Corona virus in waterford

dzilla

If we keep it under 7 a day till the end of week is that what we need to keep out of level 3?

E38E3E38E3EE33

The average number of cases in Ireland is around 60 per 100,000. For Waterford county, that equates to an average of 5 new cases every day over 2 weeks. So anything above that is not going to get us out of the woods.

If 80% of cases suffer mild symptoms, we're looking at a more restrictions to protect one person every day if we try and maintain a level of 5 new cases per day.

jimbojazz

3rd highest incidence rate now at 98.1, but yet our numbers don't seem to be increasing day on day, bit confusing, or can someone explain? Or are we in for a hit in the numbers released from today on?

kuang1

jimbojazz wrote: »

3rd highest incidence rate now at 98.1, but yet our numbers don't seem to be increasing day on day, bit confusing, or can someone explain? Or are we in for a hit in the numbers released from today on?

That's a 2 week average per 100,000.
i.e. it's a rolling average. And will only gradually change rather than suddenly.

Edit: that number should drop noticably (if numbers stay low-ish) once 14 days have passed since the day we had 22 new cases...whatever day that was... Can't remember.

E38E3E38E3EE33

The 22 cases reported on 12th of September have skewed the incidence rate. There's been 110 cases in the last 2 weeks, which is around 92 cases per 100,000.

This coming Sunday, those 22 infections are excluded and our incidence rate will hopefully drop. Not by a whole lot, but hopefully enough so that we're not being name checked in the health briefings.

sportsfan90

E38E3E38E3EE33 wrote: »

The 22 cases reported on 12th of September have skewed the incidence rate. There's been 110 cases in the last 2 weeks, which is around 92 cases per 100,000.

This coming Sunday, those 22 infections are excluded and our incidence rate will hopefully drop. Not by a whole lot, but hopefully enough so that we're not being name checked in the health briefings.

Yeah if we can keep it to 5 or less cases per day until Sunday we’ll hopefully avoid any additional restrictions for now.

Just for context, Waterford’s rate is now just short of 93 per 100k. Laois was at 69.7 when they were put in local restrictions early last month.

Junior

This reads like a F- You Pal from Dawn Meats

https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/09/23/dawn-meats-say-increase-in-cases-in-waterford-is-down-to-community-transmission/

dzilla

E38E3E38E3EE33 wrote: »

The average number of cases in Ireland is around 60 per 100,000. For Waterford county, that equates to an average of 5 new cases every day over 2 weeks. So anything above that is not going to get us out of the woods.

If 80% of cases suffer mild symptoms, we're looking at a more restrictions to protect one person every day if we try and maintain a level of 5 new cases per day.

E38E3E38E3EE33 wrote: »

The 22 cases reported on 12th of September have skewed the incidence rate. There's been 110 cases in the last 2 weeks, which is around 92 cases per 100,000.

This coming Sunday, those 22 infections are excluded and our incidence rate will hopefully drop. Not by a whole lot, but hopefully enough so that we're not being name checked in the health briefings.

Nice one thanks for clearing that up.

Harry Palmr

Junior wrote: »

This reads like a F- You Pal from Dawn Meats

https://www.wlrfm.com/2020/09/23/dawn-meats-say-increase-in-cases-in-waterford-is-down-to-community-transmission/

I'll need to see proof it's not Dawn Meats before I believe it's not them, the way the numbers jumped certainly suggests a particular cluster not generally slack standards.

i know some people a bee in their bonnet about Skelton but I'm in his corner on the whole business.

https://twitter.com/Deisesupes/status/1308722769295740928

spookwoman

Harry Palmr wrote: »

I'll need to see proof it's not Dawn Meats before I believe it's not them, the way the numbers jumped certainly suggests a particular cluster not generally slack standards.

i know some people a bee in their bonnet about Skelton but I'm in his corner on the whole business.

https://twitter.com/Deisesupes/status/1308722769295740928

Stating the obvious. The virus did have to originate from outside the plant and one of their workers brought in.

sportsfan90

spookwoman wrote: »

Stating the obvious. The virus did have to originate from outside the plant and one of their workers brought in.

Reading that Dawn statement, they may as well be saying it originated in China so has nothing to do with them.

Gael23

Looks like Waterford is heading the direction of Dublin lads

jopax

Gael23 wrote: »

Looks like Waterford is heading the direction of Dublin lads

Why, I thought we were going low numbers now

Account Number

jopax wrote: »

Why, I thought we were going low numbers now

Yes, and no. The numbers do seem to be stabilizing a bit, but that 22 case day is really screwing our 14 day incidence rate (our 10 day I think is fairly accurate though). And unfortunately, that day will still be recent enough to be relevant when NPHET makes a decision. I'd say Donegal is at more at risk than us though

Wanderer2010

If they do put Waterford on Level 3, do they have to start on a Monday or can it be effective pretty much after the government meet with the emergency team? I thought with these things they implement the advice the beginning of the following week. I could be wrong on that..

joeguevara

Wanderer2010 wrote: »

If they do put Waterford on Level 3, do they have to start on a Monday or can it be effective pretty much after the government meet with the emergency team? I thought with these things they implement the advice the beginning of the following week. I could be wrong on that..

