at the end of the day. Take the wind out of SF and Left sails and FF/FG try to do what SF say they can do in a week lol.

Interesting times ahead.

Sad that SF this time around won't have to put their money where their mouths are though. Continue to snipe from the sidelines. Bet there will be sighs of relief though if they do not have to play Senior Hurling in Gov.

The electorate could be counting their lucky stars, and at the next election give sinn fein a hammering? All this IRA nonsense talk won't be long scattering the borrowed votes!

Bass Reeves

Politics is the art of the possible. While SF might get more seats in another election may of these would be at the expense of PBP, SD, Greens and independent's in that order. SF were slow transfering to Labour. Submit word not impact numbers to secure a left alliance.
However there is risks for SF, first if it is seen to pursue another GE as a policy it voters may turn on them. There is other risks another election on a better day might bring out more older voters that would prove FF and FG numbers. As well FF did not transfer to FG in the GE next time they might have a pact and FF might not transfer left after transfering independent's.

A large number of SF TD's would also cause an issue in that FG or FG are unlikely to accept a SF Toiseach. This could create a problem for SF in creating a government and saving face. While everyone sees a FF/SF/Gr as the most likely outcome I think a FF/SF/SD and independent's is also a viable outcome as it would create less policy issues. As well it would balance a government 50/50