Why not have another GE

votecounts

[QUOTE=Deleted User;112547047]Sinn Fein and the Left are planking themselves at the thought that they might, just might, be put in a position to put their policies into play. It’s one thing shouting from the sidelines. It’s another game putting their policies to the test![/QUOTE]
Don't where you get this from but SF have been out on day 1 trying to form a govt but when FF and FG won't even talk to you, they are screwed. I don't think it is a case of being afraid imo.

omega man

CobraClan wrote: »

So if there is another election, do you think RTE will exclude Mary Lou again from the leaders debate? Wouldn't surprise me!

They didn’t exclude her when the polls reflected their increasing popularity. Fair enough.
In hindsight she probably wished they had, she was poor. RTÉ wont go down that road again.

Jinglejangle69

votecounts wrote: »

Don't where you get this from but SF have been out on day 1 trying to form a govt but when FF and FG won't even talk to you, they are screwed. I don't think it is a case of being afraid imo.

Mary Lou said FF or FG in government would be a disaster.

Yet she is trying to form a government with them?

Spanish Eyes

Spanish Eyes wrote: »

I think we were getting there somehow with housing. It takes time really and we all know that. But the instagram generation want it NOW.

What absolute nonsense. No better than "millennials and their avocado toast." A silly soundbite designed to denegrade people who are struggling and dismiss their genuine concerns.

I'm in my mid thirties and the housing market in this country has been dysfunctional, to say the least, for almost my entire adult life. Yes I want it sorted now, because I'll need a mortgage and I don't have an infinite amount of time to get it. And I'm sick of paying rent and having no security. I'm not asking for a free house, I'm simply asking for fairness. People who work hard shouldn't be struggling to get a secure home.

FF and FG have broken the social contract and that is why the electorate gave them a kicking.

votecounts

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Mary Lou said FF it FG in government would be a disaster.

Yet she is trying to form a government with them?

ff and fg together she means, she was willing to be lead partner with either, but needed to see what sort of numbers she had on the left before doing this. Can't say she was afraid of going in to govt now.

Edgware

Jinglejangle69 wrote: »

Mary Lou said FF it FG in government would be a disaster.

Yet she is trying to form a government with them?

Don't be trying to apply logic and common sense to the situation

This is S.F.

Jinglejangle69

votecounts wrote: »

ff and fg together she means, she was willing to be lead partner with either, but needed to see what sort of numbers she had on the left before doing this. Can't say she was afraid of going in to govt now.

Haha right OK.

Keep telling yourself that.

mickdw

votecounts wrote: »

ff and fg together she means, she was willing to be lead partner with either, but needed to see what sort of numbers she had on the left before doing this. Can't say she was afraid of going in to govt now.

Why would FF agree to go into government with SF and allow SF to be leader. FF have more seats.
SF are making too much of their current situation.
They are roughly equal with the other 2 parties on seats so either of the 3 can set about forming a government.
The fact that nobody wants to touch SF puts them to the back of the field in terms of odds of forming a government. That is simple fact yet they make out as though they are being somehow excluded unfairly.

mickdw

mickdw wrote: »

Why would FF agree to go into government with SF and allow SF to be leader. FF have more seats.

Only because the Ceann Comhairle is automatically returned. SF did win the popular vote, to dismiss that is only storing up problems for the future.

JohnnyFlash

Flying Fox wrote: »

Only because the Ceann Comhairle is automatically returned. SF did win the popular vote, to dismiss that is only storing up problems for the future.

Back to the country so and let SF run more candidates.

ILoveYourVibes

_Brian wrote: »

It’s likely we’re heading to another GE.

I would prefer that to a FG /FF coalition. One half would be telling us we are lazy good for nothings the other half would be robbing us blind!

Plumbthedepths

JohnnyFlash wrote: »

Back to the country so and let SF run more candidates.

Neither FF or FG will let that happen, considering so many of their TDs barely scrapped across the line.

ILoveYourVibes

Plumbthedepths wrote: »

Neither FF or FG will let that happen, considering so many of their TDs barely scrapped across the line.

True. But they are only prolonging the inevitable.


FF and FG cannot help the housing crisis or the health service. They can't cross their rich buddies. They are stuck.

Varadkars rhetoric against welfare backfired. So what are they going to do now?

Answer: Lay low for the next five years and let it all slide further down the line.