Dublin went into Level 3 on a Friday Midnight, the day it was announced.

Wanderer2010

joeguevara wrote: »

Dublin went into Level 3 on a Friday Midnight, the day it was announced.

Cheers. Id hate to be working in the pub or hotel industry in that case. Practically zero notice and all those bookings and stock down the drain.

PTH2009

FFS

I'd say some are secretly delighted that we're going into level 3

Its not like we have 50+ cases a day

spookwoman

PTH2009 wrote: »

FFS

I'd say some are secretly delighted that we're going into level 3

Its not like we have 50+ cases a day

Here we go again. So now because no one has posted they want a lock down we secretly want it. :rolleyes:

Flow Motion

Account Number wrote: »

Yes, and no. The numbers do seem to be stabilizing a bit, but that 22 case day is really screwing our 14 day incidence rate (our 10 day I think is fairly accurate though). And unfortunately, that day will still be recent enough to be relevant when NPHET makes a decision. I'd say Donegal is at more at risk than us though

Dunno why people are so obsessive about these numbers, daily incidence rates, cases per whatever. If you must, than focus on the death rate FFS. And while you are at it focus on the deaths for suicide, road traffic accidents, cancer, alcohol abuse, heart disease, strokes over the past 6+ months since the dreaded Covid came onboard. A hell of a lot more people have died from these than C-19. Its was only a couple of weeks ago our own Tanaiste said "some people a getting a little terrorised" by the daily numbers : https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-daily-covid-numbers-5195709-Sep2020/

By all means if you want to focus on the doom & gloom narrative pedalled by NPHET go right ahead. The only numbers I would rather focus on are the Lotto and Euromillions one's! :pac:

Flow Motion

PTH2009 wrote: »

FFS

I'd say some are secretly delighted that we're going into level 3

Its not like we have 50+ cases a day

Some folk would love to go back inside I'd say. Autumn is here and Winter not
too far away. Lock themselves away till Spring. Hibernation season in their bunkers. Tinfoil hats ahoy. Stockpile the tinned goods and pasta. Plenty of bog roll too. Netflix. Smartphone. Take aways delivered. A casual observer would even go as far to say that it is an introverts "perfect storm"!;)

sportsfan90

Just because some people are more wary and realise what rising figures would mean in terms of additional restrictions does not make them “secretly delighted” if those things come to pass.

Gavlor

NPHET are meeting tomorrow to review current levels and make recommendations to govt so today’s figure for waterford will tell a lot.

With any luck it’ll be single digits and maybe give us a glimmer of hope.

Locking down all social outlets, sports and all the rest is going to put huge pressure on the people and businesses of waterford.

We can’t suppress the virus and surely can’t go on locking everything down? As bad as things have been, by the time next summer comes around there won’t be much life left in the city

E38E3E38E3EE33

Flow Motion wrote: »

Dunno why people are so obsessive about these numbers, daily incidence rates, cases per whatever. If you must, than focus on the death rate FFS. And while you are at it focus on the deaths for suicide, road traffic accidents, cancer, alcohol abuse, heart disease, strokes over the past 6+ months since the dreaded Covid came onboard. A hell of a lot more people have died from these than C-19. Its was only a couple of weeks ago our own Tanaiste said "some people a getting a little terrorised" by the daily numbers : https://www.thejournal.ie/varadkar-daily-covid-numbers-5195709-Sep2020/

By all means if you want to focus on the doom & gloom narrative pedalled by NPHET go right ahead. The only numbers I would rather focus on are the Lotto and Euromillions one's! :pac:

I understand where you're coming from, but unfortunately with the current situation we're in, we cannot plan for anything more than a few days away. If I want to travel to Cork this weekend, how can I be confident I will be able to leave the county? There's no indication from government or NPHET, so the current setup is to wait until some day in the next few days, and maybe a decision will be made, or maybe not. Maybe Cork will be locked down either, there's absolutely nothing concrete for me to make an educated decision on the probability of travelling outside the county in a few days except for looking at those numbers and trying to figure out the probability myself.

jimbojazz

less than 5 today, glimmer

spookwoman

on the list today but no number given

Harry Palmr

Well that's good news!

spookwoman

Yesterdays number is 5 not 6

Harry Palmr

Aha! Meat processing facility mentioned explicitly by Glynn.

mooseknunkle

PTH2009 wrote: »

FFS

I'd say some are secretly delighted that we're going into level 3

Its not like we have 50+ cases a day

It'll be some buzz if Waterford went into lockdown for 5/6 cases a day