First Up

Flying Fox wrote:

I'm in my mid thirties and the housing market in this country has been dysfunctional, to say the least, for almost my entire adult life. Yes I want it sorted now, because I'll need a mortgage and I don't have an infinite amount of time to get it. And I'm sick of paying rent and having no security. I'm not asking for a free house, I'm simply asking for fairness. People who work hard shouldn't be struggling to get a secure home.

Not dysfunctional - changing.

The traditional model of affordable private houses within easy commuting distance of everwhere is a thing of the past. Renting is here to stay.

Our home ownership rate is falling and will continue. Most of Europe has long gotten used to renting.

Wanderer78

First Up wrote:

Not dysfunctional - changing.

Its clearly obvious our housing market is highly dysfunctional, and slowly getting worse, with no clear solutions on the horizon, nobody really knows what to do about it, younger generations are in severe trouble with this one.

Peatys

Mike_C wrote: »

So FF say they won’t talk to SF because they said they would pre election. They also said they wouldn’t go back into gov with FG. The numbers therefore don’t add up for any minority gov so why not just call election no 2 now......see if the people really want change

Keep having elections till sf get the hint.

dwmcdos

SafeSurfer wrote: »

One thing consider with an enlarged Sinn Fein leading the opposition is their ability to agitate through labour disputes as many union activists seem to be also Sinn Fein members. Maybe this has been a deliberate strategy to place members in key roles within trade unions. Positions which previously would have been dominated by Labour members.

I think you'll find quite a few are disillusioned former Labour members.

First Up

Wanderer78 wrote:

Its clearly obvious our housing market is highly dysfunctional, and slowly getting worse, with no clear solutions on the horizon, nobody really knows what to do about it, younger generations are in severe trouble with this one.

The model we grew up with is unsustainable. Blame who you want but it is simply the reality of a growing population, limited land and low interest rates making rental returns a good investment.

Wanderer78

First Up wrote:

The model we grew up with is unsustainable. Blame who you want but it is simply the reality of a growing population, limited land and low interest rates making rental returns a good investment.

There's no question the financialisation of our economies has had a detrimental effect on our housing markets, only problem is now, what the hell do we do about it

woohoo!!!

It's a unique situation with 3 parties effectively tied and each one naturally wants to be top dog. If keep SF out is the priority for FFG then there's some things they need to clear about in the election campaign. That they would consider coalition with each other and that a rotating taoiseach would also be a possibility. They would also be well advised to concentrate on policy and to tone down the ra hysteria (didn't work last time so don't repeat). There would also be the issue of transfers. For example FF could say, after us vote FG, Greens, SDs in order of your preference. We've seen that vote left has worked so it will need a counter message. In other words, election pacts and Civil war politics left where it belongs, the past.

threeball

I don't know if the SF vote holds up next time round. They got a ton of protest votes from people who now faced with the actual possibility of an SF government will most likely backtrack. Especially in the light of the behaviour of some candidates post election. Their vote will hold in Dublin and border counties but elsewhere in think it's very fragile.

woohoo!!!

threeball wrote: »

I don't know if the SF vote holds up next time round. They got a ton of protest votes from people who now faced with the actual possibility of an SF government will most likely backtrack. Especially in the light of the behaviour of some candidates post election. Their vote will hold in Dublin and border counties but elsewhere in think it's very fragile.

Both parties may want to reconsider how they're going to tackle the main reasons their vote dropped and others rose, namely housing and health. Whilst SF may suffer, they have massive surpluses that can take a hit and still gain seats. Then there's the matter of running too many candidates, FF ran 4 in mine and got 1 seat.

um7y1h83ge06nx

All the criticism of FG and FF for not breaking their pre election promise to not enter coalition with SF annoys the hell out of me.

I'm not a supporter of any particularn party but I voted for FG and FF specifically to try and prevent SF being in government as I believe it would hurt our economy. If FG and FF break their promise I would be regretting how I voted. Wouldn't actually know who to vote for being honest.

Anyway surely SF entering into coalition with either of those two parties would limit this change we keep on hearing about.

First Up

Wanderer78 wrote:

There's no question the financialisation of our economies has had a detrimental effect on our housing markets, only problem is now, what the hell do we do about it

Communism?

is_that_so

woohoo!!! wrote: »

It's a unique situation with 3 parties effectively tied and each one naturally wants to be top dog. If keep SF out is the priority for FFG then there's some things they need to clear about in the election campaign. That they would consider coalition with each other and that a rotating taoiseach would also be a possibility. They would also be well advised to concentrate on policy and to tone down the ra hysteria (didn't work last time so don't repeat). There would also be the issue of transfers. For example FF could say, after us vote FG, Greens, SDs in order of your preference. We've seen that vote left has worked so it will need a counter message. In other words, election pacts and Civil war politics left where it belongs, the past.

It's not a matter of keeping them out, they have explicitly and clearly stated they cannot countenance going into government with them. That looks like an immovable red line. If we do get a functioning government out of a FF/FG arrangement expect it to go all out to nullify the SF USP, especially on the trigger issues, by borrowing their policies and modifying them.

woohoo!!!

is_that_so wrote: »

It's not a matter of keeping them out, they have explicitly and clearly stated they cannot countenance going into government with them. That looks like an immovable red line. If we do get a functioning government out of a FF/FG arrangement expect it to go all out to nullify the SF USP, especially on the trigger issues, by borrowing their policies and modifying them.

Absolutely. And the tactic for SF would be to up the game to keep the two out with the aim of getting say 50ish seats

facehugger99

SF got 9.5% in the Local Elections a matter of months ago.

To say their vote is fickle and soft is an understatement.

They may never get this high a percentage again.

Sir Oxman

Alondra Damp Publisher wrote: »

All the criticism of FG and FF for not breaking their pre election promise to not enter coalition with SF annoys the hell out of me.

I'm not a supporter of any particularn party but I voted for FG and FF specifically to try and prevent SF being in government as I believe it would hurt our economy. If FG and FF break their promise I would be regretting how I voted. Wouldn't actually know who to vote for being honest.

Anyway surely SF entering into coalition with either of those two parties would limit this change we keep on hearing about.

The criticism is not to even meet to talk, not to demand one or the other must coalesce with SF.

A well used tactic to have a go at SF ironically 4 years ago.

Wanderer78

First Up wrote: »

Communism?

what?

is_that_so

woohoo!!! wrote: »

Absolutely. And the tactic for SF would be to up the game to keep the two out with the aim of getting say 50ish seats

The only trouble for SF is that if a government proved to be as good as say 94-97 they'd drop voters, possibly quite a few. I think the 45 seats suggested in some quarters is about their limit as they can't really make inroads into that oldie vote.

Shefwedfan

facehugger99 wrote: »

SF got 9.5% in the Local Elections a matter of months ago.

To say their vote is fickle and soft is an understatement.

They may never get this high a percentage again.

FF come out and say they will up the dole and the SF vote will move...simple

is_that_so

Sir Oxman wrote: »

The criticism is not to even meet to talk, not to demand one or the other must coalesce with SF.

A well used tactic to have a go at SF ironically 4 years ago.

One can criticise someone for a position but if that position is held out of principle, it has to be respected. Those who vote for FF & FG understand that position.

Sir Oxman

is_that_so wrote: »

One can criticise someone for a position but if that position is held out of principle, it has to be respected. Those who vote for FF & FG understand that position.

I'm afraid the lessons of a mere 4 weeks ago have not been learned.
So be it.

JohnnyFlash

Shefwedfan wrote: »

FF come out and say they will up the dole and the SF vote will move...simple

Which would be a terrible promise. Our welfare bill is outrageous.

woohoo!!!

is_that_so wrote: »

The only trouble for SF is that if a government proved to be as good as say 94-97 they'd drop voters, possibly quite a few. I think the 45 seats suggested in some quarters is about their limit as they can't really make inroads into that oldie vote.

I was thinking about the rainbow government of FG, Labour and Democratic Left. A government that worked despite the right/left divide and with a few ra skeketons in the closet. Which of course tells us that policy differences and d ra as reasons not to go into government don't stack up.

First Up

Wanderer78 wrote: »

what?

I was being sarcastic.

If you think "financialisation" is the problem, the alternative is "de-financialisation" which is what communism involves - i.e. taking the market (supply/demand) out of it.

We operate a mixed economy, which all the evidence shows to be the model that works best. If you have another idea I'll be interested to hear it but if anyone thinks they voted themselves a nice cheap house, I fear they will be disappointed.

um7y1h83ge06nx

First Up wrote: »

If you have another idea I'll be interested to hear it but if anyone thinks they voted themselves a nice cheap house, I fear they will be disappointed.

You know people may actually get that but via a different avenue than they think. If SF did get into government, spook investment, borrow hard and tank the economy it would drop housing demand and hence prices.

Lending would get tighter but by heavy saving people could still be attractive to banks. It's basically what we did in 2015, bought a nice home well under what it would normally be.

However I think many people don't necessarily want cheap houses, they want free ones.

woohoo!!!

Housing and health, they're the two main issues in the next election campaign. Not right left politics, not the IRA, not Brexit. I think there's a ways to go yet b4 we get there but I think it's a mistake to refuse to talk to any party but that could all change in a couple of weeks.

Yurt2

Alondra Damp Publisher wrote: »

However I think many people don't necessarily want cheap houses, they want free ones.

How many is many? 100? 1000? 10'000?

The vast vast majority of people want to pay their way, perhaps they are fed-up with being gouged on the rental market and would like to think that the government could have policies that moderate runway purchase prices.

It's almost like some people in the country are fond of house price inflation.

boetstark

Flying Fox wrote: »

What absolute nonsense. No better than "millennials and their avocado toast." A silly soundbite designed to denegrade people who are struggling and dismiss their genuine concerns.

I'm in my mid thirties and the housing market in this country has been dysfunctional, to say the least, for almost my entire adult life. Yes I want it sorted now, because I'll need a mortgage and I don't have an infinite amount of time to get it. And I'm sick of paying rent and having no security. I'm not asking for a free house, I'm simply asking for fairness. People who work hard shouldn't be struggling to get a secure home.

FF and FG have broken the social contract and that is why the electorate gave them a kicking.

Dear flying fox, l hear what you are saying but you may not like the answer I will give you. Life holds no guarantees, you are entitled to nothing in life. If you are working and you cannot afford a house in the current climate. Sorry that's tough.
Get a better paid job or get a second job.
I was in your situation in 2001 when we moved to Ireland. Nobody intervened to help alter the market prices. I created my own affordability. Sorry if I sound harsh but that is life.

Wanderer78

First Up wrote:

If you think "financialisation" is the problem, the alternative is "de-financialisation" which is what communism involves - i.e. taking the market (supply/demand) out of it.

Life isn't black or white, this is not our reality, again our economic systems are highly complex, they are a perfect example of complex dynamic systems and processes, there's no need to be dramatising all this and saying our only options are market economies or 'communism' ffs. Yes there's plenty of evidence to support market economies are extremely powerful and highly successful, our own is a perfect example of this, but there's equal evidence to support 'inefficiencies' in the markets to supply us with all our needs, two of the most common issues being housing and health care. it's clearly obvious that the market actually isn't truly capable of supplying us with these critical needs. It's also important to realise that the fundamental belief in the markets, ideas such as supply and demand, don't always represent our reality, this being one of the major failings of neoclassical economics

First Up wrote:

We operate a mixed economy, which all the evidence shows to be the model that works best. If you have another idea I'll be interested to hear it but if anyone thinks they voted themselves a nice cheap house, I fear they will be disappointed.

There's plenty of interesting ideas out there that might just help us fill the gaps and failures, or inefficiencies of the market, sadly very few within our political institutions are interested in listening to these ideas, as they are just defaulting to the norm. Yes I do believe we re currently stuck with the idea of extremely expensive homes, and an ever growing amount of people struggling to gain access to them, as we favour ideas such as increasing asset prices, we re stuck in a loop here

Yurt2

boetstark wrote: »

Dear flying fox, l hear what you are saying but you may not like the answer I will give you. Life holds no guarantees, you are entitled to nothing in life. If you are working and you cannot afford a house in the current climate. Sorry that's tough.
Get a better paid job or get a second job.
I was in your situation in 2001 when we moved to Ireland. Nobody intervened to help alter the market prices. I created my own affordability. Sorry if I sound harsh but that is life.

Well that's a pretty useless proposal for housing unaffordability.

Thanks I guess.

#learntocode

boetstark

boetstark wrote: »

Dear flying fox, l hear what you are saying but you may not like the answer I will give you. Life holds no guarantees, you are entitled to nothing in life. If you are working and you cannot afford a house in the current climate. Sorry that's tough.
Get a better paid job or get a second job.
I was in your situation in 2001 when we moved to Ireland. Nobody intervened to help alter the market prices. I created my own affordability. Sorry if I sound harsh but that is life.

It's not just me, it's a generational problem that will come back to bite the country hard in the future. Good luck funding pensions when the government is having to subsidise the private rents of hundreds of thousands of OAPs who paid their way in life but couldn't afford to buy property.

House prices should not be many multiples of the median salary, not in a well functioning society. The 'get a better job' argument doesn't address that at all. You may have been happy to say 'tough ****, that's the market' and accept being gouged, but huge swathes of the electorate have signalled that they've had enough, and about time too.

boetstark

Yurt! wrote: »

Well that's a pretty useless proposal for housing unaffordability.

Thanks I guess.

#learntocode

Well what is the alternative. Government controlled housing market. Sit back and watch how that goes. Developers and builders no longer prepared to operate here. Rental properties shrink in number.
Buy if you can afford rent if you can't, or improve your finances, it's very simple and that is how it is in most developerd countries
Not having a cut but currently Ireland is the most entitled nationality I have come across. And unfortunately I think a lot of that is originating in our universities. Graduates are being churned out with an enhanced value of themselves and an over expectation of what they can get in life. Even Michael Dell made that point a number of years back.

Yurt2

boetstark wrote: »

Well what is the alternative. Government controlled housing market. Sit back and watch how that goes. Developers and builders no longer prepared to operate here. Rental properties shrink in number.
Buy if you can afford rent if you can't, or improve your finances, it's very simple and that is how it is in most developerd countries
Not having a cut but currently Ireland is the most entitled nationality I have come across. And unfortunately I think a lot of that is originating in our universities. Graduates are being churned out with an enhanced value of themselves and an over expectation of what they can get in life. Even Michael Dell made that point a number of years back.

You're an ideologue. And not really worth listening to.

You could have saved yourself some energy and typed 'that's just the way it is' and left it at that.

acequion

boetstark wrote: »

Dear flying fox, l hear what you are saying but you may not like the answer I will give you. Life holds no guarantees, you are entitled to nothing in life. If you are working and you cannot afford a house in the current climate. Sorry that's tough.
Get a better paid job or get a second job.
I was in your situation in 2001 when we moved to Ireland. Nobody intervened to help alter the market prices. I created my own affordability. Sorry if I sound harsh but that is life.

I totally agree with Yurt's reply to this gem of wisdom! Why bother studying hard, going to college where you study harder and pay or have your parents pay through the roof for your fees? Why bother working hard or slogging in your job, being a responsible citizen,a valuable and productive member of workforce, community and country if it's all to be told "tough luck mate" "work harder again from dawn to dusk til you drop and then it won't matter anyway."

What a crazy attitude to have towards people's genuine frustrations and expectations in a first world economy? :rolleyes::rolleyes: Is it any wonder so many of our brightest and best take to the high seas!! And for good!

logseman

boetstark wrote: »

I was in your situation in 2001 when we moved to Ireland. Nobody intervened to help alter the market prices. I created my own affordability. Sorry if I sound harsh but that is life.

except that there were interventions. Since 2001 the average mortgage rate in Ireland has never risen from 6% (see http://www.moneyguideireland.com/history-of-mortgage-rates-in-ireland.html) while it was at 14% a few years before. After the dot com boom the interest rates were depressed by central banks worldwide and have never risen to the levels prior to this century. After 20 years of people buying cheap mortgages with no significant increases in available housing it’s clear that the housing market will now be significantly less advantageous for first-time buyers.

frosty123

But if we have another election the proddy killers will win even more seats...do we really want these anarchists in power??

Yurt2

acequion wrote: »

I totally agree with Yurt's reply to this gem of wisdom! Why bother studying hard, going to college where you study harder and pay or have your parents pay through the roof for your fees? Why bother working hard or slogging in your job, being a responsible citizen,a valuable and productive member of workforce, community and country if it's all to be told "tough luck mate" "work harder again from dawn to dusk til you drop and then it won't matter anyway."

What a crazy attitude to have towards people's genuine frustrations and expectations in a first world economy? :rolleyes::rolleyes: Is it any wonder so many of our brightest and best take to the high seas!! And for good!

A word of warning, we're dealing with an extremely clever and extremely hard working boy here acequion.

You'll never meet some quite as clever and hard working - 100 percent self-made man. He built the nation all by himself wearing nothing but a sackcloth and a pair of old boots his grandpop gave him. Bill Cullen broke down in tears when he heard this man's story.

What's more, he never ever benefitted from any external economic circumstance whatsoever. Not once.

boetstark

Yurt! wrote: »

You're an ideologue. And not really worth listening to.

You could have saved yourself some energy and typed 'that's just the way it is' and left it at that.

Stay in your little island enclave boet because you would never survive in the big world outside of Ireland